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پست‌های کانال
⏱️ MARKET UPDATE | Thursday 12 November, 12:00–14:00 GMT
▫️🇺🇸 President Trump said the US does not need a deal with Iran (13:07 GMT).
▫️🇺🇸 US initial jobless claims rose to 200k, above the 194k forecast (previous revised to 191k), while continuing claims eased to 1.697M vs 1.71M expected.
▫️💻 Nvidia announced that Jensen Huang has resigned as CEO, naming Colette Kress interim CEO while the board searches for a permanent successor; Q3 results remain due on 17 November.
▫️🏦 Cleveland Fed President Hammack said inflation is moving in the wrong direction and policy needs to shift to a restrictive stance, while favouring smaller, steadier rate moves.
▫️🌐 USTR Greer said China is only partially complying on trade, and that Trump is prepared to act on Mexico tariffs.
▫️🇷🇺 Putin began talks with US envoys Witkoff and Kushner, and warned that any foreign troops in Ukraine would be targeted (Interfax).
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk.
| 2 | ⏱️ MARKET UPDATE | Thursday 12 November, 10:00–12:00 GMT
▫️🇪🇺 All 71 economists in a new poll expect the ECB to raise its deposit rate to 2.75% in December (64 of 73 in October), with 46 seeing that as the peak and 25 expecting 3.00%.
▫️🇺🇦 EC President von der Leyen welcomed the Abu Dhabi peace talks and NATO's Rutte called the news positive, though he said it remains to be seen whether Russia is willing to engage.
▫️🇺🇦 Ukraine's President Zelenskiy said he will hold talks with US representatives later on Thursday and that Europe must be at the table in any talks with Russia.
▫️🇩🇪 German Chancellor Merz sees a good chance of concluding EU budget negotiations before year-end.
▫️🇬🇧 UK Finance Minister Healey said any deal with the EU must deliver benefits that outweigh the trade-offs.
▫️🛢 Oman's emergency committee is discussing its response to an oil tanker that ran aground off Al Qibliyah Island, according to state TV.
▫️🇺🇸 US Senator Cotton urged Commerce Secretary Lutnick to ban Chinese memory-chip maker CXMT from the US (CNBC).
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 24 |
| 3 | ⏱️ MARKET UPDATE | Thursday 12 November, 06:00–08:00 GMT
▫️🇬🇧 UK GDP grew 0.7% q/q in Q3 and 1.9% y/y, both in line with forecasts, while the September monthly estimate beat at +0.2% m/m (forecast 0%), with 3M/3M at 0.7% (forecast 0.6%) and y/y at 2.1% (forecast 1.9%).
▫️🏭 UK manufacturing output rose 0.7% m/m in September against a forecast 0.5% decline, and industrial production gained 0.3% m/m (forecast -0.4%).
▫️⚖️ The UK goods trade deficit widened to £22.29B from £18.01B, larger than the £19.2B expected.
▫️🇯🇵 BoJ board member Asada said Japan has entered an inflationary phase and that any rate increases should be gradual.
▫️🛢 Iranian state media, citing the IRGC Navy, reported explosions on two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz overnight; this has not been independently confirmed.
▫️📉 Nasdaq 100 futures fell 1.2% and S&P 500 futures 0.5% in Asian trading as Nvidia-related concerns weighed on tech.
▫️🇨🇳 China's commerce ministry said Beijing and Washington are in close communication on tariff reductions.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 30 |
| 4 | 📅 TODAY'S OUTLOOK | THURSDAY 12 NOVEMBER
Times in GMT
▫️ 07:00 🇬🇧 UK Q3 GDP prelim QoQ (f: 0.7%, p: 0.5%) and YoY (f: 1.9%, p: 1.4%); monthly GDP estimate MoM (f: 0%, p: 0.1%).
▫️ 07:00 🇬🇧 UK manufacturing production MoM (f: -0.5%, p: 1.2%), industrial production MoM (f: -0.4%, p: 0.8%) and goods trade balance (f: -19.2B, p: -18.01B).
▫️ 07:00 🇸🇪 Swedish CPI YoY (f: 0.9%, p: 0.9%).
▫️ 13:30 🇺🇸 US initial jobless claims (f: 194k, p: 189k) and continuing claims (f: 1.71M, p: 1.718M).
▫️ 15:00 🇺🇸 US existing home sales (f: 3.85M, p: 3.99M).
▫️ 17:00 🇺🇸 EIA crude oil inventories (f: -1.483M, p: -0.865M).
▫️ 18:00 🇺🇸 US 30-year bond auction (previous high yield 5.618%).
▫️ Fed speakers: Hammack 14:00, Barr 15:00, Goolsbee 16:15, Daly 18:10, Schmid 18:30.
▫️ ECB speakers: Vujcic 15:30, Nagel 17:30, President Lagarde 19:30.
▫️ 21:05 🇺🇸 Cisco Systems Q1 FY2027 earnings.
▫️ 21:30 🇳🇿 New Zealand manufacturing PMI (p: 56.5).
What to watch: UK growth figures early in the session, US jobless claims, and a busy line-up of Fed and ECB speakers including President Lagarde.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 25 |
| 5 | 🌅 OVERNIGHT RECAP | THURSDAY 12 NOVEMBER
16:00–06:00 GMT
📈 Markets & companies
▫️ Wall Street closed higher on renewed AI optimism, with the Nasdaq 100 up 2.3%.
▫️ Nvidia's board is preparing to replace CEO Jensen Huang and is considering an interim chief (WSJ); Nvidia shares and US stock futures fell in after-hours trading.
▫️ The White House is not intervening in the Nvidia board's decision (Washington Post).
▫️ Taiwan stocks fell more than 2% in Asian trading.
🛢 Energy & geopolitics
▫️ Brent crude settled up 1.39% at $92.76 a barrel and WTI up 0.57% at $86.53.
▫️ US Vice President Vance is considering direct talks with Iran, though discussions are preliminary (WSJ), while Iranian officials said the Strait of Hormuz will stay closed unless the US meets Tehran's conditions.
▫️ US envoys Witkoff and Kushner are due to meet President Putin in Moscow today (Axios), after Russia struck energy sites around Kyiv overnight.
▫️ Saudi civil defence said two ballistic missiles aimed at the Mecca region were destroyed, while the Houthis claimed a drone strike on a pumping station near Yanbu.
🏦 Central banks & data
▫️ BoE's Greene said it is appropriate to proactively tighten policy as UK wage growth remains too high (FT).
▫️ BoJ board member Asada urged caution on the pace of any further rate hikes, saying the policy rate is already in the neutral range.
▫️ Japan's October PPI rose 7.1% y/y (forecast 6.5%, previous 6.8%) and 0.7% m/m (forecast 0.3%).
▫️ Japan's top currency diplomat Mimura said recent FX moves are too rapid.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 27 |
| 6 | 🥇 GOLD DAILY | Tuesday 10 November
24 hours to 12:30 GMT
▫️ 📉 Spot gold fell 1.5% to $4,077.30 an ounce by 12:22 GMT (Kitco), giving back Monday's gain of more than 1% (Reuters).
▫️ 🏦 Fed Governor Waller said in London that he would back a 25bp hike in December even if October inflation improves, and that a 50bp move should be considered if core CPI rises around 0.3% m/m or more (Investing.com).
▫️ 📊 CME FedWatch showed an 84% probability of a December rate hike, and Richmond Fed President Barkin said on Monday the Fed should move "with care" against inflation (Reuters).
▫️ 💵 The dollar firmed, with the dollar index up about 0.1% near 101.7, which makes gold more expensive for non-US buyers.
▫️ 🛢 Falling oil prices on Iran de-escalation hopes ease inflation pressure, a factor some analysts see as supportive for gold over time via lower rate expectations (Reuters).
💡 What it means
Rate-hike expectations are the dominant driver: hawkish Fed comments and a firmer dollar raised the cost of holding non-yielding gold and reversed Monday's rally. Cooling energy prices are a potential offset, but traders appear unwilling to take a view before today's inflation data. A hot core reading would add to the case for a bigger hike and weigh on gold; a soft one could ease that pressure.
👀 What to watch
▫️ 13:30 GMT US CPI, October (m/m f: 0.3%, p: 0.6%; core m/m f: 0.2%, p: 0.3%; no y/y figure this month)
▫️ 18:00 GMT US 10-year note auction
▫️ 20:30 GMT Fed's Bowman speaks
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 56 |
| 7 | 📅 TODAY'S OUTLOOK | TUESDAY 10 NOVEMBER
Times in GMT
▫️ 07:00 Norway CPI y/y (f: 3.7%, p: 3.4%).
▫️ 10:00 UK 30-year gilt auction (previous yield: 5.517%).
▫️ 11:00 US NFIB Small Business Optimism Index (f: 98.2, p: 97.9).
▫️ 13:30 US CPI m/m (f: 0.3%, p: 0.6%) and core CPI m/m (f: 0.2%, p: 0.3%).
▫️ 17:00 EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook and USDA WASDE crop report.
▫️ 18:00 US 10-year note auction (previous yield: 5.300%).
▫️ 18:30 Bank of Canada meeting minutes.
▫️ 21:30 API weekly crude inventories (p: -5.267M barrels).
▫️ Central bank speakers: Fed's Waller 09:00, Logan 15:50, Schmid 18:30 and Bowman 20:30; BoE's Lombardelli 12:30 and Pill 18:30; ECB's Cipollone 14:00, Lane 16:45 and Escriva 17:30.
▫️ Also today: Anthropic is expected to begin marketing its Nasdaq IPO (IFR).
👀 What to watch: the US inflation release and a busy slate of Fed speakers, alongside any developments in US-Iran talks.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 61 |
| 8 | 🌅 OVERNIGHT RECAP | TUESDAY 10 NOVEMBER
16:00–06:00 GMT
🛢 Energy & geopolitics
▫️ Oil fell sharply on Monday, with Brent settling at $92.57 (-5.85%) and WTI at $86.85 (-4.38%) as hopes for a US-Iran deal grew.
▫️ After meeting Qatar's Prime Minister, President Trump said he sees momentum toward ending the Iran conflict and that military action does not seem necessary for now.
▫️ Al Arabiya, citing unnamed sources, reported a possible preliminary deal covering limited Iranian enrichment and a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz; this is unconfirmed, and Iran's top security official denied that talks are taking place.
▫️ The US moved aircraft out of RAF Mildenhall, a second UK base, after a threat from Iran (WSJ).
🏦 Central banks
▫️ Fed's Barkin said he has no base case for the December meeting and sees the main risk on the inflation side of the mandate.
▫️ The BoJ's October summary of opinions showed several members favouring further rate hikes toward a neutral level.
▫️ BoE Governor Bailey said UK activity is proving more resilient than expected, partly thanks to AI investment, but warned that an AI asset bubble poses financial stability risks.
📈 Markets & companies
▫️ US stocks posted their best day since April as dip buyers returned after a tech selloff, helped by lower oil prices.
▫️ Nvidia was in focus after the NYT reported that a US inquiry into a Singapore chip buyer was halted following an intervention by an Nvidia executive.
▫️ Anthropic is set to begin marketing its Nasdaq IPO on Tuesday (IFR), with Google, Nvidia, Microsoft and others investing $26 billion via a private placement at the IPO price.
🌐 Also overnight
▫️ China's October exports rose 35.2% y/y in dollar terms (f: 33.5%), while the trade surplus narrowed to $105.28 billion (f: $125.8 billion).
▫️ Japan's September household spending fell 6.8% y/y (f: -3%, p: -3.1%).
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 54 |
| 9 |  Will US inflation data lock in a December Fed hike, or spark a relief rally? 🤔
Senior Market Analyst Mohanad Yakout breaks down this week's top catalysts: October CPI and PPI, AI earnings from CoreWeave, Applied Materials, and Cisco, and oil's slide below $100 on US–Iran deal hopes.
Plus, technical analysis on FX majors, Gold, Oil, and indices.
Watch now 👉 https://scopemarkets.short.gy/wa29 | 65 |
| 10 | Will US inflation data lock in a December Fed hike, or spark a relief rally? 🤔
Senior Market Analyst Mohanad Yakout breaks down this week's top catalysts: October CPI and PPI, AI earnings from CoreWeave, Applied Materials, and Cisco, and oil's slide below $100 on US–Iran deal hopes.
Plus, technical analysis on FX majors, Gold, Oil, and indices.
Watch now 👉 https://scopemarkets.short.gy/wa29 | 1 |
| 11 |  +1📅 | #What2Watch
These market news events could make waves in your portfolio.
Check them out and stay tuned for our analysis on YouTube.
-
#MarketCalendar | #MarketOutlook | 70 |
| 12 | ⏱️ MARKET UPDATE | Friday 6 November, 14:00–16:00 GMT
▫️🇮🇷 An Iranian source told Al Arabiya that Tehran is responding positively to the mediators' latest proposal and awaits practical trust-building steps from Washington (unconfirmed).
▫️☢️ Iranian negotiators are reviewing proposals to limit the country's nuclear programme, the Times of Israel reported, citing a US official and a diplomat.
▫️🛢 An oil tanker was reported sinking in the Strait of Hormuz after being targeted, according to Iran's Sepah News (unconfirmed).
▫️🇺🇸 University of Michigan sentiment rose to 51 in the November preliminary reading (forecast 48, previous 48.0), while 1-year inflation expectations eased to 4.3% (forecast 4.6%, previous 4.7%) and 5-year expectations to 3.4% (forecast 3.5%, previous 3.5%).
▫️🏦 Fed's Musalem said inflation must return to 2% on a timely basis, pointing to energy shocks and the AI buildout as sources of excess price pressure.
▫️🇪🇺 The ECB's top banking supervisor is considering a review of bank lending to data centres to gauge risks from swings in AI sentiment and valuations.
▫️🌍 IMF chief Georgieva said AI-related market volatility is likely to continue and that large, rising global imbalances remain a concern.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 97 |
| 13 | ⏱️ MARKET UPDATE | Friday 6 November, 12:00–14:00 GMT
▫️🇺🇸 US nonfarm payrolls rose 165k in October, well above the 70k forecast, with September revised up to 60k from 29k.
▫️🇺🇸 The US unemployment rate fell to 4.1% (forecast and previous 4.2%), while average earnings rose 3.1% y/y (forecast 2.9%, previous 3.0%) and 0.4% m/m (forecast 0.3%).
▫️📈 Traders added to bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike in December after the US jobs data.
▫️🇨🇦 Canada lost 4.7k jobs in October (forecast +15k) and unemployment rose to 6.7% (forecast and previous 6.5%); swaps pricing for a Bank of Canada hike in December fell to about 32% from 40%.
▫️🇬🇧 BoE's Pill said the Bank will not repeat the 2022 hiking cycle and that rates could hold or even fall if growth stalls next year.
▫️🛢 A Greek tanker operator said one seafarer died in the 5 November explosion on its oil products tanker in the Gulf, likely caused by an unidentified missile.
▫️📊 S&P 500 futures rose 0.3% as buyers returned to AI stocks after the index's steepest drop in more than a year.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 85 |
| 14 | Brent is near $99 on Iran supply fears while Bitcoin sits near $75K. Which breaks first? 🤔 | 64 |
| 15 | ⏱️ MARKET UPDATE | Friday 6 November, 10:00–12:00 GMT
▫️🇪🇺 Eurozone retail sales fell 0.7% month on month, against a forecast of -0.1% and a previous 0.1%, while the annual rate slowed to 0.4% (forecast 0.6%, previous 0.8%).
▫️🇮🇷 A senior Iranian security official said Tehran is not satisfied with written commitments and wants practical US steps before any diplomacy (Iranian state TV, unconfirmed).
▫️🛢 Kazakhstan said its oil exports to Germany will not resume by the end of 2026 (Interfax).
▫️🇨🇳 China said it will improve its system for stabilising capital markets (CCTV, state media).
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 68 |
| 16 | ⏱️ MARKET UPDATE | Friday 6 November, 08:00–10:00 GMT
▫️🇺🇸 Fed's Williams described the US economy as remarkably resilient, with a stable labour market, wage growth consistent with the 2% goal and well-anchored inflation expectations, and said this is an appropriate time to gather more information.
▫️🇺🇸 Williams also said energy costs are passing through to inflation as expected, while the effect of tariffs has now mostly worked its way through.
▫️🇪🇺 ECB's Lane said energy inflation will influence wage negotiations and price setting across the economy, and that fiscal policy has been more expansive than expected, with tightening anticipated from next year.
▫️🇨🇭 Swiss consumer confidence fell to -44.9, well below the -35.5 forecast and the previous -34.
▫️🛢 Ukraine is reported to have confirmed a strike on Russia's Afipsky refinery.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 65 |
| 17 | 📅 TODAY'S OUTLOOK | FRIDAY 6 NOVEMBER
From 06:00 GMT, all times GMT
▫️ 07:00 🇩🇪 German industrial production: MoM f: -0.1%, p: 2.0%; YoY f: 1.2%, p: 2.33%.
▫️ 10:00 🇪🇺 Eurozone retail sales: MoM f: -0.1%, p: 0.1%; YoY f: 0.6%, p: 0.8%.
▫️ 13:30 🇺🇸 US jobs report: nonfarm payrolls f: 70k, p: 29k; private payrolls f: 65k, p: 46k; unemployment rate f: 4.2%, p: 4.2%; average earnings MoM f: 0.3%, p: 0.1%; YoY f: 2.9%, p: 3.0%; average workweek f: 34.4, p: 34.4.
▫️ 13:30 🇨🇦 Canada jobs report: employment change f: 15k, p: -68.3k; unemployment rate f: 6.5%, p: 6.5%; participation rate f: 64.8%, p: 64.8%.
▫️ 15:00 🇺🇸 University of Michigan prelim: sentiment f: 48, p: 48.0; expectations f: 49, p: 48.8; current conditions f: 47, p: 46.7; 1-year inflation f: 4.6%, p: 4.7%; 5-year inflation f: 3.5%, p: 3.5%.
▫️ 15:00 🇨🇦 Canadian Ivey PMI: p: 58.2.
▫️ 🏦 Central bank speakers: Fed's Williams and ECB's Lane 09:30, SNB's Tschudin 11:00, BoE's Pill 12:15, Fed's Musalem 14:10, BoJ's Ueda 16:00, Fed's Bowman 17:15.
▫️ 18:00 🛢 Baker Hughes US rig count: total p: 603; oil p: 462.
▫️ 20:00 🇺🇸 US consumer credit: f: $13.8B, p: $8.28B.
Today's focus is on the US and Canadian jobs reports at 13:30 GMT, with Fed speakers through the session.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 55 |
| 18 | 🌍 OVERNIGHT RECAP | FRIDAY 6 NOVEMBER
Thu 16:00 GMT – Fri 06:00 GMT
🛢 Energy & geopolitics
▫️ Crude rallied on Thursday, with Brent settling at $98.29/bbl, up 3.88%, and WTI at $90.52/bbl, up 2.72%.
▫️ Iran is reviewing concrete proposals on its nuclear programme (NYT), while a senior Iranian official said Tehran sent a proposal via Qatar that it will discuss only once the US meets seven demands; Washington has not confirmed this.
▫️ President Trump said he met Russian envoy Dmitriev and that a settlement of the Russia-Ukraine war is very close.
🏦 Central banks & policy
▫️ BoE Governor Bailey said inflation risks are on the upside and that future decisions hinge on how fast inflation falls.
▫️ ECB President Lagarde said policymakers must watch for secondary effects of the energy price shock.
▫️ BoC Governor Macklem said he is optimistic about lower US tariffs but cannot rule out escalation first.
▫️ Canada's 2026 budget projects a C$62.3bn deficit for 2026-27, includes C$45bn in housing measures and cuts the 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.0% from 1.1%.
📈 Markets & companies
▫️ US stocks sold off sharply, led by technology, on concern that a Democratic-controlled Congress could tighten AI regulation.
▫️ Taiwan stocks closed 4.5% lower, and officials there said the national stabilisation fund may hold an emergency meeting if trading turns disorderly.
▫️ South Korea's finance minister said stocks are overreacting to external factors and that rules on borrowed investment will be relaxed to reduce volatility.
▫️ China's 10-year yield fell to 1.581%, near its record low, as 10-year treasury futures hit a record high.
🌐 Also overnight
▫️ Japan's September cash earnings rose 4.6% y/y against a 3.8% forecast, with real wages up 2.2%.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 53 |
| 19 | ⏱️ MARKET UPDATE | Thursday 5 November, 12:00–14:00 GMT
▫️🇬🇧 The Bank of England raised Bank Rate by 25bp to 4.00% from 3.75%, with all nine MPC members voting for the move against expectations of a 7-2 split.
▫️🇬🇧 MPC members Lombardelli and Pill see a case for a further rate rise in the near term, with Pill saying a single 25bp hike is unlikely to be sufficient.
▫️🇬🇧 Governor Bailey said a further increase may be warranted unless there is progress towards resolving the Iran conflict, while traders priced about a 50% chance of a December hike.
▫️🇺🇸 US initial jobless claims fell to 189k, below the 196k forecast and the revised 195k prior, while continuing claims rose to 1.718M (forecast 1.71M).
▫️🇺🇸 US Q3 preliminary productivity rose 3.6% (forecast 2.7%), while unit labor costs fell 0.7% (forecast +0.4%).
▫️🇺🇸 Fed's Hammack said monetary policy needs to move to a restrictive stance and that gradual rate hikes are the best way to bring inflation back to 2%.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 49 |
| 20 | ⏱️ MARKET UPDATE | Thursday 5 November, 10:00–12:00 GMT
▫️🇪🇺 Eurozone producer prices rose 11.1% y/y in the latest reading, above the 10.6% forecast and up from 8.2% previously; the monthly rise of 2.5% matched forecasts (previous 1.9%).
▫️🏦 ECB policymaker Zigman said there is a rather big chance of a rate increase in December, adding it is too early to judge how much more tightening is needed.
▫️🛢 Iran's navy said a tanker hit a mine in the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday morning (IRNA, unconfirmed), while the Omani and Iranian foreign ministers discussed resuming navigation and keeping trade and energy flowing (ONA).
▫️🇷🇺 The Kremlin said Russian diesel will find buyers after reports of tankers changing course, and said its operation in Ukraine continues as a peaceful settlement has not been possible so far.
▫️🇺🇸 US Challenger job cuts came in at 43.994k, compared with 43.281k previously.
▫️🇨🇳 About 600,000 Nvidia H200 AI chips are in Hong Kong awaiting shipment to mainland China, according to sources, with Beijing yet to approve large-quantity imports.
*Not investment advice. Trading carries risk. | 56 |
