The Mispricing Edge
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A lab for unconventional analysis of markets and trading systems.
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Channel Posts
I didn't guess. But either way, the event is cool. Anthropic's IPO and Open AI are still to come.
| 2 |  We'll be watching, it's interesting. | 208 |
| 3 | I expect a close today at >$200 per share.
We'll be watching, it's interesting. | 1 |
| 4 |  +1Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies beyond Bitcoin are already a more complicated story.
The endless argument over what should be called a shitcoin and what should count as a ânormalâ cryptocurrency will probably continue for a long time.
For many years, my own dividing line looked like this:
1. Bitcoin
2. Ethereum
------ shitcoins ------
3. Other cryptocurrencies
Ethereum is, without question, a revolution. Smart contracts were a breakthrough, and they continue to integrate more deeply into real life. For example, right now my trading robots operate on Polymarket, a platform where transaction logic is built entirely around smart contracts.
But how valuable is that specifically from the point of view of a long-term investor? That is where things become much less obvious.
Ethereumâs role in the development of crypto is enormous. But does that give any real guarantee that Ethereum itself will continue to grow as an investment asset? In my view, no.
And this is where it becomes important to understand how Ethereum differs fundamentally both from Bitcoin and from other blockchains.
Bitcoin is a unique thing. It is a finished project. In my view, that is one of its core features. Yes, different technologies and layers of infrastructure continue to develop around Bitcoin. But the idea of Bitcoin itself, and its core concept, were given to the world in something very close to a finished form from the beginning.
Ethereum is a completely different story. It is a project created by specific people, developed by a specific team, and its future evolution depends directly on that team.
What happens to Ethereum if active development around the project slows down or loses direction? Of course, it does not die because of that. But does it remain truly attractive for long-term investors under those conditions? Not necessarily. In a functionally similar segment, competitors can move quickly and pull users, attention, and capital away.
And that process is already underway.
In the last growth cycle, from 2023 to 2025, Ethereum failed to make a new ATH and stalled roughly around its previous highs. I do not think that was accidental.
By that point, part of the investment flow had already moved elsewhere. More advanced, or simply more fashionable, smart-contract chains were no longer living in Ethereumâs shadow. They were taking attention, users, and capital away from it. Above all, I mean Solana and others.
And even if I take my own case: do I personally use Ethereum as a smart-contract chain in everyday practice? No.
I move money through the Tron network. I trade on Polymarket, which uses Polygon underneath. People buy memecoins in the Solana ecosystem. I myself hardly use Ethereum at all.
And that means that if you buy Ethereum as an investment, at some point you may be doing it not because it is indispensable in your own usage, but because you believe in its growth simply as âthe number two cryptocurrency.â
Is that enough for a long-term investment case? I am not sure.
For that reason, my own dividing line has shifted a bit over time. This is how I look at the crypto market now:
1. Bitcoin
------ shitcoins ------
2. Ethereum
3. Other cryptocurrencies
And when I say âshitcoins,â I do not mean it as an insult. It is my own term from the point of view of a long-term investor.
For me, it means that investing in any coin from this list should not rest on the mere fact of its existence, or on the loudness of its brand, but on a full analytical case. A decision like that should be based on a concrete competitive advantage that this coin has relative to the others.
Bitcoin, by contrast, is a separate story. It is effectively a synonym for the word âcryptocurrencyâ for the broader public. It is already used as a store of value, and in my view it will continue to be used that way in the future.
Whether other cryptocurrencies will be used in the same way in the future depends not only on the idea, but also on the team, development, competition, and the projectâs ability to hold its place. | 1 039 |
| 5 |  +1Bitcoin Is Entering a Zone of Long-Term Interest
Bitcoin is approaching a phase that, in my view, looks interesting for long-term buying.
Bitcoinâs multi-year cycles have been fairly similar to each other. For that reason, it makes sense to assume that the current cycle, and the next ones as well, will be broadly similar.
Since 2014, Bitcoin has each time gone through a drawdown from its ATH of roughly 80%, 80%, and 75%.
At the same time, Bitcoin has shown a gradual decline in volatility over time. So I would not expect a drawdown meaningfully deeper than the historical norm, but I would not expect the current cycle to suddenly turn out radically milder than the previous ones either.
At this point, the drawdown has already approached the 50% area from ATH. And the range between a 50% and 70% drawdown looks to me like a comfortable zone for long-term Bitcoin accumulation.
Note that I am talking specifically about Bitcoin. Not about crypto as a whole, and not about altcoins as a class.
In the next post, I will separately share my long-term observations on Ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. And the conclusions there will not be as straightforward as they are in Bitcoinâs case. | 1 189 |
| 6 | As for the Gold Reaper signal itself and The Gold Reaper MT5 trading robot behind it, I will come back to that separately. The signal itself looks interesting across a broad set of metrics, but it makes more sense to break it down in the next step, using a more proper analytical toolkit.
And by the way, if anyone knows a service where you can get analytics on public trading accounts at this level of detail, send me a link. I do not know of any so far.
Links:
The Gold Reaper EA MT5 on MQL5
The Gold Reaper EA MT5 on EasyAlgos
Gold Reaper signal on MQL5
Gold Reaper signal on Myfxbook | 1 572 |
| 7 | How I set out to analyze Gold Reaper and ended up building my own alpha-version trading-account analyzer
As I already mentioned, new developers have been added to EasyAlgos, which means new trading systems have appeared there as well. From the point of view of diversifying a portfolio of trading systems, I was quite interested in seeing what was actually available there.
For the first analysis, I chose one of the currently most popular systems there: The Gold Reaper MT5 by Wim Schrynemakers. As far as I can tell, this is currently the sellerâs most popular trading system on MQL5, and the signal based on it is also showing solid results.
As part of the analysis, I went to look at the signalâs page on MQL5 and its monitoring page on Myfxbook.
And, as often happens with me, I fairly quickly found myself complaining again about Myfxbookâs limited capabilities when it comes to deep analysis.
I have been using Myfxbook for more than 12 years. It seems to me that even if I was not among the first hundred users of the service, I was definitely somewhere in the first thousand. And I have to say that 12 years ago, the appearance of that portal really was a major breakthrough in standardized trading-account analysis and transparent independent monitoring. Even now, in my view, Myfxbook remains the market leader in terms of the number of monitored trading accounts.
What hooked me from the very beginning was that Myfxbook offered genuinely useful ways to analyze accounts at the trade level. But over the last 12 years, in terms of interface and analytical depth, the service has barely changed in my view. There are things that could still be improved even in the trade analysis itself, but the main issue is that it still offers almost no proper analytics around the returns curve.
And of course, instead of staying focused on the Gold Reaper signal itself, I ended up drifting off and building my own analyzer â one that reconstructs a proper equity curve from trade history on one-minute data across the full life of the account.
In two days, not without help from Claude Code â because where would we be without it now â I put together a pretty decent alpha version of that analyzer. And the first account I used it on was this signal.
Using the trade file downloaded from MQL5 and one-minute bars downloaded from IC Markets, I built charts of minute-by-minute changes in both equity and balance across the full history of the account.
And data like that opens up a completely different level of analytical depth.
For example, on that basis you can calculate not only returns based on balance, which is what MQL5 and Myfxbook usually rely on, but also returns based on changes in equity.
The next important dimension is the dollar size of open positions at every minute of the accountâs life. And from that, it becomes easy to calculate the accountâs effective leverage at each point in time, which is very useful for understanding the character of trading on the account.
Separately, of course, I also built a detailed drawdown chart derived from the equity curve.
But endless charts are visually helpful, while not always ideal for a systematic view. So I also added aggregated statistics across different intervals: days, weeks, months, and years.
Then I realized that the same format can be used not only for returns, but for other metrics as well: maximum drawdown for the period, maximum effective leverage for the period, and total absolute profit for the period.
For example, one of the charts shows maximum effective leverage by month â both as a bar chart and in a summary table.
So after two days of work, I ended up with a tool that takes publicly available trade-history data and produces a much more detailed picture of trading-account dynamics.
For now, of course, it is only an alpha version. But even in this form, it already gives me something I have long been missing in both MQL5 and Myfxbook.
Below I will show a few screenshots and attach an HTML file with the analysis, so it can be explored directly. | 1 336 |
| 8 | Html file with Golden Reaper signal analysis. Yes, the file is large, but it contains a huge amount of minute-level data, and this is only an alpha version. This file only makes sense to open on a computer. | 1 045 |
| 9 |  +3No text... | 1 001 |
| 10 | Why I Donât Want to Mix Analysis and Decisions
I already had the experience of running a blog about investing and trading. I ran a similar blog in Russian for just under ten years.
It was a very valuable experience. It forced me to go deep into a wide range of investment-related topics and to understand them in real detail.
Now I see that the main mistake of that project was its format. I was doing not only analysis of investment instruments, but also publicly building my own investment portfolio.
But those are two different functions, even if they are related.
Building an investment portfolio and tracking it publicly over time is useful in its own way. For the reader, it is convenient: it really does make it easier to understand how investing works over time.
But that format also has a downside.
It strongly ties the author down and limits their ability to analyze other investment instruments properly â the ones they may personally dislike, find unsuitable, or simply not use themselves, but which still deserve attention from the standpoint of review and analysis.
That is exactly the mistake I do not want to repeat in this channel.
I want to shape it as an analytical lab, not as a guide to action.
My task is to give the reader more information, expand their understanding of certain things, and sometimes offer a different angle on potential investment instruments.
But not to make the main focus whether I personally would use a given instrument, or whether someone else should.
I have always thought it was perfectly normal for two people to read the same analytical piece about the same investment instrument, deepen their understanding of it, and still arrive at different decisions.
And that is normal.
More information leads to a more informed decision.
Even if the final decision ends up being different for different people. | 1 284 |
| 11 | I have long divided a traderâs strengths into two separate dimensions.
The first is market understanding: the ability to genuinely see what is happening. What market regime we are in, where the structure is, where the noise is, where the risk is, and where the usual logic is already starting to break down.
The second is the ability to make decisions that actually lead to profit.
And the problem is that many people confuse one with the other.
If you map traders across these two axes, you get four types.
Two trader abilities:
U = market understanding
D = profitable decisions
Type | U | D
------------------|---|---
Weak trader | - | -
Intuitive trader | - | +
Trader-analyst | + | -
System trader | + | +
The first type is the weakest. Everything is obvious here: the person does not understand what is happening in the market and at the same time cannot act in a way that produces profits.
The second type is the intuitive trader. This person may not be able to explain deeply what is happening in the market. They may not even like analysis at all. But their decisions turn out to be right. And that is what makes them money.
The third type is the trader-analyst. This is someone who genuinely understands the market well, but for one reason or another cannot turn that understanding into profitable action. There are a lot of people like this in the market.
The fourth type is the system trader. This is the strongest version: someone who both understands what is happening and knows how to turn that understanding into decisions that ultimately produce profits.
If I am being honest about myself, then of course all my life I wanted to place myself in the fourth category.
But in reality I am probably closer to the trader-analyst type.
Over many years in the market, I developed the analytical side much more than anything else: understanding regimes, system behavior, risk structure, the points where the market changes, and the points where old models stop working.
But market understanding by itself does not guarantee the right action. And it certainly does not guarantee profits automatically.
To me, that is one of the most important and most uncomfortable conclusions about trading.
To make money in the market, it is not enough to understand the market.
You must either intuitively or systematically make decisions that actually lead to profit.
Market understanding and profitable action are two different dimensions.
And it is very useful to define this honestly for yourself: which type of trader are you? | 1 425 |
| 12 | For a long time, I had been thinking about creating a separate Telegram channel alongside PAVELUDO Expert Advisors. That channel has always been very clearly tied to my own products: trading robots and signals. And every time I had the idea of publishing some analytical material that had nothing to do with my products directly, it felt like an unnecessary mix of topics.
But the reality is that my finished products, such as trading robots, are only a small visible part of a much larger body of analytical work. That work includes analyzing other peopleâs trading systems, testing them, and running both trading and analytical experiments across other markets and venues: centralized and decentralized crypto markets, stock markets, commodities, and more.
In one way or another, this has always been a large part of my actual work, yet it has remained outside my public presence. There is nothing secret about it. More than that, I think a lot of people may simply find it interesting.
And yes, one reason I am starting this channel now is the low effectiveness of my own trading systems at the moment. I want to step back a little from endlessly digging through old code, look around more broadly, and talk about what I actually see beyond the narrow frame of my own products. I think that will be both unusual and worthwhile.
At the same time, the idea itself is not new. I had been thinking about a channel like this for quite a while, but because I write in Russian, I was not sure I could translate my posts into English well enough. Today, that problem is largely solved by the development of LLMs, which already make it possible to translate ideas with a fairly high degree of accuracy.
And of course, we will also talk about LLMs themselves. At this point, they are inseparable from both the analytical side of a traderâs work and the practical side of building trading systems. I have already moved completely to writing trading-system code with Claude and ChatGPT, and a large share of my analytical work now also happens hand in hand with LLM tools.
This channel will not be limited to the âusualâ trading systems running on Forex through MetaTrader. I also want to discuss other types of systems: market-neutral approaches such as arbitrage and market making, trend-following systems, momentum systems, and even scalping â not my favorite area, but still worth discussing. And this will not be limited to one market. The focus will include crypto markets, prediction markets, FX, and possibly even cross-market setups.
We will also discuss global events and their impact on markets: the Orange Swan, the Trump factor, wars, natural disasters, and elections.
At the very least, I find all of this genuinely interesting.
Alongside broader analytical posts, I will also publish focused reviews of different trading systems and Forex signals.
One of the first post series will be devoted to the trading robots available on the EasyAlgos platform. Over the past few months, products from other developers have been added there, and I also think Valeriaâs trading systems are well worth testing and analyzing.
If this kind of channel speaks to you, welcome.
https://t.me/the_mispricing_edge | 1 839 |
