In a grinding war of attrition, the winner is always going to be the side which has more to attrit. Here in Russian Mariupol, and in Donbass for my 5th straight summer, and 5th summer of the SMO, this has definitely been the hardest summer so far - petrol crisis, relentless ukrainian drone attacks on energy infrasctucture, and not only, power blackouts, and of course and worst of all every day destruction and death here in Russia, the civilian death count in the hundreds, including dozens of children killed.
However we've got through it, and although it's no coincidence that there are far fewer civilian deaths in ukraine, because Russia doesn't target civilians, it's still worse there. Kiev can be found on any given night a smouldering mass as logistical centres are eliminated one by one, with food shortages becoming more common by the week. Targeted Russian strikes have effectively taken Odessa port out of operation, leaving ukraine more or less landlocked. And that's before we even start on a ukrainian army recruitment crisis so severe it has screaming fathers being dragged off the streets to serve in front of their equally screaming children. And a demographic crisis so extreme we're on course to see ukraine soon at around half its population before the ukraine-terminating 'Euromaidan' of 2013/14, under 25 million, with any next generation notable only by their complete absence.
And then politics, ukraine's fortunes are of course perpetually at the feet of the mighty western behemouths, and what there. Trump obviously is Trump, sometimes more pro-ukrainian than old Joe, other times leaving Kiev without any air defence missiles giving Russia a generous portion of fish in a very inviting barrel. The UK's Andy Burnham has said all the standard things, but everyone knows his main interest is in doing TikTok videos showing us all what a 'top bloke' he is, and making a mock-up Number 10 in Manchester. Macron is fading like an old slap mark, next up.... bring on Marine, she's not the biggest ukraine fan, is she. And even politics back home, dictator Zelensky is clinging onto power yet every single opinion poll shows that if they actually had a democratic election there he would get about as many votes as his wife has designer handbags, hundreds or low thousands.
So yeah, ukraine can fuck shit up here in Russia a bit, sadly, kill civilians, tragically. But probably not even Boris Johnson in his black heart of black hearts actually things ukraine can win. Ukraine is in a very bad place at the end of this summer 2026, but unless ukraine changes tack dramatically, comes to the table with some proposals to resolve this, then by the time winter rolls around summer of 26 could be looking like a real dolce vita there, not to even mention by the end of winter.
The abyss for ukraine is near, and beckoning, on so many levels.