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📊 Gold rises ahead of Donald Trump's inauguration
On Friday, gold (XAU) increased by 0.74%, as the uncertainty regarding the policies of the incoming Donald Trump administration boosted the appeal of safe-haven assets. The rise occurred despite stronger-than-anticipated U.S. labour data, supporting the expectation that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may not decrease interest rates significantly this year.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The price of gold dipped briefly towards $2,663 after the nonfarm payroll (NFP) report showed 256,000 jobs added last month, exceeding the expected increase of 160,000. The unemployment rate stayed at 4.1%, matching the forecast of 4.2%. Traders now expect the Fed to lower interest rates by only 27 basis points (bps) this year, down from the previous forecast of around 45 bps rate cuts. Still, XAUUSD quickly recovered and reached its highest level since 12 December, indicating a potential weekly increase of more than 1.7%. 'Gold's price movement indicates a lack of sellers willing to sell the metal, a sentiment reinforced by the significant rise last year', said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader.
Despite a stronger-than-expected U.S. employment report, gold remained steadfast. One reason for gold's resilience may be the uncertainty surrounding President-elect Donald Trump's inauguration. David Meger, Director of Metals Trading at High Ridge Futures, explains: 'With the inauguration of President-elect Trump on 20 January approaching, investors are concerned about his plans to impose tariffs on a wide range of imports. This could lead to inflation and restrict the ability of the Fed to reduce interest rates'.
XAUUSD was moving sideways during Asian and early European trading hours. No significant events that may affect the market are expected today. 'Spot gold may retest resistance at $2,700 per ounce, a break above which could open the way towards $2,707–$2,715 range', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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📊 Euro plunges on diverging monetary policies' outlooks
The euro (EUR) lost 0.52% against the U.S. dollar (USD) and closed at a 26-month low on Friday after a better-than-expected U.S. nonfarm payroll (NFP) report pulled U.S. Treasury yields and the greenback higher.
👉 Possible effects for traders
U.S. job growth surged unexpectedly last month, with the unemployment rate dropping towards 4.1%, signalling a robust labour market at year's end. This led traders to reduce further their expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) this year. Furthermore, worries that Donald Trump's proposed import tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration restrictions could fuel inflation additionally reinforce the expectation of a less aggressive easing cycle. Indeed, the market currently prices in an almost 70% chance that the U.S. base will remain unchanged through May 2025, with the probability of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut in June just under 50%.
Meanwhile, traders have a totally different outlook on the European Central Bank's (ECB) monetary policy. They expect the ECB to deliver at least two additional 25-bps rate cuts by mid-April 2025. This massive divergence in interest rate expectations exerts downward pressure on EURUSD. However, the pair has already lost some 9% since the end of September 2024, and some traders are starting to believe that EURUSD may be undervalued, at least in the short term.
EURUSD continued to fall during Monday's Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's formal macroeconomic calendar doesn't feature any prominent events that could trigger a substantial move in EURUSD. Thus, traders may use this opportunity to take profit and close their short positions. As a result, a technical short-term rebound in EURUSD is possible. The support at 1.01970 and the resistance at 1.02540 are key levels to watch.
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3 333
📊 USDJPY declines due to strong U.S. labour data
USDJPY declined by 0.25%, while the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged on Friday following the nonfarm payroll report (NFP) release. The data indicated a higher-than-anticipated number of jobs added in the previous month, reinforcing expectations of less dovish monetary policy by the Federal Reserve (Fed).
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. dollar (USD) value increased after the Department of Labor announced that the U.S. economy added 256,000 new jobs in December, significantly surpassing the forecast of 160,000. Strong employment data indicates there is no need for the Fed to reduce interest rates rapidly. Jane Foley, Chief FX Strategist at Rabobank in London, stated that the Fed will likely reduce interest rates only once this year. However, if President Donald Trump's policies are implemented promptly, the chances for interest rate reductions may be lost entirely. During his presidential campaign, Trump suggested introducing tariffs, lowering taxes, and implementing a deportation of immigrants, which could potentially lead to rising inflation.
The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment survey revealed increased inflation expectations, strengthening the U.S. dollar. The report indicated that one-year inflation expectations rose towards 3.3% in January—the highest since May—up from 2.8% in December. Following the release, the market has started to anticipate a pause in the easing cycle at the January meeting. Analysts now expect only a 27-basis-point (bps) reduction in interest rates throughout 2025. They believe the next rate cut will likely occur at the June meeting. Meanwhile, recent events in Japan, such as the potential for continued wage growth and the impact of a weaker Japanese yen (JPY) on imported prices, have drawn the attention of central bank officials to increasing inflationary pressures. These developments have led to speculation that the central bank may adjust its price forecast upward this month.
During the Asian and early European trading hours, USDJPY continued its downward correction, which had started on Friday. Today, Respect for the Aged Day is celebrated in Japan, so analysts expect low volatility in JPY-related pairs and the continuation of previously established trends.
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Nifty Slumps Below 23,300; Sensex Plunges Over 320 Points as Market Turmoil Deepens! 📉
All sectors in red! 🔴 Oil, gas, and realty witness heavy losses, while smallcaps crumble under relentless selling pressure! 🏚️
What’s your outlook for the market? 🤔
Likely to fall further! 👍
Will bounce back soon! 😭
Too volatile to predict! 👎
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Apple has settled a lawsuit over Siri allegedly recording private conversations without consent for $95M. Affected U.S. users may receive up to $20 per device. As part of the deal, Apple must confirm it has deleted overheard recordings and clarify voice data usage for Siri improvements.
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BTCUSD, 30-minute timeframe chart
BTCUSD broke the support level of 93,800.00
👉Level explanation
BTCUSD has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 93,700.00.
Set your stop loss at 94,900.00 above the previous high ($12.00 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 92,500.00 ($12.00 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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Sunday Ki Study🎓
Learn all about recognizing common candlestick patterns 📈
Understanding these formations is key to decoding market psychology, anticipating trends, and gaining insights 🔥
Do let us know by reacting 👍 if you found this information useful.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial or investment advice.
Candlestick patterns are a tool for understanding market trends, but they do not guarantee future market behaviour. For a comprehensive understanding.
3 333
Sunday Ki Study🎓
Learn all about recognizing common candlestick patterns 📈
Understanding these formations is key to decoding market psychology, anticipating trends, and gaining insights 🔥
Do let us know by reacting 👍 if you found this information useful.
Disclaimer: The information provided is for educational purposes only and is not intended as financial or investment advice.
Candlestick patterns are a tool for understanding market trends, but they do not guarantee future market behaviour. For a comprehensive understanding,
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Market gaps happen when the opening price doesn’t match the previous day’s close. Higher open? It might be time to buy. Lower open? Could be a chance to sell. How do you trade market gaps?
Start Trading: https://bit.ly/attexpertoption
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Temporary Restriction of Services in India
Jan 10, 2025
At Bybit, our primary objective has always been to operate in full compliance with all applicable rules and regulations. Due to recent developments from Indian regulators and in continuation of previously implemented restrictions, we regret to inform you that, effective Jan 12, 2025, 8AM UTC, Indian users will temporarily be unable to open new trades or access any products on the Bybit platform. The only exception will be withdrawals, which will remain available for your convenience.
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