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EURUSD, 1-hour timeframe chart
EURUSD retested the resistance level of 1.03580
👉Level explanation
EURUSD has been under buying pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved up to the resistance level of 1.03580.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Sell order at 1.03536.
Set your stop loss at 1.04031 above the previous high ($4.96 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 1.03040 ($4.96 profit for 0.01 lot).
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🚀 Gold plunges due to strong U.S. economic data
Gold (XAU) decreased by 0.7% on Friday due to better-than-expected U.S. economic data and strengthening U.S. dollar (USD).
👉 Possible effects for traders
On Friday, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) published the data on the index of business activity in the manufacturing sector. The index rose towards 49.3 in December, up from 48.4 in November. The number was higher than expected by experts and analysts and helped strengthen the U.S. dollar during Friday's trading session. Thus, XAUUSD decreased as the appeal of safe haven gold decreased.
The geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and its dynamic could contribute to a shift in the market demand for gold. On Sunday, Israel and Hamas discussed the possibility of ending the conflict and releasing the hostages. However, the conflict continues to unfold, and Palestinian officials stated that the Israeli airstrikes over the weekend resulted in the loss of more than 100 people. Thus, escalating tensions will support the demand for XAUUSD, while a truce and the end of the conflict will put downward pressure on gold.
During the Asian session, XAUUSD continued to decline, pulling back from the resistance level of $2,640. The pair may continue its downward movement today. Market participants anticipate the price to decline towards $2,620 and even lower. Alternatively, the price may attempt to break above the $2,640 resistance level, although this is unlikely. Markets now await the release of U.S. labour data on Friday, which may determine XAUUSD's trend.
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🚀 EURUSD rises ahead of the eurozone CPI report
The euro (EUR) grew by 0.41% on Friday as market participants awaited important economic data releases this week, including the eurozone inflation data on Tuesday and the U.S. nonfarm payroll (NPF) report on Friday.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Investors now await the much-anticipated U.S. NFP data on Friday, which is expected to offer further insight into the state of the world's largest economy. This week, several Federal Reserve (Fed) officials will also give speeches, likely reiterating their previous statements that the battle against inflation isn't over. Additionally, the uncertainty surrounding the policies of the incoming Donald Trump administration has enhanced the U.S. dollar as a safe haven asset for investors. Given that the inauguration of President-elect Trump is scheduled for 20 January, markets are approaching the incoming administration with caution due to uncertainties regarding potential plans for tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration restrictions. Still, the U.S. dollar strengthened in anticipation of the new government.
Meanwhile, the outlook on the euro is weaker and may be affected by U.S. reports and news. This year, the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to implement more rate cuts than the Federal Reserve (Fed). Traders anticipate that the ECB will reduce its base rate by 100 basis points (bps) by the end of the year, with a slight possibility of 50 bps of reductions from the Fed. Other factors influencing EURUSD currency include uncertainties such as the ongoing budget discussion in France and forthcoming elections in Germany.
EURUSD was growing during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, the German Consumer Price Index (CPI) data comes out at around 1:00 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected reading should be taken as bullish for the EUR, while lower data may trigger a bearish correction in the pair.
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🚀 AUDUSD grows ahead of important reports this week
On Friday, the Australian dollar (AUD) increased by 0.21% in anticipation of Wednesday's Australian monthly Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and Friday's U.S. nonfarm payroll report this week.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Data on November CPI will help to refine predictions for Q4 2024, which could be critical in determining whether the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will lower interest rates in February. According to a Reuters survey of economists, headline inflation is expected to increase towards 2.3% annually in November, compared to 2.1% in the previous month. ‘Markets may react strongly to higher headline figures, especially after the recent jobs report’, said Stephen Wu, senior economist at the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. However, he notes that the RBA will mostly focus on underlying inflation data. Wu projects that the closely monitored trimmed mean measure would be at a quarterly rate of 0.6%, below the RBA's forecast.
Currently, markets are pricing in a 55% probability that the RBA will reduce its cash rate in February, with almost a 100% chance of a 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut by April. By the end of 2025, Australian interest rates are projected to be approximately 3.55%, compared to 3.95% expected from the Federal Reserve. The market awaits more Australian economic data to understand the interest rate path. The Retail Sales report will be released on Thursday, and economists anticipate a substantial increase of 0.9% in November, which can be attributed to Black Friday sales. However, it's unclear if the expected increase indicates a sustainable recovery in consumer demand.
AUDUSD was rising during Asian and early European trading hours. Tomorrow, market participants will be closely monitoring the U.S. ISM Services Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data report, coming out at 3:00 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected number should be taken as negative for the AUDUSD, while lower data may support the pair and continue the recent bullish correction.
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