Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 골드만삭스는 1월 말부터 시작 된 중국주식에 대한 매도세가 멈추고, 현재 수준에서 연말까지 MSCI 중국지수 기준 +24%의 추가 상승을 이어갈 것으로 전망함. 중국에 투자하는데 주요 화두는 경제재개에서 경제회복으로 전환될 것이며, 중국의 소비 중심의 성장에 초점을 맞춰야 할 것이라 함. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategists expect the selloff in Chinese stocks since late January to reverse as the nation’s economic reopening delivers windfall profits for businesses. Goldman Sachs see potential for the MSCI China Index to reach 85 by the end of 2023, an increase of about 24% from current levels, according to a note Monday from strategists including Kinger Lau. “The principal theme in the stock market will gradually shift from reopening to recovery, with the driver of the potential gains likely rotating from multiple expansion to earnings growth/delivery,” the strategists said. “The growth impulse should be heavily tilted towards the consumer economy, where services sector is still operating significantly below the 2019 pre-pandemic levels,” they added.

Monday...!?🥶

Bloomberg’s previous lists of top hedge fund earners also faced reversals of fortune. D1 Capital’s Dan Sundheim, TCI’s Chris Hohn, Lone Pine Capital’s Stephen Mandel and Viking Global’s Andreas Halvorsen incurred the biggest personal losses last year. What many of those firms have in common: big bets on tech stocks, sometimes including VC investments. Many of the managers started their careers at Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management, earning them the Tiger Cub moniker. Bloomberg’s list excludes those who no longer manage money for external investors. That means Michael Platt isn’t ranked, despite adding $3 billion to his fortune as BlueCrest Capital booked a 153% return. 

Tiger Global’s public funds shrank in 2022 as its bets on China, tech stocks and private startups backfired after years of blockbuster gains. Scott Shleifer, the firm’s head of private investments, lost $530 million. Bloomberg’s analysis only examined firms’ hedge and long-only funds, not dedicated private equity and venture capital portfolios.

Ken Griffin, Steve Cohen and Izzy Englander, worth about $55 billion combined, took the first three spots in Bloomberg's annual ranking of top-earning hedge fund managers. The newest name was Said Haidar, who raked in $859 million in 2022, placing him sixth. Even so, the $13.8 billion collected by the 15 top-earners was the lowest since 2019. Losers include Tiger Global, Lone Pine and Coatue, who had some of their worst returns ever.

주말. 좋다. 🙊

오늘 이 주제로 많이들 이야기 하더라. 👥👥👥

In a nutshell: Fed Has Missed the Boat on a Bigger Move.

Bottom-line: 채권 투자자들은 중앙은행이 50bp 금리인상으로 돌아갈 가능성을 매우 낮게 보고 있음. 두 인사들이 경제지표를 보며 금리인상폭을 다시 높일 수 있단 논란을 만들었지만, 중앙은행은 2월 25bp의 금리인상을 하며 그렇게 할 수 있는 기회와 명분을 이미 멀리 보냈기 때문임. 특히, 중앙은행 인사들이 5.25%의 최종 정책금리를 동의한 마당에, 이유없이 왜 25bp의 적은 인상폭으로 그곳에 도달하는 길을 멀게 만들고 있는가? 생각해 볼 일임. 그럼에도 불구 금리인상폭을 다시 높일 경우, i) 중앙은행이 인플레이션을 통제해가고 있단 설득을 잃고, ii) 경기의 연착륙이란 목표도 포기하는 것이며, iii) 정책의 일관성 상실, iv) 인플레이션이 통제 불가능하다는 공황과 부정적인 상호작용을 반복적으로 만들게 될 것임. On Thursday afternoon, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland President Loretta Mester remarked that she saw a compelling case for a bigger increase earlier this month when policymakers met. Not much later in the day, her colleague James Bullard commented that he would not rule out supporting a 50-basis point hike at the March meeting. Whatever their comments, the Fed’s February move of 25 basis points will remain a missed opportunity to hike more, and it would seem that there is now little chance of reviving such a possibility. By the middle of January, it was clear from Fed officials’ steer that the monetary authority was only considering a 25-basis point increase — an end-of-season folly that is coming to haunt it two weeks after the decision. After all, if an overwhelming majority of policymakers have already penciled in a rate of 5.25%, and all economic participants are working on that assumption, why drag your feet without good reason and prolong getting to the destination? There is little doubt that if the Fed were to have met in the aftermath of January’s non-farm payrolls expansion, resurgent inflation data and stand-out retail sales, it would have probably raised rates by a bigger margin. But having dialed down the pace, it’s too late for the Fed to accelerate again, for that would a) send a message to the markets that policymakers have lost the narrative on inflation; b) that the Fed is abandoning its avowed goal of a soft landing; c) that there is no policy coherence; and d) that the Fed is panicking that inflation is out of control, spurring a negative feedback loop. None of this is lost on the markets. Even in the wake of comments by both Mester and Bullard — notwithstanding the fact that neither is a voter this year — interest-rate traders see a bigger move next month as just a fractional tail risk.

최근 시장의 화두를 그림으로 보기: https://www.instagram.com/macroinvesting

Thank God it's Friday. 🔥

Bottom-line: Back to 50-bp Fed hikes? James Bullard won't rule out supporting a half-percentage-point increase in March, citing "a long battle against inflation." Loretta Mester said she saw a compelling case for a similar move at the FOMC's last meeting, and predicted officials will take the benchmark above 5% "and hold it there for some time." Investors are ramping up bets on how far the Fed will go. Money markets now expect a peak of 5.2% in July, up from 4.9% two weeks ago.

Central Banks 8:45 a.m.: Fed's Mester speaks 1:30 p.m.: Fed's Bullard speaks 4:00 p.m.: Fed's Cook speaks 6:15 p.m.: Fed's Mester speaks

Margin.

생산자 물가에서 소비자 물가를 차감한 차이를 하얀색 차트로 만들고, 분석가들이 추정하는 이익률을 파란색 차트로 만들 경우 약 3개월의 시차를 두고 추정치가 반응함. 그렇다면, 금일 발표 된 생산자 물가 지표가 예상을 상회한 것은 최소한, 기업 이익률에는 우려보다 덜한 것임.

생산자 물가지표 발표 전, 또 하나의 우려는 소비자 물가 대비 생산자 물가 상승폭이 적을 경우, 산식(생산자 물가 - 소비자 물가)과 일치하는 기업 이익률이 악화되는 신호로 받아들여질 수 있다는 것이었음. 지표의 추정은 5.4% 증가였고, 발표는 6.0% 증가였으며, 지난 달 6.2% 증가는 6.5% 증가로 수정되었음.