IT Tech Crypto
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Bitcoin, on-chain analysis, alerts, sentiment, and technical analysis. 🧠 Free of charge. ✅ 🚨 Opinions are my own and do not constitute financial advice.
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Read on X: https://x.com/IT_Tech_PL/status/2059243273945002375
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My newsletter covers on-chain $BTC data most traders never see.
Free 7-day premium trial - no commitment.
Link below 👇
https://ittechpl.substack.com/47f30e20
2 519
Everyone's asking if the Bitcoin bottom is in...
Nobody's checking the data that actually answered this question before.
In this week's On-chain Insights newsletter, I mapped 4 halving cycles to find out 👇
Bitcoin peaked at $124,000 in October 2025.
We're now 7 months into the decline. -38% from the top.
Everyone has an opinion on where this ends. Very few are actually running the numbers.
I did. And the results are worth paying attention to.
I did. And the results are worth paying attention to.
I looked at every completed Bitcoin halving cycle - 2012, 2016, 2020 - and applied three independent methods to estimate where Cycle 4 bottoms, and when.
All three methods pointed to the same window. Not close. The same month.
But here's where it gets more interesting.
Timing a bottom is one thing. Knowing whether the market is actually near one is another.
So I checked four on-chain indicators against what they looked like at the 2018 and 2022 bottoms.
MVRV. NUPL. LTH SOPR. Market SOPR.
Every single one tells the same story - and it's not what most people want to hear right now.
This week's On-chain Insights also covers:
- BTC ETF flows: second consecutive week of outflows, April's entire inflow streak erased in 14 days
- Coinbase Premium: 0 of 168 hours positive this week - U.S. spot demand is simply not there
- The exact cost basis levels that are capping every BTC recovery attempt right now
- Sector breadth: 17 of 24 green - but the data has a catch that the headline number hides
The full analysis - including the bottom window, the price scenarios, and what on-chain says has to happen before this bear ends - is in Issue #179.
🔗 https://ittechpl.substack.com/p/bitcoin-and-crypto-market-report-179
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$BTC is trapped between two heavy liquidation clusters.
🔴 Shorts stacked above
🟢 Longs dense just below - built on Trump peace/Hormuz
Both sides are loaded. Price goes where liquidity is (high leverage liquidations map).
77K is the trigger. Break up = short squeeze. Rejection = long cascade. ⚠️
Read on X: https://x.com/IT_Tech_PL/status/2058447594662264900
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2 519
$BTC OI fully rebuilt after the dump. That's the problem.
Funding Rate: briefly flipped negative around the 09:00 drop - now recovering back to positive
OI: flushed from ~25.2B to ~24.6B on the wick, already back at 25.2B
Spot is not buying. CVD confirms net selling pressure all session.
OI rebuild with no spot support = fresh longs entering, not organic demand.
⚠️ Funding going positive again while CVD stays negative - classic dip-buyer trap setup. More downside not off the table.
Read on X: https://x.com/IT_Tech_PL/status/2058133640622862535
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2 519
Coinbase Premium Gap: -93.7. US buyers aren't here.
- Premium Gap: -93.7 (approaching Jan 26 crash extreme of -100)
- Feb 9 capitulation low: -175 (deepest this cycle)
- Green cluster Apr 20 -> May 3 fully faded
- Sustained red since late April
$BTC holding 76K on offshore and futures flow. Not US spot.
⚠️ If that bid pulls, there's no Coinbase floor underneath.
Read on X: https://x.com/IT_Tech_PL/status/2057908873152037126
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Read on X: https://x.com/IT_Tech_PL/status/2057794625780543954
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2 519
$BTC: every breakout above 77.6K rejected within hours. Five days running.
- Range: 76,014 low (May 19) -> 78,453 high (May 18)
- SuperTrend: 7 trend flips in 5 days - B/S tags toggling every 12-24h
- Current: SuperTrend flipped Buy near 76K on May 22, price at 77K
- Volume profile: heaviest node clusters 76.4K -> 77.6K - price sitting mid-range
Bears capped every push above 77.6K. Bulls keep defending 76K. No side is winning.
⚠️ Neutral. 76K is the floor the market keeps defending. 78K is the lid. Until one breaks with volume, this is noise.
Read on X: https://x.com/IT_Tech_PL/status/2057747359044632675
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2 519
Perp CVD is -300M. $BTC just tapped 78K. Those two facts don't belong together.
📊 CVD:
- Spot CVD: -85.24M - sustained net selling (left chart)
- Perp CVD: -299.95M - 3.5x deeper than spot (right chart)
Funding Rate: +0.0089% - longs paying shorts, mild crowding
Order Book Depth:
- Spot: Delta -498.77 - ask-side heavy
- Perp: Delta -1.6K - strong ask imbalance
Price spiked 76.1K -> 78.2K, then rejected hard. Both CVDs were falling through the entire move - leveraged longs chased, not spot buyers.
⚠️ No spot accumulation behind this rally. Until spot CVD flips, bounces stay unconfirmed.
Read on X: https://x.com/IT_Tech_PL/status/2057471865573237203
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Repost from IT Tech Crypto
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⚠️ Educational only. Not financial advice. Crypto trading involves risk.
#trading #partnership
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⚠️ 5 sell rejections above 77K. The one time bulls flipped - sellers reclaimed it in a single candle. $BTC
Double bottom at 76,014 held. Every rally since 78,453 on 05-18 ended the same way.
- SuperTrend (S = bearish, B = bullish) flipped red at 78,453 - five sell labels, zero sustained breaks
- B flip confirmed at 76,014 on 05-20 - strongest buyer defense in the range
- Pushed to 77.7K, tagged S again immediately - supply at 77.9K-78.2K is sticky
- Below 76.8K the volume profile goes thin fast - not support, open air
Bulls aren’t wrong to try here. But three rejections at 77.7K means that level needs a real close, not a wick. If 76,014 breaks, there’s nothing meaningful until 75.9K.
🧭 Support: 76.8K -> 76,014 / Resistance: 77.7K -> 78.2K
Read on X: https://x.com/IT_Tech_PL/status/2057152033975861269
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