Glassnode

Feb 25, 18:00 UTC — this pattern repeated. Smoothed Net Realized P&L exceeded $5M/hr. Price peaked at $69.4k and stalled. Profit-taking continues to absorb momentum at the $70k threshold, consistent with a thin liquidity regime where even modest realization events are sufficient to suppress recovery attempts. 📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925

The Week On-Chain 8, 2026 #BTC is range-bound between key valuation anchors, with $60k–$69k absorbing sell pressure. Profitability and breadth are fading, spot and ETF flows stay negative, and leverage has reset. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains range-bound between $60k–$70k at a 47% drawdown from ATH, a depth historically aligned with mid-to-late bear market phases. - Nearly 9.2M BTC are now held at a loss, yet accumulation remains weak, with the Accumulation Trend Score below 0.5, signaling limited conviction from larger entities. - The 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1.0, confirming an excess loss regime and structurally impaired liquidity, keeping downside risk elevated. - Market breadth remains weak, as fewer assets sustain positioning above long-term trend baselines, confirming underlying structural softness. - Large entity accumulation remains constructive in structure but has slowed in pace, reducing a key source of marginal upside support. - Spot CVD has turned decisively negative across major venues, signaling active distribution. ETF flows remain in persistent outflow, confirming institutional demand is not providing a structural bid. - Perpetual funding rates have normalized toward neutral, indicating leverage has reset. However, the absence of sustained positive funding reflects muted speculative appetite rather than renewed bullish conviction. - Implied volatility has reacted to downside moves but failed to expand meaningfully, suggesting options markets are stabilizing rather than pricing systemic stress. Read more in The Week On-Chain

#BTC options positioning has flipped. Our full-history GEX heatmap shows expanding negative gamma (red) around and below spot, while positive “gamma walls” thin out above. With price in a short-gamma pocket, dealer hedging can amplify moves. https://glassno.de/46LyIG3

#Bitcoin stayed range-bound around ~$64–68K, momentum modestly improving but participation weak. Sell pressure eased slightly yet spot, derivatives, ETF, and on-chain indicators remain defensive. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4rzXTnf

#Bitcoin stayed range-bound around ~$64–68K, momentum modestly improving but participation weak. Sell pressure eased slightly yet spot, derivatives, ETF, and on-chain indicators remain defensive. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4rzXTnf

The 7D-EMA of Net Realized Profit & Loss for recent investors plunged to –$1.24B/day on Feb 06, before moderating to –$0.48B/day today. While the intensity has cooled, the broader regime still signals a market under pressure, with participants in the base formation phase continuing to capitulate. 📉 glassno.de/4cadTHO

The 90D-SMA of top crypto assets' Change in Open Interest [%] has remained negative since October 2025. The speculative premium, and with it derivatives liquidity, continues to contract. Leverage appetite has yet to return, reinforcing the broader risk-off regime. 📉 http://glassno.de/4ooZ5rT

Since the new ATH in early October, US Spot ETF balances have posted their largest drawdown of this cycle, down ~100.3k BTC. Institutional de-risking has added structural weight to the ongoing weakness, reinforcing the broader risk-off environment. 📉 http://glassno.de/4tJOR8r

Range-Bound Under Pressure Executive Summary Bitcoin has slipped below the True Market Mean (~$79k), with the Realized Price (~$54.9k) defining the lower structural boundary. In the absence of a macro catalyst, this range is likely to frame the mid-term environment. Sell pressure continues to be absorbed within the $60k–$69k demand cluster formed in H1 2024. The Holder conviction at breakeven has supported a transition into consolidation. Liquidity remains constrained, with the 90D Realized Profit/Loss Ratio stuck between 1–2. Capital rotation is limited, and the broader backdrop remains cautious. ETF flows have rotated back into persistent outflows, removing a key structural bid. Institutional demand is no longer cushioning downside. The volatility risk premium is normalizing as realized volatility remains elevated and implied retraces. Panic-driven flows are fading, with markets shifting toward range-bound expectations. Read the full Week On-Chain👇 https://glassno.de/4qHi80M

Since early February, every attempt to reclaim $70k has met demand exhaustion, with even >$5M/hour in net realized profit triggering rejection. Contrast that with Q3 2025’s euphoric phase, when profit realization surged to $200–350M/hour. Ongoing regime of thin liquidity makes a sustained recovery into the $70–80k range structurally challenging. 📉http://glassno.de/4kHB925

BTC Realized Profits-to-Value (30D MA) has retraced sharply, unwinding much of the prior profit-taking impulse. However, it remains above the historical capitulation band. This suggests profit realization is cooling, but not yet broad capitulation. https://glassno.de/40fcpoa

During the first sharp leg down in NOV 2025, the market absorbed heavy sell pressure aggressively, similar to the post-LUNA & FTX crash responses. The recent drop to $60k did see some accumulation, but it was notably weaker than the NOV 2025 bounce or the reflexive demand seen after the LUNA collapse. 📉http://glassno.de/3OgO6Uo

The LTH Cost Basis Distribution (CBD) Heatmap maps supply density across price levels. The recent support above $65k is anchored in the 2024 H1 accumulation range. This demand zone has absorbed recent sell pressure. A decisive break would likely open the path toward Realized Price (~$54k). 📈http://glassno.de/4aRWHW9

#Bitcoin spent the past week rebounding to $70K and stalling into the high $60Ks. The structure still looks reactive, with attempts to recover meeting overhead supply and follow-through remaining limited. Read more in this week’s Market Pulse👇 https://glassno.de/4aBgpUX

The Week On-Chain 6, 2026 Bitcoin remains defensive in the $60k–$72k zone while overhead supply caps rallies. Treasury outflows, reactive spot volume, and cooling futures signal shallow demand. Executive Summary - Bitcoin remains confined between the True Market Mean (~$79.2k) and the Realized Price (~$55k), reflecting a defensive regime following the structural breakdown, with sell-side pressure continuing to be absorbed in the $60k–$72k demand corridor. - Large supply clusters at $82k–$97k and $100k–$117k sit in unrealized loss, creating overhead resistance potential during relief rallies. - Short-Term Holder profitability remains negative, underscoring fragile conviction among recent buyers and limiting upside follow-through. - Digital Asset Treasury flows have flipped into synchronized net outflows, signalling broad institutional de-risking and shallow spot absorption. - Spot volume spiked during the selloff but failed to sustain, indicating reactive participation rather than constructive accumulation. - Perpetual futures positioning has cooled, with directional premiums compressing as leveraged traders step back and speculative momentum fades. - Implied volatility and skew reflect persistent downside hedging demand, consistent with a defensive market posture. - Dealer gamma and options positioning are reinforcing reactive price behaviour, keeping moves short-lived amid fragile liquidity conditions. Read more in The Week On-Chain

Assuming the early October ATH marked the end of the recent bull market, this cycle saw very modest drawdowns, similar to the 2015–2017 market. 📈 http://glassno.de/3ZuY5Yr

At $69k, the unrealized loss in the market equals ~17% of the market cap. Current market pain echoes a similar structure seen in early May 2022.

XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling. • SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now) • Holders are realizing significant losses • On-chain profitability flipped negative This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization. 📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO

XRP lost its aggregate holder cost basis, triggering panic selling. • SOPR (7D EMA) fell from 1.16 (Jul ’25) to 0.96 (now) • Holders are realizing significant losses • On-chain profitability flipped negative This setup closely resembles the Sep 2021–May 2022 phase, where SOPR plunged to a <1 range for prolonged consolidation before stabilization. 📉 http://glassno.de/3O4vYwO