QCP Broadcast
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کانال QCP Broadcast (@qcpbroadcast) در بخش زبانی انگلیسی بازیگری فعال است. در حال حاضر جامعه شامل 13 425 مشترک است و جایگاه 7 628 را در دسته رمزارزها و رتبه 2 771 را در منطقه ماليزيا دارد.
📊 شاخص‌های مخاطب و پویایی
از زمان ایجاد در невідомо، پروژه رشد سریعی داشته و 13 425 مشترک جذب کرده است.
بر اساس آخرین داده‌ها در تاریخ 14 اکتبر, 2026، کانال فعالیت پایداری دارد. در ۳۰ روز گذشته تغییر اعضا برابر -67 و در ۲۴ ساعت گذشته برابر -1 بوده و همچنان دسترسی گسترده‌ای حفظ شده است.
- وضعیت تأیید: تأیید نشده
- نرخ تعامل (ER): میانگین تعامل مخاطب 17.37% است و در ۲۴ ساعت نخست پس از انتشار، محتوا معمولاً 8.90% واکنش نسبت به کل مشترکان کسب می‌کند.
- دسترسی پست‌ها: هر پست به طور میانگین 2 334 بازدید دریافت می‌کند. در اولین روز معمولاً 1 196 بازدید جمع‌آوری می‌شود.
- واکنش‌ها و تعامل: مخاطبان به‌طور فعال حمایت می‌کنند؛ میانگین واکنش به هر پست 6 است.
- علایق موضوعی: محتوا بر موضوعات کلیدی مانند asia, tariff, u.s, vol, fed تمرکز دارد.
📝 توضیح و سیاست محتوایی
نویسنده این فضا را محل بیان دیدگاه‌های شخصی توصیف می‌کند:
“https://linktr.ee/qcpgroup”
به لطف به‌روزرسانی‌های پرتکرار (آخرین داده در تاریخ 15 اکتبر, 2026)، کانال همواره به‌روز و دارای دسترسی بالاست. تحلیل‌ها نشان می‌دهد مخاطبان به‌طور فعال با محتوا تعامل دارند و آن را به نقطه اثرگذاری مهم در دسته رمزارزها تبدیل کرده‌اند.
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پست‌های کانال
QCP Macro Themes, 15 October 2026
Escalation widened as Houthis struck Riyadh airport (Oct 10–11), with Iran reviewing the US response via Qatar. Hormuz collapsed to 1 crossing (avg 26) and the SPR is down 30.5% YoY to 283.0m barrels—critical supply squeeze.
Democrats hold 62–63% odds to sweep Congress 3 November; the Senate is the swing race. A full sweep raises gridlock risk for Trump. France's fiscal credibility under pressure: OAT-Bund 152bp, debt 119% GDP, growth 0.4%.
Credit repricing accelerating. Oracle CDS 251.9bps, nearly 2x AVGO (132.6bps). OpenAI's ARR gap ($50B vs $70B target) signals tensions as Q3 earnings peak 26 Oct. BTC momentum fading as STRC buybacks ($192.4m) outweighed Strategy's purchase. Cash fell to $640.5m; ETF flows negative (−$585.9m).
September CPI beat: 3.7% headline (vs 3.6%) and 2.6% core (vs 2.5%), energy up 5.2% MoM. Inflation firm despite Fed hiking.
Does the beat force further hiking—or does credit stress prompt policy recalibration?
| 2 | QCP Market Colour, 12 October 2026
A year on from crypto's largest single-day liquidation, 10/10, BTC looks to be on firmer footing. The feared repeat washout hasn't materialised, with price holding up despite jitters over sizeable US government BTC transfers and reports of a Ledger hack over the weekend.
BTC keeps failing at $87k but has held its range, with support around $80k. Implied vol is firm and risk reversals show a less pronounced premium for puts than usual: less defensive positioning, but a breakout is still priced. A clean move above $87k would bring $94k into focus. October has historically been a strong month for crypto (last year the notable exception), and options pricing hints at a return to the pattern.
The catalysts land this week: CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday and Warsh at the IMF-World Bank Annual Meetings on Friday, where any echo of his hawkish Jackson Hole messaging could weigh on risk. Markets price roughly a 17% chance of an October hike, so a hold is the base case, but this week's data could test it. Targeted upside interest shows up in a sizeable long 30 Oct $90k/$95k/$100k Call Butterfly, the largest end-October open interest concentration.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 1 712 |
| 3 | QCP Macro Themes, 8 October 2026
US-Iran talks deadlocked on Hormuz sequencing. Washington shifted to pressure—pulling Iran's delegation, adding sanctions—while leaving Qatar's channel open. Hormuz crossings at 3 vessels versus 26 average; SPR down 28% since May.
Energy freight surging. West Africa-China crude freight tripled to $27.22/bbl versus $7.37 YTD avg (+319%). Crude exports normalised but refined-product flows lag 33%. Tighter tanker availability points to structurally higher delivered costs.
Sterling weakness is a dollar story. GBP/USD fell to 1.3193 but EUR/GBP holding 0.8481—euro headwinds cushioning sterling. Oracle CDS at 247bps, nearly 2x peers. AI-capex repricing widening.
JPY positioning shifted: leveraged funds net short, asset managers building longs. Carry cushion halved to 2.63pp. Anthropic IPO slipped to mid-Nov (~$2tn). Strategy slowed BTC buying; STRC buybacks prioritised. ETF flows cool. Clarity Act stalled.
Does geopolitical premium fuel unwinds or is positioning fragile enough? | 2 139 |
| 4 | QCP Market Colour, 5 October 2026
The macro narrative flipped completely in three weeks: from "hike in October" to "October hike priced out, Fed on hold." September payrolls collapsed to just 29k versus 84k expected; unemployment rose to 4.2%; wage growth slowed to 3.0% year-on-year (lowest since May 2021). The three-month payroll average dropped to 50.7k—roughly one-third the pace a year ago. This dovish labour print supports an October Fed pause, yet the 10-year Treasury sits stubbornly at 5.25% as supply and term-premium dynamics override growth signals. October hike odds fell to 22%.
Bitcoin recovered to $86,700 after Friday's $87,100 rejection, suggesting dip demand remains present. Weekend liquidations were light at $62.7m with shorts accounting for 68%. Acceptance above $87,200 remains necessary to confirm the next leg. Ethereum holds $2,725 within the $2,650-$2,800 range; the setup remains cautiously constructive.
FOMC Minutes Wednesday is the major catalyst—markets parsing whether the hawkish dissents reflected conviction or compromise. TOKEN2049 Singapore Thu-Fri may introduce volatility. Watch October 14 CPI as the first test of disinflation reassertance.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 432 |
| 5 |  The QCP Digital Assets Outlook: Q4 report is out.
What looks like calm is really a stalemate. Rates, CLARITY delays and Middle East risk weigh on price, while ETF demand and risk appetite keep absorbing the pressure. All it takes is one side to tire for price to break out.
Our Q4 read: growth slowing without contracting, inflation re-accelerated, Fed tightening again not pausing. BTC base case is range-bound $80K–$90K.
Watch four things: Fed pricing, oil escalation risk, ETF/stablecoin liquidity breadth, and AI capex rotation.
Get the full outlook here: https://campaign.qcpgroup.com/q4-digital-market-report | 2 221 |
| 6 | QCP Market Colour, 2 October 2026
Bitcoin broke its range to $86,913—highest since September 23—up 14.6% from the September 15 low. But the rally's backdrop is diverging: the 30-year Treasury hit 5.62%, the 10-year briefly 5.29%, and gold had its worst month of the year. Real rates rose 44bp through September while breakevens barely moved. This wasn't an inflation shock—stronger growth expectations, heavy Treasury supply, weak auctions, and price-sensitive buyers forced market clearing at higher real yields.
Gold obeyed the real-rate signal and fell 8.5%. Bitcoin rallied 12%. This divergence suggests a concentrated flow trade in an asset with a new regulatory catalyst and favorable technicals. Spot ETFs took $3.5bn in August and $2.6bn in September after a brutal first half. The SEC's September 17 exemption provided the first genuine regulatory catalyst since the CLARITY Act failed. But market-structure legislation is now deferred to 2027—support is executive, not legislative.
Options positioning shows clients rolling October $90,000 calls into November, the month containing midterms, Treasury refunding, and the December Fed meeting. The market is positioning to own the post-election period. Tonight's payroll report is the critical test. Support at $82,500 held three times this week; resistance at $87,400 gates $90,000.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 227 |
| 7 | QCP Macro Themes, 1 October 2026
Direct US-Iran contact confirmed but offers rejected. Iran pitched 7-day plan but disagreement over urgency remains. Hormuz at 2 crossings versus 32 average; Bab El Mandeb disrupted. SPR thinnest since 1982.
US activity re-accelerating. PMI composite hit 58.4 (strongest since Jul 2021). Input costs near 4-year low. Stronger growth plus sticky costs driving duration demand. 10Y above 5%, up 53bps.
Trump-Xi summit extended trade truce to Jan 10 (shorter than 3–6 months floated). Iran/N.Korea dialogue advanced, no agreements. US-China risk moderated.
AI capex repricing credit: Oracle free cash flow −$5.4bn despite 30% revenue growth; capex ~$420bn in 2027. Spreads widening. OpenAI shelved finished model (pacing confirmed). SEC approved tokenized stock exemption. Strategy resumed BTC accumulation ($142.7m).
Does duration demand ease, or does repricing fuel further term premium? | 2 203 |
| 8 | QCP Market Colour, 28 September 2026
Global markets opened Monday under multi-asset pressure as investors reduced risk exposure across all liquid asset classes. The Nasdaq-100 fell from 744.45 to 737.76 in premarket, gold declined from $4,260 to $4,147, and Bitcoin dropped from $84,500 to $82,800—simultaneously. The US Dollar Index also traded lower, defying typical flight-to-safety flows. This pattern reflects broad-based deleveraging rather than safe-haven repositioning.
The primary driver was geopolitical: the US rejected proposed ceasefire conditions for the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, reigniting concerns about potential prolonged energy supply disruption and triggering sharp increases in Brent crude prices. Elevated energy costs carry direct implications for consumer purchasing power during this economically sensitive period.
This week carries a heavily concentrated US macroeconomic calendar. The PCE price index and Nonfarm Payrolls report are critical releases following recent Fed rate increases. Markets remain hypersensitive to data that could inform expectations on additional monetary policy adjustments. In crypto options, front-end implied volatilities remain elevated as dealers price downside protection. Spot Bitcoin ETF flows show hesitation amid the broader liquidation. Bitcoin's recent technical strength faces pressure from the convergence of geopolitical uncertainty and macroeconomic data risk. Critical support levels are in focus.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 606 |
| 9 | QCP Macro Themes - 10 September 2026
Fed's September hike locked in the hiking cycle. Six of seven voting speakers hawkish; Kashkari, Musalem, Goolsbee all emphasize inflation is broad and demand-side pressure is real. Policy rate now 3.75%-4.00%. Hike camp firm; restrictive bias confirmed.
BOJ followed suit with rate hike from 1.00%, next hike priced for Q4. JPY flips to net long in leveraged funds; GBP longs unwinding. Dollar support reduced as central banks tighten in unison.
Hormuz tanker crossings at zero versus 29-vessel average. Geopolitical tension spiked then collapsed; Trump signalled openness to Iran talks. Brent pulled back to ~$101/bbl. Hormuz remains a chokepoint with Bab El Mandeb also at multi-decade lows.
Credit repricing sharply: Oracle CDS above 100bps. BTC ETF flows near 99th percentile, Q4 seasonality bid. Strategy resumed accumulation (950 BTC for $75.7m). SEC approved tokenized stock exemption; Clarity Act stalled.
With Fed and BOJ hiking lockstep, is macro regime fully tightened? | 2 772 |
| 10 | QCP Market Colour, 21 September 2026
Bitcoin is arming up for a breakout. It closed the week above its 50-week moving average, up 29% over the past 35 days, with the tide turning as the traditional war trade loses its grip despite continued U.S.-Iran tensions.
The legislative backdrop is doing some of the work. The American Reserve Modernization Act (ARMA) has cleared the House Financial Services Committee, one step from a full House vote, and would establish a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve if passed. Timing is now the variable: prediction markets price roughly a 90% chance of Democrats taking the House in the midterms, and with this Congress ending on 2 January 2027, a floor vote before then would materially improve ARMA's near-term path.
The options tape is loaded. Front-end vols remain elevated into a seasonally strong month, and around 43% of BTC open interest sits in Friday's quarterly expiry, with the 85k/90k/95k/100k strikes from August's large 25SEP26 Call Condor among the biggest concentrations. A break of the 83k resistance level could open the door toward 90k and bring those strikes into play.
The driver is shifting from the war trade to dollar liquidity and risk appetite, with front-end funding conditions mattering more for crypto. It's showing up in flows: spot ETFs have flipped from outflows back into inflows, with more than $590m of net inflows across Thursday and Friday alone.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 789 |
| 11 | QCP Market Colour, 18 September 2026
Bitcoin took two direct hits inside 48 hours and came out bid. The CLARITY Act's 49–50 cloture failure on Tuesday pushed BTC to a monthly low near $75,900, the Fed hiked the following afternoon, and spot recovered to $77,000 before settling around $76,500.
The flows are the more interesting part. Spot ETFs bled $450m on the 15th and $296m on the 16th, IBIT shedding $144m of it. Then on the 17th the tape turned: $159m of net inflows with IBIT taking $184m. The outflows bottomed on the hike itself, and the day after it the largest fund was a buyer.
The Fed's 25bp was priced above 90%, so Warsh was the story. Inflation remains "too high", conditions are not "restrictive", and he framed the move as "removing a dose of policy accommodation" before declining to give any forward guidance. The committee also raised its longer-run neutral estimate to 3.25% from 3.06%, which matters more for ten-year fair value than the near-term path. Yields bear-flattened Wednesday then fell across the curve Thursday, the long end rallying on the resolve. A hike today may mean fewer hikes tomorrow.
Crude retreated three sessions on Saudi restart guidance, though independent analysts see weeks rather than days and WTI is still up 18% on the month. This is a risk premium unwinding, not supply returning. The BOJ hiked to 1.25% and the yen weakened anyway. And the SEC used exemptive authority to clear the path for tokenized securities venues, five years of relief in place of the legislation Congress could not pass.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 637 |
| 12 | QCP Market Colour, 14 September 2026
August CPI showed 0.4% headline month-on-month and 0.3% core month-on-month, above the 0.2% consensus. Bitcoin fell to $76,700 on the release before recovering to $77,600, suggesting markets have largely absorbed the 25 basis point hike scenario. The real question is how the Fed frames the move and what it signals about future tightening.
Institutional flows diverged: Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows over the holiday week, though Friday's redemptions slowed significantly. Ethereum ETFs attracted inflows including $216.4 million Friday, pointing to selective demand despite softer conditions. Volatility remains subdued with the curve upward-sloping and positioning hedged ahead of the decision.
This week's FOMC meeting is critical. The question is whether the Committee frames this hike as insurance against inflation or signals a longer tightening cycle. Restrained guidance and stable long-end yields support crypto; higher rate projections tighten conditions across assets. Oil above $107 following a Saudi pipeline disruption adds pressure—prolonged energy prices could keep the Fed restrictive even as growth slows. Bitcoin faces resistance at $80–82k with support at $75–76k. The technical setup is reasonable; conviction depends on Wednesday's Fed guidance.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 771 |
| 13 | QCP Market Colour, 11 September 2026
Bitcoin has retraced from $82,000 highs to trade near $77,000, giving back the entire rally as long-dated Treasury yields have risen sharply. Treasury Secretary Bessent's escalating intervention efforts have failed to stem the move. After tripling Wednesday's buyback operation to $6 billion, Thursday's auction took only $5.19 billion on offer—traders read it as Treasury stepping back. The 10-year cleared at 4.83%, the highest since 2007, while the 30-year broke through 5.3%.
The composition of the yield move is the worst for Bitcoin: a 5% risk-free rate driven by policy tightening, not growth. It undercuts the Treasury liquidity narrative that carried BTC from $63,000 to $82,000. Institutional flows have turned sharply, with spot Bitcoin ETFs recording three straight days of outflows—the first sustained redemption since August's $3.8 billion streak.
Tonight's CPI at 8:30pm SGT is binary: Fed Governor Waller said his vote hinges on this print. Consensus expects 0.2% core. Bitcoin's critical support sits at $76,300–$76,500, tested repeatedly this week. One constructive signal: the 50-day just crossed above the 200-day near $70,000–$71,000, the first golden cross of this cycle. Sequencing matters: yield spike hurts first, liquidity helps later.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 696 |
| 14 | QCP Macro Themes - 10 September 2026
Yen rallied 160 to 154 on BOJ normalisation, carry unwinds, softer dollar. Japan's Aug reserves fell $87.8bn—potential yen-purchase funding—alert to intervention risk. Prior support fresh, USDJPY upside faces structural resistance. BOJ shifting from accommodation to normalisation.
PCE's spring spike looks energy-driven. Nondurables contributed 0.85pp of 1.24pp headline jump Feb-May, energy alone 0.89pp. By July, energy eased to 0.48pp. Headline relief real, core PCE sticky at 3.3%, keeping Fed focused on broadening price pressure.
August +162k NFP beat consensus by 109k, June-July revised 55k. Labour resilient despite higher rates; three-month avg 71k >> consensus. Soft-landing trade intact; household financing costs elevated.
Hormuz flows constrained, SPR at historic lows (286.6mb), geopolitical premium locked in.
If labour stays firm and inflation energy-led, does Fed's hold through year-end stick—or does sticky core force policy tightening by Friday? | 2 549 |
| 15 | QCP Market Colour, 7 September 2026
August's employment report delivered a significant upside surprise at 162,000 jobs added versus expectations of 55,000—a sharp rebound from July's revised gain of 21,000. The stronger print eased concerns around labour-market weakness and shifted attention firmly back toward inflation ahead of September's FOMC meeting.
Crypto remained well supported through the week. Bitcoin traded above $82,000 early before pulling back to $79,300, while Ethereum remained around $2,500. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $770 million in net inflows across September 1-4, though the pattern of Monday's outflow followed by Wednesday's sizeable inflow suggests institutional positioning ahead of key data rather than sustained new-capital conviction.
Technical resistance persists: Bitcoin faces headwinds at $80,000-$82,000, while Ethereum encounters selling above $2,500. This reflects caution until the inflation picture clarifies.
This week's focus is unambiguous. Friday's August CPI print is the key test for September policy expectations. A benign print would give the Fed more room to wait; another firm reading would strengthen the case for adjustment. With near-term volatility subdued at 37-38 percent despite approaching catalysts, CPI could provide the catalyst for a directional break.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 681 |
| 16 | QCP Market Colour, 4 September 2026
One week after Jackson Hole, the focus has shifted from Warsh’s message to whether the hawkish repricing can hold.
Warsh made clear that the Fed’s predominant focus remains on prices, but softer labour data and Waller’s comments have since brought the September debate back towards hold versus hike.
At the same time, Treasury’s first expanded long-end buyback begins on 9 September, just as another 3-, 10- and 30-year auction cluster hits the market. That keeps the long end firmly in focus alongside CPI next week.
For crypto, spot demand has returned. BTC has traded between roughly $76,700 and $81,500 this week, while ETF flows rebounded sharply on Thursday after earlier outflows. Leverage also remains contained, suggesting the current constraint is more about spot supply around the highs than an overcrowded long position.
Tonight’s payrolls report is the next test. The key question is whether softer labour data can ease front-end rate expectations without long-end yields remaining elevated.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 586 |
| 17 | QCP Macro Themes - 27 August 2026
Kevin Warsh locked in the Fed's hawkish stance: 2% PCE is fixed, credibility is the mission. With headline PCE at 3.7%, no near-term cut advocates remain visible and forward guidance is deliberately reduced. The hawkish bloc is broader than dissent counts suggest.
Treasury doubled long-end buybacks to $4bn quarterly, but that's just 0.013% of the $31.5tn market—liquidity, not pivot. Heavy long-dated IG issuance adds pressure; tech now 38% of 10Y+ supply.
Physical risk hardened. Only one tanker crossed Hormuz post-strikes; SPR fell to 286.6mb (Nov 1982 low), 13.4mb below the stress zone. Wheat, corn, sugar rallied on supply concerns.
BTC rallied on short covering, not fresh leverage. ETF inflows near 95th percentile provide real spot demand, but MSTR funded accumulation via equity issuance—caution on the leverage story.
With policy guidance scarce and liquidity narrow, is this conviction or fragile positioning? | 2 504 |
| 18 | QCP Market Colour, 28 August 2026
$BTC heads into Jackson Hole around 80k, but tonight’s focus extends beyond whether Fed Chair Warsh sounds relatively hawkish or dovish.
July PCE showed headline inflation at 3.7% YoY and core at 3.3%, leaving inflation above the Fed’s objective. At the same time, July’s 9–3 FOMC vote revealed a meaningful split, with three policymakers preferring a 25bp hike. Markets currently assign around a 35% probability to a September increase.
The backdrop has been complicated further by the long end. Treasury’s decision to increase liquidity-support buybacks initially pushed longer-dated yields lower, highlighting how Treasury-market liquidity can feed through to broader financial conditions.
Meanwhile, risk appetite remains supported by Nvidia’s latest results: revenue reached $96.2bn and Data Center sales rose 117% YoY, reinforcing continued AI infrastructure demand.
Under the surface, BTC’s rally also has a notable composition. Spot ETFs have attracted more than $2.8bn across eight consecutive inflow sessions, while futures open interest has declined in BTC terms and funding has remained relatively contained.
Warsh speaks at 10pm SGT tonight. The key question is how he frames persistent inflation, financial conditions and the rise in longer-term yields.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 3 029 |
| 19 | QCP Macro Themes - 27 August 2026
The Fed’s 9–3 hold marked its first triple-hawkish dissent since September 2016. The minutes and support from two non-voters suggest the hawkish bloc is broader than the tally, with further tightening possible if inflation stalls.
Treasury doubled long-end buybacks from $2bn to $4bn per operation and increased them from two to four per quarter. Yields fell, but each operation represents just 0.013% of the $31.5tn Treasury market.
Physical risks are rising. Only two tankers crossed Hormuz on 25 August, while the SPR has fallen to 289.7mb, below its stress threshold.
In crypto, falling open interest points to short covering, while strong ETF inflows provide genuine spot demand. Strategy raised $2.01bn but bought no BTC for a second week, leaving holdings flat at 840,447.
With liquidity support limited, is this rally becoming structural—or still running on borrowed time? | 2 539 |
| 20 | QCP Market Colour, 24 August 2026
$BTC recorded its strongest week since March 2024, briefly reaching approximately 79.5k after gaining more than 20%.
The move coincided with a sharp shift in rates. After the US 30-year Treasury yield approached 5.3%, its highest since 2007, Treasury announced that long-end liquidity-support buybacks would increase from a maximum of $2bn to at least $4bn per operation from 9 September. Long yields initially fell and the dollar weakened, while BTC and gold moved higher.
Positioning helped accelerate the initial breakout, but spot participation subsequently strengthened. US-listed spot BTC and ETH ETFs attracted around $2.6bn combined last week, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.
Attention now shifts to three different parts of the macro picture: PCE for inflation, Nvidia earnings for the AI investment cycle, and Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote for the monetary-policy framework.
Warsh speaks at 10pm SGT on Friday, while both July PCE and the second estimate of Q2 GDP arrive on Wednesday.
After a week dominated by positioning and Treasury-market developments, will this week's data provide greater clarity on the macro backdrop?
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 649 |
