The 3rd Wave
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DISCLAIMER :- I'm not a SEBI registered analyst, all my views and charts are only for educational purposes. I'm not responsible for any kind of Loss or I have no share in your Profits. Before taking any position consult your financial advisor.
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MAK Capital Weekly Summary
View: Neutral to Slightly Bearish
CMP: 24,175
Market Structure: Recovery → Consolidation → Rejection Near Resistance | Short-Term Lower Highs | Major Support Still Intact
Candlestick Pattern: Bearish Candle – The latest weekly candle reflects continued selling pressure and profit booking near resistance. No confirmed breakdown yet, but the short-term structure has weakened.
RSI (Weekly): 49.17 – RSI has slipped below 50, indicating weakening momentum. A move back above 50–55 is required for stronger bullish confirmation.
MACD (Weekly): Positive but Flattening – MACD remains relatively supportive, but momentum is slowing. A fresh expansion is needed to confirm renewed upside strength.
Accumulation Zone: 23,900–24,050 on dips
Weekly Stop Loss: 23,893 on closing basis
Resistance: 24,344 → 24,700 → 24,772 → 25,200
Support: 23,893 → 23,400 → 23,000
Targets:
Short Term: 24,344–24,772
Medium Term: 25,200–25,823
Long Term: 26,172–26,370
Strategy
The weekly chart requires a little more caution compared to the previous weeks.
Momentum has weakened, RSI has slipped below 50, and the latest candles show selling pressure near resistance.
However, the structure has not broken down yet. As long as Nifty holds above 23,893, the current move can still be treated as consolidation within the broader recovery.
A decisive weekly close above 24,344 would be the first sign of improvement, while a breakout above 24,700–24,772 would confirm renewed bullish momentum.
Until then, the preferred strategy should be selective buying on dips and avoiding aggressive chasing near resistance.
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Darling of Dalal Street. Below the moving average after 2009. Those who understand charts know the importance. Those who don't understand still can imagine the importance.
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Keep a Deep watch
Gayatri Projects CMP 22
View invalidation below 17.50
Turning positive on fundamentals & Technicals front.
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TD POWERSYS
Just One flip in 6 years.
MAK Trending Impulse Indicator works on every Time Frame. But best results on the weekly Time Frame ( Investment time frame)
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Positional Swing Stocks
AKUMS CMP 770
STRICT SL 724
TGT 860-980
INDIA GLYCOL CMP 1191
STRICT SL 1090
TGT 1385-1580-2050
RISHABH CMP 700
STRICT SL 663
TGT 890-1030-1710
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🥇 GOLD — ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌊 WHERE ARE WE?
Gold completed a powerful Cycle Wave 1 rally to ~5,420 (all-time high). It's now correcting in Wave 2 — an A-B-C structure. Wave A bottomed near 4,077, and we're currently in Wave B (C) — a corrective bounce testing 5,104–5,420 resistance. RSI shows bearish divergence, warning this bounce lacks strength.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🚨 LINE IN THE SAND
➡️ 5,420 must NOT be crossed
❌ Break above = Wave 2 count fails, bullish continuation instead
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 KEY LEVELS
🔴 Resistance: 5,104–5,420 (Wave B top zone)
🟡 Watch: Below 4,850 confirms Wave C underway
📉 Wave C Target: 3,444–3,945 (prior Wave 4 zone)
🚀 Post-Correction Target: New ATH beyond 5,420 (Wave 3)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📊 SCENARIOS
✅ Primary (65%) — Wave B rejects near 5,104–5,420 → sharp Wave C decline toward 3,444–3,945 → then powerful Wave 3 rally to new highs
🟡 Extended Top (20%) — Wave B stretches closer to 5,420 before turning down — same eventual target
⚠️ Invalidation (15%) — Close above 5,420 → Wave 2 fails, bullish continuation directly
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💡 BOTTOM LINE
Gold is likely completing a corrective bounce before a sharper Wave C decline toward 3,444–3,945 — a high-probability accumulation zone. Once Wave 2 completes, the long-term structure favors a powerful rally to fresh all-time highs. 🙏
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Consult your SEBI-registered advisor before investing.
Mandarr A Kashikar
📊 MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together
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📊 Mandarr's Market Take — Inter-Market P&F Ratios
Nifty 50: 24,252 (+0.08%) — consolidating below CB (24,268), needs fresh up-column to signal strength.
Gold/Nifty: 6,697.92 (+1.81%, +4.6% CL) — sharp up-column off 19/08 low, testing CB (6,698). Gold reasserting over equities.
Gold/Silver: 658.72 (+0.51%) — same structure, at CB (659). Confirms genuine safe-haven bid, not just a metals rally.
Bonds/Equity (GS Composite/Nifty): 129.66 (-0.12%) — longer up-trend intact, latest column a pause, not a reversal.
Read: Gold strengthening vs both Nifty and Silver together is the key signal — money quietly rotating to safety. Bonds > equity trend still holding. Nifty itself range-bound, undecided.
Mandarr A Kashikar
MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together
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🇮🇳 NIFTY 50 — ELLIOTT WAVE ANALYSIS
📅 22 August 2026 | 📍 24,252.00
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🌊 WHERE ARE WE?
Wave ④ correction completed near 21,600 in April 2026. Since then, Wave (1) rallied to ~24,600, and Wave (2) has now completed its correction near 23,100–23,400. We are now in the early stages of the powerful Wave (3) rally.
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🚨 LINE IN THE SAND
➡️ 23,106 should hold
❌ Break below 22,727 = Wave ④ count in question
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
🎯 KEY LEVELS
🔴 Support: 23,106–23,392 (Wave 2 low zone)
🟡 Confirmation: Close above 24,600 (Wave 1 high)
📈 Target 1: 25,067 (Wave 3=1 equality)
🚀 Target 2: 25,969 (Wave 3 extended)
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
📊 SCENARIOS
✅ Bull (65%) — Wave (3) in progress, channel intact → breakout above 24,600 → 25,067–25,969
🟡 Channel Retest (20%) — Minor pullback toward 23,700–23,900 within Wave (3), still bullish
⚠️ Risk Case (15%) — Break below 23,106, alert below 22,727 → count needs revision
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
💡 BOTTOM LINE
Wave (2) is complete. Wave (3) — the strongest leg — is underway, targeting 25,000–26,000. As long as 22,727 holds, the bullish structure remains firmly intact. 🙏
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
⚠️ For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Consult your SEBI-registered advisor before investing.
Mandarr A Kashikar
📊 MAK Capital — Growing Wealth Together
