Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 지표 발표 이후 급락했던 주가는 정확히 발표 전 수준으로 곧바로 회복함. 경제지표와 별개로 그 반응을 예측하는게 이처럼 어려운 일임. Stock futures -- pretty much back up where they were before the release -- are again showing how difficult it is to predict the market reaction to data.

Bottom-line: 9월 4.6%의 점도표 이후 12월 새로운 점도표를 앞두고 파월은 지침을 제공한 바가 없고, 고용시장의 탄력을 보며 시장 참여자들이 5.25%의 최종 정책금리를 책정함. Fed swaps are now penciling in a peak Fed policy rate of 5.25% in June. That’s way above the 4.6% median forecast of policymakers back in September. Remember, Powell himself on Wednesday didn’t offer a new estimate for the peak.

Bottom-line: 최종 정책금리를 5.25%로 책정하기 시작함. Fed Swaps Price in Peak Policy Rate of 5.25% in June 2023.

Bottom-line: 경제활동에 참가하려는 인구가 예상과 달리 감소하며 실업률은 상승. Labor force participation unexpectedly ticked down, and the unemployment rate moved up to 3.7%, more than expected.

Stock futures are losing their gain.

Powell gets another illustration of an “out of balance” job market. Average hourly earnings picking up, also.

Thank God It's Friday. 🏌🏼

Bottom-line: 17개 서비스 산업 종사 구매 관리자에 대한 설문 결과는 93%가 거의 모든 품목에서 전달보다 동일하거나 비싼 가격을 지불했다고 응답한 것으로 나타남. 특히 대확산 이후 인플레이션을 끌어올린 부동산 부문의 비용이 높았고, 배송지연의 문제 외에도 모든 원자재 가격 상승도 관찰됨. 이 설문이 실물을 제대로 반영하고 있다면, 10월 물가에 대한 지표 또한 넓은 범위에서의 물가 상승이 관찰 될 것임. 그리고 이는 중앙은행이 강경한 통화정책을 유지해야 할 이유를 제공할 것임. The US service sector saw widespread price rises last month. This suggests inflation is rising, and could lend to more yield curve flattening. The ISM services index of prices gained for the first time in six months. It rose 2 in October to 70.7. And gains were broad with seventeen industries reporting price jumps. More than 93% of those surveyed reported paying the same or higher prices in the month. The biggest price gains were in real estate and rental and leasing, according to today’s report. Housing, shelter and OER have been a sticky sources of inflation since the pandemic started. Prices seemed to continue to climb for commodities, including plumbing, flooring materials, floor adhesives, door locks, and bedroom and bathroom doors, according to comments from the survey panel. Delivery delays are adding to rental and real-estate related pricing woes, according to comments. If these purchasing managers are correct, next week’s October CPI report could show another broad jump in prices, particularly in the swollen housing market. That’s something that would keep the Fed on its tightening warpath.

BOE Hikes by 75 Basis Points.

이 기사 요약을 한 번 다시 읽어보십시오.

Bottom-line: 투자자들이 여전히 중앙은행의 정책선회를 기대하고, 또한 주가가 그에 맞춰 상승할 수 있음. 중앙은행은 그럴수록 강경한 발언을 통해 주가를 하락시키고자 할 것임. 결국 언젠가 최종 정책금리에 도달하고, 또 다시 금리를 인하할 수도 있지만, 그것은 이번 통화정책회의에서 발언 한 오랜 시간의 데이터에 의존할 것임. 투자자들은 계속해서 돈을 잃는 선회에 대한 상상을 멈춰야 할 것임. If stock investors want to front-run a dovish pivot, they’re welcome to do so, but all they will do is provoke more aggressively hawkish rhetoric to push share prices down again. So they’ll lose money, as many did on Wednesday, after the Fed and Chair Jerome Powell made it clear that even if rates rise more slowly in the future, the peak could be higher than anticipated. The time will come when the Fed slows down, pauses, and eventually pivots toward lower rates. But it’s the incoming economic data that will determine that, and so it’s the data that everyone will have to watch, starting with US payrolls this Friday. Investors Need to Stop Imagining Pivots That Lose Them Money.

• 사담 모든게 잘 될겁니다. 자신을 믿으십시오. I never saw a wild thing sorry for itself. A small bird will drop frozen dead from a bough without ever having felt sorry for itself. - David Herbert Lawrence

Bottom-line: 중국은 바이러스 확산 억제를 위한 정책을 강경하게 유지할 것이라 공식적으로 발표함. China’s top health body said the nation’s zero-tolerance approach remains the overall strategy to fighting Covid-19 after unverified social media posts buoyed hopes the policy would be eased. The National Health Commission convened a meeting hosted by party chief Ma Xiaowei on Wednesday to study the messages delivered during the party congress held last month. Ma said that officials must be committed to Covid Zero and the work of controlling the virus, according to a statement from the commission. “We must resolutely maintain the general approach of ‘preventing imported cases and domestic resurgence’ and the overall strategy of ‘dynamic Covid Zero’,” Ma said in the meeting, according to the statement.

“This is a devil’s bargain,” said Steve Chiavarone, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “Size of rate hikes will likely fall, but terminal rate is likely higher -- the implication is a greater number of smaller rate hikes. That is not dovish.”