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📊 EURUSD faces headwinds from ECB rate cuts and potential Trump presidency
During a relatively quiet trading session on Monday, the euro (EUR) gained 0.18% against the U.S. dollar (USD).
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is heading for its largest monthly rise in two and a half years against a basket of major currencies. This surge is fuelled by a combination of factors: a strong U.S. economy and expectations that Donald Trump will win a presidential election, which could result in major trade policy changes. Indeed, better-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic indicators have bolstered the greenback lately. In addition, the market is increasingly pricing in a Republican victory this November, with Trump winning the presidency and his party controlling both chambers of Congress. Analysts warn that the euro could face additional pressure if the U.S. implements a global baseline tariff, potentially leading to retaliation from other countries. This could result in higher U.S. interest rates to combat inflation, further weakening EURUSD. Moreover, increased bets on more aggressive rate cuts by the European Central Bank (ECB) are also weighing on the pair.
Investors are turning their attention to the U.S. October employment report, which is expected to be impacted by the recent workers' strike at Boeing and Hurricane Milton. ‘The market will be looking quite closely for more signs into what's happening in December. (It's) going to be listening to what the reaction is to the stronger nonfarm payrolls numbers. It comes down to the Fed's reaction function’, said Peter Vassallo, FX portfolio manager at BNP Paribas Asset Management. At the same time, traders should note that the week leading up to the U.S. election could be very volatile, with the potential for uncorrelated and sharp market moves due to unexpected economic data and political events amid limited liquidity.
EURUSD was falling slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, USD-related pairs may experience some extra volatility due to the release of two macroeconomic reports: JOLTS and CB Consumer Confidence at 2:00 p.m. UTC. The data and their results may noticeably impact EURUSD. If the reports indicate the underlying strength in the U.S. economy, EURUSD will continue to fall, possibly below 1.07630. Conversely, weaker-than-expected results may provoke a rebound above 1.08400.
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3 307
🔽 AUDUSD continues to decline as the U.S. dollar rises
The Australian dollar (AUD) lost 0.32% and renewed local lows on Monday due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY).
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. dollar (USD) is increasing against other major currencies. The bullish momentum is likely due to the positive U.S. economic data and the likelihood of Republican nominee Donald Trump winning the upcoming presidential election. Market analysts believe that if Trump becomes president, he will implement trade policy changes, which could increase the U.S. dollar's value. Additionally, market participants believe that the Republican Party will likely gain control of Congress, further supporting the bullish trend. Some analysts speculate that if the U.S. imposes tariffs on imported goods, it could weaken other currencies, such as the Australian dollar, and potentially lead to higher U.S. interest rates.
Although AUDUSD has been in a downtrend since the beginning of October, the pair could receive some support from Q3 Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on Wednesday. Analysts expect headline inflation to have decreased towards 2.9% and core inflation measured by the trimmed mean to have increased by 0.7%, reaching an annual rate of 3.5%. Any uprise surprises in the CPI data may undermine the slim possibility of a rate reduction at the end of the year. At present, swaps indicate only a 34% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will start reducing rates in December, with the first easing more likely to occur in April 2025. Additionally, Commonwealth Bank of Australia analysts have warned that their forecast for a December rate cut could be revised if the trimmed mean measure exceeds 0.7%.
AUDUSD continued to decline during Asian and early European trading hours. Market participants will await the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence report at 2:00 p.m. UTC. Analysts expect confidence to increase from 98.7 towards 99.5. A higher-than-expected reading will put bearish pressure on AUDUSD, while a lower-than-expected figure may trigger an upward correction in the pair.
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USDJPY, 15-minute timeframe chart
USDJPY rebounded from the support level of 152.760
👉General outlook
USDJPY has been under selling pressure within the last couple of hours. The pair moved down to the support level of 152.760.
👉Possible scenario
The best way to use this opportunity is to place a Buy order at 152.990.
Set your stop loss at 152.630 below the previous low ($2.35 loss for 0.01 lot) and take profit at 153.350 ($2.35 profit for 0.01 lot).
The risk-reward ratio for this order is 1:1.
The upcoming news will not influence your orders within the mentioned period.
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3 307
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3 307
📊 Gold holds steady as the U.S. dollar strengthens
Gold (XAU) traded sideways last week, fluctuating between $2,720 and $2,750. Robust U.S. economic data strengthened the U.S. dollar (USD) and Treasury yields, limiting XAUUSD gains.
👉 Possible effects for traders
The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has surged by 3.6% towards 104.49 in October—the biggest monthly gain since April 2022. This rise follows a rally in Treasury yields fueled by indicators of a resilient U.S. economy and growing bets on Donald Trump winning the presidential election on 5 November. Also, the market expects the Federal Reserve (Fed) to proceed with a more cautious path for rate cuts, likely favouring smaller 25-basis-point (bps) reductions. Politically, market odds increasingly favour Trump returning to the White House, driving the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields higher due to anticipated inflationary policies like higher tariffs and lower taxes.
XAUUSD losses remain limited due to safe-haven demand fueled by ongoing Middle East tensions and uncertainties surrounding the upcoming U.S. election. However, on Saturday, Iran signalled it would refrain from retaliating against Israeli strikes on its military targets if a ceasefire agreement is reached in the Gaza Strip and Lebanon. If countries agree on a ceasefire, XAUUSD may face reduced safe-haven demand and increased downward pressure.
XAUUSD fell during the Asian trading hours. Today's trading session will likely be quiet as the economic calendar features no major news releases. The key levels to watch are $2,720 and $2,750.
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3 307
🔽 EURUSD drops to a three-month low amid diverging central banks' policies
The euro (EUR) lost 0.41% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday after a series of better-than-expected U.S. macroeconomic reports pushed the greenback higher.
👉 Possible effects for traders
In September, the U.S. Commerce Department reported a 0.5% increase in non-defense capital goods orders (excluding aircraft). This key indicator of business investment exceeded economists' expectations of a 0.1% rise. Additionally, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index climbed to 70.5 in October, surpassing the forecast of 69. Notably, consumer expectations for inflation over the next year decreased to 2.7%, aligning with September's final reading. EURUSD has now been falling for four consecutive weeks as positive U.S. economic data has lowered expectations about the size and speed of the Federal Reserve's (Fed) rate cuts and lifted U.S. Treasury yields. ‘We had a massive recalibration in economic expectations for the U.S., and that process seems to have largely run its course; the Fed's policy trajectory looks much more reasonable, and interest rate differentials between the U.S. and other major economies are stabilizing here’, said Karl Schamotta, chief market strategist at Corpay in Toronto.
Meanwhile, the eurozone economy continues to struggle with producer prices falling amid low consumer confidence and weak demand. Last week, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the third time this year, and four sources close to the decision told Reuters that a fourth cut would likely be in December unless data turned around in the coming weeks. Although some ECB officials tried to ease speculation about rate cuts, investors see a 40% chance that its next move in December will be a 50-basis-point (bps) reduction, twice the size of previous cuts.
EURUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar doesn't feature prominent events, so the established bearish trend might continue. Bears are now targeting 1.07760 and 1.07600.
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3 307
📊 Traders await economic data to define the GBPUSD trend
On Friday, the British pound (GBP) declined by 0.12%, losing 0.7% over the week as the U.S. economic data released last week strengthened the U.S. dollar (USD).
👉 Possible effects for traders
The Department of Commerce announced that orders for non-defence capital goods—a closely monitored indicator of business spending plans— increased by 0.5% in the previous month, following a 0.3% increase in August. This figure exceeded the forecast of economists surveyed by Reuters, who had anticipated a rise of 0.1%. Meanwhile, the University of Michigan report revealed that consumer sentiment in October rose from 70.1 towards 70.5, surpassing the expected 69. Additionally, the one-year inflation outlook decreased towards 2.7% from the preliminary reading of 2.9%, aligning with the final result for September.
This week, investors will focus on Thursday's U.S. PCE Price Index and Friday's U.S. nonfarm payroll data. ‘Clearly, payroll data is a crucial variable, and it remains an open question whether September's figure was an unusual move or a statistical anomaly. The next week's report will help clarify this, but in reality, we should take it with a grain of salt,’ said Karl Schamotta, Chief Market Strategist at Corpay, based in Toronto.
GBPUSD moves sideways during Asian and early European trading hours. Today, no major events can influence the pair, so it may continue moving within the established trend.
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