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538
📌US INFLATION: Pressure on the Fed is easing
Key data for December:
Headline inflation (y/y): 2.7% (as expected)
Core inflation (y/y): 2.6%, below forecast (2.7%)
📌Core inflation is slowing faster than expected. This gives the Fed more room for future policy easing.
The news is positive. Reducing inflation pressure supports hopes for rate cuts and increased risk appetite.
538
2026 — Month by Month (Astrologic + The Economist)
January — House 1
The tone of the year is set
Market self-identification
Who are you: risk or protection
High volatility, harsh statements
538
Powell claims the investigation is a setup by Trump because he refuses to lower the key interest rate. He has no intention of bending to his will.
👇
https://t.me/c/1714856556/3015
538
Powell claims the investigation is a setup by Trump because he refuses to lower the key interest rate. He has no intention of bending to his will.
👇
https://t.me/c/1714856556/3015
538
EVERYONE IS SHORT FEAR. IT'S THE MOST DANGEROUS BET.
Funds have accumulated record shorts on the VIX, betting on perpetual calm. But the market loves surprises.
When everyone is confident in calm, expect a storm. Any trigger → the VIX will soar → panicked short-selling will begin → chain reaction and collapse.
Like in August 2024: -10% in a matter of days.
538
BITCOIN: CUP AND HANDLE OR CONSOLIDATION?
A bullish "Cup and Handle" pattern is forming on the BTC chart:
Cup: 94.7k 82.3k 92.7k+
A handle is currently forming at 92.7k.
Scenario:
Breakout of 92.7k with volume target of 96-98k
Loss of 90k → correction to 87.7k
Consolidation for now. Waiting for a breakout.
Resistance: 92.7k
Support: 90k 87.7k
Indicators (RSI) are neutral, not overbought. ======================
🐻Bearish scenario (deep correction):
Loss of 90,000
Selloff to 87,700 (key support)
Break of 87,700 → path to 82,280 and below
538
Today, former New York City Mayor Eric Adams launched the NYC crypto token, claiming it would combat "anti-Semitism and anti-Americanism."
After reaching the $600 million cap, he withdrew almost all liquidity and crashed the token.
538
The key milestone to watch in 2026 is the 68k-72k zone. This will determine whether we see a classic pullback or the beginning of a new, protracted bearish phase
538
BITCOIN: AT THE THRESHOLD OF A DECISIVE RANGE
Remember November 2024? Trump won the election, and Bitcoin surged upwards from the $68,000 zone. Back then, it was a political impetus that shaped a new price landscape.
We are now at a critical juncture. The price is holding higher, but the foundation for growth laid in that surge remains below.
What does this mean for 2026?
If in the first half of the year the price breaks through this former support range of around $68,000-$70,000 and consolidates below, it will not be a simple correction. This will signal the entry into a longer and deeper bearish phase.
This will confirm the previously discussed trend: each bearish cycle becomes longer.
And for now?
Silence. The price is holding higher. We're entering a phase that could aptly be described as "let the plankton gain weight." The market is allowing the last optimists to enter before a potential major reversal.
The key milestone to watch in 2026 is the 68k-72k zone. This will determine whether we see a classic pullback or the beginning of a new, protracted bearish phase.
538
Asset managers have aggressively increased their short positions in VIX index futures to the highest level since July 2024.
In other words, funds are betting heavily on maintaining low volatility in the stock market.
Such extreme short positions in the VIX often make markets vulnerable to sharp volatility spikes when sentiment shifts.
A similar situation occurred in July-August 2024, when a sudden shift in risk appetite caused the market to fall by almost 10%.
Let there be movement.
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