ForeDex

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance : Increased 2. Bybit : Increased 3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖ 4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: Binance and Bybit led today’s CVD increase, while Bitfinex USD and Bitfinex USDT showed no change. View Chart

🚨 ForeDex Founder mignoletkr’s latest article examines the structural fragility behind Strategy’s evolving Bitcoin funding model: 🏦 #Strategy’s earlier funding model was simple: accumulate #Bitcoin, build premium on $MSTR, issue convertible notes against premium, and use capital to buy more BTC. The current structure is more complex with multiple preferred-stock products. If the previous structure was sufficient, why are the new products needed? 🧐 📉 ForeDex data shows institutional holdings of Strategy convertible notes have started to decline, while $STRK holdings are also moving lower rather than expanding. The structure is shifting away from its earlier reliance [...] ⚠️ The main concern is not an imminent Strategy collapse, but structural fragility and market confidence. Continued $BTC weakness could pressure $STRC, raise dividend costs, and increase the chance of $BTC sales for liquidity, possibly triggering a narrative shock around Strategy's Bitcoin-centered funding model. Read More View Chart

🔥 LTH Supply in Profit % is back in a historically sensitive zone. ForeDex Recognized Author G a a h breaks it down: 🔸 LTH Supply in Profit has fallen to the 59% range, a level that has historically appeared during capitulation and cyclical bottom formation periods. 🔸 As more LTH coins move into loss, it suggests coins accumulated in recent months are now maturing into long-term holder status while remaining underwater. 🐋 View Chart

🪄 ForeDex Recognized Author Lukasz Wydra checks whether $BTC pressure is easing through the Coinbase-Binance spot gap: 🧙‍♂️ #Bitcoin’s short-term conditions appear to be calming, with ETF inflows returning after a prolonged absence. "The current Coinbase Premium Gap stands at -$28.02." 🙏 View Chart

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance : Decreased 📉 2. Bybit : No Change ➖ 3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖ 4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: Binance gave back part of its recent CVD recovery, with no change across Bybit, Bitfinex USD, and Bitfinex USDT. View Chart

#Strategy sold a little, but the bigger chart still points to accumulation. ForeDex Recognized Author Pelin Ay explains: ➡️ Strategy’s recent #Bitcoin sale raised questions, but the MSTR Bitcoin Flow chart shows the broader accumulation trend more clearly. Even as #BTC corrected toward the $64K area, #MSTR continued adding Bitcoin aggressively rather than stepping away from its buying strategy. 💎 ➡️ Total holdings line has continued rising in a staircase pattern despite major drawdowns, including the 2022 crash and the current 2026 correction. This suggests the company’s overall strategy remains focused on expanding its $BTC reserves, despite small tactical sales. ✅ In short, Strategy’s reported sale of 39 $BTC does not meaningfully change the larger accumulation path shown in the data. The company continues to treat market weakness as an opportunity to build reserves, reinforcing its position as the largest institutional Bitcoin holder. 🏖 View Chart

🪙 ForeDex Recognized Author The Alt. revisits Bitcoin’s LTH Realized Price in the post-ETF era: 🔸 Historically, #Bitcoin has often reached the Long-Term Holder Realized Price during major bottoming phases, making the current ~$48K level an important benchmark.☑️ 🔸 However, the post-spot ETF market requires a more careful interpretation, as custody accounting movements may not be fully reflected on-chain and could distort the traditional realized price signal. 🔸 Because of this, the effective realized price level may be higher than $48K, and the precision of the old benchmark may be weaker than in previous cycles. 🧐 View Chart

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance : Increased 📈 2. Bybit : No Change ➖ 3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖ 4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: Binance CVD increased again, while Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs showed no change. View Chart

🧸 ForeDex Recognized Author 0xGummyBear checks whether #Bitcoin's range is cooling - or quietly loading the next liquidity test: 🟣 #BTC remains range-bound, briefly dipping toward $60K yesterday before recovering on US-Iran peace-talk headlines. ForeDex Bitcoin Exchange Whale Netflow shows whales still sending $BTC to exchanges, but volume has slowed versus February and early June, while STH SOPR and STH NRPL remain stable. 🟣 ETF flows remain cautious after a fifth straight day of net outflows, though daily outflow narrowed to $22.5M and IBIT returned to net inflows. Coinbase premium is also stable, suggesting sentiment has not turned into panic, while SpaceX IPO headlines are worth watching for sector-level fund rotation. 🟣 On the liquidation map, short-side liquidity has built around $64K–$65K; funding stays positive, so squeeze pressure is not extreme, but that zone carries higher liquidation risk if momentum improves.💧 View Chart

#Bitcoin is bouncing, but ETF flows still look unconvinced. ForeDex Recognized Author OnChainBR breaks it down 🧐: 🌊 Spot Bitcoin ETF Flows remain one of the clearest signals for institutional demand this cycle, and the current read is weak. During the May–June leg down, ETFs have been net sellers almost every day, including another ~$214M outflow yesterday, showing little evidence of institutional absorption. 🌊 The key is to watch flows before price, not price alone. In Feb–March, outflows dried up and green days returned while $BTC was still flat near $70K, before the rally to $83K; until a similar shift appears, bounces are still fighting against persistent ETF selling. View Chart

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance : Increased 📈 2. Bybit : No Change ➖ 3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖ 4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: Binance resumed its CVD recovery after a brief pause, while Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs showed no change. View Chart

👨‍🏫 Part two of the flow series: after market makers, ForeDex Recognized Author Crypto₿ turns to the whale side of #Bitcoin’s bottoming structure: ➡️ Earlier, price lows came with rising whale inflows, supporting the bearish trend. More recently, Figure 1 shows new lows with declining whale inflows, suggesting a bullish divergence as whale-driven selling pressure eases. 🐳 ➡️ Figure 2 shows whale $BTC withdrawals from exchanges, often read as accumulation activity. As price continued making new lows, whale withdrawals strengthened. The accumulation scale on 2026/4/27 also approached the late-bear-market level seen on 2022/9/19, adding to the constructive whale-side signal. 💡 From the whale perspective, selling pressure is easing while accumulation is strengthening, making the whale-side structure constructive for the $BTC bottoming process. 💡 However, in the post-ETF era, whale signals alone may not confirm a full reversal, and stronger institutional buying momentum is still needed. 🙏 View Chart

⚠️ Short-term holders are under pressure, but the capitulation signal is not fully extreme yet. ForeDex Recognized Author Pelin Ay explains: 🔸 Short-term investor behavior shows growing pressure in the current #Bitcoin structure. With STH Realized Price near $74K, $BTC staying below this level would mean many recent buyers are underwater. 🔸 STH SOPR is around 0.98, meaning short-term holders are realizing losses, but the level is not yet extreme compared with deeper correction phases where SOPR fell closer to 0.90 or below. Net Realized Profit/Loss is also negative, showing broader loss realization among short-term holders. 🤯 This type of loss realization can appear near bottoming areas, but confirmation is still needed. If #BTC remains below the STH Realized Price and SOPR stays under 1 for an extended period, loss-driven selling could instead create a deeper pullback. View Chart

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance : No Change ➖ 2. Bybit : No Change ➖ 3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖ 4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: No new directional shift appeared today, as Binance, Bybit, and both Bitfinex pairs all showed no change. View Chart

ForeDex Recognized Author Crypto₿ follows the market-maker signals beyond ETF and DAT demand 🧐: ⭐️ ETF inflows and DAT-related demand are easier to track, but non-ETF/DAT institutional demand goes through OTC channels and traditional crypto market makers. ⭐️ From the Market Maker Inflow perspective, the signal remains relatively negative. MM buying momentum initially followed price highs but later weakened against a new #BTC ATH, creating bearish divergence. [...] ⭐️ Market Maker Netflow gives a more constructive signal. In the latest phase, price made a new low, but MM net buying momentum did not fall to a new low. This creates a bullish divergence and suggests that non-ETF/DAT net buying demand has improved compared to February. ⭐️ The market-maker picture is therefore mixed, with MM inflow and netflow showing different divergences. The ideal setup would be for both MM buying momentum and MM net buying momentum to align with bullish signals at the same time 🧙‍♂️ View Chart

#Bitcoin may be nearing a bottoming zone, but the final signal is still missing. ForeDex Recognized Author キッカ2.0 explains: ➡️ The current structure looks more like Bitcoin moving toward a major bottom than one with a confirmed final low. $BTC is down ~51% from the October ATH, while prior major bottoms formed around 52 weeks after the ATH, pointing to Oct–Nov 2026 as a possible bottoming window. ➡️ ForeDex’s on-chain and flow metrics also show a developing but unconfirmed bottoming process. MVRV has not reached clear bottom territory, SOPR still shows loss realization, NUPL remains near hope/fear, ETF outflows continue, and OTC liquidity remains depleted. 👨‍🏫 The main scenario allows for a rebound before another pullback, with $49K–$52K still the key zone for a potential major bottom. But this cycle has new variables, including ETFs and corporate balance-sheet #BTC, so the cleaner approach is to monitor ETF flows, OTC liquidity, MVRV, and SOPR for stronger bottom confirmation. View Chart

Daily ForeDex CVD by Order Size (Spot) Snapshot 📸 🔸 Whales and Mega Whales Only 🔸 Based on a 1 month period (1M) 1. Binance : Increased 📈 2. Bybit : No Change ➖ 3. Bitfinex (USD) : No Change ➖ 4. Bitfinex (USDT) : No Change ➖ ✅ Summary: CVD activity rotated back to Binance, with Binance increasing while Bybit and both Bitfinex pairs showed no change. View Chart

⚖️ When miners produce at a loss, the market eventually has to rebalance. ForeDex Recognized Author Leo Ruga revisits the Mining Production Cost chart: ⛏️ $BTC is trading around $61K, below the average #Bitcoin mining production cost of $71,130, meaning miners are producing coins at roughly a 14% loss. The operational floor sits near $44,610, so miners are not at immediate shutdown levels, but profitability pressure is clearly building. ⛏️ This is a rare condition in Bitcoin’s history, where miners are underwater on newly produced coins. These periods usually do not last long, because either price recovers toward production cost or hash rate falls until the economics rebalance. Historically, similar conditions have resolved upward within 1–3 months. "Not calling a bottom. Just pointing at the math. 📊" View Chart

🐳 ForeDex Whale Tracker gives traders a clearer read on large Bitcoin flow. 🔸 Our tracker monitors #Bitcoin transactions involving 1,000 $BTC or more and applies AI-assisted classification to reduce noise from known internal wallet transfers. 🔸 Whale Tracker webpage arranges the data into Accumulation, Distribution, and Whale Sentiment, giving users a faster way to understand the broader whale-flow balance. 🟨 Today, while $BTC is trading under pressure, whale flow is not purely distribution-heavy. Accumulation remains larger than distribution, while the overall whale sentiment is still Neutral. ✅ Follow Telegram for alerts, and check the sentiment on our website. 🐳 💬[ Telegram ] 🌐[ Whale Tracker Webpage ]

🥁 The halving rhythm is still there, but post-ETF #Bitcoin may not need the same deep bottom signal. ForeDex Recognized Author Trader Gemini explains: ⏰ Assuming Oct. 6, 2025 was the cycle top, #BTC topped around 534 days after the halving. That timing closely aligns with the pattern seen in previous cycles. In other words, the upside phase of this cycle still rhymed with history, even after ETF approval.✅ The question is whether the downside and bottoming phase will also follow the old cycle pattern. 🔎 This is where we check MVRV; [...] But MVRV has not yet reached the deep undervaluation zone that appeared near previous major bottoms. 🔎 Also, MVRV cycle highs have been getting lower, while MVRV cycle lows have been getting higher. ➡️ So the key question is: does post-ETF Bitcoin still need the old-cycle deep undervaluation zone, or can the market form a bottom at a higher MVRV level this time? "For now, I see this as an observation zone, not a strong buy-dominant zone yet." 👀 View Chart