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Channel Posts
Very interesting 24 hours for BTC and onchain.
Firstly, we’ve had the initial selling from Saylor in size (216 mil) which covers the whole Q2 dividends for STRF, STRE, STRK, STRD and the full monthly dividend for June on STRC.
Funnily enough the selling had minimal impact on the chart and now the big question is out of the way on how he will pay dividends if mNAV becomes substantially low. I really struggle to see how this becomes the death loop Light posted about a few days ago.
Tough to fade Light as he’s been one of the sharpest participants over the last decade. I haven’t been as in tune with Saylor’s game theory compared to when the Iran war was in full swing, still taking the bias of nothing ever happens and the Saylor fud is unsubstantial to BTC’s longer term trajectory.
Regarding onchain, Ansem has had another leg up. With the amount of disbelief I see across the board for this coin, the level of supply control and concentration of marketing, I think there’s still fuel in the tank as so many are still offside.
The move from 170 mil to 450 mil over the past 4 days has only generated 60 mil in volume. Which tells me how tightly this is supply controlled/MM’d with no big exchanges online yet. Any positive move from majors and this performs as the highest beta on crypto bottoming alongside betting on Sol, onchain, memes and retail trickling back.
Cz followed Killua on twitter. CZ allegedly liked one of his bull posts on the coin from a video he posted, the follow essentially confirming the like as most of us weren’t buying it. Congrats if you took the trade in the range I recommended. Turns out I dislike making easy money on clear runners and went down the risk curve gambling on high risk low caps, you can guess the outcome.
It does paint an interesting picture for the coin with multiple hints of endorsement. Think I’ll take my medicine and not chase anything on BNB as it feels like gambling on steroids and chasing endorsement tweets isn’t my forte. Gut says CZ’s ego won’t let Sol have a easy win and will keep pushing memes to hold attention for communism chain.
Seeing some private inference projects popping up and having strength the past few days. Was mentioning how I think this could be one of the better bear market narratives a week or so ago. Still need to fully flesh out a thesis for it as I’ve been distracted by the recent memes.
We’re quite blessed at this stage in the market as there’s a flavour for everyone. Unless you have the ultimate toolkit, sticking to one or two domains at most is much better ROI on your time. If you aren’t chasing endorsement tweets, being on the 5 min chart will be net negative to your conviction and shake you out.
Wait for rotations, position in peak boredom and trade on a multi day/week time horizon. At the same time you need to take these markets day by day as there’s so much fluctuation, it’s not a part time or ape and log off environment. My views can flip on a dime from a single announcement and every thesis is strong conviction but loosely held.
| 2 | Sol onchain holding up decently well considering BNB volume vamp.
Was expecting more activity over the weekend, didn’t really account for 4th of July holiday and tradfi being closed Friday though.
Spent the morning watching a 30% circulating coin being posted by CZ at 10-20 mil and didn’t pull trigger. Was part burnout and part poor judgement/battle scars from previous BNB meta. Always found these coins weird due to how quickly a new runner gets vamped and the giga runners are random coins.
CZ is clearly a fag and doing it out of pure spite to try and crush Sol/westerners. Think there’s a 50% chance give or take he endorses it due to his ego.
If so think you probably see it trend anywhere from 200-400 mil. Been running around most of today and I wish I could give an opinion with higher conviction. If you believe CZ is going to let his ego get the better of him I can see a situation where he references himself as the Binance Bull or a tweet in that regard.
Low to mid 9 figs from CZ endorsement would set Sol runners back by at least a few days while PvP goes crazy on BNB. If no endorsement then Ansems coin has held very strong over a lower volume/activity weekend. The better Sol narratives are holding decently well, expected better performance from mid to low caps since Ansems coin found a new range but like I said lower activity due to holidays.
Tbh the CZ coin doesn’t seem like terrible bid if you can get it from 25-40 mil. At the lowest a direct interaction would bring it to 150 mil, more likely 200-250ish if I’m throwing out a figure off the top of my head.
Very tired and will give better thoughts tomorrow, might throw a bid in if I see a level I like. | 968 |
| 3 |  $ANSEM Game Theory
12 hours after my previous post and already does over a 2x.
Why I think this trade has so much fuel in the tank is due to the level of marketing concentration Ansem has. For starters he’s the last of the old guard who has daily activity and highest motion for any KOL by a long stretch. I know there’s references of this coin being a Trump equivalent and while it sounds stupid it’s not far from wrong.
Asteroid was announced as Elon’s personal mascot and this coin is trading significantly higher already. We’ve basically sent our biggest soldier to capture untapped retail flows at the bottom of the market cycle, if unsuccessful onchain would look very boring for quite some time.
If this coin can’t sustain momentum and comes crumbling down in a short time period, it would start genuine debates of memes entering a NFT death spiral and likeliness of ever returning. Despite what you think about the coin itself, I think its success is crucial for onchain appetite in the short, medium and long term.
The biggest catalysts/marketing:
⁃ He’s shown that anyone willing to support the token he’ll try to help or bring attention to (he’s trying to reinstate Mitches twitter because he bought 100k worth)
⁃ Using his supply as gorilla marketing efforts and genuinely looking to spend it on bringing in external participants. Think this is very important as gambling, sports betting, prediction markets and other ways for the younger generation to level up are growing stale
⁃ Like he said in a tweet he has 10x more followers than the last meme mania, 9 fig marketing budget with the token, one of the most watched podcasts on X/twitch with large retail following due to Banks, Bullpen trading platform and several revenue streams. Not many people were taking these facts at face value due to bear market battle scars.
⁃ Exchange listings - normally for any other coin I wouldn’t even give it a thought, however I do think there is some potential due to his reputation if there’s enough volume. Definitely more of a coin flip due to the friction being so low to buy with Phantom etc. Really depends on how many new traders they think it would bring to their platform.
Unless there’s exchange listings from the big fish then I’d be expecting the coin to range between 300-500 mil for the next couple days. As you can see from this move already, even the low cap shitters aren’t responding as higher tier betas while liquidity is so concentrated.
Until we have that similar range like 100-150 mil, I don’t see smaller memes reacting strongly yet. As it’s a creator coin, you can’t replicate it and we’ve seen grifters try and die within 12 hours. Picking the next runners will require much better foresight.
As for majors I don’t have an amazing read. I do think we are quite capped to the downside granted Saylor doesn’t pull anymore retarded moves. 63k is a smaller area of resistance and 67k is the much more important one. Sol coming into a pocket of supply and would be fireworks if it can get above 97.
There’s far more reasons to be optimistic than pessimistic right now. What’s most important is that we collectively agree on best practices and aren’t PvP’ing to death. Choose main runners and never full port no matter how good the narrative is. I’ll use this as an exaggeration but I mean full porting in regards to your maximum risk (e.g. 20% of port).
Dare I say we might be back for a couple weeks. | 1 665 |
| 4 | Thoughts on current memes
$ANSEM (170 mil)
Think this continues higher granted BTC and SOL hold or go up. Real mcap is 100 mil due to Ansems 60%. Interesting tweet I saw was asking the question of going back in time 1 year ago and seeing this coin drop, what would you do? Considering Ansems motion and understanding of the inner workings behind the scenes, it’s probably a safe bet to full port when crypto’s been in the gutter for so long, most of us have been conditioned to not take risk in this environment, otherwise we would of died 10x over. Giving the staircase effect as more and more traders come to realization that this is an obvious trade but arrived late to conclusion from battle scars.
$TRIPLET (13 mil)
Out of the current memes this has the potential to be a Fartcoin if memes return and we bottom soon. Tung tung has become a cultural icon with zoomers and is having the 67 effect where every wave it comes back it only grows stronger. The main narrative is being the original AI brain rot meme which I do think has quite substantial value. I remember watching the clips when it first came out and finding them hilarious with family/friends. Due to the nostalgia, growing cult following and historical significance of the meme, if there was one to slow grind up to 50+ mil I think this is the play.
$JOTCHUA (9 mil)
This was a really obvious play from 3-4 mil to 10 mil. The chart was showing you that it was essentially the only coin fighting a down only market with a growing cult following of traders chaining their pfp’s to the meme in WIF style. Why it was so obvious is due to the fact it was the only meme Ansem had endorsed at the time, clearly well bundled and growing in mindshare from active traders. You had a good window to identify this as sentiment was maxed out to the downside with majors. I really liked this coin up until Ansem dropped his token since the thesis was WIF 2.0. Not saying it can’t perform but personally it’s not as attractive now as it doesn’t act as a strong beta and its main attention driver has been taken away.
$DROOLING (2 mil)
As someone who traded memes back in 2024, this just gives me that gut feeling it has a lot of potential as one of those random coins that can do a 50x if caballed well. It’s not so much the virality factor of the meme itself but it’s flexibility to be used for any reference, it’s very easy and doesn’t feel forceful. The asymmetry comes from understanding who’s behind the coin, holders and growing mindshare/consensus between good traders. Could go to 0 tomorrow or be the sleeper runner. Don’t own any but I do like it.
$CHANCE (2 mil)
If you subscribe to the conspiracy that Ansem’s working silently with Alon in the background to revive Pump’s eco then this coins for you. The idea is a coin that uses fees to pay out people through pump’s bounty program to do something kind for others IRL. Basically trying to play into the wholesome narrative and Ansem said he’s been talking with the main dev on how to help. Does seem a bit odd given Pump’s new bounty angle. Not my style of coin but an additional narrative for you.
$TRAINDOG (1.5 mil)
This is about as left curve as you get. Again feeling very similar to the bucket of 2024 coins like Billy, Michi etc. Unless this gets caballed hard I struggle seeing it doing well vs the memes above. It does have the easily shillable retarded factor to it, although it doesn’t peek my intuition that a strong cult would sustain for this over a longer time period.
If memes do continue to be strong here the list above is what I’m watching the closest. Something important to note is paying attention to what shows strength in down turns and what the outperforming narrative is. Dog coins, cat coins, cult coins, creator coins etc. Look for strength, growing community and don’t go too far down the beta list because the market is too sophisticated to care for betas and you’ll likely underperform the main runner by a good margin. | 1 349 |
| 5 | While I’m all for playing what’s in front of you, we’re currently experiencing peak grift.
Good time to remind yourself how valuable your dollars are at this stage in the bear market and not to fomo into tier 4 course sellers bundled tokens.
I’m still trading some of these memes and participating in what feels asymmetric, except this isn’t the time to crank risk.
For one we’re in the later half of this mini mania Ansems caused. The RR for participating only gets lower as each hour passes. While there’s substantial volume compared to the previous weeks, you should be sitting patiently in stables and only taking very high conviction spots.
Something that serves me well is forecasting the future scenario where I evaluate what my emotional state would be if I either lost all my money or made a 2x on that current trade. Based on how convicted I was and the level of fomo I felt going into the trade, am I happy with my decision?
This boils down to the “good loss” “good win” analogy. You should only be trading in these two buckets and having minimal regret no matter the outcome as your decision making and sizing was impeccable.
Noticed I was overtrading the past two days and needed to slap myself in the face. The regret I’ll feel losing money in these conditions will outweigh the positives of profiting on sized trades. That momentum then becomes harder to generate when good narratives pop up and your confidence is lowered due to limiting beliefs from losing in bad conditions.
You don’t need to make it all back right this instance. Protect capital and continue researching for where the puck is going, right now the puck is being gang banged by room temp IQ tiktokkers. | 1 525 |
| 6 | Onchain showing its first signs of hope in months.
Ansem caught most offside with his coin, especially the fact he PvP’d the OG after he’s previously said that he doesn’t want to vamp coins. Pretty bad look on his part and is only encouraging more KOLs to maximise their bundles.
We haven’t seen a 9 fig runner since Asteroid nearly 3 months ago so at this stage I think most are happy to take what they can get. Considering how little this effected other small to mid sized onchain coins, you could argue it brought outside capital when comparing to vamps from Asteroid, Penguin, BNB szn etc. Or it was simply heavily bundled and MM’d.
The red pill is this is a forced attempt at washing around a closed pool of liquidity that isn’t attracting any new capital, pumping metrics into SOL and PUMP unlocks in the coming weeks.
The blue pill is this is a reversal for onchain and the Sol/Pump eco in general. The start of a new era where Pump fixes current issues, airdrops and builds better mechanics/fee mechanisms.
I don’t really ascribe to either of these atm. From my perspective this is an ego play on Ansems part, he’s bottomed Sol in the past and is looking to do it for a second time and set his name in stone by catching/creating the leading chain and meme narratives.
Trying to pin point the exact bottom during the bear is asking for a mental disorder.
We’ve always waited for blow off tops and fast wicking bottoms. This bull we never got a blow off top and BTC has never consolidated at highs for several months like it did. Maybe the inverse is true for a bottom and we never get a -20% candle that resets momentum. It seems like everyone is waiting for the doomsday scenario, wise for capital protection, however DCA works best over a multi month time window during peak despair.
For onchain to have anything sustaining, we need to see a change in environment from Sol, Pump or a new player to introduce a reason for people with capital to bid again. The people with capital have kept it because they haven’t been burned in the meme casino for the last 12 months. Without their bid nothing will be sustained.
Memes are always first off the bottom but the narrative is typically short as it’s a reversion play while traders shift through quality fundamentals when they see the canary in the coal mine come out alive.
Currently spending my time going deeper into private inference and potential utility plays as that seems the only area which makes sense with the current AI issues and backdrop. | 1 510 |
| 7 | In terms of where we are in the cycle and onchain coming back, I don’t think we’ve crossed the other side just yet. I do think private inference could be the 23’ DeFi bear market revival comparison.
DeFi and arbitrum szn was the first signs of life in Feb 23’ a few months after FTX’s collapse. Reason being was regulatory crack down on crypto and companies offering yield + revenue backed tokens.
The analogy you can make is nations locking down their frontier AI models due to geopolitical concerns. At some point it becomes more economically viable to contribute to an open source private inference protocol which has stability in up time and running mass outputs with token credits for large businesses or devs in general.
DeFi wasn’t new in 2023 but it took a new spin on previous models, private inference isn’t new but it’s taken a spin on current models. If we’re to see a truly asymmetric PvE meta it’s always been something new, so I don’t think private inference has an up only type run, however I think it could represent something similar to DeFi in the 23’ bear market.
For a sustained bear market meta, something new and shiny usually isn’t optimal. Traders will want to see narratives that’s pulling legit interest/users from web2 with a problem that can be fixed by privacy or open source infra. New shiny object syndrome operates much better in high liquidity markets as devs become more creative with products and tokenomics as there’s appetite for extreme risk.
GambleFi was the other adjacent narrative that people were calling the obvious meta due to VRF’s becoming a new and popular infrastructure piece. Rollbit was the main character due to many “tier 1” KOLs at the time taking 6-7 fig sponsorships and ref links. Smells awfully similar to Polymarket/Kalshi.
An exercise that’s worthwhile doing is going through some old substacks/podcasts of people who frequently spoke about projects or daily recaps on the market back in the last bear. Seeing sentiment and views towards specific protocols and appetite for risk based on price and events. Not that it’s a 1:1 representation of where we are but it helps gauge where we might be in the cycle and what type of narratives draw attention based on external variables. Been really enjoying going back in the time machine.
I do think if there’s alts you think will perform well over the next 1-2 years, the next 3-6 months is the time to crank up the risk and place bets. I wouldn't be too size or trigger happy just yet. You need to heavily stress test your thesis as markets are only moving faster by the day.
The biggest overcast is seeing how badly SPCX is reacting to more supply coming onto the market and not being able to sustain enough flows. Then forward looking to Anthropic and OpenAI. You can argue Anthropic and OpenAI are much better stocks and valued compared to Elon’s intergalactic shell company, so the flows would be much stronger and evenly weighted. A shake out in stocks and fast wick down would feel like a perfect bottoming catalyst for BTC if it were to come in the next 3 months. Or some type of strong resolution to the quantum fud.
Goes without saying but the small collective of individuals who stick around during this time period and remain optimistic while having unbiased views on different sectors will be the biggest outperformers next bull. Since there’s so little to do you can really move the needle in terms of upskiling your knowledge and domain expertise on what you think will do well or figuring out what it might be. Write, write, write. Anything that’s interesting or has new mechanics document it, give a thesis on how you think it performs and why. Do this dozens of times and you’ll eventually hit.
This is coming from someone who frequently had less than 1k in their bank account and at absolute rock bottom last bear market. 6 months of hard work now will pay tenfold when the environments right. | 2 196 |
| 8 | Btc looks to be putting in its bear market range lows.
I’ll admit I was overly bullish back at 80k, wasn’t expecting Saylor to come out and say he’s a willing seller and how much of a cascade that caused.
Although I think this was for the better and good that the bandaid is ripped off now. Gets rid of the “what if” regarding his supply control and people have come to terms with his dividend payments not being a big deal.
If we were to trade into the low 50’s I’d be calling family members and telling them to full port BTC, granted there isn’t damaging quantum headlines. I do think the quantum situation is becoming increasingly relevant, especially with the arrival of mytho’s/fable.
I went down the quantum rabbit hole 5-6 years ago and it was obvious it had a long way to go back then. The theoretical foundations and mathematics were well understood but the bottleneck was engineering rather than theory. Building stable, fault tolerant qubits was very difficult, so the gap was between what quantum computers could theoretically do and what real hardware could actually execute. With the development in AI over the past few years, I'd imagine there’s been meaningful progress in quantum hardware and error correction, but I'm not up to date on how much that gap has closed.
At this point the only narratives I can see driving us lower is quantum progress and/or the stock market collapsing. Considering zero rate cuts are expected and Trump’s made American superiority through asset prices mandatory, every -3% dip is eaten up within a couple days. Saylors ripped the bandaid off and we know STRC isn’t going to blow his ponzi up, since he’s a willing seller to cover loans for now.
Maybe I’m a Japanese soldier, but I still see a future where good alts and onchain coins perform. As someone who was here 12 hours a day during the last bear market, vibes and interests feel near identical. You could argue that we actually have far more progress and optimism with the leading alts like Hype, Zec, VVV etc.
The whole “onchain is solved” argument is actually more of a bull case for the genuine products that accrue users and revenue. Since there’s so much bullshit to shift through, the few that stand out will amass a premium to their valuations as friction for entry is so low and crypto allows for better culture and animal spirits (attention reflexivity). You saw this playing out with Moltbook when it was essentially a meme token and no formal confirmations from the dev. VVV is half the narrative/excitement that Moltbook was, but on the merit of genuine product and well crafted flywheel, it’s been able to find a niche in private inference while doing a 20x over 6 months.
Last bear market was the same, majority was slop although we didn’t have vibe coding so volume of new projects was much lower. I managed to catch a 100x on Pendle and many other DeFi plays early due to the Biden administration pushing hard on CBDC’s and attempting to crush any form of equity/yield offering products. Despite sentiment and increased grift, there will still god spots. The problem is they need max conviction and willingness to sit on hands for several months in most cases, which in a bear market is like sitting on spikes.
Copy trading in this environment is far more dangerous than the bull. In the bull you can get bailed out in bad spots due to attention and a rising tide, except that doesn’t work in the slightest for anymore than a handful of coins in the bear. Even those handful of coins like Zec washed anyone out who was leveraged 2x or more due to the double spend exploit from mytho’s.
Now is the best time to be putting in the work and looking at what stocks are currently showing and trying to project what 6 months in the future will look like. This has been a proven method time and time again, you just need to stress test your thesis a hundred times with every possible fundamental, cultural and memetic variable. | 1 874 |
| 9 | Thoughts on SPCX
It’s consensus that Elon is the grand master of manifesting “impossible” narratives into existence. Betting against him has ruined countless careers for fundamental traders. In all instances with having a deep crypto and memetic background, we all know how the overhyped KOL CEO protocol ends when they eventually run out of time and shill power.
Except Elon’s one in a billion and previous frameworks don’t really apply to him, yet. Each miracle company he scales adds more confidence to his own abilities, therefore taking bigger risks. Since it’s difficult to apply fundamentals to such a speculative company, despite having some “qualifiable” physics backing his pitch, X, xAI and Starlink on the balance sheet, the best edge I can generate for this trade is understanding his psyche and how he’s positioned the asset to benefit from attention, based on float and NASDAQ dynamics.
As Ansem said, crypto traders have been training our whole careers for these type of attention trades. While SPCX is 4% float with intergalactic space travel as the narrative, the structure of the asset holders, unlocks and NASDAQ dynamics feel slightly different:
- 4.2% float
- only 20% to retail -> this means 0.8% possible sell pressure (rest to long-only)
- >50% won't sell given flipping policy / natural hodler -> 0.4% possible sell pressure
Index funds are expected to buy 20bn / 1% -> 1% >> 0.4% -> 99.6% control while a DAT is coming in 2 weeks.
Regarding lock up schedule, there’s a 30% performance hurdle (must close $175+ for 5 consecutive days for 10% to unlock), as well as August earnings date, which will unlock 20%. Additional 7% tranches unlock at 70, 90, 105, 120, and 135 days post IPO.
The greenshoe (over-allotment option allowing underwriters led by Morgan Stanley) can sell up to ~15% more shares in the first 30 days.
This trade is more so invalidated by time, not price if you’re trading it leading into the DAT purchases. Due to the 10% unlock if price stays over $175 for 5 consecutive days, this will act as a major roof in the short term as traders won’t be willing to speculate on price staying above that level as it affects float so much.
Nasdaq changed rules (effective May 1, 2026) for fast track Nasdaq 100 inclusion after just 15 trading days for large new listings (no 10% float minimum, with float multiplier). For a June 12 IPO, this lands around early July (~2–3 weeks). Russell indices also have fast entry. S&P 500 is slower (no fast track).
Index funds tend to be permanent holders, meaning shares effectively disappear from circulation once purchased. With 4–5% float and potentially <1% truly liquid float, even a relatively small amount of forced buying can outstrip available supply.
Nasdaq 100 will equal roughly 15-25 billion of buying. Russell will equal roughly 2-8 billion. Current tradable float is 80-100B, if we’re taking the 99.6% supply control number then 0.4% equals around 8 billion.
With the DATs buying being so forecasted it’s difficult to see price remaining above 175 as 10% of additional shares will come onto the market. In saying that this entire launch has been designed to capture as much upside as possible, you’d think Elon must have something else up his sleeve, although that’s never a strong variable to put weight on for a trade.
That’s how I currently see this trade. There is decent amount of asymmetry granted how little information has been provided regarding the roadmap of SpaceX and its encompassing companies. In terms of volatility I don’t see it being too significant until we get closer to those DAT purchases, if price remains above 175 and/or the greenshoe being activated.
Unless Elon pulls a rabbit out of the hat, which I think if anyones going to he’s the person that will, there’s quite an overcast of short and mid term future unlocks that deters momentum traders from buying. | 1 581 |
| 10 | The actual counter trade: I think the clearest counter to “Mythos/Fable makes security vulnerabilities explode” is privacy infrastructure plus trusted execution. Confidential computing, zero data retention workflows and more specifically on prem/local inference. Microsoft restricting employee use for Fable because of Anthropic’s retention policy is a clear signal that privacy/compliance friction can materially affect model adoption. NVIDIA, alongside the confidential computing ecosystem are explicitly pitching encrypted in use AI workloads to unlock sensitive data without giving up control. So the higher conviction trade is long trusted execution. It’s a balancing act being dependant on private inference/local AI as costs are significantly higher and you aren’t getting the benefits of seeing what hallucinations form from using popular models. However, it’s difficult to see large companies not employing at least a hybrid approach where they have generalized tasks using public models and deeper internal information on their private inference stack. You can already see this playing out to some degree through memory and hardware as it’s not only AI firms hoarding supply but individual companies building their own data centres. Stocks like Dell, Supermicro, Nebius have been strong already but fit this thesis quite nicely.
Been practicing what I preach and trying to harness my curiosity to become interested and more importantly optimistic on markets once again. Going down rabbit holes opens your mindset on how different industries react to events with second and third order implications. It’s been a nice brain exercise even if no trades result from it. I typically find when doing this procedure, steering away from crypto directly and looking for abstract ideas is the best option. Reason being is we can often feel like we’re pedalling in a circle if crypto is all we’re exposed to and crypto related thought experiments. Digesting new information and theses helps expand different pathways and outlooks for how the world works. Safe to say it’s given myself a new wave of enthusiasm to continue researching more niche ideas that can provide a profitable edge. | 1 401 |
| 11 | Exciting asymmetric trade ideas - Part 2
3. Attention Restoration (brain rot) - It’s obvious how much short form video and AI has brain rotted our general cognition to operate independently. If you take a look at ADHD diagnosis across children today they’re drastically growing and I’ve had personal friends working in childcare who’ve noticed a dramatic difference over the past 5-10 years. This kind of boils down to two different buckets. The near term trade is attention restoration inside regulated channels like ADHD diagnosis/treatment, stimulant supply, digital therapy, sleep medication. The speculative side is peptides, research chemicals, neuro upgrades etc.
Trade expression: As ADHD increases it may be less about ADHD and more about the financialization of attention. As AI raises productivity expectations, employers and individuals increasingly treat focus, memory and execution function as assets rather than personal traits. Meaning the larger opportunity could come from measuring, scoring and optimizing cognition. Inversely, the winner might not be the therapeutic companies but the ones owning the data layer that quantifies and improves human cognitive performance. We’ve seen this with companies like Whoop or Oura rings, although maybe it goes a step further such as stress management, cardiovascular monitoring, anxiety treatment etc. Falling under some type of “biotech monitoring” service. Neuralink sits as more distant expression of this trade which doesn’t feel too badly priced at 50 billion granted you’re willing to sit on your hands for a few years or wait for a pullback on stocks.
Counterpoints: Karolinska’s longitudinal study of 8,000 children found heavier social media use predicted worsening attention over time and shortform video links addictive use with poorer attention and procrastination, but that is not the same as proof of irreversible decline or proof that healthy users will adopt pharmacological enhancement at scale. The issue with biotech and cognitive enhancements is that it becomes increasingly expensive as you continue to optimize for performance and the ROI shrinks. Private investors take the best use of these advancements then up sell the more basic components.
4. Privacy Infrastructure - Since the release and announcements of Mythos/Fable, it’s not a matter of AI coding more. The Mythos preview could identify and exploit zero day vulnerabilities in very major operating system and every major web browser during testing and Anthrophics internal dashboard alledgly said that by May 22 it had disclosed 1,596 vulnerabilities across 281 open source projects with only 97 patched at that point.
Trade expression: This has been the flavour of the past couple months in determining what the second and third order effects are of Mythos/Fable. We’ve seen a sell off in cyber security companies, Anthropic’s tool doesn’t replace realtime detection and mitigation. At the same time, the threat window is clearly compressing with each model upgrade that’s made. Vulnerability exploitation surpassed stolen credentials as an initial breach vector in 2026 data and CISA this week shortened the federal fix window for the most serious flaws to three days because AI is accelerating vulnerability discovery and exploitation. The obvious trade in this regard is for patch orchestration, exposure management platforms and also secure by design tooling like memory safe development. | 1 203 |
| 12 | Exciting asymmetric trade ideas - Part 1
1. World Action Models (WAM) - a new vertical in robotics which is a successor of VLA’s/VLM’s. Data collection through teleoperation is largely inefficient, humanized sensors are massively growing and companies adjacent to them. Nvidia defines them as models that predict future world states and actions. DreamZero see’s WAMs as a way to learn physical dynamics and generalize to unseen motions where standard VLAs can struggle. DreamDojo pushes the same direction, pretraining a robot world model on 44k hours of egocentric human video before small robot specific post training.
Trade expression: The better longs are the humanized sensor and data layer like smart glasses, body and wrist capture, machine vision components, labeling/filtering infrastructure and world model/synthetic data tooling. We’ve seen the adoption of smart glasses already with Meta/Ray ban glasses constantly getting viral clips. Essentially you’re long capture/data infrastructure vs. robot OEMs.
Counterpoints: Abundant human video is still not the same as robot supervision. Robot demonstrations are expensive and embodiment centred, since human videos typically lack aligned action labels and proprioceptive context. Meaning teleoperation probably gets compressed, not removed. WAM’s should reduce its relative important, but shorter term they still need alignment layers, embodiment bridges and robot specific post training.
2. EgoScale and Scaling Laws - EgoScale trained a VLA on 20k hours of action labeled egocentric human video, found a log linear scaling law between human data scale and validation loss, showed that validation loss strongly tracks downstream robot performance and reported a 54% average robot success improvement over no pretraining on a 22 DoF dexterous hand. This is the first serious evidence of predictable dexterity scaling.
Trade expression: Things like data acquisition, data refinement and representation enrichment. AoE proposes always on egocentric collection using smartphones plus cloud edge labelling, specifically to lower collection cost and expand scene coverage. ActiveMimic argues that a major missing signal in human video is active perception, camera motion that existing pipelines treat as noise and shows that modelling it can close majority of the gap to robot data pretraining. So the investable angle is not just “more hours” but cheaper capture + better auxiliary signals such as wrist views, head motion, gaze/camera motion and lightweight mid training for alignment. Nvidia is looking to combine WAMs and EgoScale scaling laws closely.
Counterpoints: It’s still early days and it’s important to not over extrapolate a few scaling papers into a confident moat. I haven’t gone deep enough down the rabbit hole yet but EgoScale still uses a two stage recipe with human pretraining plus aligned human robot mid training. Activemimic’s whole contribution is that egocentric pretraining had been underperforming robot data pretraining because critical signals were missing. Meaning the “durable” moat may end up being data cleaning, synchronization and representation engineering, not ownership of raw hours alone. | 1 265 |
| 13 | Finding your spark
One of, if not the most important trait as a trader is to remain optimistically curious.
New systems, frameworks, data, narratives, arbitrage, fundamentals etc are all downstream from becoming curious on a new way of doing things.
When coming back from extended time away or low read on the current environment, my only goal is to become infatuated with exciting ideas again.
Without that excitement, research and monitoring charts feels like a choir. The fact your brain is in a low frequency state means you are missing small details which compound on building a unique thesis for a specific idea.
E.g. a bottleneck in supply manufacturing has been unlocked/increase the current product capacity by >20% in efficiency, now creating 2nd and 3rd order effects for the industry as a whole.
This could be the memory wall where the gap between how fast AI chips can compute and how slowly they can fetch data from memory. Breaking it would unlock longer context windows and multimodal AI (2nd order), then enable continuous learning and trillion parameter models that dynamically activate only relevant parts per query (3rd order).
You can extrapolate this thinking to any sector and/or cross pollinate ideas from distant sectors where making these kind of connections aren’t as obvious = greater asymmetry. Example is Chris Camillo’s social arbitrage strategy.
It’s crucial that when you become curious and infatuated with an idea, you aren’t over estimating your knowledge on the topic. You must become a truth seeking machine, where you don't settle until you feel you have a final answer that's bulletproof to opposing views, due to deep research.
Conviction is often born from excitement, excitement is a strong emotion, strong emotions ruin risk management.
Considering the fact that this new born curiosity is coming off the tail end of inactivity in markets, your foresight for risk and having a balanced take on positive and negative variables is inhibited.
This is why I’ve spent so much time working on a system that prevents me from being spontaneous when initially coming back after low activity. Being a high conviction trader, I have a terrible habit of oversizing when I’m excited. I trade heavily on intuition and feel, again strong emotions, so my entire system needs to be centred on removing spontaneity.
I know in the right environment and with the right amount of screen time I can be very profitable. Everything up until that point is removing landmines that I might step on.
Find a system that lets you pay tuition to the market through small, progressive bets - without blowing up your portfolio before you've developed a profitable mindset. | 1 549 |
| 14 | Got stopped out.
Shouldn’t have been greedy and taken the 3% move I caught in just a few hours since I bottom ticked it. Liquidation cascades always go deeper than you usually expect and I should have had better process and screen time to realize this.
Overall been disappointed in my lack of discipline for trading and life in general these past several months.
I’ve felt I became very unstructured in my day to day life which has trickled over dramatically in my professionalism towards trading and making money.
It’s one thing to tell yourself to have a month break and go enjoy life/party/time away from the markets.
It’s another thing when you tell yourself you’re going to lock in and then do these activities anyway.
I’m perfectly happy to step away from markets when I feel I’m burnt out or have minimal interests in the way specific assets are trading. Although when you tell yourself you’re going to lock in and then aren’t putting in the necessary screen time, not only are you not moving towards your goals, but when the activities keeping you away from the markets are counter productive like partying, you’re not only sitting still but moving further away from your goals.
This is one of the most psychologically crushing aspects for my mindset when I tell myself I’m going to do something and I don’t do it. It eats away at my core knowing I’m not being honest with myself and staying disciplined to my own word.
Becoming a professional trader is about understanding your psyche to the deepest degree. Going against your discipline and word with yourself is putting cracks in the very foundation you stand on as a trader.
You begin subconsciously poking holes in your framework and edge as you’re showing yourself that you aren’t serious, that you don’t really care about the quality of process and dedication to one of the most competitive industries in the world.
It’s like a body builder eating pancakes and ice cream while preparing for Mr Olympia.
This lack of discipline has been a double edged sword for myself as I have the exact formula needed to make a comeback and become in tune with the market again. For those who’ve been in this channel for a while you’ll know how extensively I’ve spoken about becoming aware of your energy levels and building process and risk management regarding my read on the market.
My method has worked countless times and it’s tailored specifically to how my mind and body responds to my trading style.
This has caused over confidence in the fact that I don’t need to work as hard as I’m very talented and can manifest my desires through hard work quite easily. Which is a bad trap to fall into due to the fact that the more times I successfully do it, the less stress I have, except that stress is what makes me outperform in the first place.
The past several months has been a tug of war with my psyche in the sense that I have all the answers but the lack of will power to execute. I’ll have my foot on the gas for one month then the next month I become sloppy and stop putting the screen time, wondering why I’m not compounding results.
Based on previous instances, I normally need around one month of warming up, second month where I’m feeling quite confident and the third month is where I crank screen time to the max, where majority of my gains usually come from before repeating the cycle again.
Instead I’ve been slowly dying by death of a thousand paper cuts and letting ego take the wheel.
My focus moving forward is to turn the ship around by falling in love with the process again and letting my previous guidelines and frameworks abstract any chance of my ego and emotions overruling my decisions.
Sometimes obsession alone isn’t enough and you need to draw from toxic emotions like anger to truly spark the necessary change required. | 1 720 |
| 15 | Longed BTC @ 65.4k
High lev short term scalp.
Would be surprised if we break down further from here on first try. | 1 611 |
| 16 |  Still in $RKC.
Normally it’s unusual for myself to sit in a trade of this type for this long, although there’s too many interesting factors that have made me hold.
1. It’s been 9 days since the tokens launched and it’s still trading at a high value with consistent volume and mindshare. Distribution is also great.
2. RK still hasn’t changed his pfp back, I’m sure with his influence if he wanted to have customer support fix it he would have done so by now.
3. The CTO, Yokai and rest of the community have formed a cult like following and belief around this token. Truely feels like a GME style retardation that’s willing to relentlessly support. Something I haven’t seen in quite some time and feels like it’s brought in an external crowd from pure natives.
I added to my position at 4 mil when I saw we weren’t breaking down after the pvp vamp from bags. Typically you’d see memes like this have a bigger bleed to the downside after large attention catalysts but the fact this held so strong with the distribution and volume made me add to my holdings.
Along with the fact that BTC broke down and utility coins starting taking all the volume and attention over the last 4-7 days, while this has been one of the only memes holding value.
Most traders who come across this coin ask “why” or “how” it’s trading like this given the environment. That asymmetry is what makes this trade interesting as so many have written it off and can’t consider the “what if”.
What value do you attach to the first coin which was posted on the profile of the biggest retail trading celebrity of the past 6 years who still hasn’t changed his pfp back? What value do you give to the coin if he genuinely endorses or posts encrypted messaging for it like he’s done in the past?
These are genuine thought experiments and not me trying to cause you fomo, I’m continuing to ask myself the same questions.
At this stage this still isn’t a high conviction trade, yet. I just haven’t seen any opportunities which resemble the potential upside and reflexivity due to how ignored it is.
I try not to take pascal wagers as I’m more of a high conviction low volume trader, but every time I think about selling this coin I struggle to bring myself to doing so due to it’s lottery style nature. Which makes me think of how many other traders have similar mindsets.
Not recommending to tail me on this and if you do I’d size small due to low odds. Reason for this post is to explain how I’m seeing the current variables and looking for asymmetry onchain right now. | 2 233 |
| 17 | $RKC (7 mil)
This is the only coin I currently hold on the list. Initially had a really good entry then sized too much at higher prices and ruined it, so I derisked a little but still have enough that if he interacts in anyway I’ll be happy. Was very close to doing a dedicated post but odds of interaction were too low to do so.
Roaring Kitty’s account was “hacked” where he deleted the CA tweet, although he never changed his pfp back representing the coin. His brother was live on instagram and had a strange response when asked about the coin posted on his brothers account. I like coins which get a lot of hate/negative sentiment in the start then recurl upwards, catches so many offside and adds continuous fuel as people eventually come to terms with the thesis.
Normally I dislike buying coins which are dependant on a response from a large public figure, but the way this has played out is odd asI don’t see how his account would be hacked with his opsec. The fact his pfp hasn’t been changed back adds a lot more speculation for this trade which I wasn’t as confident on before realizing.
Not overly convicted and good chance he just never mentions it and slowly bleeds out. Although I grabbed a lottery ticket bag since there’s not many people who would move a coin more than RK if he interacts. He’s added billions in mcap to GME so on the very slight chance he does interact with this and address the coin/hack I think it could have a ton of pull.
The current CTO is looking really strong and you can feel something special forming around this coin and the lore. Invalidation is a change of RK’s pfp or just lose of interest over the coming days.
Only other project I’m in is the Bloomv4 Ponzi on base. Tldr is it’s a Sato + Upeg + Pandora combination and fixes some issues with exploits previously seen. There’s been good appetite so far for these style of plays. Still pretty early and the bonding curve is quite friendly for new mints and incentives holding.
Been really enjoying the volume over the past few days and actively looking for new gems. | 2 029 |
| 18 | Interesting Onchain Plays #3
$POD ($17 mil)
This is an AI inference and model network built by the team behind uncensored models used on Venice. The idea is turning idle GPU’s into a peer to peer pool inference network where nodes can freely join and leave without the rigid uptime requirements of traditional GPU rental systems.
Venice uses Dolphin’s models for all uncensored chat requests on its platform. So when users select unrestricted outputs on Venice, those requests route through POD models rather than Venice’s default stack.
Dolphins moat is the verification stack (proof of weights), which verifies nodes are actually running the correct AI models in memory rather than spoofing outputs. It positions itself as cheaper than centralized AI providers while routing all network revenue towards POD buybacks.
Inference plays are interesting and was one of the angles I was most excited about in during AI szn, had a big bag of REX. However the tooling and agent rails weren’t developed enough to build a moat around at that time. Now I think that’s changed and we’ll see some really interesting projects emerge in the coming months.
I’m not a buyer here although I’m using it as a proxy for appetite with utility/AI plays. Not overly priced here as float is only 11% though. Unfortunate I didn’t see it earlier on as I most likely would have sized. Will be on the look out for similar style plays.
$GOBLIN ($11 mil)
The lore stems from GPT 5.5 kept randomly inserting references to goblins, gremlins, trolls, ogres etc. Which Sama has leaned into and gave more insight into how their models kept hallucinating this language.
Goblin’s biggest bull case is Sama finally found a way to align with normal people and is getting a taste for being accepted online for the first time in his life through memes -> he leans into it more.
There’s lots of comparisons that Goblin to Sama is Asteroid to Elon. Out of the two I see Goblin being more asymmetric as frequency of interactions is much higher and Sam get positive reinforcement for the first time increases the likelihood he continues to try and gain popularity before IPO.
Two best outcomes: it becomes the name/mascot for openai’s new model and/or becomes a viral term (especially among the ai crowd) online.
I was very close to buying a good amount of this and holding, reason I didn’t is it felt too catalyst driven and at risk of opportunity cost. Maybe I will enter if right conditions take place but for now I’m more interested in catching new launches or higher conviction bags. | 1 577 |
| 19 | Overall bullish both majors and onchain for the first time in many months.
Most of us have been confused by the weakness in BTC relative to other assets. There’s a few points which I see this boiling down to:
⁃ Unclear if STRC bids maintain and continue, ETF front runners being caught offside
⁃ Saylor announcing to sell BTC, his purchasing is becoming risk for long term investors
⁃ Timing not aligning with 4 year cycle bottom (Q3/Q4 this year)
⁃ Quantum fears
⁃ Stocks producing altcoin esque returns, hot ball of money hasn’t had reason to rotate back (will do separate write up)
Crypto still hasn’t had its moment yet and is living in the shadows due to relative price of SPX, AI and semi’s. While we’ve still traded at a premium compared to SPX/Gold, if you’ve been around a couple cycles you know the price action and sentiment that comes when we have genuine outperformance.
Price leads fundamentals or as Taiki calls it “green candle therapy” is my basis. We all know why BTC should go up, markets just haven’t reflected it properly yet.
Up until the last couple days I’ve been trading perps on high leverage. I’ve been tempted to share calls here but since I’m using the entire leverage bar majority of the time, it doesn’t really feel responsible to share and encourage others to do the same considering how dangerous it is. Had many friends zero out doing this and all it takes is one bad day to start a spiral. Kept my trades and ideas to gc’s and friends lately.
Thankfully I’ve been fine and reading trades well, although perps can drive even the strongest soldiers to borderline insanity. Since onchain is the best it’s looked in multiple months I’ll be transferring majority of my time back to the arena.
Why am I bullish onchain?
⁃ New 8 fig runners in 24-48 hours
⁃ Old onchain tokens doing several x's and trading into high 8/low 9 figs
⁃ Basket of good alts looking extremely bottomed and curling up
⁃ Sentiment basically dead and majority washed out
⁃ Haven't had any positive catalyst/narratives for several months
⁃ Tech/ai/semi's/spx on highs, there's plenty of money in the system, crypto just hasn't given people a reason to bid it
Normally we only get one or two of these points but the fact we have so many, especially a mix of different coins performing, means markets feel overall bottomed and looking for reasons to go up.
Recent meme performers:
$DOGE, $FARTCOIN, $ASTEROID, $TROLL, $AURA, $WOJAK, $NEET, $GOBLIN, $TRIPLET, $BUTTCOIN, $HANTA
Recent utility performers:
$VVV, $HYPE, $ZEC, $BIO, $POD, $OCT, $CAS, $PAYAI, $GITLAWB, $LOOP
Nothing I’m highly convicted on yet and mostly scalping new tokens to improve execution and read. Memes obviously leading the charge like they always do off the bottom. Expecting utility to pick up once we’re 90k> BTC.
Current positions:
Lev long BTC @ 80.6k. Confident 79k was the bottom on LTF’s, if we lose that I think it would change dynamics considerably. No onchain positions for now.
Really glad to see some light at the end of the tunnel. Tbh even I was doubting if onchain would get some form of marginal bid again, the last couple days have proved that under the right conditions this still stands as the best casino in the world.
Won’t be taking it for granted and my screen time will be up and to the right for the foreseeable future. | 1 735 |
| 20 | Closed BTC long @ 75.3k
Played the cards right and got the additional fill at 73.5k.
Overall great trade and made up for the profits I round tripped over the weekend.
Now that Strc’s bid is gone, BTC’s dynamics moving forward will look quite different and we should expect it to react to events differently.
Reason for close is I don’t have a great read on where we trade over the coming days. Was expecting a slightly bigger move from Strc’s final raise day but maybe it plays out like last month and Saylor’s going to swap over multiple days for better execution?
Going flat for now until I have a better read on where the next trend will form on LTF’s. Right now direction feels like a coin flip, never good to be in positions if that’s your basis.
Seeing some recent news of physical escalation in the ME and foggy sentiment from ceasefire positioning. Even though I said people don’t care about the war and its having diminishing returns, the fact there seems to be large aircraft carriers and underground missile reserves heading towards conflict zones is rather concerning.
Will continue looking for catalysts with early execution. Trying to be extra patient as I’m starting to feel a little burnout from excessive screen time the past couple weeks.
Not having a trade on can be a good mental reset if you’ve been trading in high volume and gives you a fresher perspective on direction, the skill is to be patient and not fire on low confidence positions. | 0 |
