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Дописи каналу
| 2 | DXY 102.4 | 1 |
| 3 | 🚨 MY MARKET OUTLOOK: DOLLAR, GOLD, BONDS, STOCKS, AND CRYPTO.
I continue to closely monitor developments in the US economy, and I currently see several important signals that investors and crypto traders cannot afford to ignore.
📌 The dollar remains the primary risk
The DXY has approached the 102 mark and appears poised for further gains.
If the dollar index manages to hold above this level, a move toward the 105–108 range is quite possible in the coming months.
Historically, a strong dollar puts pressure on:
gold;
commodities;
cryptocurrencies;
growth stocks.
That is precisely why I continue to keep a close eye on DXY dynamics.
🏛 Bond yields — the key indicator for all markets
In my view, it is currently more important to watch US bond yields than media headlines.
The yield on 10-year bonds has risen above 5%, having recently touched 5.34%.
This means investors are once again earning a high risk-free return.
When one can earn over 5% on US government bonds, capital inevitably begins to flow out of riskier assets.
Therefore, rising yields remain a major headwind for stocks and crypto.
⚠️ Signs of stagflation are emerging
I am particularly concerned by the simultaneous convergence of several factors:
producer prices are rising;
the labor market is beginning to cool;
unemployment is gradually increasing.
This is already reminiscent of the early signs of a stagflationary scenario. Stagflation is dangerous because it places the Federal Reserve in a difficult position:
fighting inflation hurts the economy;
supporting the economy risks accelerating inflation.
📈 Why the stock market is holding up for now
Despite all the risks, US indices remain near all-time highs.
However, a deeper look reveals a less robust situation.
The bulk of the gains is driven by a handful of major tech companies.
Beneath the surface, the market picture is much weaker.
Most stocks are already underperforming the index.
This indicates that the market is becoming increasingly dependent on a limited number of leaders.
🔍 A narrow market is a signal that cannot be ignored
When an index rises thanks to just a few companies while the majority of stocks lag behind, the market becomes more vulnerable.
Similar patterns have been observed in past cycles prior to major corrections.
I am not saying a crash is inevitable, but risks are gradually mounting.
🥇 My thoughts on gold
As long as the dollar and yields remain high, it will be difficult for gold to show sustained growth.
Rising real rates traditionally put pressure on precious metals.
Therefore, I do not rule out a continued correction for gold in the coming months.
₿ What this means for the crypto market
The situation for crypto is mixed.
On one hand:
a strong dollar;
high bond yields;
expensive liquidity.
These are bearish factors.
But there is another side to the story.
If the economy begins to slow significantly, the market will sooner or later start pricing in future Fed policy easing.
Historically, such moments have often served as the starting point for major rallies in Bitcoin and the crypto market as a whole. 🎯 What I’m watching right now
For me, the key indicators remain:
DXY.
US 10-year bond yields.
Labor market data.
Stock market breadth.
Capital flows into risk assets.
📌 In my view, we are at a critical juncture in the market.
The dollar is strengthening, bond yields are at extreme levels, and the stock market is being propped up largely by a handful of tech giants.
As long as 10-year bond yields remain above 5%, pressure on stocks and crypto is likely to persist.
However, if the economy continues to cool and yields begin to fall, the situation could change rapidly. In that scenario, Bitcoin and high-quality crypto assets could be among the primary beneficiaries of an eventual shift in monetary policy. | 1 |
| 4 |  Немає тексту... | 1 |
| 5 |  BTC 01.10.2026 | 2 |
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| 10 |  BTC | 4 |
| 11 |  BTC | 2 |
| 12 | 🚨THE FED'S MAIN PROBLEM NOW IS TARIFFS + OIL + INFLATION + BOND YIELD
Trump threatened to halt trade with countries with which the US has a trade deficit unless the Fed cuts rates. (Reuters)
📌In essence, the White House is increasing pressure on the Fed through the threat of a new trade escalation.
But here a paradox arises.
Tariffs could further accelerate inflation.
Tariffs make imports more expensive, prices rise, inflation rises, and the Fed gets even more reasons to keep rates high.
And the situation is already dire:
🛢 Oil above $100
📈 10-year Treasury yield near 5%
📌Inflation remains above the Fed's target
📌The market expects a 0.25% rate hike at the current meeting. (Reuters)
It's a real conflict:
Trump demands cheap money.
Tariffs are fueling inflation.
Inflation is forcing the Fed to tighten.
📌 The market is expecting a rate cut.
The Fed, on the contrary, is preparing to raise rates.
And the more the White House puts pressure on the Fed, the more important the issue of the American central bank's independence becomes.
This is also a critical moment for BTC.
📌If the Fed signals further tightening, pressure on risk assets could intensify.
And if the hike is a one-off and the Fed hints at a pause, the market could experience a powerful relief rally.
Now the battle is no longer just over the rate.
There is a struggle over the direction of liquidity. | 3 |
| 13 |  BTC | 3 |
| 14 | 🚨LAWS DON'T BUY BITCOIN.
📌 (MiCA is an analog of the Clarity Act in Europe)
Any asset grows when new capital flows into it.
MiCA didn't print money, didn't lower interest rates, or force funds to buy Bitcoin.
It merely created clearer rules for crypto companies in Europe.
📌 Regulation ≠ new capital.
As for whales.
Large funds, ETFs, and early investors did indeed begin accumulating positions well before the current price of 53k.
Therefore, it's important to understand their motivations.
When an asset has already risen significantly, a major player doesn't necessarily need to buy from the crowd at a high price. Sometimes, it's much more profitable to sell to them against the backdrop of extremely positive expectations. This is why experienced traders are wary of headlines like:
"BTC at $92,000" 🚀 (400k😁)
"the bottom has already been formed"
⚠️ A loud narrative doesn't necessarily mean an influx of new capital.
After the implementation of MiCA, the market saw a redistribution of activity among licensed players rather than a guaranteed explosive influx of new money into crypto assets.
Yes, some institutional capital continues to enter.
But claiming that the largest players are only just starting to buy Bitcoin would be overly simplistic.
📌Therefore, the main question for the market isn't:
"What law was passed?"
But:
"How much new capital is actually entering the market, and who are the buyers now?"
Because ultimately, it's not laws and headlines that move the market—it's money that moves the market. | 2 |
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| 16 |  BTC | 2 |
| 17 |  BTC | 2 |
| 18 | Speculators who bought Bitcoin in the $78,000–$82,000 range may face a serious test of their mettle. After a rapid rise, the market appears overheated, and the correction could drag on longer than many expect. | 4 |
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