Macro Trader

• 사담 모든게 잘 될겁니다. 자신을 믿으십시오. I never saw a wild thing sorry for itself. A small bird will drop frozen dead from a bough without ever having felt sorry for itself. - David Herbert Lawrence

Bottom-line: 중국은 바이러스 확산 억제를 위한 정책을 강경하게 유지할 것이라 공식적으로 발표함. China’s top health body said the nation’s zero-tolerance approach remains the overall strategy to fighting Covid-19 after unverified social media posts buoyed hopes the policy would be eased. The National Health Commission convened a meeting hosted by party chief Ma Xiaowei on Wednesday to study the messages delivered during the party congress held last month. Ma said that officials must be committed to Covid Zero and the work of controlling the virus, according to a statement from the commission. “We must resolutely maintain the general approach of ‘preventing imported cases and domestic resurgence’ and the overall strategy of ‘dynamic Covid Zero’,” Ma said in the meeting, according to the statement.

“This is a devil’s bargain,” said Steve Chiavarone, senior portfolio manager at Federated Hermes. “Size of rate hikes will likely fall, but terminal rate is likely higher -- the implication is a greater number of smaller rate hikes. That is not dovish.” 

10월 28일의 이 내용임. 참고하면 됨.

Docent: 연설 중에 우리가 한 가지 기억해야 할 부분이 있는데, 트럼프 대통령 때 중앙은행에 대한 금리인하 압박이 최근 민주당 의원의 압박과 겹쳐 시장 참여자들에게 기대를 줌. 때문에 연설 중에 원자재나 에너지 가격에 영향을 주는 통화정책을 통해 수요와 공급의 불균형에 의한 인플레이션을 해소하겠다고 함. 즉, 민주당 의원이 통화정책의 무용론을 통해 금리인상을 중단하라는 간섭에 대해 분명히 선을 그었음. 중앙은행의 독립성을 침해할 경우 그 역풍은 되려 자신들의 독립성을 강조하기 위해 더 강한 긴축을 하게 될 것이란 분석도 이미 있었음. There’s an imbalance between demand and supply in “many parts of the economy,” Powell says. That’s something the Fed can affect, he says. The background here is some Democratic lawmakers have been flagging that the Fed cannot directly affect commodity or energy prices. Powell is saying that, at a bigger level, there’s an imbalance between supply and demand. And the Fed can affect demand by raising interest rates.

The dotted white lines are the current projections derived from Fed Fund Futures.

수고하셨습니다. 출근 준비할까요? 🤦🏻‍♂️

• no pause in hikes, higher terminal rate. 결론적으로 완화를 기대하지 말 것.

• It is very premature to think about pausing rate hikes. 금리인상을 멈추는 것은 시기상조라 말함.

• We’re 18 months into this episode of inflation, Powell says. The thing the Fed needs to do is use its tools forcefully but thoughtfully. 인플레이션 통제를 관찰하는 기간은 시장 예상보다 훨씬 길다고 말함.

• Powell says there’s no scientific way of assessing that. But, he notes, longer-term inflation expectations signal stability. Shorter-term expectations are “concerning.” 인플레이션에 대한 질문에 그는 단기에 대해서는 불확실하며, 장기적인 인플레이션과 다르게 생각함.

• Powell says there’s no one specific underlying inflation rate gauge the Fed looks at. There are a number of different measures. 인플레이션 평가는 단순한 척도가 없으며, 다양한 기준을 사용할 것이라 함.

• Powell says he doesn’t think the Fed has “overtightened or moved to fast” at this point. 과도하거나 너무 빠른 긴축을 하고 있다 생각하지 않는다 발언함.

• Powell says “it’s been very important” to move “expeditiously.” It has been an “historically fast” pace, which was appropriate. 금리인상을 매우 신속하게 했던 것은 적절했다 생각한다 말함.

• The Q&A is starting now. 묻고 답하기. 🤔

• Powell says “at some point” it will become “appropriate to slow the pace of increases.” But there is “significant uncertainty” around that end-point. 언젠가 긴축의 속도를 늦춰야 하며, 중앙은행의 두 책무가 그렇다. 하지만 시점에 대해서는 상당한 불확실성이 있다 발언함.

• Powell’s comment that “the labor market continues to be out of balance, with demand substantially exceeding the supply of available workers” reinforces the notion that the Fed is looking at both employment and inflation as giving it plenty of reasons to keep tightening. 이는 중앙은행이 지속 긴축해야 할 근거를 제시하고 있다 발언함.