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📊 Gold is pressured by the strong U.S. dollar Gold prices (XAU) declined by 0.39% on Monday, pressured by the strong U.S. dollar and rising yields on Treasury securities as investors awaited clearer signals regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) monetary policy for 2025. 👉 Possible effects for traders The market is digesting the recent meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) and the implications of less aggressive rate cuts in the coming year. Additionally, the release of data on U.S. consumer confidence, a key indicator of spending, surprised the market on Monday. Traders will watch for more information on initial jobless claims and other economic indicators at the beginning of the year to better understand the possible path of the Fed's monetary policy. Meanwhile, the incoming administration of President-elect Donald Trump is expected to bring about changes in economic policies, which could impact gold prices in the future. On Monday, November's U.S. Durable Goods Orders report showed weaker-than-anticipated figures, although orders for capital goods were slightly stronger than expected. The order for durable goods fell by 1.1% month-over-month, lower than the expected 0.3%. Meanwhile, October data was revised upwards and was at 0.8%, compared to the previous estimate of 0.3%. The orders for capital goods, excluding defence and aircraft—a proxy for capital spending, increased by 0.7% month-over-month, exceeding the expectation of 0.1%. Also, the New Home Sales revealed only a figure of 664,000 instead of the expected increase of 669,000. Moreover, the December U.S. Consumer Confidence index decreased towards 104.7, significantly lower than the anticipated increase towards 113.2. If the data continues to be weaker than expected, the Fed may consider cutting rates more willingly in 2025. XAUUSD was moving bullish during Asian and early European trading hours, trying to regain some Monday losses. Due to the lack of important news and the upcoming Christmas holidays, analysts expect low volatility in the pair this week. Sign Up Now ➡️https://tlt.ink/octa

📊 The euro declines due to the strong U.S. dollar The euro (EUR) declined slightly on Monday, as recent central bank meetings influenced the market and set expectations for different paths of interest rate reductions next year. 👉 Possible effects for traders The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced last week that it expected a more gradual decrease in interest rates compared to market expectations, causing the dollar and U.S. Treasury securities to increase significantly. Traders anticipate a decrease of 35 basis points in U.S. interest rates next year, lower than the two 25-basis-point cuts the Fed predicted last week. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market price in a more than 50% probability of a rate cut only at the Fed meeting in May. Additionally, the passing of spending legislation by the U.S. Congress on Saturday, preventing a government shutdown, has boosted investors' confidence. In an interview with the Financial Times published on Monday, Christine Lagarde, the President of the European Central Bank (ECB), stated that the eurozone was close to achieving the ECB's medium-term inflation target. In a statement released earlier in December, she emphasised that if inflation continues to decrease towards the 2% target, the central bank will further lower interest rates, as there is no longer a need to control price growth. EURUSD was declining during Asian and early European trading hours, continuing the established downward trend from previous trading sessions. Trading volumes will likely be lower this week due to the upcoming holiday period. Sign Up Now ➡️https://tlt.ink/octa

📊 AUDUSD moves sideways due to uncertainty of RBA's policy The Australian dollar (AUD) continued to move within a relatively narrow range of 0.62200–0.62600 on Monday after the announcement by the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) about considering a rate reduction. Nonetheless, more economic data will be required to confirm whether inflation has begun to slow. 👉 Possible effects for traders Although positive U.S. inflation data on Friday helped to alleviate some concerns about the pace of Federal Reserve (Fed) rate cuts next year, markets continue to anticipate cuts of 35 basis points (bps) in 2025, according to Jonas Goltermann of Capital Economics. He suggests that the U.S. (USD) dollar will continue to strengthen next year due to the U.S. economy's strength, the widening difference between U.S. interest rates and other G10 countries, and the possibility of tariff impositions by the Donald Trump administration. With Trump entering the White House in January, global central banks are being cautious in their monetary policies due to uncertainty surrounding Trump's plans regarding tariffs, taxation, and immigration policies. The minutes of the RBA December meeting revealed that the board considers it necessary to maintain a tight monetary policy. However, the minutes also indicated that the bank is open to easing the policy as early as February if the data shows an inflation slowdown. The RBA's unexpected shift toward a more accommodative stance during the meeting surprised many, and markets have subsequently increased the likelihood of a rate cut in February towards approximately 50%. Market participants fully price in a 25-bps decrease in April, with an implied rate for July at 3.85%. This more dovish RBA stance contrasts with the cautious approach of the Fed, weighing on the Australian dollar. Also, risk aversion and concerns regarding China's economic prospects put bearish pressure on AUDUSD. AUDUSD continues to move sideways during Asian and early European trading hours. Low market volatility was expected as it's Christmas Eve today. Sign Up Now ➡️https://tlt.ink/octa

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📊 Gold gains on latest U.S. PCE report data Gold (XAU) gained 1.06% on Friday as the U.S. dollar (USD) retreated from a two-year high after key U.S. inflation data rose less than expected in November. 👉 Possible effects for traders The recent increase in the price of gold is due to the U.S. dollar's decline, which has fallen to its lowest level since October 2022. The drop happened after the Federal Reserve announced that it would slow the pace of interest rate reductions in the coming year. Additionally, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reported on Friday that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index increased by an annualised 2.4% in November, slightly below the expected 2.5% increase, according to Marketwatch. However, inflation accelerated from October and was above the U.S. central bank's 2% target overall. However, even after the recent decline in the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), the price of gold has increased by 27% in 2024. 'We believe that gold's resilience is encouraging for 2025, even though important macroeconomic factors have already been taken into account. Our forecast for the fourth quarter of 2024 is $2,665 per ounce, and with gold averaging $2,666 per ounce so far this year, our new outlook for gold prices in 2025 of $2,771 per ounce represents a modest increase after a rather tumultuous year', wrote Christopher Louney, a commodities strategist at RBC Capital Markets. Today, gold continues to grow. Traders are preparing for the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report data, coming out at 3:00 p.m. UTC. Strong data will likely put downward pressure on the precious metal, while softer-than-expected data may give XAUUSD a bullish momentum. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810

📊 EURUSD rebounds on improving risk sentiment The euro (EUR) rose by 0.65% amid short-covering ahead of the holidays, fuelled by improving risk sentiment and the weakening U.S. dollar (USD). The greenback declined on surging share prices and lower Treasury yields after data showed U.S. inflation cooling and some Federal Reserve (Fed) policymakers advocated for reducing borrowing costs slowly next year. 👉 Possible effects for traders Last week, the Fed shocked the markets by projecting a more gradual pace of rate cuts ahead, sending Treasury yields and the dollar soaring. Commerce Department data on Friday revealed that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index—the Fed's preferred inflation measure—rose by 0.1% in November after an unrevised 0.2% increase in October. However, the PCE advanced by 2.4% year-on-year in November, compared with a 2.3% increase y-o-y in October, well above the U.S. central bank's 2% target. Traders are pricing in 44 basis points (bps) of rate cuts next year, slightly below two 25 bps rate cuts the Fed projected last week. The regulator lowered its forecast for rate cuts in 2025—from four reductions anticipated in September to only two expected now. The market has started to expect the next rate cut only in June 2025. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank is expected to deliver 100 bps of rate cuts by the end of the next year (ECB). The divergence in monetary policies between the Fed and the ECB may continue to pressure the euro. Today, EURUSD has been moving sideways during Asian and early European trading hours. Market participants are preparing for the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report, due at 3:00 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected reading may put bearish pressure on the pair, while milder data may help the EURUSD break above the 1.04500 resistance level. ➡️Sign Up Now ➡️ https://octa.click/iRAl5bCodpM Partner Code ➡️ 3788810