CRITICAL//Consensus

Links for 2026-04-14 AI 1. The policy surrounding Mythos marks an irreversible power shift https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3MhJELzwpbR42xsJ3/the-policy-surrounding-mythos-marks-an-irreversible-power 2. Before he wrote AI 2027, he predicted the world in 2026. How did he do? https://asteriskmag.substack.com/p/before-he-wrote-ai-2027-he-predicted 3. Does an imperfect verifier break reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR)? Turns out it doesn’t!”https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07666 4. Evidence on white-collar work displacement is beginning to match the theory. https://www.ft.com/content/b69f8599-eaf1-477a-a5a8-60a715e56a04?syn-25a6b1a6=1 [No paywall: https://archive.is/R99j2] 5. LLM-as-a-Verifier: A General-Purpose Verification Framework https://llm-as-a-verifier.notion.site/ 6. Can small quantum computers accelerate AI on massive classical data? Yes! https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.07639 7. QED-Nano: Teaching a Tiny Model to Prove Hard Theorems https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.04898v1 8. WRAP++: Web discoveRy Amplified Pretraining https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.06829 9. Scaling Coding Agents via Atomic Skills https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.05013 10. The Art of Building Verifiers for Computer Use Agents https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.06240 11. Squeeze Evolve: A Unified Framework for Verifier-Free Evolution https://squeeze-evolve.github.io/#blog-squeeze-evolve 12. Memento: Teaching LLMs to Manage Their Own Context https://microsoft.github.io/memento/blogpost/ 13. Neural Computers: Unlike conventional computers, which execute explicit programs, agents, which act over external execution environments, and world models, which learn environment dynamics, NCs aim to make the model itself the running computer. https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.06425 14. Efficient RL Training for LLMs with Experience Replay https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.08706 15. A new agentic application that makes lab-in-the-loop drug discovery accessible to every researcher https://aws.amazon.com/de/blogs/industries/introducing-amazon-bio-discovery/ 16. Gemini Robotics-ER 1.6: Powering real-world robotics tasks through enhanced embodied reasoning https://deepmind.google/blog/gemini-robotics-er-1-6/ 17. Intel, Google Deepen Collaboration to Advance AI Infrastructure https://newsroom.intel.com/data-center/intel-google-deepen-collaboration-to-advance-ai-infrastructure 18. OpenAI’s Chief Scientist on Continual Learning Hype, RL Beyond Code, & Future Alignment Directions https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vK1qEF3a3WM 19. Elorian is building the foundation of visual reasoning https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YlvfNpOMeOY 20. Slightly-Super Persuasion Will Do https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/JcavsPku6RR9hcujz/slightly-super-persuasion-will-do 21. Amazon CEO Jassy defends $200 billion AI spend: “We’re not going to be conservative” https://www.cnbc.com/2026/04/09/amazon-ceo-andy-jassy-ai-spending.html Anthropic 1. “If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4x more productive, I would radically shorten my timelines” https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/Jga7PHMzfZf4fbdyo/if-mythos-actually-made-anthropic-employees-4x-more 2. Claude Mythos #3: Capabilities and Additions https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2ziYGFK7QmbbLgBoP/claude-mythos-3-capabilities-and-additions 3. Claude Mythos: China Reacts https://www.chinatalk.media/p/chinese-reactions-to-claude-mythos 4. Anthropic repeatedly accidentally trained against the CoT https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/K8FxfK9GmJfiAhgcT/anthropic-repeatedly-accidentally-trained-against-the-cot Technology 1. An interactive visualization of technological history from 3 million years ago to today. https://www.historicaltechtree.com/ 2. Chip Can Project Video the Size of a Grain of Sand — MEMS array to steer lasers for quantum computer finds other uses https://spectrum.ieee.org/mems-photonics 3. Scientists Grow Electronics Inside the Brains of Living Mice https://singularityhub.com/2026/04/13/scientists-grow-electronics-inside-the-brains-of-living-mice/

cool website lmk if you find anything that resonates w you https://camelot.wiki/citadel/camelot.wiki/divination/Xenoactualization

Links for 2026-04-06 AI 1. “The man betting everything on superintelligence is telling the world that this thing is coming so fast, and so hard, that capitalism as we know it won't be enough.” https://www.axios.com/2026/04/06/behind-the-curtain-sams-superintelligence-new-deal [no paywall: https://archive.is/ueOsp] 2. Anthropic’s Pause is the Most Expensive Alarm in Corporate History [Fiction] https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/d8bZFuYba4KPtzzRY/anthropic-s-pause-is-the-most-expensive-alarm-in-corporate 3. “In my experience, most people (including today’s straight-liners) start out suspicious of “straight lines on graphs,” but eventually have the intuition beaten into them.” https://joelbkr.substack.com/p/straight-lines-on-graphs 4. Announcing 1-bit Bonsai: The First Commercially Viable 1-bit LLMs https://prismml.com/news/bonsai-8b 5. Introducing Atlas RF Studio: Toward a Foundation Model for Electromagnetics https://www.arenaphysica.com/publications/rf-studio 6. MemFactory: Unified Inference & Training Framework for Agent Memory https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.29493 7. Gemma 4: Google’s new family of open models you can run on your own hardware. https://blog.google/innovation-and-ai/technology/developers-tools/gemma-4/ 8. Sam Altman’s prediction has come through https://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2026/04/sam-altmans-prediction-has-come-through.html 9. Mustafa Suleyman says renegotiating Microsoft’s contract with OpenAI “unlocked [Microsoft’s] ability to pursue superintelligence.” https://www.theverge.com/report/905791/mustafa-suleyman-microsoft-ai-transcription-model 10. The quest for general intelligence is hitting a wall https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xZsuBaQFGEb743RiM/the-quest-for-general-intelligence-is-hitting-a-wall 11. Advice for PhD students in economics about using AI. [PDF] https://economics.mit.edu/sites/default/files/2026-04/IA%20AI%20note_1.pdf 12. Q1 2026 Timelines Update https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/XLLjqMxETva3ABtsK/q1-2026-timelines-update Math 1. A Lean 4 formalization of An Introduction to Algebraic Combinatorics by Darij Grinberg, built on Mathlib. https://faabian.github.io/algebraic-combinatorics/targets.html 2. Free math book. “Combinatorics Through Guided Discovery,” by Ken Bogart. https://bogart.openmathbooks.org/ 3. Free math book. Elementary Number Theory: Primes, Congruences, and Secrets https://wstein.org/ent/ Neuro(tech) 1. A biologically plausible stochastic recurrent neural network that performs Bayesian inference, predictive-coding, continual learning, spontaneous memory replay, and progressively orthogonalizes its own representations? Emerging from first principles? https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0925231226008696 2. The Practical Guide to Superbabies https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PPLHfFhNWMuWCnaTt/the-practical-guide-to-superbabies-3 3. An eye prosthesis 20 years in the making restores sight in patients with a common age-related eye disease. https://stanfordmag.org/contents/vision-quest 4. A single dose of a new cancer drug made a brain tumor almost disappear – in just five days. [PDF] https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMoa2314390 4. A shortage of synapses in schizophrenia? https://www.mpg.de/26333328/blood-test-schizophrenia 5. When and Why Did Human Brains Decrease in Size? A New Change-Point Analysis and Insights From Brain Evolution in Ants https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/ecology-and-evolution/articles/10.3389/fevo.2021.742639/full Miscellaneous 1. New holographic data storage approach packs more data into the same space https://www.optica.org/about/newsroom/news_releases/2026/new_holographic_data_storage_approach_packs_more_data_into_the_same_space/ 2. The upper bounds of humanity’s potential future https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/GLD5AiiQJqFbKX9vo/nick-bostrom-how-big-is-the-cosmic-endowment 3. More, and More Extensive, Supply Chain Attacks https://www.jefftk.com/p/more-and-more-extensive-supply-chain-attacks

Links for 2026-03-31 [Part 2] Quantum and Crypto 1. Google Quantum AI’s new whitepaper argues that quantum attacks on the elliptic-curve cryptography used by Bitcoin and Ethereum may require far fewer resources than many people assumed. For secp256k1, the authors report Shor-algorithm circuits using either about 1,200 logical qubits and 90 million Toffoli gates or about 1,450 logical qubits and 70 million Toffoli gates, and they estimate that under favorable superconducting-hardware assumptions these attacks could run in minutes with fewer than half a million physical qubits. The most novel part is their disclosure method: instead of publishing the full attack optimizations, they provide a zero-knowledge proof showing that they really do possess a circuit of the claimed size for the key elliptic-curve point-addition bottleneck, allowing outsiders to verify the resource estimate without handing would-be attackers a full blueprint. For Bitcoin, the paper’s big implication is that sufficiently fast “fast-clock” quantum machines could eventually enable “on-spend” attacks, where a public key exposed during a transaction broadcast is cracked before confirmation, while older exposed keys and dormant coins remain an even bigger long-term target; the authors therefore argue that migration to post-quantum protections should begin urgently. https://quantumai.google/static/site-assets/downloads/cryptocurrency-whitepaper.pdf 2. Oratomic’s paper makes the complementary claim that the physical-hardware cost of cryptographically relevant Shor attacks may also be much lower than standard surface-code estimates suggest, at least for neutral-atom machines with reconfigurable connectivity and high-rate qLDPC-style error correction. The authors say Shor’s algorithm could in principle run with as few as 10,000 atomic qubits, and that an architecture with roughly 26,000 physical qubits might solve ECC-256 discrete logs in around 10 days under a 1 ms stabilizer-cycle assumption, with RSA-2048 taking much longer. The point is not that Bitcoin can be broken tomorrow—this is still a theoretical resource estimate with major engineering hurdles—but that the hardware gap may be shrinking faster than expected if nonlocal neutral-atom architectures and better codes work as hoped. For Bitcoin and similar systems, that strengthens the broader message from the Google paper: even if neutral atoms are too slow for near-real-time mempool attacks, they could still threaten long-exposed public keys and dormant funds, reinforcing the case for post-quantum migration well before such machines actually exist. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.28627 3. Automated near-term quantum algorithm discovery for molecular ground states https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.26359 Physics 1. Causality optional? Testing the “indefinite causal order” superposition https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/03/getting-formal-about-quantum-mechanics-lack-of-causality/ 2. “I Built Feynman’s Reverse Sprinkler To Solve 140 Year Old Mystery” https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G5DzkVI4EQE 3. For decades, the original paper which introduced something called the see-saw mechanism for neutrino mass was overlooked in favour of subsequent papers by more famous physicists. https://blog.inspirehep.net/2013/06/sleeping-beauty/ Psychology & Neuroscience 1. Open Access Book: Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty https://link.springer.com/book/10.1007/978-3-030-05252-2 2. “Slack”—defined as the absence of binding constraints or having free capacity/space—is essential for any system or agent to be effective. https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/nQd64RC5vXyqiFZLD/slack-in-cells-slack-in-brains 3. Thalamic activation of the visual cortex at the single-synapse level https://www.science.org/doi/full/10.1126/science.aec9923 4. A neural algorithm for a fundamental computing problem [published in 2017] https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.aam9868 5. Cerebellum as a kernel machine: A novel perspective on expansion recoding in granule cell layer [published in 2022] https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9815768/

Links for 2026-03-31 [Part 1] AI

The universe is under no obligation to set the clearing price for human labor above 2000 kcal / day.

— Arthur B. 1. New paper for Tinsghua and Shenzhen says, what if AI itself runs the harness, rather than defining it in code? Given a natural language SOP of how an agent should orchestrate subagents, memory, compaction, etc., we can just have an LLM execute that logic! (And AI could design that SOP dynamically and depending on the task too) https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.25723 2. Meta-Harness: End-to-End Optimization of Model Harnesses [PDF] https://yoonholee.com/meta-harness/paper.pdf 3. AIRA_2: Overcoming Bottlenecks in AI Research Agents https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.26499 4. PivotRL: High Accuracy Agentic Post-Training at Low Compute Cost https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.21383 5. Effective Strategies for Asynchronous Software Engineering Agents https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.21489 6. Coding Agents are Effective Long-Context Processors https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.20432 7. PRBench: End-to-end Paper Reproduction in Physics Research — All agents exhibit a zero end-to-end callback success rate. https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.27646 8. AI might actually fix the information environment by putting expert knowledge in everyone’s hands https://www.conspicuouscognition.com/p/how-ai-will-reshape-public-opinion 9. Building Political Superintelligence https://freesystems.substack.com/p/building-political-superintelligence 10. “The next intelligence explosion will not be a single silicon brain, but a complex, combinatorial society specializing and sprawling like a city.” https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.20639 11. AI drones might force governments to become police states to survive. https://www.thenewatlantis.com/publications/a-shakeup-is-coming-for-the-nation-state 12. Mathematical methods and human thought in the age of AI https://terrytao.wordpress.com/2026/03/29/mathematical-methods-and-human-thought-in-the-age-of-ai/ 13. HorizonMath: Measuring AI Progress Toward Mathematical Discovery with Automatic Verification https://arxiv.org/abs/2603.15617 14. Eli Lilly reaches $2.75 billion deal with Insilico to bring AI-developed drugs to the global market https://www.cnbc.com/2026/03/29/eli-lilly-reaches-deal-to-bring-ai-developed-drugs-to-global-market.html 15. Microsoft is introducing multi-model intelligence in Researcher https://techcommunity.microsoft.com/blog/microsoft365copilotblog/introducing-multi-model-intelligence-in-researcher/4506011 16. Memristor demonstrates use in fully analog hardware-based neural network https://techxplore.com/news/2026-03-memristor-fully-analog-hardware-based.html 17. ‘I no longer knew how to work without it’: DeepSeek outage cuts off millions https://www.scmp.com/tech/big-tech/article/3348345/deepseek-outage-leaves-millions-cut-and-sparks-complaints-rivals-gain-ground

Links for 2026-03-18 [Part 2] Neuroscience and Psychology 1. Inside the mind of a top superforecaster This piece profiles Malcolm Murray, a Good Judgment superforecaster, and shows how he structures questions, updates probabilities, and uses base rates to beat intuition. https://goodjudgment.substack.com/p/meet-superforecaster-malcolm-murray 2. Scientists revive activity in frozen mouse brains for the first time https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-026-00756-w [no paywall: https://archive.is/kUHDL] 3. Belgian Startup ReVision Implant Wins FDA Breakthrough Status for Visual BCI https://insidebci.com/news/2026-03-16-revision-implant-secures-fda-breakthrough-device-designation-for-visual-cortical-prosthesis/ 4. Brain Implants Let Paralyzed People Type Nearly as Fast as Smartphone Users https://singularityhub.com/2026/03/17/brain-implants-let-paralyzed-people-type-with-thought-alone-nearly-as-fast-as-smartphone-users/ 5. Three anesthesia drugs all have the same effect in the brain, MIT researchers find https://news.mit.edu/2026/three-anesthesia-drugs-all-have-same-effect-brain-0317 6. Statement by the President of the Brain Preservation Foundation “regarding the misleading EON Systems “fly upload” video” https://x.com/KennethHayworth/status/2032604687212392562 Miscellaneous 1. Rats and mice exposed to cell phone radiation at doses 10 to 100 times stronger than a mobile phone — nine hours a day, for two years — didn’t get more cancer. They lived longer, and they got less disease. That’s the core finding of an independent reanalysis of the raw data from the US National Toxicology Program’s $30 million studies, the most expensive animal radiation experiments ever conducted. https://github.com/zanekoch/airpods-go-brrrrr 2. Game Theory (Open Access textbook with 165 solved exercises) https://arxiv.org/abs/1512.06808 3. The paradox of derivatives and integrals https://statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu/2026/03/14/the-paradox-of-derivatives-and-integrals/