Macro Trader

Powell: 장기간 높은 물가가 지속 될 경우 물가에 대한 기대 또한 높은 상태에 머무를 위험이 있음. The longer that high inflation remains, the greater the danger that will become “entrenched” in inflation expectation.

Powell: 또한, 인플레이션이 진정되고 있다는 확신을 위해서는 더 많은 데이터가 필요함. Inflation data for October and November show a welcome reduction, but it will take more evidence to give confidence that inflation is on a downward path.

Powell: 노동시장은 여전히 과열된 상태에 있음. “The labor market remains extremely tight.”

Powell: 아직 더 할일이 많이 남아있음. “We’ve covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening so far are yet to be felt, even so we have more work to do.”

Implication: 11월 성명문은 온화했지만, 기자회견은 강경했음. 반대로 이번에 성명문은 강경했으므로, 결국 기자회견을 지켜보도록 아직 잠들지 말 것. So, at the November meeting we had a dovish interpretation of the statement and then a pretty hawkish press conference. Today we’ve had a hawkish statement. We’ll see what the press conference holds!

Bottom-line: 새롭게 제시 된 경제전망은 기본적으로 중앙은행이 내년도 경기침체를 예상하고 있음을 암시함. 실업률 1% 포인트 상승과 2~3개 분기 성장률 수축은 파월이 기대하는 연착륙과 달리 경기침체에 해당함. Looking at the median forecasts for economic growth and the jobless rate, Fed policymakers are basically predicting a recession. A 0.5% gain for GDP in the fourth quarter of next year compared with the current quarter could easily incorporate two or three quarters of contraction. And the jobless rate rising by almost 1 percentage point -- that’s an outlook that is pretty consistent with a recession. So Powell may say they’re still hoping for a softish landing. But basically the Fed is projecting a recession.

implication: 내년 금리인하를 할 수도 있다는 기대를 지움. Recall that in September, the median was just barely at 4.6 for 2023. This move in the consensus is good news for Powell, and will likely dispel some concerns about some more dovish members of the FOMC potentially calling for cuts to start next year.

The Federal Open Market Committee raised its benchmark rate by 50 basis points to a 4.25% to 4.5% target range. Policymakers projected rates would end next year at 5.1%, according to their median forecast, before being cut to 4.1% in 2024 -- a higher level than previously indicated.

Bottom-line: 물가지표가 발표되기 바로 직전에 대량으로 유입 된 국채매수와 관련하여 사전에 정보가 유출 된 것 아니냔 의문에 그런 일은 있을 수 없다고 공식적으로 답변함. 오히려 시장 참여자들이 사소한 움작임에도 과민하게 반응하고 있다고 지적함. US government officials said they were not aware of any early leaks of closely watched inflation data Tuesday, following a surge of Treasuries buying that took place seconds before the report was released. President Joe Biden’s press secretary, Karine Jean-Pierre, told reporters she was not aware of any leaks coming out of the White House, and suggested observers were reading too much into the market moves. “I can tell you this: There were no leaks from here,” Jean-Pierre said Tuesday. “I can tell you definitively, or at least I’m not aware of any leaks.”. “People may be reading a little bit too much into this,” she added. Jean-Pierre described the jump in asset prices as “minor market movements.” 

미안.

Traders Beware, the Fed is watching this Rally. 🥶

Bottom-line: 물가지표 발표 이후 시장 참여자들이 생각하는 중앙은행의 통화정책 경로가 하루 사이 바뀌었음. 어제(파란색) 대비 오늘(노란색)이 더 낮게 내려감. There’s a big shift in investor expectations for the Fed’s rate path from yesterday (blue) to today (yellow).

Bottom-line: 물가에도 안도감을 가지니 이제 노동시장으로 시각이 옮겨가는데, 임금이 과열에서 벗어나려면 서비스업과 같이 노동력이 부족한 곳에서 공급이 생겨야 하는데, 이 부분을 어떻게 해소해 나갈지는 여전히 의문임. That’s a very interesting point from Ellen Zentner on the labor market coming back into focus. One issue there is wages, especially for sectors still experiencing worker shortages, such as services. It’s tough to see how we’re going to have a slowdown in wage growth there, unless something drastically changes with the labor supply.

Here’s a breakdown of the top-line contributors to the US core CPI number of 0.2% MoM.

US equity futures still in the green, with the contracts tied to the S&P 500 surging as much as 3%, while Nasdaq 100 futures have jumped as much as 4%.

Used cars were finally a negative contributor to annual inflation growth!

Bottom-line: 통화정책회의에서 인플레이션에 대한 실질적인 증거를 찾고 있다고 발언했는데, 2개월 연속 하락이 그에 충분한지 알 수 없지만, 적어도 이에 압박을 받을 것임. Powell noted at the end of November that he’s looking for “substantially more evidence” to be certain that inflation is actually declining. I don’t know if this second straight month of declines will be enough to meet that standard, but he’ll surely be pressed on that at the briefing.