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6 062
📊📊Gold rebounds on new tariff threat
The gold price (XAU) fell by 0.86% on Friday as resilient U.S. economic data weakened the appeal of safe-haven assets, even as geopolitical and trade tensions escalated.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Markets reacted strongly after former U.S. President Donald Trump announced a planned increase in tariffs on steel and aluminium imports from 25% towards 50% starting 4 June. The move reignites concerns over a global trade war, particularly as legal challenges to Trump's previous tariff actions continue to unfold. An appeals court recently allowed the lawsuit to proceed, overruling an earlier decision by the Court of International Trade to pause the tariffs. This has added legal uncertainty to the economic situation.
Adding to the market volatility, Trump accused China of breaching a tariff ceasefire brokered in early May. Beijing denied the accusation, alleging reciprocal U.S. violations. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks surged after a Ukrainian drone strike reportedly destroyed over 40 Russian military aircraft, prompting a retaliatory missile and drone barrage. The escalation occurred just ahead of scheduled peace negotiations in Istanbul, heightening further uncertainty in markets grappling with rising protectionism and legal ambiguity surrounding U.S. trade policy.
XAUUSD rose above $3,320 during Asian and early European trading sessions as Trump's new tariff threat spurred demand for safe-haven assets. Today, investors should await comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell at 5:00 p.m. UTC for more clues on the U.S. interest rate path.
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6 062
📊📊Euro holds firm amid escalating trade tensions
Today, the euro (EUR) has risen by 0.29% as escalating trade tensions have weighed on investor confidence.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The euro's rise followed former U.S. President Donald Trump's announcement that tariffs on steel and aluminium imports would be doubled towards 50% starting June 4. The announcement renewed fears of a protracted trade conflict. Meanwhile, Beijing has strongly rejected Trump's accusations that China violated a trade agreement struck last month in Geneva. The conflict cast doubt on the immediate prospects for diplomatic engagement between the two largest economies.
Despite the renewed tension, National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett suggested that a meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could still occur this week, leaving the door open for dialogue. Meanwhile, markets are focusing on several key U.S. economic indicators, with particular focus on Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report. The report could provide critical insights into the economic implications of changing trade dynamics. The data will also help determine whether the recent pressure on the U.S. dollar is transitory or marks the beginning of a broader reassessment of U.S. economic risks.
Today, traders should closely monitor developments surrounding U.S. trade tariffs and the peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. The U.S. will release several economic reports that may increase volatility. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) will come out at 2:00 p.m. UTC and may affect the euro. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.13500 and support at 1.11400.
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6 062
🔽 USDJPY falls as investors seek refuge in safe assets
The Japanese yen (JPY) advanced towards approximately 143.500 on Monday, marking its third consecutive session of gains.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The rally in the Japanese yen was driven largely by renewed concerns over protectionist policies after former U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to double tariffs on steel and aluminium imports towards 50%, effective 4 June. These developments reignited fears of a broader trade conflict, prompting investors to reduce positions in riskier assets and seek stability in traditional safe havens like the yen.
The tariff announcement had immediate sectoral implications, putting pressure on Japanese steelmakers. JFE Holdings and Kobe Steel saw increased investor caution due to their potential exposure to the U.S. market and rising input costs. However, Nippon Steel remained relatively resilient, buoyed by Trump's favourable comments on its proposed merger with U.S. Steel—an endorsement that provided some insulation from the broader industry headwinds. Meanwhile, escalating U.S.–China tensions added to global uncertainty, with Beijing firmly rejecting Trump's claim that it had violated a recent trade agreement signed in Geneva.
USDJPY fell during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, market participants will closely monitor the U.S. ISM Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index report at 2:00 p.m. UTC. A higher-than-expected reading may push USDJPY higher, while softer data will put additional bearish pressure on the pair.
6 062
📊📊BTC retreats from all-time high of $111,980, but remains resilient
Bitcoin (BTC) fell by 1.7% on Thursday.
👉Possible effects for traders
Bitcoin's fundamental outlook remains robust, underpinned by growing institutional engagement and increasing strategic adoption by sovereign entities. Notably, open futures positions have surpassed $15 billion. This signals increasing participation from professional and institutional investors, viewing Bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier and a hedge against macroeconomic risks. Further validating Bitcoin as a recognised financial asset, the U.S. government created a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve—currently valued at approximately $20.4 billion—which marks a significant endorsement of its long-term store-of-value proposition and geopolitical relevance.
Despite these structural tailwinds, near-term market dynamics may introduce heightened volatility. The upcoming expiration of approximately $10 billion in Bitcoin options poses a potential inflection point, as large open interest around key strike prices can amplify price swings. While such derivative-driven movements may cause short-term dislocations, they don't detract from the strengthening macro fundamentals. As institutional infrastructure grows and sovereign interest deepens, Bitcoin continues to solidify its position as a core asset within the evolving global financial ecosystem.
BTCUSD rose slightly during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should focus on two U.S. reports: the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index at 12:30 p.m. UTC and the University of Michigan (UoM) Consumer Sentiment data at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The report may spur volatility and shed light on potential shifts in U.S. monetary policy. Key levels to watch are support at $104,600 and resistance at $106,800.
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6 062
📊📊Shrinking U.S. economy lifts euro
The euro (EUR) increased by 0.69% on Thursday after official data confirmed the U.S. economy shrank in Q1—the first contraction in three years.
👉Possible effects for traders
The economic slowdown poses new challenges for the Federal Reserve (Fed), which must balance supporting growth with persistent inflation pressures. While a downturn typically bolsters the case for easing monetary policy, uncertainty around inflationary dynamics—especially in the context of trade policy—may temper expectations for an imminent rate cut.
Adding to market volatility, the U.S. dollar (USD) initially rallied on Thursday following a federal court ruling that deemed President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariffs unlawful. However, those gains reversed after an appeals court reinstated the tariffs, reigniting uncertainty over trade policy and inflation.
EURUSD started to decline during Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders are closely watching the release of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index data at 12:30 p.m. UTC, the Fed's preferred inflation measure. The report could offer clues as to whether reinstated tariffs are feeding through to consumer prices, potentially shaping the central bank's next move.
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6 062
📊📊Gold Rebounds on Thursday
The gold price (XAU) rose by 0.91% on Thursday, driven by renewed market uncertainty. The rebound followed a U.S. federal appeals court decision to temporarily uphold President Trump’s expansive tariff policy.
👉Possible effects for traders
This ruling came just one day after the U.S. Court of International Trade had blocked trade tariffs, citing procedural issues in their implementation. The legal back-and-forth surrounding trade policy reignited safe-haven demand for bullion amid potential trade disruptions and rising geopolitical tension.
Comments from central bank officials added to the cautious sentiment. San Francisco Federal Reserve (Fed) President Mary Daly reaffirmed the Fed's March projection of two potential rate cuts in 2025. However, she stressed that maintaining the current policy rate remains prudent for the near term. Daly emphasised the importance of anchoring inflation expectations, signalling the Fed's commitment to returning inflation sustainably to its 2% target before easing further. The combination of legal tensions and cautious central bank guidance supported gold's appeal as a hedge against both economic and policy uncertainty.
XAUUSD fell below $3,310 during Asian and early European trading sessions, positioning the precious metal for a weekly decline exceeding 1%. Investor sentiment turned risk-averse ahead of the upcoming U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index report today at 12:30 p.m. UTC. The Fed will closely watch the PCE data as it could offer important insights into the future path of U.S. interest rates.
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6 062
📊Gold drops after upbeat U.S. consumer confidence data
The gold (XAU) price fell sharply by 1.24% on Tuesday after the better-than-expected U.S. consumer confidence data.
👉Possible effects for traders
U.S. consumer confidence rebounded in May, rising sharply from near five-year lows, reflecting renewed optimism about the U.S. economy and labour market conditions. This surge suggests that U.S. consumers feel more secure in their financial outlook, potentially supporting continued consumer spending—a key driver of gross domestic product growth.
At the same time, U.S. President Donald Trump's decision to postpone the imposition of tariffs on EU imports supported market sentiment. This move was seen as a constructive step towards de-escalating trade tensions and allowing additional negotiation time. Also, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari emphasised the need for a cautious monetary policy stance. He supported holding interest rates steady until the inflationary impact of existing tariffs becomes clearer.
During the Asian trading session, XAUUSD continued to decline. Today, gold will likely pause its decline after yesterday's significant drop. Still, FOMC Meeting Minutes, due at 6:00 p.m. UTC, may add volatility to the market. Analysts anticipate a range-bound movement for the day, with XAUUSD potentially testing the support level at $3,285 before establishing its next direction. Key levels to watch for XAUUSD are support at $3,285 and resistance at $3,320.
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6 062
📊Euro extends losses
The euro (EUR) lost 0.52% on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session.
👉Possible effects for traders
U.S. consumer confidence data came out stronger than expected. Consumer confidence rebounded in May, signalling improved consumer sentiment about the U.S. economic outlook. The data reinforced investor appetite for U.S. dollar-denominated assets, putting further downward pressure on the euro.
Market optimism following President Trump's decision to delay the implementation of 50% tariffs on EU imports added to the euro's weakness. This eased immediate concerns of a trade escalation, improving the investment outlook for U.S. assets. In anticipation of upcoming trade negotiations, European leaders have reportedly consulted with major firms to reassess their U.S. investment strategies. Meanwhile, Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari reiterated his stance on holding interest rates steady until the inflationary impact of tariffs becomes clearer.
EURUSD remained relatively unchanged during Asian and early European trading sessions. Market participants await the publication of the U.S. FOMC Meeting Minutes at 6:00 p.m. UTC today, which may shed light on the U.S. monetary policy in 2025 and influence the Forex market.
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6 062
📊 Australian dollar falls on dovish RBA stance
The Australian dollar (AUD) declined towards around 0.64300 on Wednesday, extending its downtrend despite April's Consumer Price Index (CPI) slightly exceeding expectations.
👉Possible effects for traders
The CPI data revealed inflation was at 2.4%, marginally higher than the forecasted 2.3%. Still, the data failed to support the Australian dollar, as market participants remained focused on the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) dovish monetary stance.
The RBA's recent 25-basis-point (bps) rate cut and signals of further easing amid global headwinds—particularly from ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions—have weighed on sentiment. Policymakers have also pointed to subdued inflation and growth risks as justification for фт additional stimulus. Markets now price in a 65% probability of another rate cut in July, with expectations for a cumulative 75 basis points of easing by early 2026. At the same time, the U.S. dollar (USD) continued to strengthen, buoyed by improving economic indicators, further reducing demand for the Aussie.
During Asian and early European trading sessions, AUDUSD maintained upward momentum. Today, traders should observe the upcoming FOMC Meeting Minutes at 6:00 p.m. UTC as they may offer insights into the Fed's monetary policy outlook and affect the market. Key technical levels to watch are resistance at 0.64500 and support at 0.64000.
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6 062
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