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پستهای کانال
Get more insights into markets, macroeconomics, and industries. Market intelligence from top investment banks, consultancies, and leading business media.
| 2 |  +5🇺🇸#bubble #ai #stocks #us #indicators
BCA Research estimates that the AI bubble is bound to burst eventually; however, their MacroQuant model suggests that this point has not yet been reached.
They also advise monitoring indicators such as:
- AI adoption measures.
- GPU rental rates.
- Memory chip prices.
- Token spending.
- Installations of coding assistants. | 2 229 |
| 3 |  🇪🇺#stocks #europe #etf #seasonality
June is usually the weakest month of the year for the MSCI Europe.
How to invest in MSCI Europe via ETFs:
🇪🇺 iShares Core MSCI Europe
🇪🇺 Xtrackers MSCI Europe
🇪🇺 UBS Core MSCI Europe
🇪🇺 BNP Paribas Easy MSCI Europe
🇪🇺 SPDR MSCI Europe
🇪🇺 Amundi Core MSCI Europe
🇪🇺 Deka MSCI Europe
🇪🇺 HSBC MSCI Europe
🇺🇸 iShares Core MSCI Europe
🇪🇺 Invesco MSCI Europe
🇪🇺 Ossiam MSCI Europe
🇪🇺 iShares MSCI Europe EUR Hedged
🇺🇸 Xtrackers MSCI Europe USD Hedged
🌟 Subscribe | 1 717 |
| 4 |  🇺🇸#bonds #us #correlaton
Experts sees another signal pointing to a potential rise in US interest rates (more signals here and here) is the correlation between the XLE/TLT ratio (the energy sector relative to long-term bonds) and the 30-year US Treasury yield.
🔜 The correlation between them is nearly flawless, but a divergence has formed between these two indicators since the beginning of this year. The XLE/TLT ratio has surged. However, the 30-year bond yield has failed to support this move. Historically, the XLE/TLT ratio has always served as a reliable leading indicator for long-term Treasury yields.
🔜 The economic logic is simple: the outperformance of energy stocks (XLE) over bonds (TLT) signals capital inflows into commodity markets and rising inflationary expectations. Expensive oil pushes inflation upward, and yields obediently follow inflation.
🔜 If the correlation holds in the future, we can expect long-term Treasury yields to rise by 100–120 basis points over the next 12 months.
🔜 Then again, the leading indicator could be mistaken. In this case, energy stocks (XLE) must correct downward quickly and sharply, removing the need for yields to rise.
🌟 Subscribe | 1 190 |
| 5 |  🇺🇸#elections #stocks #us #history #seasonality
Goldman: historically, the S&P 500 begins a strong upward trend a month before the US midterm elections.
Historical average S&P 500 price performance post-midterms (see):
- 3 months later: +5.8%
- 6 months later: +10.5%
- 12 months later: +14.8%
The US midterm elections are scheduled for November 3, 2026.
🌟 Subscribe | 882 |
| 6 |  🇺🇸#stocks #us #strategy #smallcap
BofA examined 36 years of data and identified the top-performing factor for investing in US small-cap stocks (Russell 2000 Index). The strategy is straightforward: take the entire index and select the top 20% of companies with the highest FCF/EV ratio. This metric measures how much free cash flow a business generates relative to its enterprise value (market cap + debt - cash).
Buying this top quintile and regularly rebalancing the portfolio yielded an average of around 16% annually, consistently outperforming the broader market.
Other cash-flow-driven metrics also demonstrated strong investment performance. | 880 |
| 7 |  🇺🇸#etf #stocks #us #seasonality #VIX
Historically, US market volatility tends to rise at the beginning of summer, although a more significant upward trend typically materializes by mid-summer.
Positions on both rising and falling S&P 500 volatility can be taken through the following ETFs:
🇺🇸 ProShares VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
🇺🇸 iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures ETN
🇺🇸 iPath Series B S&P 500 VIX Mid-Term Futures ETN
🇺🇸 ProShares Ultra VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
🇺🇸 ProShares Short VIX Short-Term Futures ETF
🇪🇺 WisdomTree S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures 2.25x Daily Leveraged
🇪🇺 WisdomTree S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures
🇺🇸 ProShares VIX Mid-Term Futures ETF
🇺🇸 Volatility Shares 2x Long VIX Futures ETF
🇺🇸 Volatility Shares -1x Short VIX Futures ETF
🇺🇸 Volatility Shares Premium Plus ETF
*Professional market participants generally do not use ETFs/ETNs; instead, they buy options directly on the VIX index or trade volatility via broker-offered CFD instruments. | 283 |
| 8 |  🇺🇸#monetarypolicy #us #earnings #correlation #history
A rare and unusual situation. Expected US corporate earnings (green line) have shot up dramatically, while the 12-month change in interest rates (white line), on the contrary, has moved lower or stalled at the zero mark.
When business is booming and corporate profits are rising (green line is soaring), the Central Bank (Fed) almost always raises interest rates (making the white line rise as well) to prevent the economy from "overheating."
The chart shows that the current situation is unique. Historical experience suggests that either corporate earnings will soon drop, or interest rates will have to rise again to catch up with this rapid growth.
—————————————
The bond market is already betting on higher interest rates in the US. | 1 080 |
| 9 |  🇺🇸#monetarypolicy #bonds #stocks #us #correlation #history
For the past 30 years, there’s been a clear rule: as soon as the US 2-year yield rises above the Fed funds rate, the central bank is guaranteed to keep hiking. For the stock market, these rate hikes always trigger a sell-off. Eventually, the economy slows down, and bond yields head back down — BCA Research | 890 |
| 10 |  🌎#etf #stocks #latam #history
Morgan Stanley believes that the long-term outlook for the Latin American equity market looks promising, driven by close economic ties with the US and the active development of the commodity and agricultural sectors. Additional growth drivers include fiscal consolidation, monetary easing, and structural reforms—measures designed to restore investor confidence and crowd in private capital.
#analogy The bank emphasizes that the region's current bull market is still in its early innings and sees great similarities to the 2003–2007 boom, which was triggered at the time by China's entry into the WTO.
MSCI LatAm can be invested in through ETFs:
🇪🇺 iShares MSCI EM Latin America ETF
🇪🇺 Amundi MSCI EM Latin America ETF
more ETFs to invest in the Latin American stock market:
🇧🇷 iShares Ibovespa Index Fund ETF
🇲🇽 BBVA - BMV MEXTRAC ETF
🇺🇸 Franklin FTSE Latin America ETF
🇺🇸 iShares Latin America 40 ETF
🇪🇺 Xtrackers MSCI EM Latin America ESG Swap ETF
🌟 Subscribe | 1 190 |
