Macro Trader

Bottom-line: 통화정책회의에서 인플레이션에 대한 실질적인 증거를 찾고 있다고 발언했는데, 2개월 연속 하락이 그에 충분하진 알 수 없지만, 적어도 이에 압박을 받을 것임. Powell noted at the end of November that he’s looking for “substantially more evidence” to be certain that inflation is actually declining. I don’t know if this second straight month of declines will be enough to meet that standard, but he’ll surely be pressed on that at the briefing.

Bottom-line: 중앙은행의 통화정책이 인플레이션을 통제하고 있다는 의미있는 첫 신호로 해석함. Lindsay Rosner, multisector portfolio manager at PGIM Fixed Income, says this was an “important piece of the story of rate hikes working.” She calls it the “first really meaningful beat.”

Bottom-line: 중앙은행이 내년 금리인상 폭을 25bp로 하는데 자신감을 줄 수 있는 발표가 되었음. This should give Powell some confidence tomorrow if he had planned on signaling a further step down in the magnitude of rate hikes to 25 basis points in February, after the 50 basis points that’s expected on Wednesday.

Treasury yields fall sharply on the CPI report, with the 2-year down 20bps. Yields were falling heading into CPI, and the data affirm inflation is now in retreat.

Wowsers! Look at those stock futures, up 3%. We’re seeing a similar pattern to last month.

일어나자, ☕️

🤔... 🤦🏻‍♂️

뉴스가 뜸한 것은, 무슨 헤드라인이 있었더라도, 오늘 물가에 다 덮힐 것이므로. 😖

Bottom-line: HK Re-open Hong Kong is scrapping some of its remaining Covid restrictions following China’s rapid shift away from the zero-tolerance approach. The government will remove a ban on international arrivals going to bars or eating at restaurants, and stop requiring people to use a health app to enter venues, Chief Executive John Lee said at a press conference Tuesday. He didn’t mention whether the government will retain the mask mandate.

Implication: 중국이 바이러스 억제정책을 완화하기 시작하면서 COVID-19 바이러스의 위험성이 높지 않다는 공식 의견을 지속 강조하고 있음. 일반 독감과 동일한 0.1%의 사망률에 폐에 이르는 손상이 거의 없다는 발언이 이번에 추가되었음. 확진자 수가 줄어드는데 대해서는 그만큼 검사를 받는 사람이 적어 의심을 받지만, 정책의 변화 이후 계속적으로 위험이 높지 않음을 강조하면서 경제재개를 위한 발걸음을 이어가고 있음. Chinese officials continued to downplay the risks of Covid-19 as restrictions are eased, with a top medical adviser saying the fatality rate from the omicron variant of the virus is in line with influenza. The death rate from omicron is around 0.1%, similar to the common flu, and the infection rarely reaches the lungs, Zhong Nanshan was quoted in an interview with state news agency Xinhua. Most people recover from the variant within seven to 10 days, he said. Zhong’s comments follow the government’s latest line on the coronavirus, which talks down the disease’s dangers as China moves toward exiting its Covid Zero policy. The nation reported 10,514 local infections for Saturday, more than 20% lower than Friday. Doubts have been raised about the accuracy of case numbers because fewer people are being tested.

바브. 🤔

Bottom-line: Bonds as Recession-Proof 2023 Trade. For a long time, one acronym reigned supreme on Wall Street — TINA, or “there is no alternative,” which was used to talk about the allure of stocks in a low interest-rate environment. But now, BARB — or “bonds are back” — is the new queen.

그럼 이만. 편안한 주말! 🙇🏻‍♂️

블룸버그 투명하군, 너도 몰랐구나.

S&P 500 futures sank while yields on 10-year Treasuries climbed after November PPI measures topped estimates across the board, adding to inflation jitters.