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📊 Gold hits all-time high on rising safe-haven demand
The gold (XAU) price rose by 0.52% and set a new all-time high on Monday as inflows into the world's top gold-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF) continued to rise.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Investors believe that in the coming weeks and months, gold prices are going to continue to appreciate. The path of least resistance for gold remains sideways to higher, and as long as uncertainty persists, gold is likely to continue rising', said Jim Wyckoff, senior market analyst at Kitco Metals. Indeed, global economic uncertainty continues to haunt the markets as U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans may spark trade wars and spur inflation. As a result, demand for safe-haven assets like gold continues to rise.
Furthermore, SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed ETF, said yesterday that its holdings rose towards 904.38 metric tonnes, the highest level since August 2023. This news additionally supported XAUUSD. Global monetary policy expectations also exert minor bullish pressure on the bullion. Investors still anticipate most major central banks will cut the rates in 2025 but at a slower pace than previously.
XAUUSD was falling during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders may expect increased volatility due to the release of the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index report at 3:00 p.m. UTC. Also, two Federal Reserve officials will give speeches and add to the volatility. Traders will seek clues about potential shifts in their cautious rate-cut stance. 'Spot gold may rise into the $2,971–2,983 range as it is about to break resistance at $2,951 per ounce', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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📊 Coalition uncertainty weighs on euro
The euro (EUR) gained 0.08% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Monday but failed to hold above the important 1.05000 level.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Initially, EURUSD received a major boost after the opposition conservative party won the national election on Sunday. However, the market shifted its focus from the election victory to how quickly a coalition government can be formed. Protracted talks may raise concerns about future economic policy and fiscal stability in the eurozone, which could weaken the euro and exert downward pressure on EURUSD. 'The policy implications are twofold — one is the debt break in Germany. Europe realises that they have to step up their defence spending, and it seems like the best way to do that is through a collective bond offering', said Marc Chandler, chief market strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex in New York. Despite a major political shift in the eurozone's largest economy, its deep-seated economic problems persist. Data on Monday showed that business morale in Germany unexpectedly stagnated in February. The Ifo Institute said its business climate index remained flat at 85.2 after slightly revising January's data.
EURUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, traders should watch the release of the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index and Richmond Manufacturing Index at 3:00 p.m. UTC. Higher-than-expected results will likely increase the bearish pressure on EURUSD, potentially pushing it below 1.04250. Conversely, lower-than-expected numbers may pull the pair higher, towards 1.05080. Also, speeches from two Federal Reserve officials at 4:45 p.m. UTC and 6:00 p.m. UTC may add to the volatility. Traders will monitor any potential shifts in their cautious rate-cut stance.
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📊 Tariff fears weigh on AUD as global recession concerns rise
On Monday, the Australian dollar (AUD) lost 0.11% against the U.S. dollar (USD) as safe-haven flows into the greenback increased after U.S. President Donald Trump said tariffs on Mexico and Canada would proceed as planned.
👉 Possible effects for traders
Trump said that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports are proceeding as planned for the 4 March deadline, despite the countries' attempts to strengthen border security and curb fentanyl trafficking. There were hopes that the U.S.'s top two trading partners could convince the Trump administration to postpone tariffs impacting over $918 billion worth of imports, but this isn't happening. Higher tariffs threaten to destabilise global trade and potentially trigger a global recession. As a highly risk-sensitive currency, AUD suffers due to the increased uncertainty surrounding global economic growth and the potential slowdown of Australia's export-driven economy.
At the same time, AUDUSD received minor support after the People's Bank of China's (PBoC) annual policy statement revealed a comprehensive strategy to advance rural reforms and support real-estate development. If realised, the strategy may help stimulate Chinese economic growth, which could bolster demand for Australian commodities and lift AUDUSD.
AUDUSD was rising slightly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's main focus is the U.S. CB Consumer Confidence Index, due at 3:00 p.m. UTC. However, AUD pairs may be more affected by the Australian Consumer Price Index (CPI) report tomorrow at 12:30 a.m. UTC. The market expects weighted CPI to remain at 2.5%. Higher-than-expected results may lower the chances of a 25-basis-point rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia in May, providing a bullish impact on AUDUSD. Conversely, lower-than-expected figures will almost certainly secure a rate cut in May and may push AUDUSD below 0.63190.
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📊 Strong safe-haven demand supports gold price
The gold (XAU) price remained relatively unchanged on Friday and continued to hover near all-time highs, driven by strong safe-haven demand.
👉 Possible effects for traders
XAUUSD rose by over 11% in 2025 as global economic and political uncertainties have intensified investors' appetite for gold, pushing prices to record highs above $2,950. Specifically, concerns over U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff plans have weighed heavily on market sentiment, sparking fears of a potential global trade war and a subsequent economic slowdown. These tariff concerns and persistent geopolitical tensions in key regions have created a climate of heightened risk aversion. 'Demand for gold is currently being driven primarily by western investors and central banks. ETF investors appear to be jumping on the bandwagon', Commerzbank analysts said in a note.
Trump's newly announced tariff plans, revealed this week, broaden the scope of existing duties to include lumber and forest products, adding to previously declared tariffs on imported cars, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. 'Gold's safe-haven role is not fully realised yet as the shift from riskier assets to safer ones is not significant, with money still on the sidelines', said Alex Ebkarian, chief operating officer at Allegiance Gold.
XAUUSD was rising during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today's macroeconomic calendar is relatively uneventful, so the likelihood of big moves is relatively low. This week's main focus is on the U.S. publications: CB Consumer Confidence on Tuesday and Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index on Friday. Additionally, investors should monitor the Russia-Ukraine peace talks. Any progress there may be treated as a sign of reduced geopolitical risk, potentially dampening safe-haven demand for gold and leading to a temporary pullback.
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📊 EURUSD starts to recover after a long downtrend
The euro (EUR) lost 0.4% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Friday as investors consolidated positions ahead of the weekend and monitored more tariff announcements.
👉 Possible effects for traders
EURUSD has been recovering for the past month. After setting a multi-month low on 13 January, the pair has risen above the critical 1.04150 level and remains above the 25-day moving average. This recovery can be attributed to several factors, including a shift in market sentiment regarding the potential divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve (Fed) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Indeed, the divergence in monetary policy expectations between the two central banks has been priced in well in advance. Furthermore, while still showing some signs of weakness, eurozone economic data wasn't as bleak as some analysts had feared. This contributed to a renewed confidence in the euro.
EURUSD was rising strongly during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, the formal macroeconomic calendar is uneventful. However, several relatively minor eurozone macroeconomic reports may stoke some volatility in EUR pairs. Investors should follow the final Consumer Price Index data at 10:00 a.m. UTC and the German Bundesbank monthly report at 12:00 p.m. UTC. A break above 1.05264 would open the way towards 1.05474, while a drop below 1.05050 would enable bears to target 1.04910.
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