اکنون در دسترس! پژوهش تلگرام ۲۰۲۵ — مهمترین بینشهای سال 
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پستهای کانال
The CLARITY Act is turning into a battleground between casinos and prediction markets
The American Gaming Association, the Indian Gaming Association and two labor unions sent a letter to the Senate demanding that CLARITY include a ban on Kalshi and Polymarket offering sports event contracts.
The argument is straightforward: over the last 18 months, without voter or legislative approval, prediction markets became the largest gambling expansion in US history.
Kalshi recorded $16.81 billion in monthly volume in May alone. Without a single state license.
The problem for CLARITY: the bill doesn't directly address prediction markets. But the gaming coalition wants to use it as a vehicle to insert a sports betting ban.
Supporters of the bill worry this will delay its passage, while the White House is targeting Trump's signature by July 4.
| 2 |  Warsh broke the Fed's 14-year communication mechanism on his first day in office ❗️
Rates held at 3.50-3.75%, as expected. But the real news wasn't the rate, it was the dot plot, the forecast each committee member submits for where rates go next. Most previously expected a cut.
Now 9 of 18 members project a hike before year-end. A complete reversal in three months.
Forward guidance, when the Fed hints at its next moves so traders can prepare, was dropped entirely. Warsh also refused to submit his own dot in the projection, the first Fed Chair in history to do so.
The post-meeting statement was cut to 114 words, with no hints about the future.
For markets this means one thing: the anchor is gone. Traders used to roughly predict the Fed's next move in advance. Now every decision becomes a surprise.
BTC reacted by dropping below $64,000, with $122M liquidated in four hours. | 10 |
| 3 |  50.5% - that's the probability the Fed raises rates in 2026 ❗️
A year ago that number was close to zero.
Today is the first FOMC meeting under Kevin Warsh as Chair. The rate decision itself is close to a formality, 98.2% odds it stays unchanged.
The real question is the dot plot, the quarterly rate projection from every committee member.
Bank of America warned that at least three committee members are pricing in a rate hike. A year ago nobody expected that.
If the median projection drops the last planned rate cut for 2026, BTC tests $62-63K. If the projection stays soft, the path opens toward $67K.
BTC is at $64,881, volume down 22%. The market is waiting on one chart. | 12 |
| 4 |  259,298 BTC bought in 10 days. At prices between $59,000 and $67,000 ❗️
Accumulation is happening across all wallet categories at once. Retail holders with less than 1 BTC are buying just as aggressively as larger holders with 100-1,000 BTC.
Glassnode's Accumulation Trend Score, which measures buying pressure by wallet size, has held at the maximum reading of 1.0 for more than two weeks.
Contrast with earlier cycles: in January and February this year only whales with 10,000+ BTC were buying while retail sold en masse. This is the first time since late November that accumulation is synchronized across every group.
BTC dropped below $60K earlier this month, the drop that triggered this wave of buying. It's now trading at $66,380. | 15 |
| 5 |  Claude Fable 5 lasted three days in public access ❗️
On June 9 Anthropic released the model publicly. On June 12 at 5:21 PM Eastern the US Department of Commerce sent a letter directly to CEO Dario Amodei: immediately suspend access to Fable 5 and Mythos 5 for all foreign nationals, including Anthropic's own employees without US citizenship.
Anthropic could not filter foreign nationals from US users in real time. The only option was to shut both models down for everyone.
The official reason: national security. The government feared the model was vulnerable to a jailbreak capable of exposing advanced cybersecurity capabilities.
Anthropic is disputing that logic, saying the evidence does not justify such a broad move.
This is the first time in history the US government has retroactively banned a commercially available AI model through export controls. Opus 4.8 and all earlier models remain online. | 17 |
| 6 |  SpaceX debuts on Nasdaq today 🚀
The largest IPO in history: $75 billion raised at $135 per share, $1.78 trillion valuation.
Saudi Aramco's previous record beaten nearly threefold.
Retail orders exceeded $100 billion. Polymarket estimates the IPO will create around 4,000 new millionaires.
Then comes the mechanics: 15 days after listing SpaceX enters the Nasdaq 100. That triggers $22-27 billion in forced buying from index funds. Institutions are positioning for it right now.
A successful debut makes Musk the first trillionaire in history.
There's a crypto line too: SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC on its balance sheet, bought back in 2021. The market reacted early. BTC bounced to $63,600. | 22 |
| 7 |  Claude Fable 5 learned to hack DeFi faster than hackers. The AI found 10,000 vulnerabilities ❗️
Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, the most powerful publicly available AI model. It belongs to the Mythos class, a tier Anthropic previously considered too dangerous for public release.
Inside the restricted Project Glasswing program these models found over 10,000 vulnerabilities, including zero-day exploits in every major operating system and browser.
❗️Crypto has already felt this firsthand. It was Claude that found the critical vulnerability in Zcash Orchard, the one that made Arthur Hayes sell his entire ZEC position.
The context is brutal: 2025 was a record year for hacks with $2.87 billion stolen. Now a tool that finds vulnerabilities faster than humans is available to everyone.
One tool, two roles: the best auditor the industry has ever had and the most capable adversary it has ever faced. The protocols that test their own code first will be the ones that win. | 33 |
| 8 |  Anthropic released Claude Fable 5, the public version of its Mythos model ❗️
A launch Polymarket tracked in real time. But for crypto markets the bigger story is different: the company confidentially filed for an IPO at a valuation of up to $1 trillion.
Anthropic raised $65 billion in funding. OpenAI has also confidentially filed for an IPO.
After SpaceX this Friday, the queue of tech giants heading to public markets keeps growing.
For crypto this cuts both ways. Every major IPO pulls liquidity out of risk assets, SpaceX is already showing that effect.
But the Anthropic IPO news triggered a rally in AI tokens, with Worldcoin leading the gains.
❗️ Mythos demonstrated the ability to autonomously discover zero-day exploits.
❗️ For crypto exchanges, smart contracts and wallets this is a new era. AI that finds vulnerabilities faster than hackers works in both directions. | 27 |
| 9 |  Circle launched cirBTC, a token on Ethereum backed 1:1 by Bitcoin 🪙
Each cirBTC is backed by native BTC held in regulated custody. Reserves are verified in real time through Chainlink Proof of Reserve, no quarterly audits, no trust required.
The market Circle is targeting: $9 billion.
WBTC from BitGo has held 85% since 2019. Coinbase cbBTC grew to $5.9 billion since September 2024.
Circle is now the third major player with one core argument: transparency you can verify yourself right now.
The logic is the same as USDC. Circle built the institutional standard for dollar stablecoins, now applying the same model to Bitcoin on Ethereum. | 20 |
| 10 |  The better Americans are doing - the worse crypto feels 🪙
A paradox with a simple mechanic behind it ❗️
The Federal Reserve controls interest rates. High rates make the dollar and bonds more attractive.
Money flows there. Low rates push investors to look for yield elsewhere: stocks, crypto, risk assets.
Jobs data is the Fed's main signal. A strong labor market means the economy is managing on its own.
The Fed has no reason to cut rates. For crypto that's downward pressure.
Weak data works the other way. Unemployment rises the Fed is more likely to ease policy. Cheap money looks for yield, some of it flows into crypto.
That's why every first Friday of the month crypto traders aren't watching the BTC chart - they're watching the numbers coming out of the US Department of Labor. | 20 |
| 11 |  JPMorgan, Citi, Bank of America and Wells Fargo are building a shared tokenized deposit network 💳
Launch target - first half of 2027.
Operated by The Clearing House, the payments company jointly owned by the banks
Regular deposits get converted into digital tokens and move on blockchain rails around the clock with instant settlement. The money stays inside the regulated banking system - unlike stablecoins.
The direct trigger is the CLARITY Act.
The bill could allow stablecoin issuers to pay interest to holders, competing directly with bank deposits. The banks didn't wait - they're building the alternative.
Two years ago Jamie Dimon called Bitcoin a fraud. Today his bank is building blockchain infrastructure to compete with stablecoins. | 21 |
| 12 |  Halving. Rally. Crash. Repeat. That script ran for ten years❗️
Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley at Consensus 2026 said the script has changed.
The logic is straightforward. Investors, expecting a "bad 2026" based on history, started selling early in 2025.
Those early sales turned 2025 bearish historically a green post-halving year. The cycle was broken by the people trying to predict it.
Now BTC doesn't run on halving mechanics. It runs on the US business cycle, liquidity and institutional flows.
ETFs, corporate treasuries, regulatory maturity the market has reorganized around institutions, not retail speculation.
2026 is "open season." The old patterns don't work. The new ones aren't established yet. | 23 |
| 13 |  Coinbase Ventures bought ENA tokens on the open market - its first investment in Ethena❗️
An unusual move: venture arms typically enter through private rounds at a discount. Here they simply paid market price.
At the same time Coinbase and Ethena announced a partnership - next week the first joint product launches for Coinbase's 100 million users.
Details haven't been disclosed, but the focus is on onchain savings through USDe, Ethena's synthetic dollar with yield.
At the 2025 peak Ethena held $15 billion in TVL. Now $5.3 billion after the broader market decline. Coinbase is already the protocol's primary custodian and wallet provider.
ENA surged 22% on a day the entire market was in the red. Anchorage Digital expanded its institutional partnership with Ethena the same day. | 25 |
| 14 |  $1.67 billion left crypto funds last week the second-largest weekly outflow of 2026❗️
Three consecutive weeks of outflows, $4.21 billion total. AUM dropped to $141 billion, the lowest since early April.
Bitcoin funds shed $1.44 billion a 2026 record for BTC. Ethereum added another $257 million in outflows. Iran-related geopolitics erased all the positive momentum from CLARITY Act progress.
Against that backdrop, only five assets recorded meaningful inflows down from nine the week before.
XRP led with $20.3 million, HYPE pulled in $10.8 million, NEAR added $7.6 million.
Institutions aren't rotating into altcoins broadly. They're picking specific names. The list gets shorter every week. | 19 |
| 15 |  The entire crypto market is in the red ⚡️
BTC closed its worst May since 2021. ETFs recorded outflows for ten consecutive days.
HYPE hit a new all-time high of $70.36. Flipped Dogecoin in market cap and entered the top 10.
The numbers behind it: $1.16 billion in protocol revenue since launch, $1 billion in daily trading volume, 2 million+ user addresses. Nearly all platform fees go toward buybacks and burns.
Arthur Hayes put $100K on HYPE outperforming every top-10 crypto by year-end. Grayscale filed for a HYPE staking ETF. Bitwise BHYP pulled in $60 million since mid-May.
June 6 brings a $684 million token unlock. The next test for the price. | 18 |
| 16 |  Strategy transferred 411.48 BTC to Coinbase Prime - the company's first direct transfer to an exchange in nearly two years 💸
411 BTC is 0.05% of Strategy's total position of 843,738 BTC. Two weeks ago the company bought 24,869 BTC for $2 billion in a single week.
But the market isn't looking at the size. It's looking at the pattern. On the Q1 earnings call Saylor said for the first time that Strategy would "probably sell some Bitcoin to pay a dividend".
❗️Four years of "never sell" ended with one sentence.
Polymarket reacted instantly - odds of Strategy selling BTC before December 31, 2026 jumped to 91%. Before June 30: 74%.
One important detail - a transfer to Coinbase Prime doesn't automatically mean a sale. It could be an OTC trade, collateral arrangement or institutional asset management. | 27 |
| 17 |  Musk is discussing a merger between Tesla and SpaceX 🚀
The combined company would control 30,221 BTC - worth $3.3 billion at current prices.
Tesla holds 11,509 BTC. SpaceX holds 18,712 BTC. Both positions were accumulated between 2021 and 2022 and haven't changed since.
The merged entity would become the fifth-largest corporate Bitcoin holder in the world - behind only Strategy, Twenty One Capital, Metaplanet and Marathon Digital.
Neither Tesla nor SpaceX has officially confirmed merger plans.
But the conversations are happening and Tesla employees say they've been expecting this for a long time. | 28 |
| 18 |  WHO SOLD $1.29B OF BLACKROCK'S BITCOIN ETF? ⚡️
An unknown investor sold $1.29 billion worth of BlackRock's IBIT shares through a dark pool the largest single block trade ever recorded in Bitcoin ETF history.
One important detail: dark pool trades always have both a seller and a buyer. While one institution was exiting, another bought the entire $1.29 billion stake simultaneously. No direct selling pressure hit the open market.
BTC dropped from $77,875 to $76,720 immediately after the trade: minus 1.5% in minutes. Then continued sliding to $75,600.❗️
At the exact moment the block crossed, $1 million flowed into December 2026 IBIT call options at a $45 strike. Someone large is still bullish on Bitcoin through year-end.
Total Bitcoin ETF outflows over the past two weeks: $2.26 billion. Eight consecutive days of outflows. | 27 |
| 19 |  Vitalik Buterin published a post outlining a new direction for the Ethereum Foundation: sell less ETH, shrink the team, and focus only on what wouldn't happen without the EF 💎
The new framework is called CROPS: censorship resistance, openness, privacy and security.
Vitalik was direct: chasing speed and scale at the expense of decentralization is a route to mediocrity.
The post landed amid the deepest talent crisis in the foundation's history - nine senior contributors left the EF in 2026, five in May alone.
ETH has fallen roughly 57% from $5,000 last summer to $2,100 now. Four recovery attempts have failed.
Former EF researcher Dankrad Feist separately proposed a new $1 billion organization to "save Ethereum" with a mandate explicitly tied to ETH's price. | 26 |
| 20 |  The US Department of Commerce signed agreements with nine companies totaling $2 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act to accelerate quantum computing development 🖥
IBM gets $1 billion for a new quantum foundry called Anderon in New York. GlobalFoundries gets $375 million. D-Wave, Rigetti, Quantinuum and Infleqtion get $100 million each.
IBM shares jumped 12% on the announcement. D-Wave +33%. Rigetti +30%. Infleqtion +31%.
Bitcoin, Ethereum, banks and all internet infrastructure rely on cryptography that future quantum systems could eventually crack. The US is betting on controlling that technology first.
Quantum computing has become a geopolitical priority alongside semiconductors and AI - the US, China and Europe are all scaling investments simultaneously. | 24 |
