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nothing is financial advise, this channel will always be free, nobody will ever charge you for it financial markets observer
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3 061
spent an hour three days ago spinning up a market making bot on a new prediction market, roi so far ˜1.5k bps per day, crazy how much like random alpha there is in just being curious and trying out new things
3 061
looking for a designer for ~a month (paid, remote) — with option for a full-time role in NYC after the work trial
you should have exceptional taste in graphic design and deeply understand ui/ux.
to apply, dm me:
1. 3–5 screenshots of your best work
2. your favorite font & why
3. your favorite website overall, from a ui perspective
4. your favorite crypto L1 website, from a ui perspective
good signs you're fit for this:
you are autistically obsessive about design and can defend every choice you make. you are physically unable to ship something sloppy.
you'll report directly to me. i am extremely opinionated and perfectionistic on design, ui and ux — so i'm for sure a shit boss to have if you're not good. salary will be above standard though.
3 061
i think the next leg of ai will be expansion of knowledge over increase of productivity. this is not saying increase of productivity is priced in or already achieved (both are clearly not), but that the markets will start pricing in companies which benefit from frontier models getting smarter. reason for that is mostly observing realitibility of fable @ street eng and companies we're working closely with. productivity seems to be slightly stalled for software companies bc large firms don't trust the american foundation model providers with their internal alpha, thus they are increasingly switching over to either less leveraged ai work or to open weight models (or new verticals like palantirs effort). knowledge expansion (think jacobian functure) doesn't necessarily need AGI, it can happen wih compute intensive assistance aswell, thus a lot of the timing could be similar. think opus 4.6 release, how hard it increased productivity in coding. the model wasn't reliable, it didn't one-shot things, it needed heavy assistance, yet opus 4.6 was the largest driver of narrative in the market. it'll possibly repeat with knowledge / product expansion, which is not really priced in yet.
the difficult thing here is company selection, math will benefit, surely, but math discoveries are irrelevant to the market.
bio will benefit of it, but gets slightly dragged with fda approval if it's completely novel (maybe this is midcurve though and market doesn't care at all / prices it early in advance)
markets price capability demonstrations, not deployed reliability, and they front-run the narrative by quarters. i don't think the productivity stalling needs to be cushioned off by this at all, the winners just get selected differently by it (nvda still wins, no matter who does inference where)
pretty difficult to have sector specific bets here, if anyone has ideas would be interested in hearing thoughts
3 061
hey guys pivot to trading equities, these actually go up forever and we crypto traders are actually better than wall street we should all trade equities, equities are pristine assets that are incredibly simple to trade
3 061
it's beautiful how one can acknowledge evolas core that the modern mind has been robbed by everything good and honest yet come to the conclusion that the most productive way forward is to play the exact game of capital, status and power this insight is intuitively rejecting as ridiculous. be yarvin while you spiritually goon to the this pipe dream of the bronze age, ride the tiger. feels so philosophically dishonest living this though
