QCP Broadcast
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📈 Telegram 频道 QCP Broadcast 的分析概览
频道 QCP Broadcast (@qcpbroadcast) 英语 语言赛道中的 是活跃参与者。目前社区聚集了 13 543 名订阅者，在 加密货币 类别中位列第 7 547，并在 马来西亚 地区排名第 2 735 位。
📊 受众指标与增长动态
自 невідомо 创建以来，项目保持高速增长，吸引了 13 543 名订阅者。
根据 04 九月, 2026 的最新数据，频道保持稳定运转。过去 30 天订阅人数变化为 -108，过去 24 小时变化为 -4，整体触达仍然可观。
- 认证状态： 未认证
- 互动率 (ER)： 平均受众互动率为 17.72%。内容发布后 24 小时内通常能获得 8.83% 的反应，占订阅者总量。
- 帖子覆盖： 每篇帖子平均可获得 2 401 次浏览，首日通常累积 1 196 次浏览。
- 互动与反馈： 受众积极参与，单帖平均反应数为 6。
- 主题关注点： 内容集中在 asia, tariff, u.s, vol, fed 等核心主题上。
📝 描述与内容策略
作者将该频道定位为表达主观观点的平台：
“https://linktr.ee/qcpgroup”
凭借高频更新（最新数据采集于 05 九月, 2026），频道始终保持新鲜度与高覆盖。分析显示受众积极互动，使其成为 加密货币 类别中的关键影响点。
13 543
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-424 小时
-297 天
-10830 天
数据加载中...
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频道帖子
QCP Market Colour, 4 September 2026
One week after Jackson Hole, the focus has shifted from Warsh’s message to whether the hawkish repricing can hold.
Warsh made clear that the Fed’s predominant focus remains on prices, but softer labour data and Waller’s comments have since brought the September debate back towards hold versus hike.
At the same time, Treasury’s first expanded long-end buyback begins on 9 September, just as another 3-, 10- and 30-year auction cluster hits the market. That keeps the long end firmly in focus alongside CPI next week.
For crypto, spot demand has returned. BTC has traded between roughly $76,700 and $81,500 this week, while ETF flows rebounded sharply on Thursday after earlier outflows. Leverage also remains contained, suggesting the current constraint is more about spot supply around the highs than an overcrowded long position.
Tonight’s payrolls report is the next test. The key question is whether softer labour data can ease front-end rate expectations without long-end yields remaining elevated.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here.
| 2 | QCP Macro Themes - 27 August 2026
Kevin Warsh locked in the Fed's hawkish stance: 2% PCE is fixed, credibility is the mission. With headline PCE at 3.7%, no near-term cut advocates remain visible and forward guidance is deliberately reduced. The hawkish bloc is broader than dissent counts suggest.
Treasury doubled long-end buybacks to $4bn quarterly, but that's just 0.013% of the $31.5tn market—liquidity, not pivot. Heavy long-dated IG issuance adds pressure; tech now 38% of 10Y+ supply.
Physical risk hardened. Only one tanker crossed Hormuz post-strikes; SPR fell to 286.6mb (Nov 1982 low), 13.4mb below the stress zone. Wheat, corn, sugar rallied on supply concerns.
BTC rallied on short covering, not fresh leverage. ETF inflows near 95th percentile provide real spot demand, but MSTR funded accumulation via equity issuance—caution on the leverage story.
With policy guidance scarce and liquidity narrow, is this conviction or fragile positioning? | 1 502 |
| 3 | QCP Market Colour, 28 August 2026
$BTC heads into Jackson Hole around 80k, but tonight’s focus extends beyond whether Fed Chair Warsh sounds relatively hawkish or dovish.
July PCE showed headline inflation at 3.7% YoY and core at 3.3%, leaving inflation above the Fed’s objective. At the same time, July’s 9–3 FOMC vote revealed a meaningful split, with three policymakers preferring a 25bp hike. Markets currently assign around a 35% probability to a September increase.
The backdrop has been complicated further by the long end. Treasury’s decision to increase liquidity-support buybacks initially pushed longer-dated yields lower, highlighting how Treasury-market liquidity can feed through to broader financial conditions.
Meanwhile, risk appetite remains supported by Nvidia’s latest results: revenue reached $96.2bn and Data Center sales rose 117% YoY, reinforcing continued AI infrastructure demand.
Under the surface, BTC’s rally also has a notable composition. Spot ETFs have attracted more than $2.8bn across eight consecutive inflow sessions, while futures open interest has declined in BTC terms and funding has remained relatively contained.
Warsh speaks at 10pm SGT tonight. The key question is how he frames persistent inflation, financial conditions and the rise in longer-term yields.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 384 |
| 4 | QCP Macro Themes - 27 August 2026
The Fed’s 9–3 hold marked its first triple-hawkish dissent since September 2016. The minutes and support from two non-voters suggest the hawkish bloc is broader than the tally, with further tightening possible if inflation stalls.
Treasury doubled long-end buybacks from $2bn to $4bn per operation and increased them from two to four per quarter. Yields fell, but each operation represents just 0.013% of the $31.5tn Treasury market.
Physical risks are rising. Only two tankers crossed Hormuz on 25 August, while the SPR has fallen to 289.7mb, below its stress threshold.
In crypto, falling open interest points to short covering, while strong ETF inflows provide genuine spot demand. Strategy raised $2.01bn but bought no BTC for a second week, leaving holdings flat at 840,447.
With liquidity support limited, is this rally becoming structural—or still running on borrowed time? | 2 189 |
| 5 | QCP Market Colour, 24 August 2026
$BTC recorded its strongest week since March 2024, briefly reaching approximately 79.5k after gaining more than 20%.
The move coincided with a sharp shift in rates. After the US 30-year Treasury yield approached 5.3%, its highest since 2007, Treasury announced that long-end liquidity-support buybacks would increase from a maximum of $2bn to at least $4bn per operation from 9 September. Long yields initially fell and the dollar weakened, while BTC and gold moved higher.
Positioning helped accelerate the initial breakout, but spot participation subsequently strengthened. US-listed spot BTC and ETH ETFs attracted around $2.6bn combined last week, their strongest weekly inflow since October 2025.
Attention now shifts to three different parts of the macro picture: PCE for inflation, Nvidia earnings for the AI investment cycle, and Fed Chair Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote for the monetary-policy framework.
Warsh speaks at 10pm SGT on Friday, while both July PCE and the second estimate of Q2 GDP arrive on Wednesday.
After a week dominated by positioning and Treasury-market developments, will this week's data provide greater clarity on the macro backdrop?
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 412 |
| 6 | QCP Market Colour, 21 August 2026
Duration is back at the centre of the crypto conversation.
$BTC has moved from roughly 64k to towards 76k in four sessions, with the breakout coinciding with a sharp shift in long-end rates. After the US 30-year Treasury yield reached around 5.33%, its highest since 2007, Treasury announced that long-end liquidity-support buybacks would increase from a maximum of $2bn to at least $4bn per operation from 9 September.
The initial BTC move appears to have been driven largely by short covering. QCP desk data show aggressive perpetual buying running well ahead of spot on Wednesday while open interest remained broadly unchanged. Leverage then rebuilt as price extended on Thursday.
Spot demand followed. US spot BTC ETFs recorded $517m of net inflows on Wednesday, their strongest day since May, while perpetual funding has since moderated from its local highs without a comparable retracement in BTC.
Options have repriced too, with front-end implied volatility rising sharply from the subdued summer regime, even as downside skew remains relatively contained.
The broader question is bigger than the size of the Treasury buybacks. Long-end yields, sovereign issuance and AI-related borrowing are increasingly competing for the same pool of capital, making duration an important part of crypto's macro backdrop.
Next up: July PCE and Jackson Hole.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 405 |
| 7 | QCP Macro Themes - 19 August 2026
China’s crude imports rebounded 22% MoM to 8.41 mb/d in July as Hormuz partially reopened and supply shifted toward Russia and pipelines, but volumes remain 24% below last year. Inventories have also fallen from 1.40bn barrels in December to 1.20bn in July.
The drawdown is accelerating, with stocks down ~940k b/d, including a 41mb drop in June. Hormuz flows also remain fragile after the MOU expiry.
China is also building reserves in gold. The PBOC bought 19.9 tonnes in July—its largest since Oct 2023—lifting holdings to 2,366 tonnes, as gold traded ~30% below its January peak.
Yet options markets price little near-term stress. SPY skew sits at the 86th percentile and QQQ at the 84th, making puts unusually cheap versus calls, even as longer-dated crash protection remains bid.
When near-term protection is this cheap but long-dated insurance is still expensive, is the market calm—or complacent? | 2 320 |
| 8 | QCP Market Colour, 17 August 2026
BTC remains near the lower end of its recent range as softer US growth data compete with persistently elevated energy prices.
Friday's data showed preliminary consumer sentiment falling to 51.0, while July retail sales declined 0.6%, their largest monthly drop in more than a year. Together with softer labour data, that has helped bring the market-implied probability of a September Fed hike down to roughly 30%.
Oil is complicating that picture. Brent remains near $89 as uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz persists, keeping an energy-driven inflation risk in the background.
For crypto, the theme remains resilience without momentum. BTC is holding around 63k and has avoided a larger breakdown, but rallies continue to struggle for sustained follow-through. Options tell a similar story, with one-week implied volatility around 26% against realised volatility closer to 20%.
Attention now turns to Wednesday's FOMC minutes, followed by July PCE and Jackson Hole later this month.
The range remains intact — but can softer growth eventually translate into stronger crypto demand while oil keeps inflation risk alive?
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 515 |
| 9 | QCP Market Colour, 14 August 2026
BTC has moved back towards 63k, returning to the lower end of its recent range despite a softer US inflation backdrop. July CPI eased to 3.4% YoY, core inflation moderated to 2.5%, and PPI was flat on the month — but crypto's response has remained muted.
That leaves the theme from last week largely intact: resilience without momentum. BTC has continued to absorb a weaker labour market, geopolitical uncertainty and changing corporate treasury flows without a sustained breakdown, but supportive macro data have yet to produce lasting follow-through.
Policy is also moving on two tracks. The CLARITY Act has been pushed beyond the August recess, while the SEC and US banking regulators continue to develop frameworks around crypto capital raising and tokenized securities.
Meanwhile, Strategy disclosed another 1,690 BTC sale last week, reinforcing that corporate treasury flows can now move in both directions depending on balance-sheet conditions.
Hormuz remains another source of macro uncertainty, with Brent back around $88 as negotiations continue without a durable reopening of the strait.
For now, BTC remains rangebound rather than broken. The question is whether softer inflation and greater policy clarity can eventually translate into stronger demand, or whether constrained liquidity keeps momentum limited.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 568 |
| 10 | QCP Macro Themes - 12 August 2026
The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed its deepest split since September 2016. Three dissenters argued that persistent inflation and a resilient labour market warranted earlier action, while reduced forward guidance has made each meeting harder to price.
Markets still assign a 57% chance of a September rate cut, even as the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.21%—a 19-year high. The disconnect between policy expectations and long-end yields is keeping the rates outlook unsettled.
That uncertainty extends to FX. After the yen weakened beyond ¥163 per dollar, Japan’s estimated ¥8.45tn intervention pushed USD/JPY back towards ¥157. The US joined a day later with an estimated $5–10bn operation—the first joint US–Japan yen-buying intervention since 1998—reinforcing that policymakers are prepared to act again.
When central banks stop guiding and start intervening, which policy signal should markets trust? | 2 488 |
| 11 | QCP Market Colour, 7 August 2026
BTC has recovered from around 62.5k at the start of the week to trade back near 64k. The move stands out less for its momentum than for what the market has absorbed: Strategy sold 1,638 BTC for approximately $105m, while reported losses from the Coldcard security incident have risen to around $110m. Neither event resulted in a sustained break lower.
Options markets reflect a similar lack of panic. Front-end implied volatility remains near the lower end of its recent range and downside skew has moderated, even as the macro backdrop stays mixed.
US manufacturing strengthened in July, but labour indicators have softened. JOLTS openings fell to 7.36m and ADP payrolls rose by only 44k, putting today's US employment report firmly in focus. Meanwhile, uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz has pushed Brent back above $83.
Japan remains another important liquidity variable following the joint intervention to support the yen. With domestic yields rising and the BOJ still holding around half of outstanding JGBs, Japanese funding conditions remain relevant well beyond the FX market.
For crypto, the distinction remains important: resilience has improved, but momentum remains limited. Macro liquidity, energy markets and the timing of US digital-asset legislation remain the key variables to watch.
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 3 018 |
| 12 | QCP Macro Themes - 5 August 2026
The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75% for a fifth consecutive meeting, but the 9–3 vote revealed its deepest split since September 2016. Three dissenters argued that persistent inflation and a resilient labour market warranted earlier action, while reduced forward guidance has made each meeting harder to price.
Markets are still assigning a 57% chance of a September rate cut, even as the 30-year Treasury yield has climbed to 5.21%—a 19-year high. The disconnect between policy expectations and long-end yields is keeping the rates outlook unsettled.
That uncertainty extends to FX. After the yen weakened beyond ¥163 per dollar, Japan’s estimated ¥8.45tn intervention pushed USD/JPY back towards ¥157. The US joined a day later with an estimated $5–10bn operation—the first joint US–Japan yen-buying intervention since 1998—reinforcing the signal that policymakers are prepared to act again.
When central banks stop guiding and start intervening,which policy signal should markets trust? | 2 604 |
| 13 | QCP Market Colour, 3 August 2026
The US has joined Japan in a rare coordinated effort to support the yen, with the New York Fed purchasing yen on behalf of the US Treasury during Friday’s operation. It was the first coordinated US–Japan FX intervention since 2011 and the first joint operation specifically supporting the yen since 1998.
The timing puts the long end of the Treasury curve firmly in focus. The 30-year yield reached approximately 5.27% on Friday, its highest since 2007, while the 10-year breakeven inflation rate remained near 2.28%. That has kept attention on the role of issuance, investor demand and cross-border flows alongside inflation expectations.
For crypto, a rapid yen appreciation can contribute to the unwinding of yen-funded positions and spill over into broader risk assets. However, a more stable currency could also reduce the need for repeated intervention and remove one potential source of pressure on Treasury-market liquidity.
The episode is not a clear directional signal for digital assets. Instead, it shows why USD/JPY, Japanese funding conditions and long-dated Treasury yields are increasingly relevant to the liquidity environment surrounding BTC and ETH.
Is Treasury action becoming as important as Fed communication in shaping global financial conditions?
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 682 |
| 14 | QCP Market Colour, 31 July 2026
The Fed held rates at 3.50%–3.75%, but three dissents in favour of a hike and Chair Warsh’s move away from explicit forward guidance gave the decision a hawkish tone. Markets initially responded by reassessing the path for rates. US equities sold off following the announcement before rebounding as earnings returned to the foreground, led by a sharp rally in Microsoft. BTC also moved lower around the meeting before stabilising near 64k.
The economic picture remains mixed. Q2 GDP slowed to 1.5% annualised, but consumer spending and underlying domestic demand remained resilient. Core PCE held at 3.3% year on year, keeping the Fed’s focus firmly on inflation.
Asia added another source of volatility. The KOSPI rebounded a record 17.9% on Friday after falling more than 17% earlier in the week, highlighting the growing links between AI equities, regional liquidity and crypto sentiment.
For digital assets, July ends with relative resilience but limited confirmation. The immediate Fed catalyst has passed, yet rates, ETF flows and broader risk conditions remain central to the next move.
Has the market absorbed the Fed’s hawkish signal, or has uncertainty simply shifted further along the calendar?
Read the full QCP Market Colour here. | 2 669 |
| 15 | QCP Macro Themes - 29 July 2026
Early earnings suggest AI infrastructure momentum remains intact. Celestica reported revenue of $4.70bn, up 62% YoY, and lifted its FY26 guidance to $20.5bn, while Seagate and Teradyne pointed to continued strength in storage, testing and compute demand.
The focus now shifts to Microsoft, Meta, Apple and Amazon. Their results need to show that AI spending is translating into cloud growth and end-user monetisation—not simply fuelling another capex cycle. That matters as Nvidia sits at the centre of an increasingly circular ecosystem, while five-year CDS spreads across major AI hyperscalers have climbed sharply.
Broader risk also remains elevated. Renewed US–Iran strikes drove Hormuz traffic back towards a standstill, with just one tanker crossing as of 27 July. Meanwhile, the SPR remains at 311.4mb—its lowest level since March 1983 and just 11.4mb above the 300mb stress zone.
If AI demand remains intact, can monetisation grow quickly enough to support the capital behind it? | 2 644 |
| 16 | QCP Market Colour, 27 July 2026
Markets enter a pivotal week with rates firmly in focus.
US equities ended Friday mixed as weakness in large-cap technology stocks continued, while the 10-year Treasury yield eased after reaching its highest level since January 2025 earlier in the week. Attention now turns to Wednesday’s FOMC meeting, where markets will focus not only on the policy decision, but also on how the Fed assesses the inflation and growth outlook.
Crypto has shown relative strength in July, although spot ETF flows softened at the end of last week. US-listed spot BTC and ETH ETFs recorded combined net outflows of approximately $311 million on 24 July, bringing renewed attention to whether institutional flows remain supportive.
Options markets also reflect a more cautious near-term tone, with renewed demand for downside protection as macro uncertainty builds. Positive funding and elevated ETH volatility suggest positioning remains constructive, but not without hedging.
Will this week’s Fed meeting provide greater clarity, or keep digital assets tied to shifts in rates and broader risk sentiment?
Read the full Market Colour here. | 2 734 |
| 17 | QCP Macro Themes - 23 July 2026
Alphabet beat on cloud and search, and still fell 4% after-hours. The problem was not the quarter but the spending behind it, with 2026 AI capex lifted to $195-205bn reviving margin-durability concerns.
That is the tension running through the tape. TSMC delivered Q2 revenue at the top of guidance and ASML raised its 2026 outlook, so the semis momentum is real. But the market is no longer rewarding the capex that drives it, with Tesla and Intel reporting next.
Broader risk stays pressured by the widening Gulf conflict. Hormuz traffic has collapsed to a near standstill, and the SPR has drawn down to its lowest since 1983, leaving little cushion if disruption forces further releases.
If a beat is not enough, what does the AI trade need to prove next?
Read the full Macro Themes here. | 2 989 |
| 18 | QCP Market Colour, 20 July 2026
Markets are firmly risk-off, with geopolitics adding another layer of pressure. Oil is supported, equities are under strain, and BTC is holding a narrow $63,000 to $65,000 range.
US equities ended the week lower, led by semiconductors as investors grew concerned that hyperscalers could moderate AI infrastructure spending. Capital rotated toward defensives and energy, with Brent above $85 and on course for a weekly gain of more than 10% after the US reimposed a naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz.
Crypto is caught in the same two-sided setup. BTC is consolidating near $64,100 after dipping below $63,000, while flows have turned supportive, with US spot ETFs recording four straight days of inflows after a record $8 billion outflow streak. Volatility stays offered, leaving front-end options inexpensive against the oil tail risk into month-end.
With Brent bid and the Fed leaning hawkish into the 28 to 29 July FOMC, which side of the range breaks first?
Read the full Market Colour here. | 3 065 |
| 19 | QCP Macro Themes - 16 July 2026
The clearest feature of this week's tape is disagreement. In oil, rates, China and crypto funding, the headline points one way while the underlying condition points the other.
Oil is the sharpest example. The peace deal is in crisis and Hormuz traffic has fallen to its lowest since late May, yet underneath that, supply is recovering as Saudi Arabia resets pricing and OPEC+ lifts quotas again.
Rates carry the same tension. Waller has turned explicitly hawkish just as the consumer fades, with revolving credit contracting after running above 10% in April. China splits the same way, with factory prices near a four-year high while retail sales contract.
In crypto, Strategy changed its funding route rather than its stack, raising equity to lift its USD reserve without touching its BTC.
When the headline and the plumbing disagree this widely, which one gets repriced first?
Get this week's Macro Themes here. | 3 122 |
| 20 | QCP Digital Assets Market Outlook | Q3 2026
Four things that actually matter this quarter:
1. The macro backdrop and a Fed that's harder to read
2. AI versus crypto capital rotation
3. Why the corporate treasury bid now comes with conditions attached, and
4. How we're thinking about positioning across BTC, ETH, SOL and options.
Our deepest read of the quarter: the rates backdrop, why $BTC still trades as a high-beta liquidity asset, our full positioning framework, and the base, bull, and bear scenarios ahead.
Get the full outlook here. | 2 810 |
