Glassnode

A hallmark of bear markets: STH Supply in Profit falling below 50%, meaning the majority of recent buyers are underwater. Demand-side risk appetite tends to remain suppressed until this flips back above 50%. Watch this level as a precondition for any sustained recovery. 📉 glassno.de/3PyUZRj

An accumulation cluster is forming in the $62k–$72k range. However, its intensity is modest relative to prior phases that preceded sustained expansions. Conviction is building, but the foundation for a mid-term breakout remains thin so far. 📉 http://glassno.de/3P2i7rr

The Week On-Chain 10, 2026 Bitcoin shows early signs of stabilisation as ETF inflows return and spot demand begins to recover. Negative funding reveals crowded short positioning, while options volatility eases, suggesting reduced immediate risk despite lingering uncertainty. Executive Summary - Bitcoin has consolidated within a $62.8k–$72.6k range for over a month, with repeated failures above $70k and geopolitical uncertainty adding further downside risk to the mid-term outlook. - Price remains bounded between the Realized Price ($54.4k) and True Market Mean ($78.4k), with negative return skew prevailing until a decisive hold above $70k is established. - An accumulation cluster is forming near the range midpoint, but its intensity falls short of prior episodes that preceded meaningful expansions, limiting conviction in a sustained breakout. - The 7D-EMA of STH-SOPR has remained below 1 since October 2025, now at 0.985, confirming that recent buyers are spending at a loss — a hallmark of a bear market regime. - US Spot Bitcoin ETF flows have stabilised, with the 7-day moving average returning to positive territory after several weeks of sustained institutional outflows. - Spot market demand is showing early signs of recovery, with cumulative volume delta rebounding as buyers begin absorbing sell-side liquidity across major exchanges. - Perpetual futures funding has turned negative, indicating growing short positioning and increasing the potential for a short-squeeze dynamic should spot demand strengthen. - Options markets reflect easing short-term uncertainty, with front-end implied volatility compressing as traders scale back aggressive short-dated hedging. - Delta skew across options markets remains near neutral, suggesting limited directional conviction despite elevated macro and geopolitical uncertainty. - Gamma positioning remains largely neutral, implying options dealer hedging flows are unlikely to meaningfully amplify price volatility in the near term. Read more in The Week On-Chain

🔄 UPDATE: The Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D SMA) has been trading below 1 since February 21. Historically, breaks below the neutral level (~1) have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it. 📉 glassno.de/4rjg683

#Bitcoin pulled back from $74k but internals are stabilizing. Momentum, ETF inflows, and profitability metrics improved modestly, though capital flows and conviction remain weak. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/3OXCaqR

#BTC Spot ETF flows are stabilising after sustained outflows. The 14-day netflow trend has turned higher, signalling easing distribution pressure as BTC breaks above 70k. Institutional demand remains tentative, but early re-accumulation signs are emerging. https://glassno.de/4sLx5Rh

📢 We’ve just launched Strategy Watch – Glassnode’s new monthly analysis of fund performance and institutional capital flows in digital assets. Download the inaugural edition: https://glassno.de/4u7QGfF Each issue combines aggregated manager survey data with on-chain and market intelligence to track: 🔹 Institutional capital flows 🔹 Strategy performance dispersion 🔹 Manager positioning and cash levels 🔹 SMA adoption and mandate shifts 🔹 Allocation activity If you allocate capital, manage crypto strategies, or shape investment mandates, this is your monthly read on where returns are concentrating and how institutions are positioning. 📩 Subscribe to receive it monthly: https://glassno.de/4l5HrII

Perpetual Open Interest posted its largest daily % increase since July 2025. Leverage expanded as price tested $69.4k, consistent with speculators betting on a $70k breakout that didn't materialize. 📈glassno.de/4u0lkrj

🔄UPDATE: The $70k ceiling holds! Feb 19 → Feb 25 → Mar 03, 02:00 UTC. Each time the 12HR-SMA of Net Realized P&L spiked above $5M/hr, price stalled and reversed at the $69.4k range high. This region continues to cap every recovery attempt. The asymmetry reflects the fragility of the current demand structure. Until this level of profit-taking can be absorbed without triggering rejection, $70k remains a ceiling, not a floor. 📉glassno.de/4kHB925

#BTC stabilises as momentum and on-chain activity improve, while derivatives stay cautious. Selling pressure eases but capital flows remain fragile, signalling a tentative recovery backdrop. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4cW6KuS

Feb 25, 18:00 UTC — this pattern repeated. Smoothed Net Realized P&L exceeded $5M/hr. Price peaked at $69.4k and stalled. Profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70k threshold, consistent with a thin liquidity regime where even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts. 📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925

The Week On-Chain 8, 2026 #BTC is range-bound between key valuation anchors, with $60k–$69k absorbing sell pressure. Profitability and breadth are fading, spot and ETF flows stay negative, and leverage has reset. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains range-bound between $60k–$70k at a 47% drawdown from ATH, a depth historically aligned with mid-to-late bear market phases. - Nearly 9.2M BTC are now held at a loss, yet accumulation remains weak, with the Accumulation Trend Score below 0.5, signaling limited conviction from larger entities. - The 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1.0, confirming an excess loss regime and structurally impaired liquidity, keeping downside risk elevated. - Market breadth remains weak, as fewer assets sustain positioning above long-term trend baselines, confirming underlying structural softness. - Large entity accumulation remains constructive in structure but has slowed in pace, reducing a key source of marginal upside support. - Spot CVD has turned decisively negative across major venues, signaling active distribution. ETF flows remain in persistent outflow, confirming institutional demand is not providing a structural bid. - Perpetual funding rates have normalized toward neutral, indicating leverage has reset. However, the absence of sustained positive funding reflects muted speculative appetite rather than renewed bullish conviction. - Implied volatility has reacted to downside moves but failed to expand meaningfully, suggesting options markets are stabilizing rather than pricing systemic stress. Read more in The Week On-Chain

#BTC options positioning has flipped. Our full-history GEX heatmap shows expanding negative gamma (red) around and below spot, while positive “gamma walls” thin out above. With price in a short-gamma pocket, dealer hedging can amplify moves. https://glassno.de/46LyIG3

#Bitcoin stayed range-bound around ~$64–68K, momentum modestly improving but participation weak. Sell pressure eased slightly yet spot, derivatives, ETF, and on-chain indicators remain defensive. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4rzXTnf

#Bitcoin stayed range-bound around ~$64–68K, momentum modestly improving but participation weak. Sell pressure eased slightly yet spot, derivatives, ETF, and on-chain indicators remain defensive. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4rzXTnf

The 7D-EMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss for recent investors plunged to –$1.24B/day on Feb 06, before moderating to –$0.48B/day today. While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate. 📉 glassno.de/4cadTHO

The 90D-SMA of top crypto assets' Change in Open Interest [%] has remained negative since October 2025. The speculative premium, and with it derivatives liquidity, continues to contract. Leverage appetite has yet to return, reinforcing the broader risk-off regime. 📉 http://glassno.de/4ooZ5rT

Since the new ATH in early October, US Spot ETF balances have posted their largest drawdown of this cycle, down ~100.3k BTC. Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment. 📉 http://glassno.de/4tJOR8r

Range-Bound Under Pressure Executive Summary Bitcoin has slipped below the True Market Mean (~$79k), with the Realized Price (~$54.9k) defining the lower structural boundary. In the absence of a macro catalyst, this range is likely to frame the mid-term environment. Sell pressure continues to be absorbed within the $60k–$69k demand cluster formed in H1 2024. The Holder conviction at breakeven has supported a transition into consolidation. Liquidity remains constrained, with the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stuck between 1–2. Capital rotation is limited, and the broader backdrop remains cautious. ETF flows have rotated back into persistent outflows, removing a key structural bid. Institutional demand is no longer cushioning downside. The volatility risk premium is normalizing as realized volatility remains elevated and implied retraces. Panic-driven flows are fading, with markets shifting toward range-bound expectations. Read the full Week On-Chain👇 https://glassno.de/4qHi80M

Since early February, every attempt to reclaim $70k has met demand exhaustion, with even >$5M/hour in net realized profit triggering rejection. Contrast that with Q3 2025’s euphoric phase, when profit realization surged to $200–350M/hour. Ongoing regime of thin liquidity makes a sustained recovery into the $70–80k range structurally challenging. 📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925