Geroman

#UkraineRussiaWar Ukrainian forces launched a larger attack on Crimea overnight. Several explosions were reported, and it is known that American ATACMS missiles were used. While things have quieted down towards Siversk, the offensive on the Donetsk front is gaining momentum. In Chasiv Yar, Russian forces reached the canal from the "German Forest," providing them with a significant strategic advantage. Meanwhile, heavy bombardments in Chasiv Yar continue. In Krasnohorivka, Russian forces are preparing for the next assault on Ukrainian positions, following the deployment of FAB1500 bombs and artillery. In Avdivka direction, Ocheretino Flower continues to Bloom, with Russian Forces establishing additional Zone of control. The Bloom | Heavy Bombing Of Kharkiv | Russians Outflanking Chasiv Yar | Military Summary 2024.04.30 PREMIRE: 10:30 PM GMT +3 YouTube English YouTube Russian YouTube German YouTube Serbian Odysee Rumble Military Summary Map

🏘#ЧасовЯр ВС РФ подошли к участку обороны, который решит дальнейший ход битвы за Часов Яр. Передовые отряды уже возле труб канала Северский Донец. Все же помимо переброски Кракена, туда прислали 18 бригаду НГУ (бывший 18 Славянский полк НГУ). Судя по всему теперь пытаются вытягивать уже с направления возле Тернов, где стояла ранее 18-я. 🗺Карта    🤝🏻Поддержать 📨Почта    🐈"Z-комитет"

Rus Takes 2 Key Villages, Ever Bigger Gap Ukr Lines, New Rus Airbase Kharkov Offensive; UK: Sanctions Total Fail https://theduran.com/rus-takes-2-key-villages-ever-bigger-gap-ukr-lines-new-rus-airbase-kharkov-offensive-uk-sanctions-total-fail/

ВС РФ дошли до канала Северский Донец-Донбасс и закрепились на восточной его части. Наша карта 〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️〰️ #карты 🇷🇺 Диванный генштаб

Прилетело по ВСУ под Николаевым. Фаб 3000? Первый народный ✅

Главное из сводки Минобороны РФ:   ⚔️Подразделения группировки войск «Запад» нанесли поражение живой силе и технике 30-й, 63-й мбр, 57-й мпбр ВСУ и 12-й брСпН, отражены пять контратак, противник потерял до 90 военнослужащих; ⚔️Подразделениями «Южной» группировки войск нанесено огневое поражение живой силе и технике 30-й, 93-й мбр, 80-й, 92-й дшбр, 46-й аэбр ВСУ и 241-й брТРО, потери противника составили до 440 военнослужащих; ⚔️Подразделения группировки войск «Центр» нанесли поражение формированиям 23-й, 115-й мбр и 92-й шбр, отражены девять контратак, ВСУ потеряли до 145 военнослужащих; ⚔️Подразделения группировки войск «Восток» нанесли поражение живой силе и технике 72-й мбр ВСУ и 123-й брТРО, потери ВСУ составили до 100 военнослужащих; ⚔️Подразделениями группировки войск «Днепр» нанесено поражение скоплениям живой силы 65-й мбр ВСУ и 36-й брмп, противник потерял свыше 20 военнослужащих; ⚔️Средствами ПВО сбиты десять украинских БЛА.

if that map is correct - Russians took all important heights east of that sector of the canal.

This analysis is a long-term prediction, which will take the rest of the spring and part of the summer. Furthermore, it does not take into account the development that may exist on other fronts, so the magnitude of Russian advances is difficult to calculate. However, it will not have the same relative ease as capturing Ocheretyne. The Ukrainian army is sending many reinforcements to this area to stop the Russian advances that will eventually slow down, in addition to the Ukrainian defenses built. Possibly we are talking about the Russian offensive horizon this year after which there will be a return to the Russian defensive posture in order to recover from wear and tear. On the other hand, the arrival of American aid would give a new boost to the Ukrainian army to prepare counteroffensives on several fronts and recover as much as possible from the losses suffered in recent months. However, the situation of its forces is worsening day after day, especially due to the troop problems that it is suffering and that the new mobilizations will have to solve if the Ukrainian government really wants to continue the conflict for several more years in optimal conditions.

These advances would leave the Ukrainian agglomerations of Toretsk, Niu-York & Scherbynivka in a kind of semi-encirclement in which only one supply route would remain. The capture of Chasov Yar in the following months by the Russian army (4) would leave the Ukrainian troops in a critical situation, at a time when Russian troops would surely begin to attack Niu-York (5) pushing them from the defense lines 2014.

Part 2: After Kalynove Russian advance will continue northwards reaching the town of Zoria (1). The natural barrier of the Kleban-Byk reservoir lake will prevent Russian troops from advancing further due to the danger that Ukrainian Army could easily bombard them from Kostiantynivka. The situation must be unblocked by advancing along the H-32 highway, located in the high area at the same time that the Russian forces consolidate and expand control over the highway crossing (2). This advance will possibly be the most complex given the extensive defenses that the Ukrainian command has been preparing there for months, since its capture would mean reaching the southwestern outskirts of Kostiantynivka (3).