AU Thoughts

This type of SPX GEX profile has appeared many times during past FOMC meetings. In most cases, we see a low volume rally during premarket and the period leading up to the FOMC. Price keeps grinding higher against heavy put positioning, only to sell off sharply as soon as the FOMC starts. I expect BTC to rally to 81,700 to 82,000 before selling off once the FOMC begins. For SPX, it depends on the GEX profile at the open. The data here is from OptionDepth

All shorts are fully closed. Crude oil broke below support, and a rate hike was never expected tomorrow anyway. My SOXL short from 95 last Thursday ended flat, although I did take one swing trade in between. The BTC and altcoin shorts made some profit. I expected SOXX to rally only after Wednesday, but it has already rallied much more than expected ahead of schedule. So I don't want to get back in to trade the rebound after Wednesday. I'll look for another opportunity to short SOXL later. MSTR is strangely weak for some reason, but Binance spot inflows have remained steady, while perp inflows have also continued. A lot of traders have been adding to their shorts here, just like last week, so a short squeeze tomorrow is very possible. Waiting for the next trading opportunity. Could have done a better job taking profits this time

Honestly, the market is performing this poorly even with positive news about US-Iran peace talks today. With the FOMC on top of that tomorrow, a sharp selloff is very possible

Distribution👀

Update: Spot buying was absorbed yesterday, and some resting spot bids were filled without triggering a price rebound. Overall, resting spot bids were pulled down by around 1,000. Also, while NQ rebounded yesterday, BTC and MSTR remained very weak. I suspect we could see another leg down around the FOMC. Gold is also falling, which is a bad sign

It looks like Anthropic’s accounting “fraud” has been exposed, and the market is starting to sell off

https://x.com/frankdegods/status/2114765682768310654 https://x.com/GaryMarcus/status/2114760773914255681

That makes sense. I was too focused on watching the market and only glanced at the headlines without reading the details. This is a major bullish catalyst. No wonder the market rallied so much. I overlooked it. I'll wait and see how the market closes. If it closes strong, I'll cover my shorts. If not, I'll cover them gradually on Tuesday and Wednesday. I'll most likely cover my SOXL short at the close first, while keeping my BTC and altcoin shorts open for now and waiting a bit longer. https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/2114744804147912852

NQ and SPX should see a pullback intraday. I don't think SPX can break above 7700. Retail traders bought heavily into SOXL last week, and retail positioning generally tends to move in the opposite direction to hedge funds and neutral market makers. This could lead to further selling from hedge funds. I'll wait until the US market closes and see how things look.

BTC spot inflows on Binance and Coinbase are strong, oil prices are falling, and NQ is rebounding. If it weren't for the bearish Anthropic news, I would have closed my shorts during premarket. My short profits have now given back some gains again, 🥀 and oil prices have just risen back up. I'll gradually close my shorts on Tuesday and Wednesday. I'll be getting ready to go long on Wednesday.

High-flying consumer stocks like KO and Visa definitely won't do well tomorrow either. Semis got crushed today on the Anthropic news, and tomorrow consumer and financial stocks could also sell off sharply, sending the indexes even lower. I'll keep holding my shorts. I'm just a bit worried that Trump might TACO before the Israeli election, but I think it's fine. He already TACOed over the weekend, and oil prices have fallen too. Oil might not necessarily fall much further from here

I just caught a short-term short on Anthropic on Binance 😂 The news is way too delayed. Even the Chinese news outlets I follow had already reported it, and I was already in the short, but these TG channels still hadn't posted anything. I guess I'll still have to use FJ and Bloomberg's websites😂

good✌️

Anthropic H1 net loss $80.7 billion|FJ

I’ll wait for news on Anthropic S1 before making a decision. I wasn’t at my computer just now and missed the best opportunity to close my short positions. I’ll wait for the news

This is why long-term Treasury yields and oil prices are falling, yet gold, stocks, and crypto are still selling off

Capital simply dislikes uncertainty. Once uncertainty is resolved, capital will flow in.

Send it to zero, I buy the dip. Investors need to break even, so they create a new narrative or bullish catalyst. It goes up 100x, gets listed on Binance, and I sell✌️ https://x.com/immutablejacob/status/2114389342470668799

Exactly. Black Thursday, Black Friday, Black Monday. 👀 We're getting close. After Black Monday, there probably won't be a Black Tuesday. Black Monday itself might only happen in premarket. Shorts will cover on Wednesday. My current view is that oil prices will fall after the Israeli election and Trump won't start a war before the midterms. Trump TACOed over the weekend, but even with oil prices falling, the stock market still fell. I'm sticking to the original plan for now, but I'm worried MSTR might bounce back after the US market opens. NQ still hasn't fallen enough. I need to think through the details carefully.