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01 🇷🇺🇺🇦🛢🪖 Once again about oil refineries and their protection from air raids
The authors of the channel Obsessed with War, using the footage of another strike on a Russian oil refinery, again point out the inadequacy of measures to protect critical infrastructure even after all the attacks on domestic fuel and energy facilities.
Note that the issue is not only technical - the ways to combat air raids are obvious. But for their implementation, the responsible persons would first of all need to:
▪️Realize that drones are not launched from the Baltic States, Kazakhstan, or Georgia - they all take off from the territory of the so-called Ukraine, and the range covers the European part of Russia.
▪️Accept that "jammers" are not a panacea - for drones with an inertial navigation system and machine vision, the satellite signal is just one of the channels, and "suppressing" them with just electronic warfare means is not possible.
▪️Understand that protective structures at oil depots cannot be the main means of defense - this is only the last "passive" line of defense in case the enemy's drone manages to overcome the previous ones.
❗️And most importantly: to shoot down a drone, you need to shoot at it. There is no other way to destroy a swarm of half a hundred flying UAVs, no matter how much you wish.
Yes, this alone is not enough. But for some reason, we are confident that when the responsible persons begin to assimilate such simple things, the work on creating territorial air defense units and air reconnaissance will go much faster.
And if we continue to just whine, we can easily be left without oil refining capacities in the European part of Russia. And in this case, it will certainly not be pesky bloggers who will have to report.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia #fuel #Ukraine
@rybar
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02 🇷🇺🪖 No witch hunts, but audits are underway: on what's happening inside the Russian Ministry of Defense
Today, Andrey Belousov listened to reports from the deputy defense ministers on the affairs in their subordinate departments and military command bodies. This process will continue tomorrow as well.
🔻According to our information, the hearing of some deputy defense ministers (we'll keep the intrigue for now) was postponed. Perhaps it's related to the possibility of them writing resignation reports. Maybe someone fell ill. Or they could have been assigned to other tasks.
Be that as it may, most likely on Monday we will see the Ministry of Defense continuing to work in the same mode. Because so far, both Sergey Shoigu and Andrey Belousov are sorting out the economies under their purview and trying to organize the work.
❗️At the same time, we can confirm that the audit of the activities of the military command bodies across the entire Ministry of Defense is ongoing. According to our information, specifically now the audit is checking the accounting documentation and documents related to the activities of the Main Cathedral of the Armed Forces and the Patriot Park.
Whether this will lead to any consequences or not - we'll find out very soon. As Andrey Belousov said, there are no witch hunts, but they started counting the money in the Ministry of Defense. Especially the funds that have been developed and spent on the most "high-profile" projects.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
@rybar
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03 🇷🇺🪖 No witch hunts, but audits are underway: on what's happening inside the Russian Ministry of Defense
Today, Andrey Belousov listened to reports from the deputy defense ministers on the affairs in their subordinate departments and military command bodies. This process will continue tomorrow as well.
🔻According to our information, the hearing of some deputy defense ministers (we'll keep the intrigue for now) was postponed. Perhaps it's related to the possibility of them writing resignation reports. Maybe someone fell ill. Or they could have been assigned to other tasks.
Be that as it may, most likely on Monday we will see the Ministry of Defense continuing to work in the same mode. Because so far, both Sergey Shoigu and Andrey Belousov are sorting out the economies under their purview and trying to organize the work.
❗️At the same time, we can confirm that the audit of the activities of the military command bodies across the entire Ministry of Defense is ongoing. According to our information, specifically now the audit is checking the accounting documentation and documents related to the activities of the Main Cathedral of the Armed Forces and the Patriot Park.
Whether this will lead to any consequences or not - we'll find out very soon. As Andrey Belousov said, there are no witch hunts, but they started counting the money in the Ministry of Defense. Especially the funds that have been developed and spent on the most "high-profile" projects.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
@rybar
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04 🇷🇺🪖 Possible reshuffles in the Ministry of Defense after the appointment of Andrey Belousov remain a subject of speculation in the media. However, we reiterate - no major dismissals are expected at this stage.
For now, the changes will be limited to just a few individuals from Belousov's team transitioning to the structure of the Russian Ministry of Defense. In particular, Eldar Muslimov, who headed the secretariat of the current Minister of Defense during his work in the government, is likely to follow Belousov.
As we previously wrote, while the process of handing over affairs and getting up to speed is underway, no one will be swinging their saber and chopping positions for media effect. Truly significant personnel decisions are likely to be seen only after some time.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
@rybar
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05 🇨🇳🇷🇺🇺🇸 On the Sale of US Bonds by Chinese Banks
There are currently many reports in the English-language segment of the Internet about the alleged sharp "dumping" of US Treasury bonds by China. Some Russian channels (as in similar situations before) immediately saw this as China slapping the Americans.
And although the sale of US securities is indeed growing, there is an important nuance here that completely changes the impression of what is happening.
📌 The volume of "Treasuries" on the balance sheets of Chinese banks reached its peak in 2013 and has been steadily declining since then. Over the past decade, this volume has decreased by more than 40% and in April 2024 amounted to $797.7 billion. Now the trend to get rid of "Treasuries" in China is intensifying.
In the first quarter of 2024, Chinese banks got rid of Treasury and agency bonds for a total of $53.3 billion, according to calculations based on the latest data from the US Department of the Treasury. Belgium, which is often seen as a custodian of Chinese assets, got rid of Treasury bonds for $22 billion during the specified period.
The most likely reason for this is the outflow of capital from the Chinese economy. In the third quarter of 2023, it amounted to $75 billion, and almost exactly repeats the volumes of funds received from the sale of Treasuries in the first quarter of 2024, which indicates a balanced approach to controlling the yuan exchange rate. These funds are used to stabilize it.
🔻There is no talk of a large-scale trade war on the part of China. But Joe Biden announced a large-scale increase in tariffs on a number of Chinese import goods. Donald Trump said that if elected, he could impose a tax on Chinese goods of more than 60%.
❗️These factors, combined with concerns about global demand for Chinese goods, are the basis for the movement of capital out of the Chinese economy, which requires compensation.
A side effect of the sale of "Treasuries" is the rise in interest rates on them. This overloads the already inflated US public debt and causes an uproar among English-speaking experts.
As China sells dollar assets, the share of gold in the country's official reserves is growing. The share of the precious metal in reserves rose to 4.9% in April, which is the highest figure according to central bank data since 2015.
China and countries with close economic ties to it have increased their gold reserves in foreign exchange reserves since 2015, while countries in the US bloc have largely kept them stable. The purchase of gold by some central banks may be due to concerns about sanctions risks.
🔻The current sale of "Treasuries" by China should not be perceived as some kind of escalation. China is pursuing a balanced economic policy based primarily on national interests. But a positive factor for Russia is the presence of a neighbor with a stable economy, with sufficient resources to carry out such economic measures.
#China #USA
@rybar
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06 🇷🇺🇺🇦✈️ Today, the prosecutor's office of the so-called Ukraine announced the nationalization of two passenger An-148 aircraft, loudly claiming that the aircraft allegedly belonged to the Russian state corporation "Rostec" and were leased to a local carrier before the start of the SMO.
Ukrainian resources picked up the news, talking about the "damage to the largest weapons manufacturer of the aggressor". But there's a small nuance: both planes were sold to a company in Cyprus back in August 2021 due to maintenance difficulties. By the way, this was quite openly reported by the Russian media.
📌 It turns out to be a funny situation: for two whole years, the prosecutor's office of the Kyiv regime selflessly fought bureaucracy in order to eventually report the confiscation of planes. The same ones that not only already belonged to the so-called Ukraine, but were also previously bought with money from Russia.
In general, a good illustration of what (and how) the prosecutor's office and other similar bodies are engaged in on the so-called Ukraine.
#aviation #Russia #Ukraine
@rybar
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07 🇦🇲🇪🇺 On the Preparation of Logistics Infrastructure for the Zangezur Corridor
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) provided Armenia with a €236 million loan for the construction of the "North-South" corridor road section from Kajaran to Sisian. This was announced at the EBRD business forum in Yerevan.
The road section passes through the Syunik region of Armenia, where the Turkish and Azerbaijani authorities plan to open the "Zangezur Corridor", which will connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, as well as with Turkey.
▪️From a political standpoint, the "Zangezur Corridor" will recreate Turkic unity, and the "corridor logic" will limit Armenia's sovereignty over its southern territories and logistics. Turkey is already voicing ideas about granting special status to infrastructure in the Syunik region.
▪️From an economic standpoint, the "Zangezur Corridor" is also beneficial for the West, which is now trying to implement the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route ("Middle Corridor").
▪️Armenia is not yet involved in the project, but the potential opening of the "Zangezur Corridor" through the Syunik region will increase the capacity of the TITR and shorten its route.
▪️At the EBRD forum in Yerevan, the EU Commissioner outlined the benefits of opening communication from the EU to Central Asia through Armenia, essentially speaking about the Azerbaijani-Turkish "Zangezur Corridor" project.
▪️Moreover, the EBRD and USAID signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) at the forum on the development of the TITR, which implies investments not only in transport infrastructure in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, but also in promoting anti-corruption reforms and expanding engagement with civil society in the region. After all, the creation of West-controlled infrastructure requires deeper involvement in local institutions.
🔻It is obvious that there is no place for a sovereign Armenia in such large-scale projects, as the republic is already being viewed solely as an object of external manipulation. The Armenian authorities no longer have the resources and will to defend their interests against the Azerbaijani side, which will put forward new demands for territorial concessions and will be the beneficiary of global projects in the region at the expense of absorbing neighboring territories.
#Azerbaijan #Armenia #globalism
@rybar
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08 Rybar Live: Situation in Asia and the Pacific, May 16
Mikhail Zvinchuk, head of the Russian think tank Rybar: «The US benefits from the Europeans imposing their tariffs. They can significantly hit China, which has about 40% of all electric car exports to Europe» | 1 736 | 3 | Loading... |
09 Rybar Live: Situation in the Middle East, May 16
Mikhail Zvinchuk, head of the Russian think tank Rybar: «If Jewish communities vote for Trump and provide him with networking, connections and so on, the situation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zone will change. Israel will once again be showered with golden rain» | 1 948 | 5 | Loading... |
10 🇰🇵🇰🇷🇺🇸 The situation on the Korean Peninsula remains tense
In late May, the first meeting of US and South Korean special operations forces commanders will take place. Their tasks include infiltrating North Korea in the event of war, for example, to assassinate Kim Jong-un.
According to local media reports, American special forces will advise their South Korean counterparts on improving their skills and using equipment for special operations. The parties will also discuss the possibility of joint training.
▪️Apparently, the parties are working out scenarios for infiltrating North Korea to eliminate its military and political leadership in the event of a serious escalation on the peninsula. For South Korea, this is necessary to prevent a nuclear strike from North Korea - since the decision to use nuclear weapons is made by the country's leader.
▪️However, the possibility of implementing such a plan is not mentioned too often in Seoul - the last time it was openly discussed was by the defense minister under the previous president. And in December 2023, the current head of the defense department spoke about a similar operation.
Of course, neither the exercises nor the meeting of special operations commanders is a major step towards escalation. However, if such training is carried out, North Korea's reaction will not keep itself waiting. This, in turn, will increase the degree of tension on the Korean Peninsula, albeit not to critical levels.
#NorthKorea #SouthKorea #USA
@rybar together with @awaken_dragon
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11 ❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Massive AFU strike on southern Russia overnight on May 16-17, 2024
Ukrainian forces carried out the largest-scale drone attack on Sevastopol and the Krasnodar Region, launching over 140 aerial vehicles and 20 maritime drones in total.
🔻In Sevastopol, the attack lasted for several hours. Drones approached from three directions in the Odesa Region: attacks were recorded in the Sevastopol Bay, near Cape Fiolent, and in the Balaklava area.
▪️In total, units of the 31st Air Force and Air Defense Division shot down 46 UAVs, five were suppressed by electronic warfare means. Another nine drones were destroyed by small arms units of the Crimean Defense Group.
▪️However, there was some damage: one of the suppressed UAVs still managed to reach the Balaklava TPP. As a result, most of the city was left without electricity. Restoration of power supply is currently underway (at least two-thirds of subscribers are already connected).
▪️Simultaneously with the UAV raid, seven unmanned boats attacked the Sevastopol Bay. Four of them managed to break through the boom barriers and were destroyed at close range, and another three were shot down near Sevastopol.
▪️The eighth USV was immobilized by a naval aviation helicopter, and its photos on the Crimean coast eventually went viral. The ninth drone was also shot down about an hour ago west of Sevastopol.
🔻The AFU also attacked the Krasnodar Region. The main strike was on Novorossiysk. The targets were oil depots, an industrial zone, and the city port. As of 12:00, more than 60 UAVs have been shot down over Novorossiysk and in the nearby approaches.
▪️There is information that USVs were used to attack the port, but we cannot confirm or deny this at the moment.
▪️Given the flight path of the drones, they most likely approached Novorossiysk through the Sea of Azov, and the launch was probably carried out from the Zaporizhia Region.
▪️In addition, an oil depot in Tuapse was attacked in the early morning. Local channels published a video of the drone's arrival. The UAV flew through the mountains, indicating that it bypassed Novorossiysk and entered from the rear through Goryachiy Klyuch, avoiding air defense positions.
❗️As we can clearly see, the AFU attacks have again grown in the number of means used. This is the largest attack during the entire SMO, aimed at striking energy facilities in Sevastopol and the Krasnodar Region, as well as overloading air defense systems.
Currently, there are local problems in several districts of Sevastopol, with planned power-saving outages in the city to carry out repair and restoration work, but the main strike was still repelled.
However, we should not relax. Remember last year's tactics? After massive UAV raids, an equally large-scale missile attack follows, so this should be expected now as well.
High-resolution map
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12 Rybar Live: Special military operation, May 16
Mikhail Zvinchuk, head of the Russian think tank Rybar: «There's a lot of excitement under Georgievka. We've practically taken Georgievka» | 1 748 | 3 | Loading... |
13 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Clarification Vladimir Putin's statement about the "present day" was not made by chance.
For our part, we can confirm that at this stage, plans are being drawn up and adjusted based on the evolving situation on the battlefield. In case of a favorable development - we move forward. If we hit a dead end, then a different plan is implemented.
This approach allows us to preserve personnel, not declare goals that cannot be achieved, and also leave room for maneuver.
There was also a lot of talk about the lack of plans to enter the Kharkiv region in the past year and a half. As we can see, in the end, everything changed based on the evolving situation (just in time to accumulate forces and create a reserve of ammunition and fire strike means).
#Russia #Ukraine #Kharkiv
@rybar
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14 ❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 On the "halt" of the Russian offensive on Kharkiv: what's the nuance?
First, Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces managed to stop the advance of the Russian army in the Slobozhansky direction. At the same time, the Commander-in-Chief of the AFU Syrskyi claims that there is a risk of encirclement of the Kharkiv group of the AFU by Russian troops.
And they are both right, but there is, as usual, a nuance.
▪️More than 30 AFU battalions have been redeployed to the sector (for comparison: Chasiv Yar is held by half the forces). Given that the Russian Armed Forces have taken only the first line of defense and the gray zone, the enemy has now redeployed significant forces to the pre-prepared positions. They need to be dislodged and put out of action.
▪️The number of footage of destroyed and burned-out AFU equipment ("Lancets", KABs, FABs on JDAM) is overwhelming: "Lancets" are flying at individual vehicles and mortar crews, FPV drones are operating. We don't remember a section of the front where, during the offensive of the Russian army, so many video frames of fire damage were released. And this is only what has made it to the Internet.
▪️Despite the 30+ enemy battalions in this sector of the front, the Russian Armed Forces are still moving forward: the Lira-1 dacha community has been passed and the assault on Liptsy has begun, the area of control has been expanded near Lukiiantsi, the northern Vovchansk is being cleared and the area of control is expanding to the east of it. This indicates that flooding the front with manpower at the current stage is an approach that does not allow the AFU to stabilize the front.
▪️Air defense assets have been concentrated around Kharkiv: near Chuhuiv, the entire range from "Patriots" to IRIS and SAMP-T is recorded. This has forced the AFU to leave areas in the rear unprotected, which have now become much more vulnerable to Russian ballistics, cruise missiles and drones.
▪️The encirclement of the AFU grouping is indeed possible: if the Russian Armed Forces launch an offensive in the Sumy region and at the junction with the Kharkiv region (or, conversely, to the east of Vovchansk), this scenario is potentially possible. The AFU is betting too heavily on holding the first line of defense.
📌 Overall, the current status of the operation of the Russian Armed Forces in the Slobozhansky direction demonstrates the main thing: people must be accompanied by resourcefulness, skill, competent planning, and the ability to work as part of a reconnaissance-strike loop.
Otherwise, of course, you can flood the front with "meat", but this will give a completely different result: the Ukrainian counteroffensive of 2023 will not lie.
#Russia #Ukraine #Kharkiv
@rybar
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15 🇷🇺🪖 And again about the case of Yuri Kuznetsov.
The documents published by the authors of Revenge of Good Will regarding corruption at the Krasnodar Cryptography School (a subsidiary of the 8th Service for the Protection of State Secrets, whose head was Yuri Kuznetsov) confirm one simple thesis. They knew about everything, saw everything, it was all known, but they did not react.
But it turns out that there is compromising material on everyone and everyone.
It's just that right now a certain command "Attack!" has sounded, they decided to add some positivity to the people at the front (news about dismissals and arrests incredibly motivates people at the forefront), and from a political point of view, they provided an excellent start for the new Minister of Defense Andrey Belousov in his new position.
And from this situation, there is one simple conclusion: there are many such cases stored in the "stashes". And with the presence of a command to unwind them, it is not such a big problem.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
@rybar
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16 🇬🇪🇱🇹 On the Threats from "Errand Boys"
The other day, during a visit to Tbilisi, representatives of the authorities of the Baltic countries and Iceland took the lead in Western support for President Salome Zourabichvili. In particular, the common position was expressed by the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis - he stated that the adoption of the law on foreign agents would close Georgia's path to the EU and NATO. However, the possibility of withdrawing the bill "still exists".
Landsbergis also went to meet with Georgian protesters, expressed solidarity with them and called for openly talking about what "the current policy means for the Georgian future". There was also no shortage of mentions of Moscow, which "is not interested in a happy outcome of this story".
And yesterday, the speaker of the Georgian parliament, Shalva Papuashvili, essentially called the actions of the authorities of Iceland, Lithuania and Estonia, who took part in the rally against the law on foreign agents, an attempt at a coup d'état. Moreover, Papuashvili let slip that some in the governments of the Baltic partner countries have gone too far in their own rhetoric, and the participation of foreign politicians in such a protest action is a symptom that the Russian government has passed on part of its worldview to its most ardent opponents.
It is worth noting here that the visit of the Baltic and Icelandic representatives (the latter formally legalize one or another step of the authorities of each of the three countries for more than a hundred years) had a very specific goal, which no one hid: to convey a certain signal to the Georgian government. In addition, they should confirm the status of Zourabichvili as the "central figure" who explains to the West what is happening and mobilizes people to take active action.
In this case, we have a walking illustration of the thesis - what kind of figure, such is the support. The "vanguard" from the Baltic countries is often thrown into the political breach as a demonstration of Western benevolence - but substantial support and real prospects are extremely rare.
Moreover, both Georgian and Baltic politicians are behaving relatively restrained so far - the former in order not to seriously harm Lithuanian logistics companies in the Caucasus and Central Asia, and the latter - in order not to complicate interaction with states where dirty money of post-Soviet politicians is most often laundered. By the way, representatives of the Latvian Foreign Ministry, who are more involved in these affairs than their neighbors, preferred not to appear at the rally of the Georgian opposition at all.
#Georgia #Baltics
@rybar together with @estlatlitv
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17 🇲🇩🇷🇴 Here is the English translation:
Romanian Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu has once again stated that Moldovans and the Moldovan language do not exist.
According to Ciolacu, Moldova, which he exclusively calls Bessarabia, is inhabited by Romanians who speak Romanian and should join Romania. This is why Bucharest is so persistently pushing for the European integration of Moldova, which is a cover for the annexation of the post-Soviet republic.
▪️Moldovan opposition deputies demanded that the government protest against the Romanian authorities due to their repeated anti-Moldovan statements.
▪️The opposition also demanded to hear the head of the Moldovan Foreign Ministry Nicu Popșoi on the issue, but the PAS party refused. After all, in the ruling party, everyone has Romanian passports, including Popșoi and President Maia Sandu.
▪️The Romanian Prime Minister also added that Bucharest will help their citizen Sandu to be re-elected, as "there is no other democratic solution for Bessarabia" than unification with Romania.
📊 Indeed, there are no real democratic paths for the unification of the two countries, as neither the citizens of Romania nor Moldova support the unification of the republics. According to opinion polls, only 8% of Moldovans approve of this idea.
🔻Nevertheless, the Romanian authorities are actively working to destroy Moldovan statehood and identity, with the help of Sandu's team. The country's Constitution has already renamed the Moldovan language to Romanian, and Bucharest finances the discrediting of the Moldovan Metropolis of the Russian Orthodox Church and buys up all the strategic assets of the republic.
Currently, a census is also underway in Moldova, and the authorities are calling on Moldovans to register as Romanians, which is intended to create another argument for the Romanian authorities to exercise the right to deploy troops in the neighboring country to "protect their citizens".
#Moldova #Romania
@rybar
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18 Fwd from @infomil_live
The enemy publishes high-resolution satellite images of the consequences of missile strikes with MGM-140 ATACMS on the Belbek airbase in Crimea on May 16.
As a result of the attack, two MiG-31 and one Su-27 were completely destroyed, and a MiG-29 was also damaged.
It goes without saying that even the simplest shelters, if they had existed, would have noticeably reduced the damage, since the AFU used the cluster ATACMS, and most of the M74 cluster munitions would have exploded against the roofs of the shelters. But there were no shelters, and there still aren't - we have our own way.
In fact, the invulnerability of the senior generals responsible for this is even enviable - they could not be convinced by the strikes on the Saki airbase in the summer of 2022 with the loss of aircraft, nor by the constant drone attempts to attack the airbases, nor by the supply of long-range missiles to the AFU. We are sure that these missile strikes will not lead to anything, after all, the people do not want to change anything on principle, and aviation is cheaper than shelters.
Informant Original msg | 4 815 | 31 | Loading... |
19 ❗️🌍🎞 The escalation of the situation in the Middle East: highlights of the week May 10 - 16, 2024
▪️Yemen's Houthis have claimed another attack in the Red Sea region. The targets were a US ship and a dry cargo ship. However, the launched missiles were shot down by anti-Houthi coalition ships.
▪️The Syrian Army continues to strike various targets in the militant-controlled part of Aleppo and Idlib provinces. Despite some increase in the number of strikes, there is no talk of an offensive operation yet.
▪️Demonstrations against the Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham terrorist group took place in the militant-controlled part of Idlib. At one of these demonstrations, clashes broke out between protesters and militia forces.
▪️The Syrian and Russian air forces conducted a joint operation against ISIS militants in the desert in the south of the country. Several airstrikes were launched on the places of concentration and hideouts of Al-Tanf natives.
▪️A US-led coalition reconnaissance balloon in Syria was shot down by unknown assailants near the village of Rumailan. It is noteworthy that no one has yet claimed responsibility. However, technical malfunctions are not excluded.
▪️Turkish artillery launched several strikes on Kurdish-controlled areas in the vicinity of Tell Rifaat. No damage or casualties were reported.
▪️In response, the Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces launched strikes on the Turkish-occupied part of Syria. Positions of pro-Turkish Syrian National Army near Azaz were shelled.
▪️Another IS attack occurred in the countryside between Diyala and Salah Al-Din provinces. A colonel and four Iraqi Armed Forces soldiers were killed.
#video #map #Yemen #Syria #Iraq
@rybar
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20 ❗️🌍🎞 Escalation of the Situation in the Middle East: Events of the Week May 10 - 16, 2024
▪️ Yemeni Houthis reported another attack in the Red Sea region. The targets were an American ship and a bulk carrier. However, the launched missiles were shot down by the anti-Houthi coalition ships.
▪️ The Syrian army continues to strike various targets in the militant-controlled parts of Aleppo and Idlib provinces. Despite a slight increase in the number of strikes, there is no talk of an offensive operation yet.
▪️ In the militant-controlled part of Idlib, demonstrations were held against the terrorist group "Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham". Clashes broke out between protesters and armed groups at one of these rallies.
▪️ In the desert in the south of the country, Syrian and Russian air forces conducted a joint operation against ISIL militants. Several airstrikes followed on the concentration points and hideouts of the militants from At-Tanf.
▪️ In the area of the settlement of Rumeilan, unknown persons shot down a reconnaissance aerostat of the American coalition in Syria. It is noteworthy that no one has claimed responsibility yet. However, technical malfunctions are also not excluded.
▪️ Turkish artillery struck several times at the Kurdish-controlled areas around Tell Rifaat. There were no reports of destruction and casualties among the local population.
▪️ In response, the Kurdish "Syrian Democratic Forces" struck at the part of Syria occupied by Turkey. The positions of the pro-Turkish "Syrian National Army" in the vicinity of Azaz were shelled.
#video #digest #map #Yemen #Syria #Iraq
@rybar
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21 Fwd from @boris_rozhin
The enemy has published satellite images of the aftermath of the strike on the Belbek airfield.
The images show 2 burned-out aircraft and a burned-out building (apparently a warehouse). Original msg | 3 321 | 10 | Loading... |
22 🇷🇺🇺🇦 Chronicles of the special military operation
for May 16, 2024
Over the past day, the Russian Armed Forces struck targets in Myrhorod, as well as objects in the Kharkiv, Chernihiv and Sumy Regions. In turn, Ukrainian formations carried out another combined attack on Crimea.
In the Slobozhansky direction, Russian troops are advancing with fighting towards the northern outskirts of Lyptsi, in Volchansk there are ongoing heavy clashes with the enemy, who is pulling up reserves towards Kharkiv.
In the Bakhmut direction, the Russian Armed Forces are striking the positions of the AFU in Chasiv Yar and its environs. Positional battles are ongoing north and south of the city.
In the Avdiivka direction, clashes continue north of Arkhanhel'ske and in the fields west of Berdychi.
In the Donetsk direction, Russian troops have reached the western outskirts of Georgiivka, clearing the last houses on Central Street. The development on Pishchana Street remains under the control of the enemy.
🔻A detailed analytical report on the events in the Special Military Operation zone is available on our closed channel @rybar_plus_bot
High-resolution maps:
Situation in the special military operation zone (ru; en)
Slobozhansky direction (ru; en)
Donetsk direction (ru; en)
#Avdiivka #Bakhmut #Donetsk #digest #report #map #Crimea #Russia #Ukraine
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23 🇮🇱🇵🇸 Escalation in the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict Zone
Chronicle of events for May 16, 2024
In the north of the Gaza Strip, the Israeli forces are conducting an operation in the eastern part of Jabalia. In the south of the city of Gaza, counter-terrorist raids in the Az-Zeitun district have been completed, where the civilian population began to return after the withdrawal of the Israel Defense Forces.
In the south of the enclave, fighting also continues in the vicinity of Rafah. The Israeli military command approved a plan to expand the scale of offensive operations, but there is no talk of an offensive on the city yet.
In the West Bank, Israeli security forces carried out a campaign of raids, which became the largest in recent times. In addition, attacks were carried out on IDF soldiers in Huwwara and Haifa, as a result of which several people were injured.
And the Iranian proxies from the "Islamic Resistance in Iraq" reported the launch of kamikaze drones at the Haifa refinery and some object in Eilat. However, there were no reports of explosions and activation of the Israeli air defense systems once again.
🔻A detailed analytical report on the events in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zone is available on our closed channel @rybar_plus_bot
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#digest #map #Israel #Palestine #report
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24 ❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Donetsk direction: Russian Armed Forces advance to the western outskirts of Heorhiivka
situation as of the end of May 16, 2024
In late April and early May, Russian troops were able to make significant advances in the center of Heorhiivka, capturing the territory of the "Silhozkhimiia" enterprise and the House of Culture building. After that, they continued the attack, reaching the western outskirts of the settlement.
▪️According to the latest data, today units of the Russian Armed Forces took the last two houses on Tsentralna Street, effectively driving Ukrainian formations out of the village. One building on the outskirts remained under the control of the enemy, but it was destroyed by an air strike, along with the basement.
At the moment, the fighters of the 150th Motorized Rifle Division are consolidating on the lines they have taken in Heorhiivka. However, it is not excluded that in parallel with the "pulling up of the flanks," the Russian Armed Forces will attempt to "jump into" Maksymilianovka as well.
▪️In another area, fighting continues in Krasnohorivka, where Russian troops are trying to advance from the previously captured territory of the refractory plant. At the same time, the fate of several AFU units surrounded to the east of the city remains unknown.
▪️At the same time, Ukrainian formations continue to shell the Donetsk agglomeration, including with HIMARS MLRS. In particular, at one of the impact sites, debris resembling GSLDB bombs was found - this is the first documented use of such ammunition against residential areas of Donetsk.
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#Belgorod #digest #map #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkiv
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25 🇦🇿🇳🇨🇫🇷 The French authorities have apparently found the culprits behind the events in New Caledonia: they named Azerbaijan as the cause of the unrest and have already expressed a protest to the Azerbaijani government.
It would seem: what does Azerbaijan, located more than ten thousand kilometers away from the overseas territory in the Pacific Ocean, have to do with it? However, it's not that simple: the interests of the two countries collided earlier on the issue of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, and New Caledonia has simply become another arena of confrontation.
🔻The involvement of the French in the Caucasus, where they became the supposed defenders of the Armenians, was the first round. In Paris, they tried to earn both politically and financially from the conflict.
Azerbaijan, with an ally in Israel, wanted to get all of Armenia. Of course, looking at the actions of the Armenian authorities, one increasingly understands that the Azerbaijanis will eventually get what they want, but the clash of interests itself became a turning point in the relations between the countries.
And as proof of Azerbaijan's involvement in the Asia-Pacific region, one should simply observe the actions of Azerbaijani resources and Telegram channels, which are reviewing the situation in New Caledonia and calling for decolonization as if the fate of all of Azerbaijan depended on it.
#Azerbaijan #NewCaledonia #France
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26 🇸🇰 On the Brewing Crisis in Slovakia
Today, the Slovak Interior Minister Suleiman Estok stated that the attack on Prime Minister Robert Fico had political motives and now, given the conflict between the Prime Minister and President Zuzana Čaputová, "the country is almost on the brink of civil war".
▪️ We do not yet see grounds to believe this statement and expect immediate developments. Slovak political expert Miroslav Kamenský @miroslavkamensky notes that opposition circles probably expected Fico to recuse himself on health grounds (such an outcome is possible under Slovak law), but as we see, this did not happen.
▪️ It is also quite logical that the Interior Minister, who allowed an assassination attempt on the second person in the state, has nothing else to do but to exculpate himself. He is echoed by local liberal media, which have launched an aggressive information campaign against the ruling coalition and the Prime Minister in particular.
▪️ As our source from Slovakia told us, this is currently further fueling the discontent of citizens who support Fico's policies and him personally.
▪️ Our colleagues from @casusbellilive note that the fact of Fico's stable condition greatly upset the Ukrainian segment of Telegram, where any news about the Slovak politician now causes a wave of negativity (another touch to the bloodthirstiness of Ukrainians).
📌 In general, we continue to believe that the assassination attempt on Fico was a political provocation aimed at causing negativity among all - pro-Russian, pro-Ukrainian, and neutral parties. It is possible that even louder statements than forecasting a civil war will be made to maintain the hype, especially given that the likelihood of discovering a Ukrainian trace remains high.
#Slovakia
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27 ❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦Slobozhansky direction: Advances of the Russian Armed Forces near Liptsy and fighting in Volchansk
Situation as of the end of May 16, 2024
In the course of the offensive in the Kharkiv Region, Russian forces continue to engage in battles in the northern part of Volchansk, as well as on the approaches to Lipetsk. The advance is proceeding with heavy fighting and is accompanied by the assault of numerous strongholds.
🔻In Volchansk, Russian Armed Forces units are storming the industrial zone of the Aggregate Plant, which they reached some time ago. Next to the factory gate is the Gurkanovsky Bridge over the Volchya River, which serves as a natural defensive line and divides the city in two.
Further advance along Gurkanovsky Street and the Lenin Street to the west may be complicated by the high density of mining in the private sector development. In the southern part of the city, the enemy has also set up firing positions and is preparing for defense.
Another area of fierce clashes is the territory of the Volchansk City Hospital. In the morning, a video appeared with servicemen on the territory of the complex: most likely, the footage was taken a couple of days ago, but it objectively confirms the control of the Russian Armed Forces over the object.
🔻On another section of the front, after the liberation of the village of Hlubokoye, Russian forces advanced into the territory of the Lira-1 Gardeners' Partnership, reaching the outskirts of Lipetsk. No changes were recorded in the area of Zelene - the offensive is complicated by minefields and a network of strongholds around.
At the moment, the enemy is transferring more and more forces: in particular, in addition to the units of the 92nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade, the personnel of the "Lyut" Brigade have arrived in one of the sectors. At the same time, reinforcements from the newly mobilized are arriving in the combat zone from training centers in Dnipro and other cities.
❗️The increased intensity of artillery fire and air defense missile launches testifies to the forces that the AFU have concentrated around Kharkiv. One of the problems is also the large number of FPV drones used by Ukrainian formations, which complicate the advance and supply of forward positions.
At the same time, the Russian servicemen operating in the area note the relatively high efficiency of strikes with guided aerial bombs with JDAM, as well as the Lancet loitering munitions.
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#Belgorod #digest #map #Russia #Ukraine #Kharkiv
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28 🇨🇳🇷🇺 Today, Russian President Vladimir Putin began his two-day visit to China - this morning, talks were already held with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The Russian delegation includes a larger number of politicians and businessmen, so the parties will definitely discuss a wide range of issues.
▪️One of the main problems in bilateral relations is the suspension of part of the banking settlements between the states - the presence of the head of the Russian Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina in the delegation indicates that the parties will clearly discuss this issue.
So far, Vladimir Putin has stated that Russia and China will continue to strengthen contacts through credit and banking institutions. The results of such interaction and negotiations on the issue of settlements, it seems, can be seen in the near future.
▪️Another subject of discussion was cooperation in the energy sector. At the same time, the parties have not yet publicly mentioned one of the main joint projects - the "Power of Siberia-2" gas pipeline.
According to statements by the Chinese Ambassador to Russia, Russian and Chinese companies are still discussing not only the gas price, but also the commercial aspects of the project. However, such delays are not out of the ordinary - the same "Power of Siberia-1" pipeline was negotiated for more than 10 years.
📌 In general, the visit of the Russian president is very symbolic in itself - this is Vladimir Putin's first foreign trip after re-election. Last year, Xi Jinping also visited Russia after his re-appointment as Chairman of the PRC. This emphasizes the nature of the relationship between the countries and allows us to assume how they will develop further.
#China #Russia
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29 🇷🇺🪖✈️ The lack of shelters for Russian aircraft after two years of combat operations and losses from Ukrainian drone strikes is explained even more simply - somewhere, a fundamental decision was made not to build them. As we wrote last year, there are no other clear explanations for this situation.
Whatever one may say, it is not the local authorities who should be providing airfields with heavy metal canopies and even reinforced concrete hangars - they do not have the authority or the funds for this. This is a task at a much higher level, but for some inexplicable reasons, someone is not rushing to fulfill it.
By the way, in the context of the negative consequences of the lack of shelters, the economic aspect is often mentioned, but the pilots who have to take off to another airfield every time drones are launched are overlooked. This not only wastes the resource of the aircraft, but also additionally exhausts the already tired flight crew.
❗️Alas, but we have to repeat once again that even reinforced concrete structures with steel doors will cost the budget much less than fighters or bombers destroyed on the ground. These are worth billions and are "custom-made", and their losses cannot be made up for in a year (and in some cases, it is impossible at all).
Perhaps, with the latest changes in the Ministry of Defense, this priority issue will be moved off the dead center. At least, one wants to believe in this.
#aviation #RussianArmedForces #Russia
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30 🇪🇺🇨🇳🇺🇸 The US-China trade war is escalating
Recently, Joe Biden imposed tariffs on imports of electric vehicles, solar panels, steel, aluminum, and other categories of goods from China.
However, there is a high probability that these measures are largely driven by the current administration's desire to "outdo" Donald Trump and his tariffs on Chinese goods, thereby gaining the support of a portion of the American population during the election campaign.
Indeed, the tariffs on some goods seem, to put it mildly, absurd. For example, the US accounts for only 1.1% of China's total electric vehicle exports, while the main suppliers of the same solar panels to the US are Vietnam, Thailand, and Malaysia.
📌 On the other hand, these measures have a kind of "double bottom": they are needed not only to achieve results in the presidential race, but also to put pressure on the European Union. Currently, there is an investigation there due to Chinese subsidies for electric vehicle production, which may result in the imposition of tariffs by the EU.
Against the backdrop of Germany, Sweden, and other EU members opposing these restrictions, the American measures look like a political signal to the European Union. After all, the possible introduction of European tariffs could significantly hit China, which accounts for about 40% of its total electric vehicle exports to Europe.
This result fits well into the American policy of containing China, in the wake of which the European Union has recently been working.
#EC #China #USA
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31 ❗️🇷🇺🇺🇦 Destruction of Ukrainian USVs near Crimea
The Ministry of Defense reported the destruction of first 11 drones southwest of Sevastopol, and then information appeared about another unmanned surface vessel destroyed near Crimea. Together with yesterday's USV near Chornomorske, a total of 13 units have been hit.
We would add that these are the same two groups of drones that went out to the Black Sea yesterday around midnight. They were observed near Tarkhankut, but then turned around and left for the waiting area in the western part of the water area.
Today around 1 pm, two groups of USVs totaling up to 24 units headed towards the Crimean peninsula, but their movement was detected in advance. Naval aviation helicopters were sent there to intercept them.
For several hours, the helicopter crews fired at the maneuvering drones, thereby thwarting the enemy's plan. It is not entirely clear where the drones were heading, but we do not exclude the possibility of the Crimean Bridge.
An important point is that our units were able to detect the impending attack and subsequently destroy half of the USVs, which indicates an increase in capabilities both in terms of finding drones and destroying them, despite various modifications.
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#Crimea #Russia #Ukraine
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32 🇳🇨🇫🇷 Unrest in New Caledonia — how events are unfolding
In the French overseas territory on the islands in the Pacific Ocean, the erupted riots have not subsided. The ban on public gatherings did not have the desired effect, so the French authorities were forced to declare a state of emergency in New Caledonia for the next 12 days.
Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced the deployment of troops to restore order - a contingent of several hundred law enforcement personnel was transferred from Marseille. Access to the social network TikTok, which France has called an instrument for inciting unrest, has been blocked in the country.
▪️Although in Paris they planned to stop the riots in a few hours, they have not been able to do so so far. The rioters are deliberately attacking warehouses and administration, while the police and army are primarily trying to protect airports and critical infrastructure.
▪️There are about five thousand rioters, local indigenous Kanaks. The majority are operating in the capital Noumea, where the rebels have blocked several highways with burned-out cars.
▪️So far, three protesters and two police officers have been killed, and the number of wounded runs into the hundreds on both sides. The French representation in the country reported the arrest of more than 200 people, with five of them arrested on suspicion of inciting and financing the protests.
❗️The French authorities accuse the radical supporters of independence CCAT (Field Action Co-ordination Cell), which stands behind all the recent protests in the country, of organizing the riots. The official reason for the unrest is the decision of the authorities in Paris to allow French citizens residing in New Caledonia for more than 10 years to vote in local elections.
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#NewCaledonia #France
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33 🇷🇺🇺🇦🖇 Against the backdrop of fighting in the Kharkiv region, the British Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has released a report with the headline "Russia is beginning to compound its advantages", which highlights several claims:
▪️Due to the increased strikes by the Russian Aerospace Forces using gliding bombs, the AFU is forced to concentrate its air defense systems on the most dangerous areas to fight Russian aircraft, as a result of which Russian UAVs operate more freely deep behind the front line.
▪️This leads to increased effectiveness of strikes on targets in the Ukrainian rear - as an example, the recent destruction of two Mi-24 helicopters in the Dnipropetrovsk region is cited. The author also notes that the Russian forces previously rarely managed to successfully carry out such attacks, but the situation has now changed.
▪️Russian attacks in several directions stretch the AFU forces and increase ammunition consumption, the stocks of which are limited. Increasing Western supplies and a significant increase in the number of Ukrainian personnel on the front lines could help rectify the situation.
On the one hand, it is quite interesting to observe how the growth of the fire, reconnaissance and other capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces are gradually being recognized even in the Western media sphere, which is often still captive to its own propaganda narratives.
At the same time, RUSI emphasizes the inevitability of expanding the draft into the AFU. Against the backdrop of the upcoming entry into force of the law on expanding mobilization, this again indicates that the "war to the last Ukrainian" remains the main scenario of the collective West in the so-called Ukraine.
#media_technologies #Russia #Ukraine
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34 Fwd from @BattleSailor13
-Did your mother write that you were at the war?
-No, he sat it out in the headquarters as a clerk.
-Can you shoot at least?
-They took me to the shooting range...
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🇷🇺🇺🇦🛢🪖 Once again about oil refineries and their protection from air raids
The authors of the channel Obsessed with War, using the footage of another strike on a Russian oil refinery, again point out the inadequacy of measures to protect critical infrastructure even after all the attacks on domestic fuel and energy facilities.
Note that the issue is not only technical - the ways to combat air raids are obvious. But for their implementation, the responsible persons would first of all need to:
▪️Realize that drones are not launched from the Baltic States, Kazakhstan, or Georgia - they all take off from the territory of the so-called Ukraine, and the range covers the European part of Russia.
▪️Accept that "jammers" are not a panacea - for drones with an inertial navigation system and machine vision, the satellite signal is just one of the channels, and "suppressing" them with just electronic warfare means is not possible.
▪️Understand that protective structures at oil depots cannot be the main means of defense - this is only the last "passive" line of defense in case the enemy's drone manages to overcome the previous ones.
❗️And most importantly: to shoot down a drone, you need to shoot at it. There is no other way to destroy a swarm of half a hundred flying UAVs, no matter how much you wish.
Yes, this alone is not enough. But for some reason, we are confident that when the responsible persons begin to assimilate such simple things, the work on creating territorial air defense units and air reconnaissance will go much faster.
And if we continue to just whine, we can easily be left without oil refining capacities in the European part of Russia. And in this case, it will certainly not be pesky bloggers who will have to report.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia #fuel #Ukraine
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Повёрнутые на Z войне 🇷🇺
Снова атака на нефтянку, снова Туапсе. Снова одиночные пуки слышны и не созданы посты, огневые позиции с ЗУ-23-2 и прочими средствами, короче говоря, отбиваемся цистернами. Не стреляем, нет штатов, нет распоряжений, нет статуса, сплошные бумажки. Генерал-адмирал и политик всё верит в чудодейственный РЭБ. Бюрократия убивает нашу страну. P.S. для совсем дремучих дебилов, это видео есть уже во всех хохлячих пабликах.
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🇷🇺🪖 No witch hunts, but audits are underway: on what's happening inside the Russian Ministry of Defense
Today, Andrey Belousov listened to reports from the deputy defense ministers on the affairs in their subordinate departments and military command bodies. This process will continue tomorrow as well.
🔻According to our information, the hearing of some deputy defense ministers (we'll keep the intrigue for now) was postponed. Perhaps it's related to the possibility of them writing resignation reports. Maybe someone fell ill. Or they could have been assigned to other tasks.
Be that as it may, most likely on Monday we will see the Ministry of Defense continuing to work in the same mode. Because so far, both Sergey Shoigu and Andrey Belousov are sorting out the economies under their purview and trying to organize the work.
❗️At the same time, we can confirm that the audit of the activities of the military command bodies across the entire Ministry of Defense is ongoing. According to our information, specifically now the audit is checking the accounting documentation and documents related to the activities of the Main Cathedral of the Armed Forces and the Patriot Park.
Whether this will lead to any consequences or not - we'll find out very soon. As Andrey Belousov said, there are no witch hunts, but they started counting the money in the Ministry of Defense. Especially the funds that have been developed and spent on the most "high-profile" projects.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
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Рыбарь
🇷🇺🪖 Садовенко, Шевцова, Панков, Конашенков, Цаликов — сколько уже фамилий известных военных чиновников гуляет по TG-каналам? Всем прочат отставку. Все вроде как в преддверии завтрашней Коллегии Минобороны России готовятся уйти и менять место службы. То ли отправляясь следом за Сергеем Шойгу, то ли просто уходя на заслуженный отдых (наверное, потому, что Шойгу их не отпускал). Пошедшие валом сообщения о поданных рапортах об отставках — это и часть информационной атаки на Минобороны России в условиях пертурбации (не все сообщения достоверны), и частично симптом того, что министерство обороны в условиях текущей конфигурации — институт, заточенный на главу ведомства (а не на обеспечение стабильности системы). Объясним проще: в идеальном мире могли бы меняться пара-тройка лиц (ближайших помощников) руководителя ведомства, которые как его близкий круг уходят с ним. Однако если мы в действительности увидим массовые отставки, то это будет свидетельством того, что подобные лица работали не ради министерства, а ради…
🇷🇺🪖 No witch hunts, but audits are underway: on what's happening inside the Russian Ministry of Defense
Today, Andrey Belousov listened to reports from the deputy defense ministers on the affairs in their subordinate departments and military command bodies. This process will continue tomorrow as well.
🔻According to our information, the hearing of some deputy defense ministers (we'll keep the intrigue for now) was postponed. Perhaps it's related to the possibility of them writing resignation reports. Maybe someone fell ill. Or they could have been assigned to other tasks.
Be that as it may, most likely on Monday we will see the Ministry of Defense continuing to work in the same mode. Because so far, both Sergey Shoigu and Andrey Belousov are sorting out the economies under their purview and trying to organize the work.
❗️At the same time, we can confirm that the audit of the activities of the military command bodies across the entire Ministry of Defense is ongoing. According to our information, specifically now the audit is checking the accounting documentation and documents related to the activities of the Main Cathedral of the Armed Forces and the Patriot Park.
Whether this will lead to any consequences or not - we'll find out very soon. As Andrey Belousov said, there are no witch hunts, but they started counting the money in the Ministry of Defense. Especially the funds that have been developed and spent on the most "high-profile" projects.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
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Рыбарь
🇷🇺🪖 Садовенко, Шевцова, Панков, Конашенков, Цаликов — сколько уже фамилий известных военных чиновников гуляет по TG-каналам? Всем прочат отставку. Все вроде как в преддверии завтрашней Коллегии Минобороны России готовятся уйти и менять место службы. То ли отправляясь следом за Сергеем Шойгу, то ли просто уходя на заслуженный отдых (наверное, потому, что Шойгу их не отпускал). Пошедшие валом сообщения о поданных рапортах об отставках — это и часть информационной атаки на Минобороны России в условиях пертурбации (не все сообщения достоверны), и частично симптом того, что министерство обороны в условиях текущей конфигурации — институт, заточенный на главу ведомства (а не на обеспечение стабильности системы). Объясним проще: в идеальном мире могли бы меняться пара-тройка лиц (ближайших помощников) руководителя ведомства, которые как его близкий круг уходят с ним. Однако если мы в действительности увидим массовые отставки, то это будет свидетельством того, что подобные лица работали не ради министерства, а ради…
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🇷🇺🪖 Possible reshuffles in the Ministry of Defense after the appointment of Andrey Belousov remain a subject of speculation in the media. However, we reiterate - no major dismissals are expected at this stage.
For now, the changes will be limited to just a few individuals from Belousov's team transitioning to the structure of the Russian Ministry of Defense. In particular, Eldar Muslimov, who headed the secretariat of the current Minister of Defense during his work in the government, is likely to follow Belousov.
As we previously wrote, while the process of handing over affairs and getting up to speed is underway, no one will be swinging their saber and chopping positions for media effect. Truly significant personnel decisions are likely to be seen only after some time.
#RussianArmedForces #Russia
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Рыбарь
🇷🇺🪖 Коллегия Министерства обороны Российской Федерации прошла. Она длилась всего лишь полчаса. На ней было сказано главное: никаких перестановок пока на данном этапе не будет. Сейчас новоиспеченный министр обороны Андрей Белоусов улетает в Китай в командировку вместе с Владимиром Путиным. А после возвращения он будет заслушивать всех руководителей центральных органов военного управления и заместителей министра обороны. Как мы и подтверждали ранее, пока будет происходить процесс передачи дел и должности отдельных людей, а также ввод в курс дела Андрея Белоусова. Поэтому ожидать, что в ближайшую неделю произойдут резкие перемены, не стоит. Скорее всего, если люди и будут меняться, мы об их назначениях или снятии с должности узнаем либо из-за публичных скандалов (как, например, арест Юрия Кузнецова), либо же по факту новых назначений. Заседание коллегии вообще происходит по правилам ежемесячно. Возможно, к следующей коллегии мы увидим какие-то новые кадровые решения. #ВСРФ #Россия @rybar Поддержать…
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🇨🇳🇷🇺🇺🇸 On the Sale of US Bonds by Chinese Banks
There are currently many reports in the English-language segment of the Internet about the alleged sharp "dumping" of US Treasury bonds by China. Some Russian channels (as in similar situations before) immediately saw this as China slapping the Americans.
And although the sale of US securities is indeed growing, there is an important nuance here that completely changes the impression of what is happening.
📌 The volume of "Treasuries" on the balance sheets of Chinese banks reached its peak in 2013 and has been steadily declining since then. Over the past decade, this volume has decreased by more than 40% and in April 2024 amounted to $797.7 billion. Now the trend to get rid of "Treasuries" in China is intensifying.
In the first quarter of 2024, Chinese banks got rid of Treasury and agency bonds for a total of $53.3 billion, according to calculations based on the latest data from the US Department of the Treasury. Belgium, which is often seen as a custodian of Chinese assets, got rid of Treasury bonds for $22 billion during the specified period.
The most likely reason for this is the outflow of capital from the Chinese economy. In the third quarter of 2023, it amounted to $75 billion, and almost exactly repeats the volumes of funds received from the sale of Treasuries in the first quarter of 2024, which indicates a balanced approach to controlling the yuan exchange rate. These funds are used to stabilize it.
🔻There is no talk of a large-scale trade war on the part of China. But Joe Biden announced a large-scale increase in tariffs on a number of Chinese import goods. Donald Trump said that if elected, he could impose a tax on Chinese goods of more than 60%.
❗️These factors, combined with concerns about global demand for Chinese goods, are the basis for the movement of capital out of the Chinese economy, which requires compensation.
A side effect of the sale of "Treasuries" is the rise in interest rates on them. This overloads the already inflated US public debt and causes an uproar among English-speaking experts.
As China sells dollar assets, the share of gold in the country's official reserves is growing. The share of the precious metal in reserves rose to 4.9% in April, which is the highest figure according to central bank data since 2015.
China and countries with close economic ties to it have increased their gold reserves in foreign exchange reserves since 2015, while countries in the US bloc have largely kept them stable. The purchase of gold by some central banks may be due to concerns about sanctions risks.
🔻The current sale of "Treasuries" by China should not be perceived as some kind of escalation. China is pursuing a balanced economic policy based primarily on national interests. But a positive factor for Russia is the presence of a neighbor with a stable economy, with sufficient resources to carry out such economic measures.
#China #USA
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Китай сбросил максимальный объем долговых обязательств США
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🇷🇺🇺🇦✈️ Today, the prosecutor's office of the so-called Ukraine announced the nationalization of two passenger An-148 aircraft, loudly claiming that the aircraft allegedly belonged to the Russian state corporation "Rostec" and were leased to a local carrier before the start of the SMO.
Ukrainian resources picked up the news, talking about the "damage to the largest weapons manufacturer of the aggressor". But there's a small nuance: both planes were sold to a company in Cyprus back in August 2021 due to maintenance difficulties. By the way, this was quite openly reported by the Russian media.
📌 It turns out to be a funny situation: for two whole years, the prosecutor's office of the Kyiv regime selflessly fought bureaucracy in order to eventually report the confiscation of planes. The same ones that not only already belonged to the so-called Ukraine, but were also previously bought with money from Russia.
In general, a good illustration of what (and how) the prosecutor's office and other similar bodies are engaged in on the so-called Ukraine.
#aviation #Russia #Ukraine
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🇦🇲🇪🇺 On the Preparation of Logistics Infrastructure for the Zangezur Corridor
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) provided Armenia with a €236 million loan for the construction of the "North-South" corridor road section from Kajaran to Sisian. This was announced at the EBRD business forum in Yerevan.
The road section passes through the Syunik region of Armenia, where the Turkish and Azerbaijani authorities plan to open the "Zangezur Corridor", which will connect Azerbaijan with its Nakhchivan exclave, as well as with Turkey.
▪️From a political standpoint, the "Zangezur Corridor" will recreate Turkic unity, and the "corridor logic" will limit Armenia's sovereignty over its southern territories and logistics. Turkey is already voicing ideas about granting special status to infrastructure in the Syunik region.
▪️From an economic standpoint, the "Zangezur Corridor" is also beneficial for the West, which is now trying to implement the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route ("Middle Corridor").
▪️Armenia is not yet involved in the project, but the potential opening of the "Zangezur Corridor" through the Syunik region will increase the capacity of the TITR and shorten its route.
▪️At the EBRD forum in Yerevan, the EU Commissioner outlined the benefits of opening communication from the EU to Central Asia through Armenia, essentially speaking about the Azerbaijani-Turkish "Zangezur Corridor" project.
▪️Moreover, the EBRD and USAID signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) at the forum on the development of the TITR, which implies investments not only in transport infrastructure in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Georgia, but also in promoting anti-corruption reforms and expanding engagement with civil society in the region. After all, the creation of West-controlled infrastructure requires deeper involvement in local institutions.
🔻It is obvious that there is no place for a sovereign Armenia in such large-scale projects, as the republic is already being viewed solely as an object of external manipulation. The Armenian authorities no longer have the resources and will to defend their interests against the Azerbaijani side, which will put forward new demands for territorial concessions and will be the beneficiary of global projects in the region at the expense of absorbing neighboring territories.
#Azerbaijan #Armenia #globalism
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🇦🇿🇦🇲🇹🇷 Интенсификация процессов вокруг Армении и всё возрастающее давление — это прямое свидетельство того, как быстро хотят достичь желаемого на Западе. Да и ускорение создания инфраструктуры в Нахичеванской автономной республике со стороны азербайджанцев и турок тоже этот факт подтверждает. В ходе недавней поездки турецкого президента Эрдогана в Нахичевань были подписаны несколько соглашений, а также продемонстрирована дорожная карта развития региона в рамках реализации проекта Транскаспийского мультимодального коридора. В течение последующих пяти лет совместными усилиями Турции и Азербайджана планируется проложить ж/д полотно длиной 224 км, построить 5 станций, 10 мостов, 465 водопропускных труб и 144 подземных перехода на маршруте Карс — Нахичевань. Помимо очевидных плюсов для Азербайджана, это дает толчок и турецким регионам за счет появления железной дороги, а также ещё больше привязывает Нахичевань к экономике Турции. 📌 Для чего всё это делается — вопрос риторический. Прокладка электрофицированной ж/д линии необходима для эффективного функционирования коридора из Центральной Азии. Но транзит через Сюникскую область Армении и присутствие ВС РФ создают препятствия, с которыми что на Западе, что в Турции с Азербайджаном хотят разделаться как можно быстрее. Карта в высоком разрешении English version #Азербайджан #Армения #Россия #ЦентральнаяАзия @rybar Поддержать нас
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08:03
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Rybar Live: Situation in Asia and the Pacific, May 16
Mikhail Zvinchuk, head of the Russian think tank Rybar: «The US benefits from the Europeans imposing their tariffs. They can significantly hit China, which has about 40% of all electric car exports to Europe»
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04:32
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Rybar Live: Situation in the Middle East, May 16
Mikhail Zvinchuk, head of the Russian think tank Rybar: «If Jewish communities vote for Trump and provide him with networking, connections and so on, the situation in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict zone will change. Israel will once again be showered with golden rain»
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🇰🇵🇰🇷🇺🇸 The situation on the Korean Peninsula remains tense
In late May, the first meeting of US and South Korean special operations forces commanders will take place. Their tasks include infiltrating North Korea in the event of war, for example, to assassinate Kim Jong-un.
According to local media reports, American special forces will advise their South Korean counterparts on improving their skills and using equipment for special operations. The parties will also discuss the possibility of joint training.
▪️Apparently, the parties are working out scenarios for infiltrating North Korea to eliminate its military and political leadership in the event of a serious escalation on the peninsula. For South Korea, this is necessary to prevent a nuclear strike from North Korea - since the decision to use nuclear weapons is made by the country's leader.
▪️However, the possibility of implementing such a plan is not mentioned too often in Seoul - the last time it was openly discussed was by the defense minister under the previous president. And in December 2023, the current head of the defense department spoke about a similar operation.
Of course, neither the exercises nor the meeting of special operations commanders is a major step towards escalation. However, if such training is carried out, North Korea's reaction will not keep itself waiting. This, in turn, will increase the degree of tension on the Korean Peninsula, albeit not to critical levels.
#NorthKorea #SouthKorea #USA
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Key S. Korean, USFK special operations officials to hold rare meeting amid N.K. threats
SEOUL, May 14 (Yonhap) -- The military is planning to hold a rare meeting between major So...
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