Observer Research Foundation
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Non-partisan, independent analysis on security, strategy, economy, development, energy & global governance.
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کانال Observer Research Foundation (@orftg) در بخش زبانی انگلیسی بازیگری فعال است. در حال حاضر جامعه شامل 17 448 مشترک است و جایگاه 3 208 را در دسته سیاست و رتبه 2 142 را در منطقه الولايات المتحدة الأمريكية دارد.
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بر اساس آخرین داده‌ها در تاریخ 08 اکتبر, 2026، کانال فعالیت پایداری دارد. در ۳۰ روز گذشته تغییر اعضا برابر 42 و در ۲۴ ساعت گذشته برابر 6 بوده و همچنان دسترسی گسترده‌ای حفظ شده است.
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نویسنده این فضا را محل بیان دیدگاه‌های شخصی توصیف می‌کند:
“Non-partisan, independent analysis on security, strategy, economy, development, energy & global governance.”
به لطف به‌روزرسانی‌های پرتکرار (آخرین داده در تاریخ 09 اکتبر, 2026)، کانال همواره به‌روز و دارای دسترسی بالاست. تحلیل‌ها نشان می‌دهد مخاطبان به‌طور فعال با محتوا تعامل دارند و آن را به نقطه اثرگذاری مهم در دسته سیاست تبدیل کرده‌اند.
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آرشیو پست ها
AI has moved from the edge of US-China relations to its centre, with Washington and Beijing seeking to manage shared risks without easing their technology rivalry.
For other countries, the stakes are growing as the two powers shape the emerging AI order through bilateral bargaining.
This brief examines what the US-China AI dialogue means for India and the Global South, and why countries seeking a say in the AI order must act before its terms are set.
Read Part 4 of the Series: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/ai-technology-and-the-evolving-us-china-relationship
Qatar, Singapore and the UAE turbocharged their courts to catalyse their maritime industries. Can India do the same?
India has deep strengths in maritime law, from English-language common law expertise to world-beating moot court wins. But judicial vacancies stand at 40 percent, and maritime disputes can run for decades.
This brief examines what fast, efficient, technology-led courts could deliver for Indian shipowners in 2027 and beyond: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/time-is-of-the-essence-building-a-future-ready-maritime-legal-ecosystem
India is ageing fast, and women are outliving men. Yet the policy conversation on gender stops at maternal health and girls' education.
Elderly women work in agriculture and informal jobs, spend nearly 20 hours a week on unpaid care, and remain largely invisible to policy. Only 7.8% of those who worked formally receive a pension.
This brief looks at what a universal social pension and a dedicated care programme for older women would need to include: https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-s-elderly-women-need-better-social-security-cover
US tariffs on Chinese goods once approached 145 percent, early in Trump's second term. Today, the two countries have preferential tariff treatment on $30 billion of goods in each direction.
That shift captures Trump's China reset: the coercive instruments built up since his first term have stayed in place, but their purpose has narrowed to transactional economic bargaining rather than comprehensive strategic confrontation.
This brief examines what changed between Trump's first and second terms, and what hasn't: https://www.orfonline.org/research/trump-s-china-reset-from-strategic-competition-to-transactional-coexistence
AI will make intelligence abundant.
To realise its potential, society must reorganise itself around what this makes possible.
The AI absorption frontier for a sector is the point at which it has reorganised itself sufficiently to convert abundant intelligence into productive gains.
This Special Report by Rahul Mathhan explains that AI supremacy, therefore, will depend not on who builds the most advanced models, but on which sectors—and ultimately which nations—can absorb AI.
Read the Report: https://www.orfonline.org/research/the-absorption-frontier
Permanent control over security, and all other needs."" That is what Trump says the new Greenland agreement gives the US, without changing the island's sovereignty.
This brief looks at why Greenland matters strategically, and what the deal means for trust among allies: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/trump-s-greenland-agreement-an-odd-off-ramp
What would it look like for India to shape the rules on nuclear shipping, not just adopt them?
In August 2026, 26 governments, India included, signed a joint statement at the launch of ATLAS, calling it the first step towards revolutionising the civil nuclear maritime industry.
India has the reactor technology and shipbuilding capacity. What it lacks is a licensing pathway: no framework yet exists for who certifies a reactor that's both a nuclear installation and a maritime platform.
This brief examines why floating nuclear power is India's nearer-term opportunity, and why closing that gap now is how India gets a seat at the table: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/nuclear-shipping-s-next-chapter-india-s-chance-to-shape-the-rules
On the US-Mexico corridor alone, more than $6.5 billion in remittances moved through stablecoins in 2024.
Stablecoins are creating a channel for dollar liquidity that exists outside the banking system, and outside the reach of the regulators who used to monitor it. India, among the world's largest stablecoin markets, has no dedicated law governing them.
This brief looks at why India needs a licensing framework rather than an outright ban: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/the-dollar-outside-the-banking-system
The Blue Economy Needs Ports to Lead, Not Just Grow
The global port infrastructure market is set to grow by nearly 70 percent by 2032, with Asia-Pacific capturing almost half of it. But growth alone will not make ports resilient.
Decarbonisation and climate resilience need to be built in from the start, treating nature and local communities as critical infrastructure rather than constraints on expansion.
This brief explores how ports can turn the fuel transition into an opportunity for nature, jobs and long-term competitiveness: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/how-ports-can-catalyse-the-blue-economy
Standards are being written right now, by frontier labs, by a US-led initiative, by a Chinese-led one, by the UN. India has a voice in most of these forums. But a voice without evidence carries little weight.
Without its own AI Safety Institute, India cannot test whether a model is safe for Indian users, in Indian languages, for Indian contexts.
This brief examines why India risks becoming a rule-taker on AI safety, and what it would take to change that: https://www.orfonline.org/research/india-must-urgently-build-its-own-ai-safety-institute
Qatar, Singapore and the UAE turbocharged their courts to catalyse their maritime industries. Can India do the same?
India has deep strengths in maritime law, from English-language common law expertise to world-beating moot court wins. But judicial vacancies stand at 40 percent, and maritime disputes can run for decades.
This brief examines what fast, efficient, technology-led courts could deliver for Indian shipowners in 2027 and beyond: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/time-is-of-the-essence-building-a-future-ready-maritime-legal-ecosystem
What does Russia’s drone experience teach India about modern warfare?
Building drone capability is not just about producing more. Russia’s experience shows that scaling too quickly can create a bottleneck: skilled personnel.
For India’s Integrated Battle Groups, this brief argues that the lesson is that effective drone operations will depend on both the quantity of unmanned systems and the quality and scale of the people operating, integrating and sustaining them: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/india-s-ibgs-why-quality-matters-as-much-as-quantity
For the first time, women make up a majority of the declared candidates for UN Secretary-General. But there is another question at play: is this a glass ceiling being broken or a glass cliff?
The next Secretary-General will inherit an organisation facing geopolitical polarisation, institutional reform and a crisis of confidence in multilateralism.
The “glass cliff” theory suggests that women are more likely to be elevated to leadership when institutions are already facing crisis, making the risks of failure particularly high.
This brief examines the candidates, the politics of the selection process, and what this race could mean for the UN’s future: https://www.orfonline.org/research/glass-ceiling-or-glass-cliff-the-race-for-the-un-s-top-job
For the first time, women make up a majority of the declared candidates for UN Secretary-General. But there is another question at play: is this a glass ceiling being broken or a glass cliff?
The next Secretary-General will inherit an organisation facing geopolitical polarisation, institutional reform and a crisis of confidence in multilateralism.
The “glass cliff” theory suggests that women are more likely to be elevated to leadership when institutions are already facing crisis, making the risks of failure particularly high.
This brief examines the candidates, the politics of the selection process, and what this race could mean for the UN’s future: https://www.orfonline.org/research/glass-ceiling-or-glass-cliff-the-race-for-the-un-s-top-job
For the first time, women make up a majority of the declared candidates for UN Secretary-General. But there is another question at play: is this a glass ceiling being broken or a glass cliff?
The next Secretary-General will inherit an organisation facing geopolitical polarisation, institutional reform and a crisis of confidence in multilateralism.
The “glass cliff” theory suggests that women are more likely to be elevated to leadership when institutions are already facing crisis, making the risks of failure particularly high.
This brief examines the candidates, the politics of the selection process, and what this race could mean for the UN’s future: https://www.orfonline.org/research/glass-ceiling-or-glass-cliff-the-race-for-the-un-s-top-job
The US sanctions law targeting Russia raises the prospect of tariffs on major buyers of Russian crude, including India.
For New Delhi, the implications extend beyond the price of oil. They touch inflation, the rupee, trade, and strategic autonomy.
This brief examines what the pressure on Russian oil means for India’s energy security, why diversification matters, and how New Delhi could navigate growing pressure from Washington while managing its ties with Moscow: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/india-must-not-give-up-russian-oil
For the first time, women make up a majority of the declared candidates for UN Secretary-General. But there is another question at play: is this a glass ceiling being broken or a glass cliff?
The next Secretary-General will inherit an organisation facing geopolitical polarisation, institutional reform and a crisis of confidence in multilateralism.
The “glass cliff” theory suggests that women are more likely to be elevated to leadership when institutions are already facing crisis, making the risks of failure particularly high.
This brief examines the candidates, the politics of the selection process, and what this race could mean for the UN’s future: https://www.orfonline.org/research/glass-ceiling-or-glass-cliff-the-race-for-the-un-s-top-job
BRICS is moving beyond the debate over a common currency. Its next phase could be about building an economic architecture that connects payment systems, finance, digital platforms, technology, manufacturing and trade corridors.
But diversification alone is not enough. If these new systems become too dependent on a single economy, BRICS could replace one form of dependence with another.
The real test for BRICS 3.0 will be whether it can build interoperable systems that expand economic choices for developing countries without creating new dependencies: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/brics-3-0-can-the-grouping-diversify-without-creating-new-dependencies
Washington and Beijing appear willing to engage directly, while buying time to strengthen their respective leverage.
Xi Jinping’s latest visit to Washington shows how sustained leader-level engagement is helping both sides contain economic and strategic tensions without resolving the underlying competition.
For Beijing, sustained engagement also offers an opportunity to strengthen its leverage and shape the future of US-China relations.
Read Part 5 of the Series: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/xi-and-trump-resetting-the-strategic-framework-of-us-china-relations
Washington has not formally changed its longstanding Taiwan policy. Yet its evolving engagement with Beijing is creating growing uncertainty for Taipei.
Xi has made US accommodation on Taiwan the price of better China-US ties. At the same time, Trump’s transactional approach, including his framing of arms sales to Taiwan as a negotiating tool, has made the extent of US support harder to predict.
This has left Taiwan facing greater uncertainty, while the US continues to maintain its longstanding policy.
Read the analysis to understand how the Taiwan question is shaping the evolving US-China relationship: https://www.orfonline.org/expert-speak/far-friends-near-foes-xi-trump-and-the-taiwan-question
