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🎯 PCE RESULTS |
━━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 Core PCE m/m — 0.2% ≈ INLINE (F 0.2%)
🟢 Core PCE y/y — 3.3% ≈ INLINE (F 3.3%)
❌ Headline y/y — 3.7% HOT (F 3.6%)
❌ GDP Price Index — 6.4% HOT (F 6.2%)
✅ Durable Goods — 1.1% BEAT (F 0.5%)
READ: Fed ගේ gauge flat 3.3% — September HOLD safe. ඒත් අනිත් ඔක්කොම hot = inflation sticky. USD mild bid, gold chop.
Gold: $4,579 → $4,522 supports | $4,700 break = $4,774 next
BTC: wick දෙපැත්තටම — මේ සතියේ flow එක crypto එකේම.
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⏰ 25 MIN TO US CORE PCE
Fed ගේ favourite inflation gauge එක — July data. F 0.2% • P 0.1%
Cool print → cut hopes live → Dollar දුර්වලයි → Gold/BTC bullish 🟢
Hot print → hawkish repricing → Dollar ශක්තිමත් → Gold/BTC pressure 🔴
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US PCE Inflation Data එන්න තියෙන නිසා අද Global Forex Market එක ලොකු Consolidation Range එකක හිරවෙලා තියෙන්නේ. US Dollar Index (DXY) එක Hold වෙන අතරේ, Data එනකම් Traded Volume එක සෑහෙන්න Drop වෙලා තියෙනවා.
🟡 Gold (XAU/USD):
Gold එක $4,620 – $4,650 සීමාවේ Pullback එකක තියෙනවා. Overbought Conditions Cooling Down වෙන ගමන් තියෙන්නේ. $4,600 Support එක Hold වුණොත් විතරයි ආයෙත් $4,700 Level එක පැත්තට PUSH එකක් බලන්න පුළුවන්.
🇪🇺 EUR/USD:
1.1650 – 1.1670 Range එක ඇතුළේ Move වෙන්නේ. 1.1700 Resistance එක Break කරගන්න බැරි වුණු නිසා PCE Data එනකම් Sideways Run එකක් යන්නේ.
🇬🇧 GBP/USD:
1.3650 Level එකෙන් පහළට Reject වෙලා පොඩි Retest එකක් දෙනවා. Key Support එක 1.3600.
🛢 WTI Crude Oil:
Hormuz Diplomacy සහ Middle East Talks නිසා Oil Prices $80 සීමාවට කඩා වැටුණා. මේක නිසා CAD Weak වෙලා USDCAD Pair එක උඩට PUSH වෙනවා.
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Previous post එකේ $0.7070-$0.7100 resistance test ගැන call කළා — bullish breakout scenario with $0.7240 target, rejection scenario with $0.6850 retest. AUD CPI hot print 3.5% vs 3.2% forecast = hawkish RBA door open, USD weak on Treasury buyback scheme + Iran diplomacy hopes.
දැන් spot 0.7170 zone එකේ trade වෙනවා, June මුල ට පස්සේ highest level. 4H chart එකේ 100-SMA 0.7085 support එකට උඩින් hold = constructive bias.
• RBA hold 4.35% + hot CPI = AUD bid confirmed
• USD weakness narrative (Bessent buyback, Iran de-escalation) = tailwind
• $0.7070-$0.7100 breakout happened, target $0.7240 next
Support: 0.7085 (100-SMA), 0.7020, 0.6850 (main demand)
Resistance: 0.7170, 0.7240 (target), 0.7300+
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🇳🇿 NZD/USD 1H
Kiwi 0.5980 ගාව push කරනවා — yesterday $0.5800 ඉඳලා strong rally එකක් 0.5980 දක්වා, June 1 ට පස්සේ highest level. USD weakness + RBNZ hawkish expectations fuel කරනවා. Bessent Treasury buyback scheme US yields පහතට ඇදලා, Hormuz mines removed කළා කියලා safe-haven bid එකත් fade උනා. Warsh Friday Jackson Hole එකේ = next USD catalyst.
Chart බැලුවම 0.5983 immediate resistance — break උනොත් 0.6000 psychological round, ඊට උඩින් 0.6050 extension. Support 0.5971, ඊට පහළ 20-SMA 0.5967. Deeper pullback 0.5944 before broader uptrend. RSI 62, constructive not overbought.
Core PCE tonight = volatility. Dips attract buyers narrative intact if 0.5965 hold.
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Gold දැන් $4,640 demand zone එක retest කරනවා — yesterday $4,700 reject එකෙන් පස්සේ $4,605 ට ගිහින් ආපහු bounce එකක් $4,672 ට ගියා, දැන් ආපහු $4,640 ගාව support එක test කරනවා. 15M chart එකේ higher low sequence intact, supply zones $4,690-4,700 ඉඳලා $4,720+ දක්වා ladder එකක් පේනවා.
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🎯 Today High Impact News | Aug 26 (Wed)
━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 ALREADY OUT
🟡 5:20 AM SLT — JPY SPPI y/y
Actual: 3.6% | Forecast: 3.2% | Previous: 3.4%
Hot PPI print. BOJ normalization pressure live. USD/JPY downside risk.
🟡 6:00 AM SLT — AUD MI Leading Index m/m
Actual: 0.0% | Previous: 0.1%
Flat — soft early signal before CPI.
━━━━━━━━━━━
🟠 UPCOMING
🔴 7:00 AM SLT — AUD CPI m/m (F 0.9% • P -0.1%)
🔴 7:00 AM SLT — AUD CPI y/y (F 3.3% • P 3.8%)
🔴 7:00 AM SLT — AUD Trimmed Mean CPI m/m (F 0.4% • P 0.3%)
🟡 7:00 AM SLT — AUD Construction Work Done q/q (F 0.5% • P 3.4%)
AUD CPI cluster. RBA tone setter. Hot = AUD bid. Cool = AUD sell. Trimmed mean focus.
🟡 1:30 PM SLT — CHF UBS Economic Expectations (P 10.0)
🟡 3:30 PM SLT — GBP CBI Realized Sales (F -35 • P -26)
━━━━━━━━━━━
🔴 US RED FOLDER — 6:00 PM SLT
🔴 USD Core PCE m/m (F 0.2% • P 0.1%) — MAIN EVENT
Fed's favorite inflation gauge.
🔴 USD Prelim GDP q/q (F 1.5% • P 1.5%)
🔴 USD Prelim GDP Price Index q/q (F 6.2% • P 6.2%)
🟠 USD Core Durable Goods Orders m/m (F 0.6% • P 0.7%)
🟡 USD Durable Goods Orders m/m (F 0.4% • P 0.5%)
🟡 USD Personal Income m/m (F 0.2% • P 0.2%)
🟡 USD Personal Spending m/m (F 0.1% • P 0.3%)
🟡 8:00 PM SLT — USD Crude Oil Inventories (F 1.6M • P 4.4M)
🟡 9:15 PM SLT — USD FOMC Barkin Speaks
🟡 9:45 PM SLT — CHF Gov Board Member Martin Speaks
━━━━━━━━━━━
AUD CPI 7:00 AM = first move. Trimmed mean 0.4% vs 0.3% prev = hawkish lean if hit. Hot print = AUD bid across pairs.
Core PCE 6:00 PM = THE main event. Forecast 0.2% එකට 0.1% miss = USD sell, BTC pump. Beat 0.3%+ = DXY bid, gold pressure. GDP inline = no surprise.
JPY SPPI hot this morning = BOJ tightening pressure live. USD/JPY 160 retest = intervention talk.
Barkin 2nd speech same week = consistency check before Jackson Hole Friday. Today PCE = last major data point before Warsh takes stage.
Trade plan: AUD CPI first reaction. Tighten stops before 6:00 PM PCE. Position size reduce going in. Vol expansion across all pairs + crypto.
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Gold අද උදේ $4,700 ගාව tap කරලා rejection ගත්තා, දැන් $4,650 zone එකේ trade වෙනවා. Buyers grip එක තාම අත්හැරලා නෑ — pullback එක profit booking, trend change නෙවෙයි.
USD ට දැන් short-term bottom එකක් form වෙලා තියෙනවා, ඒත් broader weakness එක still intact — Iran tensions, PCE inflation data එකට කලින් cautious. Trump Hormuz mines removed කළා කියලා announce කරලා, Pakistan-Iran back-channel diplomacy via Asim Munir offer එකක් දාලා — that's USD-supportive headlines but no deal yet.
Technical picture බැලුවම 4H chart එකේ 20-SMA $4,616 hold උනොත් next leg $4,730 → $4,800. 100-SMA $4,385, 200-SMA $4,220 deeper cushion. RSI 64, momentum positive but not euphoric. Daily chart එකේ all SMAs cluster $4,338-$4,520 between — solid support base.
PCE Friday එකට කලින් macro = USD fragile, gold bid. Bessent liquidity narrative + Iran premium = structural support $4,500 ට පහළට.
Trade කරන්නේ නම්: 0.5% position, trail $4,616 පහළ, scale out $4,700 / $4,750 / $4,800. Break $4,616 පහළ = retest $4,540 / $4,500.
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TODAY RESULTS | Aug 25 (Tue)
━━━━━━━━━━━
🟡 JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y — 1.4% inline. Yen ටත් ලොකු move නෑ.
🟡 EUR German GDP — 0.2% inline. Recovery ගොඩක් අඩු.
🟡 EUR ifo Climate — 88.8 beat. EUR bid ගියා midday වල.
🟡 USD ADP — 9.5K inline. Labor market cool වෙනවා, crash නෑ.
🟡 Barkin speech — Patient tone. Cut එකක් ගහන්න බෑ කියලා commit උනේ නෑ. Door open තියාගත්තා.
🟡 USD S&P/CS HPI — 1.6% miss. Housing cooling confirm.
🔴 USD CB Consumer Confidence — 89.4 miss. 7-month low. Gas $4+, Iran war. Midterms එකට headwind.
🔴 USD New Home Sales — 607K, -10.5% MoM miss. Housing market crack වෙනවා.
🟡 USD Richmond Mfg — 4 miss. Tariff drag real.
━━━━━━━━━━━
USD miss දාගෙනම ගියා — housing + confidence දෙකම weak. DXY downside open 97.6-97.8 ට. Gold $4,700 retest. BTC real flows එනවා USD weakness එකට. EUR 1.18 ට යන්න පුළුවන් DXY break උනොත්. Nvidia earnings = crypto vol.
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USD/CAD දැන් 1.3854 zone එකේ trade වෙනවා. Chart එකේ story එක පැහැදිලි වෙනවා — 1.3740-1.3760 මේ major demand zone එකෙන් sharp bounce එකක් ආවා 1.3870 ට ගිහින්. 1H එකේ impulse leg complete වෙලා දැන් micro pullback එකක් දකින්න පුළුවන්. Upper side ට 1.3870-1.3905 මේ zone එක major supply wall එකක් ලෙස act කරනවා, lower side ට 1.3740-1.3760 demand zone එක critical support. ඒ zone BREAK නම් 1.3670-1.3700 ට flush එකක් යන්න පුළුවන්, 1.3905 කඩනවා නම් 1.3950 ට extension එකක් එන්න පුළුවන්. Macro background එකේ US-Canada trade war live, Trump 50% tariffs Canadian autos/steel වලට Jan 2027 ඉඳන්, Carney retaliatory tariffs Sept 8 ට scheduled, Bessent "economic D-Day" Iran narrative එකෙන් USD bid short-term. මේ factors ඔක්කොම CAD ට downside pressure එකක් දෙනවා, USD/CAD upside bias maintain කරනවා near-term. Mid-range trade එකක් risk මේ moment එකේ, headlines drive volatility ගොඩක් කරන නිසා SL tight තියාගන්න ඕන
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Gold දැන් $4,640 zone එකේ — massive $4,700 ට push එකක් ඊට පස්සේ tight consolidation එකක්. Symmetrical triangle / descending wedge එකක් වගේ narrowing price action $4,620-$4,700 range එකේ. Buyers defending $4,620 demand, sellers capping $4,700-$4,720 supply wall.
Bulls control කරනවා big picture එකේ, ඒත් දැන් coiling. Breakout direction = next move.
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🇺🇸 Bessent Iran එකට "Economic D-Day" දැන්වූවා — fresh sanctions, USD bid short-term, Gold safe-haven flow
🇺🇸 US Debt $40T cross කරා — debasement trade එක live, USD weakness narrative ශක්තිමත්
🇨🇦 US-Canada trade war — Trump Canadian autos/steel වලට 50% tariffs Jan 2027 ඉඳන්. Carney retaliatory tariffs Sept 8 ඉඳන්. USD/CAD upside pressure
🇪🇺 EUR/USD 1.1711 rejected — 3-month high ට touch කරලා reject. 0.618 Arc cap, 1.1642 potential downside. RSI overbought
🇯🇵 USD/JPY 158-160 range — intervention risk high. BOJ rate hike bets live
🥇 Gold $4,681 — 3-month high. USD weakness + Iran + debasement = unstoppable. Target $4,770
🛢 WTI $85 — Iran premium. Hormuz traffic +400%. Sanctions headline-driven
DATA WEEK:
🔴 CB Consumer Confidence Tue
🔴 ADP Tue
🔴 PCE/GDP Wed-Thu
🔴 Jackson Hole Warsh Fri
🔴 Nvidia earnings Wed
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DXY දැන් 99.04 zone එකේ — support range එක break කරලා පහළට downward trend එකක් form උනා. Late July high $101.4 ඉඳන් sharp drop එකක්, currently 98.7-99.4 demand zone එකේ consolidation. Currently 99.04 — micro bounce එකක් දැන්.
BULLISH: Support range එකෙන් trend change, upward move start
BEARISH: Support zone එක break, downward continuation — $97.6-$97.8 major demand area ට
Bessent hawkish + Iran sanctions + Treasury buybacks = USD should bid, ඒත් chart එකේ දැන් sellers in control. 98.7-99.4 hold කvරනවද බලන්න ඕන, break උනොත් $97.6 ට drop. Hold උනොත් upside $100 handle test.
Gold + BTC traders ට: DXY direction එක critical. DXY පහළ ගියොත් Gold + BTC rally extend, DXY bounce උනොත් pressure.
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Gold දැන් $4,679 (-0.04%) zone එකේ — Aug 24 high $4,700 ට touch කරලා minor rejection. 5M එකේ clean ascending channel එකක් — higher highs $4,600 → $4,640 → $4,700, higher lows sequence intact. දැන් micro pullback එකක් $4,680 ට, channel support line එකට retest. Buyers $4,670-4,680 zone එකේ defend කරනවා, breakdown එකක් $4,640 demand zone එකට.
Upside ට $4,720-$4,730 supply wall එක major resistance, $4,700 immediate barrier. Mid-range trade එකක් කරන එක risk මේ moment එකේ — channel break එකක් ගන්න ඕන direction එකට, then ride.
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🎯 Yesterday News Results | Aug 24
━━━━━━━━━━━
🟢 ALREADY OUT
NZD Core Retail Sales q/q: 0.7% (F 0.3%, P 1.1%) — BEAT 🔥
NZ consumer spending ප්රබල ලෙස beat උනා. NZD ට short-term boost.
NZD Retail Sales q/q: -0.5% (F 0.1%, P 1.0%) — MISS ❌
Headline miss උනා ඒත් core beat — mixed signal.
🟠 6:00 PM SLT — CAD Corporate Profits q/q: -2.0% (P -2.0%) — INLINE ⚖️
CAD volatility mid-session, USD/CAD ට minor reaction. Manufacturing sector profits decline continue.
🟠 11:30 PM SLT — USD Treasury Sec Bessent Speaks 🔴
Bessent ගේ speech එක USD ට hawkish tone එකක් දුන්නා. Dollar strengthen උනා, Gold ට late session selling pressure, BTC ට ටිකක් weakness.
මොකද වෙන්නේ?
Bessent hawkish tilt = USD bid, Gold + BTC react කරපු දේ expected එක. Manufacturing profits decline එක CAD ට pressure දානවා, ඒත් oil prices ට ටිකක් support ආවා.
USD strengthening bias දැන් hold කරනවා. Gold $4,640 ට selling pressure, BTC $78K handle tight.
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🎯 Today High Impact News | Aug 25 (Tue)
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🟠 7:00 AM SLT — AUD Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes
RBA hawkish/dovish tone — AUD pairs ට reactive.
🟡 10:30 AM SLT — JPY BOJ Core CPI y/y (F 1.4% • P 1.5%)
BOJ data — yen strength එකට direct impact. USD/JPY watch.
🟡 11:30 AM SLT — EUR German Final GDP q/q (F 0.2% • P 0.2%)
🟡 1:30 PM SLT — EUR German ifo Business Climate (F 87.2 • P 86.6)
EUR midday session volatility.
🟡 5:45 PM SLT — USD ADP Weekly Employment Change (P 9.5K)
Friday NFP ට preview එකක්.
🟡 6:00 PM SLT — USD FOMC Member Barkin Speaks
FOMC speech — USD direction එක ඒකෙන් set වෙන්න පුළුවන්.
🟡 6:30 PM SLT — EUR Belgian NBB Business Climate (F -11.0 • P -11.9)
🟡 6:30 PM SLT — USD HPI m/m (F 0.2% • P 0.3%)
🟡 6:30 PM SLT — USD S&P/CS Composite-20 HPI y/y (F 1.8% • P 1.6%)
🔴 7:30 PM SLT — USD CB Consumer Confidence (F 90.3 • P 90.8)
🔴 7:30 PM SLT — USD New Home Sales (F 620K • P 628K)
🟡 7:30 PM SLT — USD Richmond Manufacturing Index (F 6 • P 5)
US session red folder — main move එක මෙතනින් එනවා. Gold + BTC reactive.
Barkin speech + CB Consumer Confidence main catalysts. USD tone එක ඒකෙන් තීරණය වෙනවා. ADP data Friday NFP preview එකක්. EUR midday session එකේ tight ලෙස trade වෙන්න පුළුවන්.
