AU Trading Journal 🩵😈

BTC is still not low enough. I expect significant ETF outflows today

Don't get distracted by Warsh sounding hawkish while the market rallies into the close and overnight. Don't focus on the premarket strength. Once Thursday's options expiration is out of the way, the uncertainty introduced by Warsh will start to show up in the market

Just like I said before, the Fed needs to maintain its independence. Don't rush. Let today's options expiration pass and let the gamma wall come off. We could even see the market enter negative gamma after the open. Add index rebalancing and next week's CTA selling on top of that, and the uncertainty Warsh brings to the market will start to show up. I'm waiting for semiconductor stocks to flush out some leverage and then stabilize again. We can reassess on Monday. With a long weekend ahead, there's also the risk of Trump creating another headline

By the way, the onchain options gamma wall for HYPE sits around 80. That means if the FOMC does not deliver any bullish surprise and U.S. equities remain range bound, then 80 is probably a good level to take profit. Also, I would not view the HYPE chart as a double top. It's better viewed as a cup and handle pattern

Based on the OTS valuation framework from that article, taking profits around $85 on HYPE might be a reasonable move. It suggests HYPE’s fair value is probably somewhere in the $65 to $90 range at the moment https://x.com/i/status/2066506931649355959

TRUMP: STOCK MARKET WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ...

Originally, I thought Trump would have Kevin Warsh send a dovish signal to the market. But after reading that article, I changed my view. The most important thing is preserving the Fed's independence. Because of that, I didn't buy the dip at the opening lows as I had originally planned. Instead, I decided to wait for the FOMC before making a move. My base case was that the FOMC would not deliver any bullish surprise, and that Thursday and next Monday would offer better opportunities to continue buying the dip

I sold my semicap stocks way too early🥀 $amat klac

All the targets have been reached. For every ticker, it was only a matter of time

$xpl from 0.75→0.11 tp

hedge: optics stocks down, copper interconnect stocks up

Kevin Warsh seems determined to prove the Fed's independence to the market. Personally, I'd rather wait until the FOMC is out before buying. If the market doesn't see a sharp selloff at the open, I won't be buying. The FOMC is unlikely to be dovish, so it may be better to wait until tomorrow's quad witching options expiration is behind us before entering. If the Fed does turn dovish, there will still be enough time to chase U.S. equities afterward https://x.com/i/status/2066335615776374921

Looks like BTC will continue to move lower after the market opens. STRC has already reached 91. It looks like the impact still hasn't been fully reflected in the BTC chart

My prediction was right. The market went into risk off mode and sold off after Tuesday's open, but I didn't sell at the open. Now I'm planning to go all in before the FOMC. June 18 is when I'm deploying full size

Additionally, $HYPE is now closely tracking US stock market moves. Its revenue and attention are heavily tied to US equities and pre-IPO deals. Meaning: as long as those semiconductor/memory stocks keep running without pulling back, $HYPE can keep climbing too

$MU ath

🟢 #HYPE Short Liquidation 🔴 #ETH Long Liquidation fc hype/eth 1d

HYPE's fair value should be higher than ETH's market cap ETF Flows: 15 Jun 2026 🔴 Bitcoin ETFs: -$64.8M net outflows 🟢 Ethereum ETFs: $22.5M net inflows 🟢 Solana ETFs: $2.7M net inflows 🟢 Hyperliquid ETFs: $17.2M net inflows

i bought some sats, the thesis comes down to SATS' true NAV and potential short covering https://x.com/i/status/2066741137159946533