Fundamental Analysis (Long term)
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https://t.me/+Rn8RmYm0XMZTagXs I'm not a SEBI registered advisor,the information provided by me is for educational purposes only.You are responsible for all investment decisions,plz note that I dont provide any tips/stock suggestion.
Mostrar más📈 Análisis del canal de Telegram Fundamental Analysis (Long term)
El canal Fundamental Analysis (Long term) (@fundamental3) en el segmento lingüístico de Inglés es un actor destacado. Actualmente la comunidad reúne a 45 291 suscriptores, ocupando la posición 2 536 en la categoría Economía y Finanzas y el puesto 8 377 en la región India.
📊 Métricas de audiencia y dinámica
Desde su creación el невідомо, el proyecto ha mostrado un crecimiento acelerado, reuniendo a 45 291 suscriptores.
Según los últimos datos del 27 julio, 2026, el canal mantiene una actividad estable. En los últimos 30 días la variación de miembros fue de -54, y en las últimas 24 horas de -5, conservando un alto alcance.
- Estado de verificación: No verificado
- Tasa de interacción (ER): El promedio de interacción de la audiencia es 7.67%. Durante las primeras 24 horas tras publicar, el contenido suele obtener 5.02% de reacciones respecto al total de suscriptores.
- Alcance de las publicaciones: Cada publicación recibe en promedio 3 472 visualizaciones. En el primer día suele acumular 2 272 visualizaciones.
- Reacciones e interacción: La audiencia responde de forma activa: el promedio de reacciones por publicación es 6.
- Intereses temáticos: El contenido se centra en temas clave como margin, revenue, capacity, expansion, fy27.
📝 Descripción y política de contenido
El autor describe el recurso como un espacio para expresar opiniones subjetivas:
“https://t.me/+Rn8RmYm0XMZTagXs
I'm not a SEBI registered advisor,the information provided by me is for educational purposes only.You are responsible for all investment decisions,plz note that I dont provide any tips/stock suggestion.”
Gracias a la alta frecuencia de actualizaciones (últimos datos recibidos el 28 julio, 2026), el canal mantiene la vigencia y un amplio alcance. La analítica demuestra que la audiencia interactúa activamente con el contenido, lo que lo convierte en un punto de referencia dentro de la categoría Economía y Finanzas.
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Publicaciones del Canal
RadicoKhaitan Raises Guidance:
🟢Upgrades P&A volume growth guidance to over 25% for FY27
🟢Upgrades P&A volume growth guidance to over 25% from 20%
🟢Expect to deliver margin of around 20% for FY27
| 2 |  AURUM estimates a 23X demand supply gap for co-living and family rental properties by CY30 - Organized supply of 9lakh rental units against demand of 2 crore units. | 3 219 |
| 3 | Gravita India down 8% on dissappointing Q1 results
15-20% of our supply chain sourcing was through gulf, which was disrupted in Q1 , the reason behind the volume decline and utilization decline
Lower lead tonnage (43,897 MT vs 48,889 MT in Q4FY26)
EBITDA margin - declined to 9.80% in Q1FY27 from 10.74% in Q1FY26
PAT margin - declined to 7.21% in Q1FY27 from 8.97% in Q1FY26
Diversification into copper, aluminium, plastic, rubber and lithium.
Entry into copper came via the RMIL acquisition, 99.44% stake for ₹561.84 Cr, adding 31,200 MTPA capacity in Sarigam, Gujarat.
Capex plan through FY29E - existing verticals: ₹107 Cr (FY25), ₹200 Cr (FY26), ₹250 Cr (FY27E), ₹375 Cr (FY28E), ₹190 Cr (FY29E).
Vision 2030 remains intact | 1 978 |
| 4 | Q1 FY27 notes for companies that posted blockbuster results:
Sterlite Tech
R R Kabel
Ujjivan SFB
Ramkrishna Forgings
Sterlite Tech:
- PAT at 197cr. 3.5x FY26 full year
- revenue 87% y/y. margin at 20.8%, guidance at 23%
- order book at record 18618cr, Q1 wins of 13100cr
- 1.1bn multi year hyperscaler deal secured thru FY2029
- data center segment at 21% of sales, targeting 50% this year
- connectivity attach rate at 16% targeting 25% by Q4
- QIP raised 1500cr and net debt free
- capex at 500cr pa. for 3 years for de bottlenecking
- India DC capacity to grow 7x to 10GW by 2031
- my estimates are around 1000cr PAT this year.
Ramkrishna Forgings:
- revenue up 20% y/y, PAT 172% y/y
- rail wheel JV is big trigger, 80000 wheels confirmed from Railways plus 25000 from JV partner
- FY29 revenue target of 8000cr at 22-25% CAGR
- asset turn target of 2.5x on 3700cr net block equals 9000cr revenue at peak
- major capex is behind, FY27 capex only 350cr
- debt reduction of 400-500cr taking net debt from 1900cr to 1500cr
- exports targeting 35% of sales which will highest ever
- PV segment order book at 50/50 between EV and IC
- can do 900cr+ PAT by FY29
Ujjivan SFB:
- PAT at 317cr. ROA of 2.2% and ROE of 18.2%
- borrower base growing again after 7q of degrowth
- 1.72 lakh new customers added in Q1
- ROA guidance raised to 1.8-2%, credit cost guidance cut to 0.9-1% from higher
- gold loan book at 1020cr up 249% y/y
- secured book at 50% of gross loan book for first time
- 2000cr equity raise planned for H2 FY27
- CASA target at 29-30% for FY27 and 35% by FY30
- MFI slippages down to 1.72% annualized from 2.68%
- can do around 2000cr+ PAT by FY29 at 2.4% ROA
RR Kabel:
- highest ever qtr revenue and pat
- W&C volumes grew 17% y/y
- volume guidance at 18% in W&C and 25% in FMEG
- 1200cr capex for FY26-28 with 80% in cable, 650cr to be deployed in FY27
- scaling from LV to HV cables up to 220KV by FY28
- wires utilization at 65-70% and cables at 90%
- 2-3% market share shifting from unorganized to organized annually
- new wire capacity will be added this q
- cable capacities will be added later this year
- can do around 1400cr PAT by FY29 (my estimates) | 1 754 |
| 5 | Avenue Supermarts (DMart) | Investor Call Highlights
Store Expansion
- FY27 store growth 15%.
- FY26 expansion was 20%.
- Land acquisition remains bottleneck.
- Lease model can accelerate growth.
- Expansion target remains achievable.
Business Performance
- Metro SSSG at mid-single digits.
- Competition and store maturity impact.
- Tier 1/2 productivity initially lower.
- Majority products competitively priced.
Customer Value
- Average order value ₹1,600.
- Customers save 10%+ on average.
- Focus remains on value retailing.
Competition
- Q-commerce concentrated in metros.
- Long-term impact seen as limited.
- Competition tracked continuously.
- Best-value positioning maintained.
Margins
- Gross margin guided around 14%.
- Efficiency gains offset competition.
- Sourcing benefits passed to customers.
Management Commentary
- Capital not a constraint.
- Manpower not a constraint.
- Operational efficiencies improving.
- Long-term growth outlook remains intact.
Impact
- Neutral.
- Slower store expansion.
- Value proposition remains strong.
- Margin discipline continues.
- Q-commerce impact manageable.
Key Takeaway
- Avenue Supermarts expects slower store additions in FY27 due to execution constraints, but remains confident in maintaining its value-led retail model, stable margins, and long-term growth despite rising q-commerce competition. | 1 514 |
| 6 | Tilaknagar
🥃 EBITDA aspiration
FY27 EBITDA = ₹650–680 cr
FY29 =₹1,000 cr
🥃 Deleveraging
Decline to ~₹1,700 cr by FY27-end vs ~₹2,100 cr as of June 2026
Telangana update Pushing for a price hike, ₹560 cr of receivables pending | 1 825 |
| 7 | Fabtech Technologies: FY27 Growth Outlook
• The company expects 20–25% YoY organic growth in FY27.
• Management expects Q2 to remain steady, with stronger execution in H2 FY27.
• The company expects opportunities in Africa to further strengthen its business pipeline.
• Order book: Over ₹900 crore.
• Market Capitalisation: Approximately ₹600 crore. | 3 206 |
| 8 | A short note on Precision Engineering in India and why is different vs normal manufacturing/engineering businesses?
-Precision Manufacturing is concerned with manufacturing and assembling items with exceptionally low tolerance and are required to perform consistently over longer repeat cycles.
-Accuracy and margin of error are crucial for engineering and production. Any deviation in dimensions can lead to loss of performance or even catastrophic failure of the system.
-Precision manufacturing entails producing and assembling components with micron- level tolerances and high repeat-cycle reliability, typically involving long qualification cycles and significant upfront investment in tooling, and process capabilities.
-Unlike conventional engineering, precision manufacturing is a capital-intensive, long-cycle business, characterised by dependence on a few OEMs and lumpy revenue profiles.
-While Indian players have delivered strong growth in recent years, most remain sub-scale, typically with revenues below 1000 crores and PAT under Rs.150 crores. Scaling beyond this level requires continuous reinvestment in capacity, certifications, and customer-dedicated lines, largely funded so far through external capital.
-The shift in Indian Precision engineering industry is evident given the imports of CNC machines in India is growing at CAGR of 17% CAGR since Post covid.
-Aggregate revenues of Indian aerospace assemblers and component manufacturers have grown at a 20%+ CAGR over the last three years; despite this, India still accounts for <1% of global commercial aerospace exports, underscoring a long runway for growth.
-Incrementally, Boeing and Airbus are targeting to double India sourcing over the next five years, while engine OEMs are accelerating JVs, deeper localisation, and the establishment of assembly lines.
-India Currently has less than 4% market share in Precision Engineering Industry in the world.
What constitutes of PM demand in India?
51%: Auto
14%: Aerospace & Defence
12%: Engineered Goods
6%: Power
4%: Semicon
4%: Commercial Aviation
9%: Others like Oil&Gas
Why is Precision Engineering hard to crack?
Precision manufacturing demands obsessive attention to detail for micron-level tolerances, zero-defect mindsets, and deep process know- how that only comes from engineers and operators who genuinely care about the craft. Success depends on continuous learning, repeated trials, and relentless quality discipline, where pride in execution matters as much as cost or speed.
It's like the CDMO business which requires deep domain knowledge and a multi year process of Qualifications.
How are the Unit Economics?
1. A Typical Precision engineering co can earn between 20-30% Ebitda Margins.
2. Asset turns are low at 0.8x to 1.5x.
3. Higher Working capital days at 150-200.
4. Roce at Maturity is between 15-25%.
Some Examples of Precision engineering companies in India
1. Azad Engineering in Turbines/Jet engines
2. Omnitech Engineering in Oil & Gas consumables
3. Aequs in Aerospace & Consumer parts
4. KDDL in Watches & Aerospace
5. Sona BLW in Robotics
6. Indo MIM (upcoming IPO) in Aerospace & Defence etc.
7. Sansera Engineering in Aerospace, Defence & Semicon.
8. Motherson Sumi in Aerospace.
9. Tata Electronics in Electronics components for Apple.
10. Titan Engineering and Automation Limited (TEAL) for Aerospace & Defence etc.
Many more such companies will emerge. It's our job as investors to keep a watch out for them.
As very few Indian businesses are working to crack Precision engineering at scale. One industry which one can watch out for the future given the nicheness & barriers to entry here. | 1 955 |
| 9 |  I still refer to notes like these while researching companies.
Thought I'd clean them up and share them here.
A simple cheat sheet covering the key KPIs and valuation metrics across 17 major sectors.
Stock Stats | Stock info | Infographics
@Stockinfo333 | 1 708 |
| 10 | Change of trend in earnings growth of Usha Martin:
1. Our wires business delivered strong volume growth of around 19% , with revenue increasing by approximately 32%.
2. Wire Rope segment's contribution to overall revenues stood at 73% in Q1 FY27.
3. Margin expansion was supported by an improved product mix, higher realizations, effective cost management and the pass-through of higher input and freight costs. | 1 754 |
| 11 | AMIT DAHANUKAR
TILAKNAGAR IND
Targeting Low Double-digit Vol Growth In FY27, Rev Growth Around 200 bps Above Vol Growth
FY29 EBITDA Could Be Around ₹1,000 Cr, Quarterly Exceptional Losses Will Decline
In Active Discussions For Price Hike In Telangana, Should Happen In Q2
Mkt Share By Imperial Blue Improved By Around 150 bps To 30% In The Segment | 1 827 |
| 12 | PRATEEK AGRAWAL
MOTILAL OSWAL AMC
BFSI players report strong Qi performance
IT margins reflect the impact of sharp rupee depreciation
Not invested in large-cap IT and private sector banks
Value migration tailwind continues to support digital stocks
Does not expect meaningful growth in the FMCG sector
Focus remains on Semaglutide players in the pharma space
GLP-1 players expected to post strong earnings in the near-to-medium term | 2 036 |
| 13 |  Sin texto... | 2 208 |
| 14 |  Sakar Healthcare Limited
Growth stems from 300+ dossier approvals by 2028, Accord/Intas partnerships (INR50-100 crores FY27 revenue), and Bavla plant capacity utilization rising to 50-55% by FY28, driving INR500 crores revenue and 25-30% EBITDA margins.
The critical execution watchpoint is regulatory approval timelines for dossiers and tech transfers, which directly enable EU/UK market access and revenue scaling. | 3 018 |
| 15 |  Gulshan Polyols Limited | 2 846 |
| 16 |  "Battery chemical demand is not a selling problem, it is a capacity problem."
Source: Acutaas chemicals 1Q27 concall. | 2 963 |
| 17 | SBI LIFE Says Expect VNB Margin To Be On The Upper End Of 26-28% For FY27 | 3 119 |
| 18 | KFIN TECH Q1 CONCALL
Revenue Growth To Continue At 18-20% CAGR
Targeting EBITDA Margin Of 40-45% Incl Ascent By FY27-end
Ascent Will Be EBITDA Accretive By FY27-end | 3 249 |
| 19 |  +1Neogen Chemicals: three decades of bromine, one bet on lithium
Neogen has made bromine and lithium specialty chemicals since 1989, out of Mahape, Vadodara, Dahej and Patancheru. Pharma and agro intermediates, flavours, electronic chemicals, and lithium compounds for cooling systems. 258 products, 30% exports, a 125-strong R&D team with 9 PhDs.
That is the business that exists. The one being built is different: Neogen Ionics, making lithium electrolyte and electrolyte salts for battery cells, with Japanese technology from Morita.
Q1 FY27, consolidated:
Revenue ₹250.3 cr, +34%
EBITDA ₹48.2 cr, margin 19.3%, +260 bps
PAT ₹17.1 cr, +67%
Organic ₹194 cr (+18%), inorganic ₹57 cr (+158%)
Neogen Ionics ₹19 cr, against ₹36 cr for all of FY26
Genuinely good, and achieved with the Dahej plant still down after the March 2025 fire, output run through toll manufacturing.
Where it goes
Interest was ₹20.8 cr, up 64%, eating 43% of EBITDA. Add ₹8.2 cr depreciation and 60% of operating profit is gone before tax.
That is the whole story of the last five years. Revenue has gone from ₹336 cr in FY21 to ₹862 cr in FY26. PAT has gone from ₹31 cr to ₹29 cr. Margin from 9.3% to 3.3%. The company has grown; the shareholder has not, yet.
Net debt is ₹1,295 cr against ₹816 cr of net worth and ₹137 cr of FY26 EBITDA. That is 9.5x.
Management
Founder Dr. Haridas Kanani, IIT Bombay, built India's first indigenous bromine plant and grew Neogen roughly 750x across 35 years. Now Chairman Emeritus at 80. His son Dr. Harin Kanani, IIT Bombay and a PhD from Maryland, is MD.
Governance reads well. Chairman and MD separated, with a non-promoter as Non-Executive Chairman. Promoters put in ₹161 cr themselves this year.
The FY27 plan
Standalone base business ₹875 to 950 cr. Q1 did ₹252 cr, and H2 is seasonally stronger, so the guidance looks beatable.
Battery ₹300 cr plus, mostly H2. Q1 was ₹19 cr. That needs roughly ₹250 cr across two quarters from a plant still in trial runs.
Then FY28 battery of ₹1,000 to 1,400 cr, and FY29 consolidated of ₹3,700 to 4,200 cr against ₹862 cr today.
The demand case is not imaginary. US tax credit rules push cell makers off Chinese supply by 2027, and Neogen has provisional approval from 4 international customers plus completed site audits at 3 US electrolyte makers. India has 220+ GWh of announced cell capacity against 3.53 GWh installed.
What changed this quarter
On the Q4 call, management said no additional funding was needed in FY27. The board has now approved a ₹600 cr QIP.
At current prices that is roughly 10% dilution. It is also, at some level, prudent: ₹497 cr of the ₹1,795 cr project spend remains, and ₹186 cr of insurance is still uncollected.
Track these, in order
Neogen Ionics quarterly revenue against the ₹300 cr mark
Dahej commercial start, slipped from June to Q2
Interest cost after commissioning, since project interest is capitalised until then and steps into the P&L after
Net debt, and QIP pricing
The ₹186 cr insurance receivable
Conversion of those provisional approvals into supply contracts
The catch
At ₹2,063 the market cap is ₹5,648 cr against ₹29 cr of FY26 profit.
Nothing in that price is about the current business. It is entirely about two plants that are not commercial yet, selling into customers who have not signed yet.
Both halves of the fixed charge, interest and depreciation, land in FY27 in full. Revenue has to arrive in the same year, or the P&L gets worse before it gets better.
Swing trading | Positional Trading
@Wealthcreator7 | 3 081 |
| 20 |  Ramkrishna Forgings | Q1 FY27 Concall Highlights
Financial Performance
- Revenue: ₹1,217 crore (+19.8% YoY).
- EBITDA margin: 17.96% (+332 bps YoY).
- PAT nearly tripled YoY.
- EPS stood at ₹2.58.
- Operating leverage becoming visible.
Operational Highlights
- Capacity utilization around 68%.
- Significant growth headroom available.
- No major capex planned until FY28.
- Focus on maximizing existing assets.
- Q1 margins considered sustainable.
Growth Drivers
- FY29 revenue target: ₹8,000 crore.
- Implies ~23% CAGR (FY27–FY29).
- Exports targeted at 35% of revenue.
- Export business expected to grow 20%+.
- Rail wheel JV to ramp up from Q3 FY27.
- Mexico plant scaling from Q3 FY27.
- Aerospace opportunity remains long term.
Margin & Profitability
- Higher utilization to lift margins.
- EBITDA margin expected to improve sequentially.
- Steel cost largely pass-through.
- Energy and freight remain key variables.
- ROCE guided to improve towards 20% in FY28.
Balance Sheet
- Net debt targeted to decline.
- Debt: ₹1,900 Cr → ₹1,500 Cr by FY27-end.
- Lower finance cost to aid earnings.
- Healthy cash flows support deleveraging.
- Low capex intensity ahead.
Valuation
- FY27E P/E around 38x.
- FY28E P/E around 21x.
- Earnings growth expected to accelerate.
- Valuation supported by operating leverage.
Key Risks
- Steel pass-through timing lag.
- Energy and freight cost volatility.
- Export demand fluctuations.
- Execution of overseas ramp-up.
- Aerospace orders yet to materialize.
Impact
- Positive.
- Strong operating leverage.
- Significant utilization headroom.
- Improving margins and ROCE.
- Debt reduction strengthens profitability.
- Multi-year earnings growth visibility.
Key Takeaway
- Ramkrishna Forgings appears to be entering a strong operating leverage cycle, supported by underutilized capacity, improving margins, falling debt and limited near-term capex. If management delivers on higher asset utilization, export growth and margin expansion, earnings could compound meaningfully over the next few years, making it a structural manufacturing growth story.
Daily Live Quarterly Result Updates
@Stockupdate9 | 2 423 |
