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پستهای کانال
BREAKING: President Trump says the US is striking Iranian targets near the Strait of Hormuz and warns Iran not to retaliate.
Brent crude oil prices are nearing $95/barrel.
| 2 | However,On the upside need to clear 4420 , level to resume uptrend | 272 |
| 3 | Gold at 4354
Bounce back from 4325, as mentioned in live stream
Key support at 4320-25 is still intact | 272 |
| 4 | FED’S BARR: INFLATION REMAINS TOO HIGH
FED’S BARR: Favors maintaining interest rates at current levels as long as there is confidence that inflation is continuing to moderate.
FED’S BARR: If inflation fails to ease in the near term, the time may come to consider raising interest rates. | 269 |
| 5 | GLOBAL BOND YIELDS SOAR ON INFLATION FEARS
Global bond yields surged as rising oil prices and U.S.-Iran tensions fueled inflation fears and rate-hike expectations.
🇺🇸U.S. 10-year: 4.792%, highest since January 2025
🇯🇵Japan 10-year: above 3%, 30-year high
🇩🇪Germany 10-year: 3.364%, highest since 2011
🇬🇧UK 10-year: 5.254%, highest since 2008
Markets now price a 65% chance of a Fed rate hike in September, with Brent crude above $92. | 280 |
| 6 | FED RATE HIKE ODDS SURGE
Markets are now pricing in a 54% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, compared with a 45% chance of no change, following Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish remarks.
Attention now turns to Friday’s August jobs report, which could play a crucial role in shaping September’s policy expectations.
According to Bank of America (BofA), weaker-than-expected employment data could alter the current outlook. Otherwise, the prospect of a September rate hike appears increasingly likely. | 308 |
| 7 | Gold Market Update
Gold at 4,425
As I clearly mentioned during today’s live stream, as long as gold remained below the 4460–65 resistance zone, further downside was expected. As anticipated, gold has declined, and I hope everyone is currently enjoying a good profit.
Our view remains unchanged.
As long as gold fails to reclaim 4450 and, more importantly, the 4460–65 resistance zone, the market is likely to remain under pressure.
Key Support Levels at 4395–4400 and 4380
A sustained break below 4380 could trigger further selling pressure toward 4360, followed by 4340.
Strategy remains unchanged,
Sell at resistance and manage risk with discipline. | 301 |
| 8 | TRUMP VOWS TO “HIT IRAN HARD” AFTER ATTACK ON U.S. FORCES
President Donald Trump vowed retaliation after Iran fired at least eight ballistic missiles at U.S. forces in Jordan, reportedly causing no significant damage.
“We’re going to hit them hard. There will be a response,” Trump said.
The attack followed U.S. strikes on IRGC launchers on Iran’s Larak Island.
Trump also said sanctions are “kicking in really strongly,” while suggesting Tehran is eager for talks but questioning whether a deal can be reached. | 262 |
| 9 | SPOT GOLD EXTENDS LOSSES, FALLING NEARLY 2% TO $4,505. | 368 |
| 10 | 📊 WARSH SPEECH PUTS SEPTEMBER RATE HIKE BACK IN PLAY
Markets sharply repriced expectations for the September Fed decision following Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech.
The probability of the Fed holding rates fell from 71% before the speech to 50%, while expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike surged from 30% to 49%.
Meanwhile, the probability of a rate cut remains virtually off the table at just 1%.
Warsh’s strong focus on inflation has transformed the September policy decision into a near coin flip, with markets now closely watching incoming economic data and further Fed guidance. | 366 |
| 11 | 🚨 WARSH: HAWKISH SIGNALS ON INFLATION
• Inflation data do not indicate a meaningful improvement in the underlying trend.
• The Fed’s 2% PCE inflation target remains firm and non-negotiable.
• More work is needed if inflation is not moving toward 2% at a sufficiently rapid pace.
Market Impact: Warsh’s remarks reinforce a cautious stance on monetary easing and could keep pressure on expectations for near-term Fed rate cuts. This may remain supportive of the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, while potentially limiting upside in gold. | 365 |
| 12 | WARSH PUTS INFLATION FRONT AND CENTER
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh struck a hawkish tone, saying the Fed’s priority must remain price stability.
Warsh said summer inflation data improved, but underlying trends have not meaningfully changed. The Fed must be confident inflation is returning to target—or “we have work to do.”
He reaffirmed the 2% PCE inflation target as “firm and fixed.”
Meanwhile, the economy remains resilient: consumer spending is healthy, labor markets are stable and business investment is rising rapidly.
Warsh also said financial conditions are difficult to describe as restrictive, with credit markets showing few signs of policy restraint.
At the July meeting, a “good majority” favored waiting before changing rates. | 348 |
| 13 | WARSH TAKES CENTER STAGE AT JACKSON HOLE
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh takes center stage at Jackson Hole today as he delivers his first keynote speech, with markets closely watching for greater clarity following July’s confusing policy signals.
With expectations for September’s monetary policy decision still finely balanced, investors will be particularly attentive to any indication regarding the future path of interest rates.
However, analysts expect Warsh may focus more broadly on the Fed’s ongoing task forces, the economic impact of artificial intelligence, and the central bank’s communication strategy rather than provide a direct signal on September’s rate decision.
Markets will also be looking for reassurance that the Federal Reserve remains firmly committed to its 2% inflation target.
Any shift in tone or unexpected guidance from Warsh could trigger significant volatility across gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasury yields. | 354 |
| 14 | TRADERS BET ON A BIGGER DOLLAR REBOUND
Currency traders are increasing bullish dollar hedges ahead of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech Friday.
About 57% of dollar options flows this week favor further gains, up from 43% last week.
Markets are preparing for a potentially hawkish message, while relatively low volatility leaves room for a sharp FX move if Warsh surprises. | 347 |
| 15 | President Trump says the US Navy has cleared all mines in international waters in the Strait of Hormuz.
US oil prices extend losses toward $82/barrel. | 436 |
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| 17 | JACKSON HOLE COULD TRIGGER MAJOR MARKET MOVES
According to Julius Baer, this year’s Jackson Hole Symposium could have an unusually significant impact on global markets.
Investors are closely focused on Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s speech, particularly after the Fed’s July communication offered limited clarity on the future path of monetary policy.
Historically, Jackson Hole has rarely triggered major market moves—but when it does, the impact can be substantial and long-lasting.
The symposium comes at a particularly sensitive time for bond markets, following last week’s unexpected announcement of a U.S. Treasury buyback program. | 450 |
| 18 | BREAKING: The US Treasury announces it will double the size long-term US government debt buybacks following the rapid surge in US Treasury yields.
Repurchases of $2 billion will now be increased to "at least" $4 billion, the US Treasury said.
The move is intended to provide "liquidity support" for bonds maturing in 10 to 30 years as total US debt nears $40 trillion.
There is the intervention we have been calling for. | 630 |
| 19 | IRAN FLOATS PROLONGING WAR UNTIL TRUMP LEAVES
Iran could prolong its war with the U.S. until Trump leaves office to impose costs and strengthen deterrence, senior IRGC adviser Mohammad Reza Naqdi said.
Naqdi claimed Iran is winning, while accusing Washington of lacking a clear strategy.
He said the longer the conflict continues, the more Iran learns about fighting U.S. forces.
Naqdi also claimed Iran is producing missiles faster than it is using them. | 832 |
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