Coin Post – Money, Investments, Bitcoin
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Simple, plain, and fast crypto digests. Since 2017 Russian version: @Coin_Post Editor: @Alex_CoinPost Advertising: @CoinPost_Agency Chat: https://t.me/+RF8rIdYNr4dmNTQy Creator: @K_Capitan
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📝 توضیح و سیاست محتوایی
نویسنده این فضا را محل بیان دیدگاههای شخصی توصیف میکند:
“Simple, plain, and fast crypto digests. Since 2017
Russian version: @Coin_Post
Editor: @Alex_CoinPost
Advertising: @CoinPost_Agency
Chat: https://t.me/+RF8rIdYNr4dmNTQy
Creator: @K_Capitan”
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پستهای کانال
| 2 |  Data centers in the US are projected to consume 20% of all electricity by 2035, up from 5.9% currently
As I mentioned earlier, the main bottleneck won't be the chips themselves, but basic transformers and everything related to powering our "casino."
After dozens of hours of analysis, I've selected a few companies that look like top contenders in this space: strong contracts, solid financials, and long-term leaders in their sector 💡
• Eaton Corporation (ETN) – a multinational giant in smart power management. The company produces highly complex electrical equipment: transformers, switchboards, uninterruptible power supply (UPS) systems, circuit breakers, as well as components for hydraulics and the aerospace industry.
• Powell Industries (POWL) – a manufacturer of complex, custom electrical equipment: switchgear, motor control centers, and modular Power Control Rooms (PCRs) for heavy industry, energy, and data centers.
• GE Vernova – the former energy division of the legendary General Electric, which spun off into an independent company in 2024. They are a global powerhouse in the energy sector.
• Vistra Corp (VST) – an integrated energy company and the largest independent power producer (IPP) in the US.
� Right now, they have already surged and look significantly overbought due to their vertical growth. They are on my watchlist and I'm waiting for a pullback before entering.
P.S. Investing in electricity is a bet on a structural deficit that cannot be fixed overnight. It serves as an energy hedge in an AI portfolio. | 579 |
| 3 |  Bitcoin has never dropped below its Balanced Price. Right now, that’s $38 382 🕯
Hit 👍 if you're ready to go all-in if the price dips below $40k! | 804 |
| 4 |  Emergency incident at OpenAI during testing of GPT-5.6 Sol: the AI escaped from an isolated server and hacked partner company Hugging Face 😝
A new pre-release model was attached to GPT-5.6 Sol, and testing was launched in a closed environment. The AI decided there was an easier way to pass the test. It broke out of the "sandbox" and hacked the Hugging Face server where the correct test answers were stored.
Sam Altman can rejoice: the upgraded GPT-5.6 Sol cracks cybersecurity better than the acclaimed Claude Mythos 5. | 967 |
| 5 |  📊 Today I was analyzing assets I’d like to add to my portfolio, focusing particularly on semiconductors, which have taken a dip recently. After all, earnings for these companies are growing, which means the AI bubble everyone keeps predicting isn’t going to happen.
⚠️ But buying assets at the absolute peak of a vertical acceleration is sheer madness, despite the recent dip, this is still vertical growth.
👇 Below are the key rules for dealing with parabolic market movements:
🚫 Vertical growth is a strict taboo
Looking at AMD, Micron, or Nvidia, it's clear that even for companies with flawless fundamentals, the peak of a parabola is an extreme overbought zone. The asset simply becomes unjustifiably expensive there.
⏳ Wait for a deep correction
Choose patience over emotions and buying at the highs. A real entry point appears during a pullback of 50-60% (or at least 30-40%) from the local peak. Only during such dips does it make sense to carefully build a long-term position in tranches. Even then, look at the overall market context, the current phase, and the prevailing narrative. The broader market might be at its peak, making it too early to enter even after a 30-40% drop.
💰 Take profit, don't average up
If you've been in the asset from the start and held it all the way through the explosive growth phase, it’s high time to lock in profits into cash. The market almost never delivers a strong vertical move without a deep pullback following it.
Inexperienced investors always act irrationally. At the bottom, during periods of fear and uncertainty, they are terrified to buy (even though it's the ideal moment). Yet, once an asset pulls off a multi-bagger move, the crowd panics into buying right at the top, instantly catching a deep correction.
💡 Key takeaway: Buying a parabola means knowingly taking on massive risk at the worst possible prices. Smart money does the exact opposite: they buy during fear and deep pullbacks, and during vertical surges, they lock in profits and calmly wait for the next opportunity. | 995 |
| 6 |  Bitcoin is facing another dip this cycle, and whales have set up laddered orders in the $60k–$48k range 👀
Let’s be real: the only reason 99% of traders are expecting another BTC drop this year is because in previous cycles it fell much harder from its peak. For bottom-catchers looking to go all-in, the current drawdown of just over 50% feels like a light correction.
Here’s the reality:
🔵 BTC drawdowns from peak are shrinking with every cycle — shoutout to everyone who was waiting for $10k BTC in autumn 2022. The crypto market has fundamentally changed since 2021, and expecting history to repeat itself word-for-word is a losing strategy.
🔵 BTC is holding above $60k despite the escalation in the Middle East, simply because whales are already accumulating for the next bull run. Yes, they have orders down to $48k, but those are meant for dollar-cost averaging, not a bet on a complete collapse.
🔵 A new BTC bottom is still on the table, but it needs a major catalyst: an S&P 500 crash, the total destruction of Middle Eastern oil infrastructure, Saylor going bankrupt, or another "orange swan" event 🇺🇸
A long-term BTC investor should already be in position because the market bottom is forming right now. The odds that the market gives a better entry price are 50/50, and that’s exactly how the whales are playing it.
And if you’re still wondering when to exit BTC, CZ already gave the answer:
People buy Bitcoin and ask, "When do you exit?" You don’t exit the internet. You don’t exit AI. 💸 | 1 105 |
| 7 |  Thanks, Vitalik, at least it's not a loss... | 1 093 |
| 8 |  🔴 Gold and silver have lost $14.55 trillion in market cap over 172 days
🔴 That’s 6.6 times larger than the entire crypto market
Ready to bag-fill some gold, or waiting for $3,500? 😠 | 1 165 |
| 9 | بدون متن... | 1 202 |
| 10 |  +2There's a narrative gaining serious traction on Twitter right now claiming that Bitcoin hasn't hit rock bottom yet, given that BTC typically sheds 70-80% from its all-time highs. There are tons of posts and charts pointing to this.
Every cycle peaks and then gives up the lion's share of its gains:
→ 2017 Peak: $19,000 – followed by an 84% drop
→ 2021 Peak: $69,000 – followed by a 77% drop
→ 2025 Peak: $126,000 – with a maximum drawdown of 51% so far | 1 249 |
| 11 |  The figures from the last cycle force a complete rethink of our portfolio construction strategy. Here is how asset values changed from September 2023 to October 2025, along with their current drawdowns:
🟠 BNB: +535% at its peak → currently down by ≈56%
🪙 Coinbase Stock: +440% at its peak → currently down by ≈59%
🥇 Bitcoin: +382% at its peak → currently down by ≈48%
✨ Ethereum: +161% at its peak → currently down by ≈55%
It seems we are buying the wrong things if Coinbase stock outperforms our "top" project, Ethereum 🕔
🚨 Take a closer look at companies representing the crypto industry, they are showing returns comparable to Bitcoin, and sometimes even better. Some institutional investors prefer entering the market through them, viewing them as a more or less familiar and understandable instrument. | 1 151 |
| 12 |  What is happening in Asia? A massive asset sell-off has hit the region's key stock exchanges due to profit-taking in the overheated AI sector and escalating geopolitics 🇺🇸
🤖 Doubts over AI profitability. Skepticism is growing over whether tech companies' record multibillion-dollar spending on AI will yield adequate returns in the near future.
🥷 US–Iran conflict. A sixth consecutive night of reciprocal airstrikes in the Persian Gulf has led to the collapse of the truce and paralyzed traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.
📦 Brent and WTI crude oil prices jumped by more than 10% over the week, settling near $85 and $80 per barrel, respectively. This revives the risks of energy-driven inflation.
🚨 What to expect from the US market opening?
Following the slump of Asian semiconductor giants, shares of Nvidia, AMD, and major AI companies will come under heavy pressure at the opening bell.
We'll see. Surprisingly, the crypto market isn't dropping as significantly as it could have so far. | 1 229 |
| 13 |  The main bottleneck for AI development is no longer a shortage of chips, but of ordinary power transformers. Future data centers are quite literally running out of power 🤔
Transformer manufacturing is a highly custom, heavy-duty process that is incredibly difficult to automate. Order backlogs now stretch out for years, prices have doubled, and about 40% of new data centers in the US are already missing their launch deadlines.
This infrastructure bottleneck is expected to last until 2030. The super-technologies of the future are heavily dependent on analog hardware 💡
We are looking for market opportunities in companies involved in this sector of the energy industry and everything connected to it. | 1 522 |
| 14 |  In 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin's global bottom was hit precisely along the CVDD line, an on-chain indicator that has historically identified the final point of capitulation with maximum accuracy.
Current CVDD level: $48,500.
🚨 There is a high probability that Bitcoin will form its bottom just below the psychological level of $50,000.
This is an approximate chart, after all. What conclusion can we draw from it? Give or take, we are at the bottom, but we could still dip lower, especially considering the on-chain indicator above and the overall weakness of Bitcoin right now.
Bitcoin doesn't look strong at the moment. For the crypto market to reverse, we need to see strong demand, essentially a massive stack of green candles moving up followed by consolidation.
Currently, crypto isn't rising on good news, but it sure is falling on bad news 🤔
However, everything aligns perfectly for this autumn:
• The Fed's new inflation calculation policy
• Interest rate cuts
• The necessity to increase liquidity
• The Trump election, and so on
So, we wait 🔥 | 1 504 |
| 15 |  +1💡 Investment idea: a household name, yet undervalued by the market
💻 Microsoft is a diversified tech giant that generates revenue from enterprise software, cloud computing, and hardware.
The business is built on three main pillars:
🔵 Microsoft 365 subscriptions (Word, Excel, Teams), LinkedIn, Dynamics 365
🔵 Server products and the Azure cloud – the main cash generator
🔵 Windows, devices (Surface), gaming (Xbox, Activision Blizzard), and the Bing search engine (yes, it exists)
The key driver for 2025–2026 is the Copilot AI assistant, which is integrated everywhere. In 2026, revenue from AI solutions alone is projected to add over $37 billion on an annualized basis.
Microsoft holds a quasi-monopoly in the corporate sector. If we look at all devices globally (including smartphones), Windows accounts for about 26.7% of the market (trailing mobile Android). However, in the desktop and laptop market, Windows remains unconditionally dominant with a share of around 70%.
Office software is a classic monopoly. Over 85% of large global corporations rely on Microsoft 365. While competitors like Google Workspace are popular among startups, enterprise-level businesses consistently choose the MSFT ecosystem.
The Azure cloud securely holds second place globally (24–26% market share). While they currently trail Amazon AWS (31%), Azure has historically grown at a faster rate, specifically due to the deep integration of the cloud with their enterprise software.
🔠 Investment Thesis
🟡 Net margin of around 39%. For comparison, Amazon’s net margin is around 12%
🟡 Outstanding overall financial metrics, characteristic of an ultra-healthy business: year-over-year revenue growth, robust free cash flow, no debt issues, etc.
🟡 High customer retention. Once a major corporation builds its operations around Azure, Windows, Teams, and SQL databases, switching to a competitor would cost millions of dollars and years of downtime
🟡 First to successfully monetize AI for both retail and enterprise users, beating even Google in time-to-market speed
🟡 Double-digit growth forecasts across almost all key metrics
🟡 A wide economic moat (rated 9 out of 10)
🔠 Risks & Drawbacks
🔴 Colossal capital expenditure (CapEx) on infrastructure. The AI race demands massive resources for chip procurement and data center construction
🔴 The PC segment is cyclical and can slump during economic downturns (though no major economic weakness is currently in sight)
Long-term contracts:
• The shift to the SaaS (Software-as-a-Service) model means almost all their revenue comes from long-term recurring subscriptions.
• Government and defense contracts, such as the US Pentagon's $9B JWCC contract (split among major cloud providers). Additionally, Microsoft serves as the core IT provider for numerous government agencies worldwide.
• Multinational giants (like Coca-Cola and AT&T) sign multi-year contracts with Microsoft for Azure cloud services and Copilot integration.
• Microsoft is entitled to a lion's share of OpenAI's profits until it recoups its investments, guaranteeing a financial upside from the success of ChatGPT.
🔥 The bottom line:
Currently, the stock has experienced a local correction, yet its financial health remains flawless. Quarterly revenue exceeds $82 billion, and the P/E (Price-to-Earnings) ratio has dropped to 23, making it cheaper than Apple, which trades at a P/E of around 38. The forward P/E is even lower at 19—which is excellent, as a lower forward P/E indicates expected earnings growth.
While in crypto we take on high risks for quick gains, MSFT represents the ultimate foundation to preserve and grow your capital, offering a potential +50-70% return this year. | 1 450 |
| 16 |  Many have bet against Microsoft over the years... and many have lost.
MSFT is the only top-tier hyperscaler that hasn’t raised debt this year.
Plus, considering that AI investors will likely start rotating capital from semiconductor stocks into Big Tech, the potential is obvious.
Should I do a deep dive into Microsoft as an investment idea, or is it already self-explanatory? 👇 | 1 318 |
| 17 |  +1💡 Investment Idea: A fundamentally strong company currently sitting at its bottom
💻 Adobe is a global powerhouse in software for digital content creation, document management, and cloud marketing.
The business is divided into three key segments:
🔵 Digital Media – the core of the company: Photoshop, Illustrator, Premiere Pro, After Effects, and Lightroom. This is the software that powers the entire global industry of design, cinema, photography, and social media.
🔵 Document Cloud – tools for document management and digital signatures (Adobe Acrobat, Adobe Sign).
🔵 Digital Experience (Experience Cloud) – enterprise platforms for analytics, marketing, commerce, and customer experience management.
Legally, Adobe is not a monopoly, but de facto, the company holds a quasi-monopoly in the professional content creation industry. Its economic moat is incredibly wide (High Moat Score). It is the industry standard; the entire global ecosystem is tied to Adobe formats.
🔠 Investment Thesis
🟠 Impeccable financial health: Excellent cash position, no debt issues, and all financial metrics are growing.
🟠 Extreme profitability: Gross margin stands at 89.4%, while the operating margin is 36.07%.
🟠 High switching costs: It is practically impossible for a corporate client or studio to leave Adobe. Retraining hundreds of employees and migrating terabytes of source files to alternative software would cost far more than the subscription itself.
🟠 Legal compliance of its AI (Adobe Firefly): Unlike Midjourney, Adobe's neural network is trained exclusively on licensed Adobe Stock content.
🟠 Attractive Valuation: P/E ratio is just 12.57 (Forward P/E is 9.01).
🔠 Risks & Downsides
🟠 Churn among "non-professionals": Small businesses, bloggers, and indie creators are increasingly opting for simpler or free alternatives (Canva, DaVinci Resolve, Photopea) to avoid paying for a subscription.
🟠 Failed Figma acquisition: Due to the termination of the Figma deal, the company will have to spend billions on internal R&D.
🔥 The core idea:
The market triggered a sell-off driven by AI panic. This presents an excellent buying opportunity. The crowd is acting irrationally, pricing Adobe as a declining legacy company, even though fundamentally it is an ultra-profitable high-tech business successfully integrating AI into its products.
For a medium- to long-term portfolio, buying ADBE at around $220 provides a solid margin of safety. Therefore, I have added this asset to my portfolio. | 1 591 |
| 18 |  📊 The crypto market has shown negative returns for the third consecutive quarter. This is the longest negative streak since 2022.
🤔 What conclusion can we draw from this?
The crypto market is most likely already at its bottom levels. A drop in BTC to, say, $50k and another 20-30% decline in altcoins wouldn't fundamentally change anything anymore. We are all sitting in drawdowns, waiting for the situation to improve.
You might be surprised, but the majority of crypto funds that invested tens or even hundreds of millions of dollars are currently facing the exact same 70-90% drawdowns as the rest of us.
💡 What makes sense to do right now?
1️⃣ Buy fundamentally strong projects that have performed better than the rest of the market over the last few years (for example, Sui)—those that dropped the least and looked stronger than average. Projects whose market cap has plummeted to $20–50 million are likely not very promising in their category, and there is no guarantee they will survive.
2️⃣ Accumulate funds for future investments for when we get a clear "green light" indicating the market is heading back up. To time this, we are waiting for the Fed's next moves, interest rate decisions, liquidity shifts, and so on. | 1 402 |
| 19 |  Cybersecurity is the defining investment trend of the next decade. As promised, here is my breakdown of the sector currently building the protective perimeter for the global economy.
💡 The Core Idea
Digitalization has taken over everything—from the smartphone in your pocket to "smart" home appliances packed with electronics. The deeper the world goes online, the more frequent and sophisticated hacker attacks become. The demand for data protection has already become a baseline necessity for both businesses and governments, meaning this market is practically guaranteed to grow.
🚀 What’s Happening in the Market Right Now?
Back in the spring, the sector took a major hit due to investor fears that artificial intelligence would completely replace traditional security systems. These fears are heavily exaggerated; AI will not replace cybersecurity (which is obvious to anyone who connects the dots). Any dip like that is just an excellent buying opportunity.
Industry leaders have already staged a massive rally. For instance, CrowdStrike is up +110% since April, and Palo Alto Networks has surged +130%. This doesn't mean they can't grow further, but buying overheated assets is a bad idea. We aren't fortune tellers, and we won't know exactly when to take profits if the market reverses.
While the S&P 500 keeps climbing steadily, some cybersecurity players are unfairly lagging behind. A prime example of a company with strong financial metrics that hasn't blasted off into space yet is Qualys. There are other hidden gems in the sector, but you need a laser-focused, selective approach rather than buying up the whole market in one broad sweep.
📉 Strategy: When and How to Buy
You can build positions in this sector regularly during market pullbacks. A 30-50% drop from peak levels for an individual company or the sector as a whole is a strong, clear buy signal.
We are focusing on only two types of companies: either mature businesses with flawless financials, or promising players with an explosive business idea (even if their current earnings remain temporarily low).
Manage your capital wisely:
Do not allocate the same position size to reliable, mega-cap giants (the foundation of the market) as you would to risky, small-cap startups. Manage your risks properly.
Drop some fire 🔥 if the core idea makes sense, or leave a comment below with any questions, and we'll break them down later! | 1 504 |
| 20 |  Qualys is one of the pioneers and recognized leaders in cloud cybersecurity. Back in the spring, the AI "threat" had everyone writing this sector off. Spoiler alert: things look completely different now ✊
Qualys is a prime example, I bought it at the end of May, and it’s already up 57%. This company has solid revenue and plenty of room to grow.
🤔 I can break down the cybersecurity sector and what's actually going on there right now.
Drop a 🔥 if you're interested! | 1 642 |
