AU Trading Journal 🩵😈

OpenAl, Anthropic, Google, and xAl just got sued for allegedly colluding to slow down Al development together. BESSENT: US-CHINA TO MEET IN TWO MONTHS ON AI IN SHENZHEN. Bessent: "It is humans who are responsible, not the AI. The Hugging Face incident — that is the responsibility of the OpenAI management, not a bunch of agents... These labs need to take responsibility for themselves." Classic Wall Street fear based shakeout. They drop the bad news, then release the good news lol. Luckily, my swing trading frequency was still a bit high before the first half of this year. Later, I gradually realized that stocks and altcoins are pretty similar. You have to trade without leverage, hold swings for at least a month, and make no more than one or two swing trades per month. That is how you make big money

During FOMC, MU had already dropped back to the starting point of my current swing trade, but it has also rallied nicely since then. I explained before FOMC why I thought FOMC would be the low

INTC is up around 30%. BE pumped, now it’s INTC’s turn lol

*US PROPOSED EXTENDING CHINA TRADE TRUCE BY SIX MONTHS: NYT *CHINA HAS PUSHED FOR A LONGER TRADE TRUCE EXTENSION: NYT risk on bull market always long

Nothing much to say this week, just stay long. It is all about the China US meeting and the Chinese President’s visit to the US. The expectation is very bullish, including a ceasefire and tariff reductions. You could already see money front running the event from the rally into Friday’s close. I said before that the market could rally into the close, and this is exactly why. There are no bearish catalysts this week, only bullish ones. Then I expect a pullback as the China US meeting gets close to ending. Once the meeting is over, Trump will probably go back to fighting Iran lol I have nothing to do anyway. I already bought semiconductors and the other stocks I mentioned before, and I also called the low during FOMC. For crypto, I will sell or reduce exposure as the China US meeting gets close to ending, probably before the US market opens on Wednesday. You can clearly see market makers are using this period to push most alts into a blow off move. After a blow off move, there will inevitably be a pullback, or some alts may simply have already topped

SPX dumped while semis and crypto rallied, pretty much as predicted. The key to making these predictions is going through the entire day’s options data and then reviewing the CME and L2 data. Long posts with several data screenshots are usually more accurate. Other content may not be. If there are no data screenshots, it’s usually just a personal read with no data behind it. Once you can see the orders, you can more or less figure out what institutions are trying to do. SPX probably still has another leg down. I shorted NQ right at the top again. Taking profit on this trade and getting off the screen. I’ll just hold a few altcoins and enjoy the weekend. Back to trading SPX 0DTE and US stocks next week.

Today’s overnight price action is similar to yesterday’s premarket price action. In both cases, price was pushed higher while facing a large amount of short hedge iceberg orders and put protection, then rallied into key options levels before selling off. However, today the market makers hedged earlier during the overnight session, which caused the premarket session to already be selling off. This is most likely because today is Triple Witching and the market is front running it. Historically, Triple Witching sessions have also tended to close lower more often. Overall, the market will most likely sell off at the open today. SPX could drop to 7590, and then it may rally into the close. However, if you are holding semiconductors, it does not really matter. Those few altcoins should also continue rising over the weekend.

If SPX rallies too much premarket, market makers’ opening inventory will usually move back toward neutral after the open. Usually this means reverting to the key options level, SPX 7510, corresponding to ES 7680 on the chart, then bouncing. Today was exactly such a case, so do not panic when the market sells off at the open. What I hate most is when people make assumptions and present them as opinions without any basis. Overnight inventory adjustments can also cause different stocks to diverge after the open, followed by a bounce and then a selloff because a large amount of calls were sold. Still, I have strong confidence in US equities. Yesterday was the low. Based on experience, stocks in the main narrative usually only need one swing trade per month. There is no need to trade them too much. Then just trade ES or SPX 0DTE every day. The essence of SPX 0DTE is using TPO, heatmaps, VWAP with standard deviation bands, dark pools, options gamma and charm, and some order flow knowledge to identify key levels. Then enter by watching iceberg orders, absorption, large trades, options delta, and net drift, and combine all of that with PA to read the chart. That is the holy grail, with extremely high accuracy. For the ICT approach, there is no need to study ICT. Understanding Wyckoff and SMC is enough. It also applies to crypto. Yesterday’s bottom was also the bottom for crypto. You can see that since yesterday’s bottom, ZEC, NEAR, PONS, UNI and others have all been moving higher. I cannot be bothered to talk about it anymore. These days, I just take a few trades every day and then log off to do other things. I do not bother looking at the rest. Just hold semiconductors, optics, and a few power and new cloud names. For US equities, I have found that catching the main narrative and swing trading it is the most profitable approach. Positioning in small caps is not useful. Then just trade SPX 0DTE every day and log off. Crypto is more opportunistic. I will trade it when I happen to see a good opportunity. Same with memes. I used to trade them, but I do not really want to look at them anymore. If I happen to see an opportunity, I will trade it.

We are in a short squeeze right now. Just saw what was likely around 6,000 contracts of short iceberg hedging flow from market makers in ES during premarket. Based on the options data, SPX could potentially reach 7,675 today, corresponding to ES 7,745. Right after I posted yesterday, I saw a huge amount of 0DTE SPX put options, which was the main reason the market sold off after Warsh’s remarks. But this did not stop the broader trend. The stock market still moved higher today as predicted. I can only say that yesterday’s low is in.

Today’s FOMC meeting should either leave rates unchanged or hike but remain dovish, and equities should continue higher after FOMC. NQ and ES have had a lot of bullish iceberg orders since premarket. Just before the open, I saw a 1,000 lot bullish iceberg on ES and a 200+ lot bullish iceberg on NQ. I went long NQ premarket following that large bullish iceberg, and it’s already sitting on a decent unrealized profit lol. The SPX 0DTE options structure also looks good, so the overall setup points to a bullish FOMC reaction today. VIX is also not high, so even if there is a rate hike, the impact should be limited. Charm is especially important for the options market today. I checked SPX 0DTE Charm and Delta, and both are showing buying pressure. I have previously used the method of observing very large iceberg orders to anticipate some news events. Let’s see if this read is accurate this time. Based on my read, I expect no rate hike, or a rate hike with a dovish tone, followed by equities rallying. Then, after a few days, the market may not accept the no hike outcome and view the Fed as having lost credibility, causing long duration Treasury yields to rise and equities to sell off. Why would the market view a rate hike as dovish? Because the market is currently close to pricing in three rate hikes. As long as the Fed does not hike consecutively, the market will view it as dovish. In other words, as long as Warsh hikes but takes the measures that JPMorgan outlined as having no impact on the market, the market will view it as dovish. Also, a rate hike won’t solve high oil prices, so it wouldn’t be effective anyway. Based on the same reasoning, gold still looks underbought today. QQQ has already front run the move significantly. So besides continuing to hold those semiconductor and optical stocks, I also bought gold. In any case, I’m not selling the MU, INTC, BE, LITE and other stocks I bought earlier. Only MU has fallen back to my cost basis for this swing trade, while the others are still above it, so that’s actually fine. I also bought gold.

ChatGPT has already solved a Millennium Prize mathematics problem. What are rate hikes or wars in the face of a revolution in humanity? First of all, a rate hike is highly unlikely. Even if we do get one, it is already priced in. AGI is the unstoppable trend of the era. It cannot be reversed. At most, this is just a small pullback. Let’s move toward AGI. Continue to go all in on semiconductors, optics, and power.

The news of Biden’s son launching a meme coin has drained liquidity from the entire market and caused the whole market to sell off. Meanwhile, semiconductors will most likely continue to rise tomorrow, and crypto capital has started flowing back into semiconductors, which is why BTC is falling. GPT 6 Astra makes it hard for capital not to flow back into tech and semiconductors. Waiting until Biden’s son finishes launching the meme coin could be a relatively good opportunity to buy the dip. MEME and INDEX both have a chance to be listed on Robinhood, so buying the dip on these two when that happens may be a good move. The timing for the listings should be better after Solana and BSC have played all their cards, semiconductors start consolidating at higher levels again, and crypto capital flows back in. Altcoins will also fall with BTC, but HYPE is following the US stock market instead. Holding HYPE while semiconductors are rising should be the better choice. HYPE will most likely reach 90 in September

The second half was a top tier prediction. Almost no one on X probably predicted that $BE would be added to the S&P 500. It just happened to cross my mind that day. Next up is the opportunity around $INTC’s lockup expiration on the 10th. $MU should of course return to 1200 in September

$MU, $INTC, and $BE should hit new highs soon. MU should probably move to 1200 first, consolidate for a while, then continue higher. My current strengths are basically SPX 0DTE > swing trading hot US stocks > crypto altcoins > memecoins. In July and August, I also studied trading in detail with institutional traders, from TPO charts to DOM, basically from Market Profile to order flow. The book on options volatility and pricing was also read five times. That period was mainly spent studying SPX 0DTE and trading US stocks. Time is limited, so there simply isn’t enough time to follow everything in crypto. The personal growth path went from crypto memecoins to altcoins and then US stocks. With limited time now, you can probably pay more attention to my views on US stocks, followed by altcoins

tao 250→270→300→ath Also, perhaps TAO whales could pump its paired meme coin to attract more attention, which could in turn push TAO even higher

Bought some $TAO. Compared with ZEC and NEAR, TAO still looks undervalued. Also bought a meme paired with it

As everyone knows, getting listed on Binance is usually a top signal. But Hakimi is different. It has been washed out for long enough to be comparable to Cashcat, just like Marscoin compared to AI. Also, when Binance lists perps for two meme coins at the same time, it is usually the lower market cap one, or the unexpected one, that pumps. In other words, Binance could dump Pons and pump Hakimi.

So what I mean here is that semiconductors will start the third stage of the move higher starting from the day OpenAI releases GPT 6 Astra. Then maybe MU will return to its previous high before the FOMC, or after the FOMC if no rate hike is announced. Historical data shows that the SPX tends to see a sharp pullback on the first trading day after U.S. Labor Day. Not sure if this year will be different, but it is not a big problem. These few stocks should not drop much. Also, some of the memecoins paired with MU as the liquidity pool, such as MOO and SHROOM, should also make new highs.

By the way, as mentioned before the open, $BE was highly likely to be added to the S&P 500. $BE is being added to the S&P 500. Called this one.

Holding these three stocks for now should be fine. They have also been very strong while QQQ was falling. Looking at the charts I drew, NQ and QQQ should also rebound from here. This is what my daily ES and NQ, SPX 0DTE intraday trading looks like. The profits are not that large, but it is still relatively consistent