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The Real Politick with Mark Sleboda

Mark Sleboda with a realist and critical, Russian-focused perspective on international affairs, security & geopolitics.

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Repost from Geroman
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This is a great map that Harvard University published a few years ago. It shows the ratio of Bandera vs. Lenin monuments! You can clearly see Ukraine is not a homogeneous country, and people in western Ukraine are the total opposites of people in Donbass. #Russia #Ukraine
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Repost from Slavyangrad
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Ukraine to Import Power Energy imports to Ukraine will rise by 50% due to domestic energy shortages. Russia's attacks on the Ukrainian power grid has crippled much of Ukrainian power generation and supply. Reuter's reports, "Ukraine plans to receive power from Romania, Slovakia and Poland." It remains unclear as to whether this deal has already been negotiated or whether it is still in the planning phase. It's important to note Ukraine's energy infrastructure meets the legal definition of a military objective under Customary International Humanitarian Law (IHL) and such lose their status as civilian objects. This distinction insures that Russia is adhering to international "rule of law." Rule 8 defines military objectives as those which "make an effective contribution to military action and whose partial or total destruction, capture or neutralization, in the circumstances ruling at the time, offers a definite military advantage." Russia has at all times adhered to the international "rule of law" even as Ukraine attacks oil refineries that do not meet this definition and, as such, are civilian objects protected under the same rules. They've also committed assassinations and other terrorist activities which are war crimes. The Biden administration has publicly stated their disapproval but also their respect of Ukraine as a "sovereign nation." t.me/Slavyangrad | Nagasaki Nightmare 👋
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US congressman says facing $500 fine for sharing video of lawmakers waving Ukrainian flags US Congressman Thomas Massie said on Tuesday that he faces a $500 fine for posting a video to social media of US House lawmakers waving Ukrainian flags during a passage vote on a bill with nearly $61 billion in Ukraine-related funding.
“Instead of fining democrats for waving flags, the House Sergeant at Arms just called and said I will be fined $500 if I don’t delete this video post. [US House Speaker] Mike Johnson really wants to memory hole this betrayal of America,” Massie said in a statement via social media platform X.
Users replied to Massie’s post, offering to crowdfund $500 to pay the fine. However, Johnson said in reply that Massie would not be fined, following a conversation with the House Sergeant at Arms. The House of Representatives’ rules prohibit members from recording or broadcasting material on the chamber floor. Johnson also chastised members who waved Ukrainian flags for violating House decorum rules. US Congresswoman Kat Cammack said that she is working on legislation to prohibit the display of foreign flags on the House floor in the future. Subscribe to @SputnikInt
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🚨 Government Media Office: — The Government Media Office has released an update on the key statistics of the genocidal war waged by the "israeli" occupation on Gaza Strip on the 200th day, Tuesday, April 23, 2024: - 200 days of genocidal war. - 3,025 massacres committed by the occupation army. - 41,183 martyrs and missing persons. - 34,183 martyrs reached hospitals. - 14,778 child martyrs. - 30 children martyred due to famine. - 9,752 female martyrs. - 485 medical staff martyrs. - 67 civil defense martyrs. - 140 journalist martyrs. - 7,000 missing persons. - 77,143 injured. - 72% of the victims are children and women. - 17,000 children living without one or both parents. - 11,000 injured needing to travel for surgery. - 10,000 cancer patients facing death and in need of treatment. - 1,090,000 people suffering from infectious diseases due to displacement. - 8,000 cases of viral hepatitis infections due to displacement. - 60,000 pregnant women at risk due to lack of healthcare. - 350,000 chronic patients at risk due to non-entry of medicines. - 5,000 detainees from Gaza Strip during the genocidal war. - 310 healthcare staff detained. - 20 journalists detained with known names. - 2 million displaced in Gaza Strip. - 181 government headquarters destroyed by the occupation. - 103 schools and universities completely destroyed. - 309 schools and universities partially destroyed. - 239 mosques completely destroyed. - 317 mosques partially destroyed. - 3 churches targeted and destroyed by the occupation. - 86,000 housing units completely destroyed. - 294,000 housing units partially destroyed and uninhabitable. - 75,000 tons of explosives dropped on Gaza. - 32 hospitals put out of service. - 53 health centers put out of service. - 160 health institutions targeted. - 126 ambulances targeted by the occupation army. - 206 archaeological and heritage sites destroyed. - $30 billion in preliminary direct losses due to the genocidal war on Gaza Strip. Government Media Office Tuesday, April 23, 2024
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Radio Interview on the Backstory with Rachel Blevins @RachBlevins 23/04/24 Russian Strategy for Looming Offensive - Fluidity, Multiple Plans & Vectors for Attack, Budanov Says Kiev Regime Faces Difficult Times But “Won’t be Armageddon”, New US Aid Package, more... https://open.substack.com/pub/marksleboda/p/russian-strategy-for-looming-offensive?r=mra7c&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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Russia’s Baikal-Amur Mainline to be the future ‘center of global development’ Russia’s Baikal-Amur Mainline railway from Europe to the Pacific will become “the center of global development,” Pavel Feldman, Associate Professor of the Academy of Labor and Social Relations, told Sputnik. Feldman noted that the entire concept of the route stems from Russia’s unique geopolitical location. “The BAM is not just a railway, but the most important factor in ensuring the territorial integrity and national security of the Russian Federation,” said the Deputy Director of the Institute of Strategic Studies and Forecasts of RUDN University. The construction of the BAM marked Russia's pivot to the East and the beginning of a shift towards a multipolar world order. The route also consolidates Russia’s interests in the Far East and the Asia-Pacific region to offset the ambitions of Western countries, Japan, and South Korea in the region. The BAM’s key economic and strategic importance is a proven fact, agreed veteran Russian military expert Ivan Konovalov. Current reality shows that this was an epic, far-sighted, long-term project, he said. From a military-strategic aspect, the BAM was built to offer an alternative to the Trans-Siberian Railway because the latter runs close to Russia’s southern borders.
“Already then, before WWII, there were serious contradictions with Japan... So it was decided to move this mainline deeper into Russian territory. In some places, the BAM is 700 to 1000 kilometers away from the border, which is a serious strategic depth,” he said.
The land route from Europe to Pacific ports shows that Russia’s reorientation to the East “is turning from a futuristic concept into an inevitable scenario for future development,” Pavel Feldman concluded. Subscribe to @SputnikInt
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Was Trump compromised by the US Deep State? Donald Trump, well-known for his anti-establishment rhetoric, appears to have been played by the US elites: he suddenly dropped his opposition to funding the Kiev regime's failing military effort, asserting to the US public that Ukraine's "strength" corresponds to American national interests. 🔺Trump's change of heart occurred during a joint press briefing with Republican Party House Speaker Mike Johnson at Mar-a-Lago on April 12, when the former president suggested funding Ukraine in the form of a loan. On April 17, the speaker unveiled the $60 billion Ukraine aid package, including $9.5 billion for economic aid in "forgivable loans." 🔺The WSJ claims Johnson's visit to Mar-a-Lago was part of a plan by Republican senators Lindsey Graham, Kevin Cramer, and Markwayne Mullin to "expand on the idea of the loan, and make it Trump's idea" in order to pass the Ukraine bill through the Republican-controlled House. 🔺The group of senators held a phone call with Trump telling the former president that arming the Kiev regime's military was indispensable for seizing former Ukrainian resource-rich territories, which have recently joined Russia, thereby allowing Kiev to pay back the money. 🔺During his Mar-a-Lago trip Johnson urged Trump to back Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan as part of a broader fight against Russia, Iran and China. The speaker told Trump that a reinforced Ukraine would be critical for Trump's second term, giving him an upper hand in future peace talks with Russia. 🔺Trump shielded Johnson from his MAGA Republican supporters in Congress after the Ukraine aid vote. Marjorie Taylor Greene opted not to force a vote of no-confidence in the speaker, as it could harm the party and Trump's election odds in November, Axios claimed. 🔺While US politicians are playing the Ukraine card, polls show the majority of Republican voters are against funding Kiev's military effort. Subscribe to @SputnikInt
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Repost from DD Geopolitics
🇳🇴🇷🇺The commander-in-chief of the Norwegian troops said that the Russian army is improving at a faster pace than he expected. Russia has “essentially transitioned to a war economy” and is now capable of producing weapons at a faster rate than in 2023, Eirik Kristoffersen told Breaking Defense. ▪️ “The modernization of the Russian armed forces is now closer than I would have said a year ago, also based on what they are getting from Iran, from North Korea and how they were able to practically avoid sanctions,” the general said. ▪️He warned that, doctrinally, Russia is also learning lessons from the failures of 2022. ▪️“They have learned their lessons and are using their findings. I think it will take them a little while longer... But if you have a very hierarchical system, once you have some lessons learned that you really want to implement, you can do it quickly,” he said. ▪️ “So if they (decide) to move from manned to unmanned systems in one area, when they decide to do it, it will happen quickly,” Christoffersen added. 🔴@DDgeopolitics
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Repost from DD Geopolitics
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🇺🇦👀 Nice shirt 🐻 Our regular feature "No Nazis in Ukraine": no matter how many you show, Ukraine supporters still can't find them 🔴@DDGeopolitics
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Repost from RT News
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Ukraine suspends all consular activities abroad for military-age men Kiev’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs says it will enforce the ban until the increased mobilization law is clarified, with the only exception being to issue identity cards to return to Ukraine. The new legislation introduced last week requires all men aged 18-60 to register at a military recruitment office within 60 days of a summons being delivered, even if the conscript has not seen the document in person. Details about what circumstances would allow men to avoid the draft were reportedly removed from the bill.
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Repost from RT News
❗️Ukrainian military losses since the beginning of the special military operation have amounted to nearly half a million personnel — Sergey Shoigu
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Repost from RT News
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❗️Russian troops liberated Pervomaiskoye, Bogdanovka, and Novomikhailovka in the DPR, Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu announced
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Repost from RT News
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Switzerland brushes off neutral status to block over $14 billion in Russian assets — Bloomberg Bern has blocked 13 billion francs ($14.3 billion) in Russian assets in the country, including more than 7 billion francs in reserves and assets of Moscow’s Central Bank, Bloomberg reports. The decision is considered controversial in the historically neutral country that in 2023 froze a further 580 million francs in financial assets and two more properties, following its investigations and detailed clarifications by banks, the State Secretariat of Economic Affairs said on Tuesday.
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Repost from RT News
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❗️BRICS security chiefs meet in St. Petersburg Security Council chairman Nikolay Patrushev met with his Chinese counterpart Chen Wenqing on the sidelines of the 12th International Security Summit of Russia to discuss strengthened ties between their respective law enforcement agencies and special services, TASS reports. Representatives from over 100 nations are in attendance, including the security chiefs of Iran, India, Brazil, South Africa and Iraq.
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Repost from RT News
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Global military spending hits record high $2.4 trillion The Stockholm International Peace Research Institute think tank estimates worldwide defense spending has bumped up 7% last year in the steepest rise in 15 years. The report claims Ukraine boosted its spending by 51% to $6bn, making it the eighth highest in the world even before foreign aid was accounted for, while Europe as a whole splashed $588bn in 2023 - up 16% from the year before. Unsurprisingly though, the US remains way ahead at the top of the charts, spending more than the rest of the top 10 spenders combined.
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US goes 'slippery slide' with sending its military personnel to Ukraine Troops from the US and other NATO countries will be in Ukraine fighting Russian troops within a year, security and international relations expert Mark Sleboda argued on Sputnik’s The Critical Hour.
“We (The United States) were at trainers and advisers and CIA and special forces [in Ukraine], and now already, we’re at logistics and maintenance personnel. It’s quite clear where this is going,” Sleboda began. “US troops and [troops] from several other NATO member states will most likely be on the ground in Ukraine fighting the Russians within a year.”
The reports of an increased US presence in Ukraine were presented as “they’re going to be working out of the US embassy,” in Kiev, Sleboda said, but that assertion is far from reality, he argued.
“I’m not quite sure how big the US embassy is in Kiev, but I doubt it’s enough to set up a maintenance workshop for, I don’t know, Abrams tanks or something like that,” Sleboda jokes. “So it almost certainly means that these US troops will be out and about in Ukraine, probably not too far from the front line. And you can certainly see the slippery slide.”
Go through link to learn more
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Repost from DD Geopolitics
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🇺🇸🇺🇦 A reality check for all the Ukraine supporters who think Ukraine is getting $60 billion worth of weapons. As for the US taxpayers... well you still get to pay this 🤷‍♂️ 🐻 What Ukraine actually needs is a "respawn button" for their soldiers. 🔴 @DDGeopolitics
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Repost from Slavyangrad
Rand Corp 5 Years Later Part 2/2 The radical shift in policy recommendations seems to indicate the company has found new voices, likely the addition of structural realists to their ranks. US government officials are now waking up to the fact that they “don’t have the ability they once had to choke off another nation”(4) and that the world has moved irrevocably towards multipolarity. Given Rand’s significance in respect to US policy decisions, it’s becoming increasingly likely that the US will attempt to navigate the postwar world into a state of “Cold Peace.” And regardless of the scenario the US faces, this requires major concessions on their part to avoid dire consequences. ___ 1: Dobbins, J., Cohen, R. S., Chandler, N., Frederick, B., Geist, E., DeLuca, P., Morgan, F. E., Shatz, H. J., & Williams, B. (2019, April 24). *Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground*. RAND. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RR3063.html 2: Priebe, M., & Charap, S. (2024, February 9). The Day After: Postwar U.S. strategy toward Russia. RAND. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RBA2510-1.html 3: Mag, T. (2009, June 30). The Rand Corporation: the think tank that controls America | Mental floss. *Mental Floss*. https://www.mentalfloss.com/article/22120/rand-corporation-think-tank-controls-america 4: U.S. House Armed Services Committee. (2024, April 10). 20240410 Full Committee hearing: U.S. military posture and national security challenges in Europe [Video]. YouTube. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mLbWrj3fFxk @Slavyangrad | Nagasaki Nightmare 👋
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Repost from Slavyangrad
Rand Corp 5 Years Later Part 1/2 An article I wrote recently touched on a white paper released by Rand Corp in 2019 titled Extending Russia, Competing from Advantageous Ground. The paper was written to offer policy advice for the purpose of antagonizing Russia and forcing Russia to overextend itself. Policy recommendations were made with the clear intent to exploit “Russia’s economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties.”(1) And as discussed in that paper, those recommendations were enacted. In February of this year Rand Corp published a research brief titled The Day After, Postwar U.S. Strategy Toward Russia. The recommendations made in the brief represent a fundamental and necessary shift in US Russian relations in the postwar order. The brief first notes the nature of the current conflict, its difference between the World Wars, and the need for a reasoned approach to the postwar order. The current conflict “pits one major power against a large neighboring state that is supported by another major power, the United States, and its allies. Whenever the conflict ends, the way that the United States approaches its relationship with Russia will affect U.S. interests in Europe and, likely, around the globe. Given these stakes, U.S. strategists need to plan for the postwar period now. The first step is to identify possible U.S. policy approaches and assess their likely impact.” Noting there are myriad outcomes which aren’t discussed, the paper focuses on two potential outcomes for a postwar world. The first, deemed less favorable, is one in which Russia’s aims have been imperialist in nature. The second, deemed more favorable, is one in which Russia’s focus has been its security interests all along. The paper then evaluates the potential outcome of each based on US postwar disposition, whether it takes a hard line or less hard line stance in its postwar strategy. There are a great many of points which are unlikely to be realized in both the more and less favorable scenarios. Each envisions a postwar world in which only modest territorial setbacks, with the more favorable scenario seeing modest gains by Ukraine before the end of the war. Other factors are considered, such as the state of Russia’s military, economy, and relations with China. But regardless of the outcome of the war, the key findings here are that the US should take a less hardline stance in the postwar world. The recommendations made for US postwar policy are no less than a complete reversal of its policy since 2008. The less hardline approach would require US drawn down of forces in Europe, no additional forces placed in Eastern Europe, no integration of Ukraine into NATO, no further promotion of NATO membership, Ukrainian neutrality, no steps toward Georgian NATO integration or membership, reduced security cooperation with regional states, and conditional sanctions relief. But most importantly it calls for the US to “limit efforts to undermine Russian influence.” Rand Corp’s ideal postwar world envisions nearly complete capitulation by the US and Ukraine to the security demands of Russia. Ukraine’s 2019 constitutional amendment requiring it to join NATO would necessarily be repealed. It’s evident that enacting these policies in 2008 could’ve avoided the tragic loss of life and loss of territory for Ukraine. As their 2019 policy recommendations demonstrate, their position has been consistently and overtly hostile towards Russia. RAND has been referred to as “the think tank that controls America.”(3) Their analysis has molded US policy since just after WWII; its influence can’t be overstated. @Slavyangrad | Nagasaki Nightmare 👋
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My latest Podcast Interview on Faultlines 22/04/24Podcast Interview on Faultlines 22/04/24 US Congress Approves New US Military Aid for Kiev Regime, Pentagon to Send More US Troops to Ukraine, Ukraine Military Sitrep, more... https://open.substack.com/pub/marksleboda/p/us-congress-approves-new-us-military?r=mra7c&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&showWelcomeOnShare=true
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🇷🇺🇺🇦NEW VIDEO: US Passes $61 Billion Ukraine Spending Bill But Lacks Arms/Ammunition to Send in Sufficient Amounts How to Support my Work (and thank you!): Buy Me A Coffee: https://www.buymeacoffee.com/TheNewAtlas Patreon: https://www.patreon.com/landdestroyer Follow The New Atlas on Telegram: https://t.me/brianlovethailand
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Repost from Ukraine Watch
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🇺🇦 A "difficult situation" and "problems" await Ukraine from May — head of the military intelligence, Kirill Budanov "A rather difficult, in our estimation, situation awaits us in the near future. But it is not catastrophic, this also needs to be understood. Armageddon will not take place, as many are now beginning to say. But there will be problems from the middle of May," the head of Ukraine's military intelligence said. According to him, "the Russians will use a comprehensive approach." "It will be a difficult period. The middle of May, the beginning of June," he added. t.me/ukraine_watch
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Repost from Heil Ukraine
🇺🇦 Ukrainian neo-Nazis. Just an ordinary concert in Zhytomyr Ukraine. Nothing special. There are no nazis in Ukraine. Subscribe to my channels: @heilukraine1959 @heilukraine1959arab Give us a boost!!: https://t.me/boost/heilukraine1959
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Repost from Kalibrated
Ukrainian sources report that Russian sappers have begun to clear mines and remove mines on the border of the Sumy and Kharkov regions.
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Repost from DD Geopolitics
🇺🇦 The Lvov Trade and Economic Chamber has released a couple of artistic videos urging voluntary mobilization. In the first one, apparently, if Ukraine loses, Ukrainians will be mobilized by Russia and sent to Berlin. In the second one a "Russian Military Man" wakes up in someone else's appartement in Lvov, and looks at Lvov City Hall, where a Ka-52 is flying, which is kinda even more ridiculous than the first one because no one wants that nazi sh*thole a.k.a. Banderastadt. 🔴 @DDGeopolitics
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Repost from DD Geopolitics
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🇷🇺 Russian soldiers in the tree line south southeast of Ocheretino came across a section of Russian Volunteer Corps (Russian Nazis). The Russian Nazis were destroyed in the battle. One of them was a 54 year old from Kemerovo Oblast. Video Credit: @Solovievlive 🐻 There are ethnic Ukrainians fighting in the Russian Army and ethnic Russians fighting in the Ukrainian Army. This war is an interstate war but also a kind of civil war. 🔴@DDGeopolitics
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Repost from DD Geopolitics
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🇺🇸🇺🇦 US aid is unlikely to radically change Ukraine's situation. - Wall Street Journal The vote in the House of Representatives to allocate $60 billion for financing Ukraine occurred at a desperate moment for Ukrainian forces, writes The Wall Street Journal. As many expect, the bill passed by Congress will be approved by the US Senate and signed by President Biden as early as Tuesday. After that, the US will send military equipment to Ukraine, which Washington has already prepared for rapid deployment. However, considering Ukraine's dire situation on the battlefield and the successes achieved by Russian forces in recent months, the new aid is unlikely to radically change Kiev's fate. Ukraine is experiencing a severe shortage of manpower on the front lines. And Zelensky stated this month that Russian forces are firing 10 artillery shells for every shell fired by his soldiers. At best, as the publication notes, American supplies could help Kiev hold back Russia's advance and retain territory, potentially allowing Ukraine to tie down Russian forces until European allies can provide additional assistance next year. 🔴 @DDGeopolitics
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Repost from InfoDefenseENGLISH
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Putin: A Champion of the Global South? А rather balanced account from an Arabic newspaper on President Putin, the war in Ukraine and Western hegemony. On March 18, Vladimir Putin emerged as the winner of Russia's presidential elections. His victory elicited positive reactions from many across the Global South. The Collective West, on its part, has been eerily silent about the win, and there are obvious reasons for that. From a Global South perspective, the true achievement lies in Putin's defiance of Western economic sanctions and the military aid to Ukraine. The costs of the sanctions and the Ukraine war were paramount for both the West and Russia, but far greater for the EU. The de-industrialization accompanying sanctions on Russia has resulted in disastrous outcomes for the EU economy. Conversely, Russian economic resilience has effectively demonstrated that sanctions can be mitigated and overcome. With the establishment of new transaction mechanisms, the fear of sanctions no longer seems to weigh as heavily as it once did. The gradual formation of an alternative financial market by the BRICS nations further compounds these developments. Nothing can better convey the end of US-EU financial hegemony than the panic surrounding the use of Russia's frozen assets. Moscow is now challenging the forces that for years have kept the masses in a state of social and ideological paralysis. Two years into the war in Ukraine, Russia has not merely been making a stand for its national security. This war marks a pivotal moment in history as it signals the transition from a unipolar world to a multipolar world order. In the Global South, where the collective memory of millions who perished under the weight of imperialism and military aggression remains vivid and lucid, the realities at play are crystal clear. Where the West sees aggression and destabilization, the South sees retribution. Source 📱 InfoDefenseENGLISH 📱 InfoDefense
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My latest discussion with @RachBlevins 19/04/24 - Israel's "Lame" Counter-attack on Iran, Ukraine update, more... https://youtu.be/7y1qHDJ1_N4?si=G9fN9uEntSQT673x
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— 🇺🇸/🇮🇶 BREAKING: Large fires have broken out in Babylon Governorate, Iraq, after unidentified explosions Preliminary information indicates American aggression against an Iraqi military base, the PMU headquarters of Babylon. @Middle_East_Spectator
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Repost from DD Geopolitics
🇵🇸 Just posting this for the archive, so when we look back on who was against Palestine's admission to the UN, we'll know who the true assholes are and can call them out every time. In favor: 🇩🇿Algeria 🇲🇿Mozambique 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone 🇬🇾 Guyana 🇪🇨 Ecuador 🇷🇺 Russia 🇨🇳 China 🇫🇷 France 🇸🇮 Slovenia 🇲🇹 Malta 🇯🇵 Japan 🇰🇷Republic of Korea Against: 🇺🇲 USA Abstentions: 🇬🇧 UK 🇨🇭 Switzerland 🔴 @DDGeopolitics
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My latest Interview with Rick Sanchez on Direct Impact 18/04/24 Ukraine Bombards Belgorod While Zelensky Blackmails the West https://open.substack.com/pub/marksleboda/p/ukraine-bombards-belgorod-while-zelensky?r=mra7c&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web&timestamp=2.3
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