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Channel Posts
Since the beginning of the Iran war...
Price increase:
Sulfur: +57%
Jet fuel: +52%
Urea: +51%
Diesel: +48%
Gasoline: +36%
Chemical fertilizer: +35%
Heating oil: +32%
WTI crude oil: +28%
Brent crude oil: +26%
European natural gas: +21%
Coal: +12%
Palm oil: +10%
Iron Ore: +8%
Rice: +7%
S&P 500 Index: +4%
VIX index: -12%
⭕️ Want to subscribe to a report?
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| 2 | Brent=98.72$ | WTI=93.65$ | 257 |
| 3 | ⭕️ Want to subscribe to a report?
✅ Send a message to @Argusprovider | 266 |
| 4 | SPR_2026.04.08.pdf | 1 133 |
| 5 | SBB_2026.04.08.pdf | 1 125 |
| 6 | SD_20260408.pdf | 1 108 |
| 7 | Fastmarkets_Steel_scrap_prices_&_news_Daily_2026_0_260409_134609.pdf | 1 081 |
| 8 | Fastmarkets_Steel_prices_&_news_Daily_2026_04_09_260409_134547.pdf | 1 072 |
| 9 | +4 Fastmarkets_Steel_prices_&_news_Daily_2026_04_09_260409_134547.pdf | 1 |
| 10 | Brent=94.67$ | WTI=96.05$ | 742 |
| 11 | BREAKING: 🇺🇸🇮🇷 US and Iran agree to 2-week ceasefire, completely reopening Strait of Hormuz.
Brent=95.23$ | WTI=98.81$
@Free_Argus | 791 |
| 12 | Brent=109.34$ | WTI=109.34$ | 776 |
| 13 |  No text... | 826 |
| 14 |  First Page of Platts LPG
23 March
@Free_Argus | 1 270 |
| 15 | Brent=98.62$ | WTI=91.30$
@Free_Argus | 599 |
| 16 |  🛢 Brent oil is 92 dollars and 69 cents.
@Free_Argus | 514 |
| 17 |  +7✅ #Platts market experts have collaborated to deliver comprehensive data and insight on price movements, trade flows, production impacts and other critical market factors.
@Free_Argus | 474 |
| 18 |  No text... | 1 131 |
| 19 | Brent=85.42$ | WTI=81.07$ | 689 |
| 20 | Diesel Could Be the Next Explosive Market — Europe Is Highly Exposed
The jet fuel spike is a precursor signal. Historically, when middle-distillate markets tighten, diesel follows next — and often more violently.
1️⃣ Diesel Is the Backbone of Europe’s Economy
In Europe, diesel is not just a fuel. It powers:
• Trucking and logistics
• Agriculture
• Industrial heating
• Marine fuel blending
• Construction machinery
Europe consumes ~6–7 million bpd of diesel/gasoil, far more than it produces.
This structural deficit makes the region extremely vulnerable.
2️⃣ Europe Depends on Imported Diesel
Europe imports large volumes of middle distillates from:
• Middle East (Saudi, Kuwait, UAE)
• India
• US Gulf Coast
• West Africa
A major portion of those barrels normally travel via routes connected to the Persian Gulf and Hormuz flows.
If that logistics chain breaks:
→ Replacement cargoes must come from long-haul Atlantic Basin routes
→ Freight costs surge
→ Prompt diesel tightens quickly.
3️⃣ Gulf Refineries Are Key Diesel Exporters
Several large refineries currently affected by disruptions are major distillate exporters:
Examples include:
• Ras Tanura (Saudi Arabia)
• Al-Zour (Kuwait)
• Ras Laffan (Qatar condensate processing)
These plants produce significant volumes of diesel and jet fuel for export.
If operations slow or stop:
→ Global middle-distillate supply tightens.
4️⃣ Distillate Markets Are Already Tight
Even before the crisis:
• OECD diesel inventories were below long-term averages
• Europe lost large Russian diesel flows after sanctions
Since 2022 the system has been operating with much thinner buffers.
That means any disruption transmits into price spikes quickly.
5️⃣ Freight Is the Multiplier
Shipping rates have surged sharply due to Hormuz risk.
When freight rises:
• Long-haul diesel imports become expensive
• Arbitrage windows narrow
• Prompt cargoes command large premiums.
Freight often acts as the accelerator in diesel rallies.
6️⃣ Winter-Spring Demand Sensitivity
Europe is entering a period where diesel demand remains firm:
• transport demand
• agricultural season
• industrial recovery cycles
If supply tightens during this period, price volatility increases.
Historical Pattern in Energy Crises
During major geopolitical shocks:
1. Jet fuel spikes first (thin market)
2. Diesel follows (largest middle-distillate market)
3. Crude prices adjust afterward
Diesel often becomes the true inflation driver.
Market Implication
If Middle East disruptions continue:
Possible path for diesel markets:
• Diesel cracks widen sharply
• ARA gasoil premiums rise
• Europe increases imports from US and Asia
• Freight and insurance amplify the move
This could trigger a global distillate squeeze.
Key Signal
The jet spike suggests the refining system is shifting toward middle distillates.
When that happens, diesel usually becomes the most explosive product market.
And because of its structural deficit, Europe is the most exposed region in the world. | 754 |
