Snipers Den

Here's a more condensed post if you care to read

Sorry guys this was an unedited draft and its all over the entire place

If I am going to size into a meme and hold through its volatility, I want to be able to construct a credible path to a potential 7-8 figure PNL. I have also made enough mistakes to understand that conviction is not certainty but I have also spent enough time in this market to know what the setups that changed my life had in common and right now, BATON currently reminds me of that framework more than anything else in the market. I hope we all win 🫡

4. The meta matters as much as the coin. A great coin can be trapped inside yesterday’s narrative. SPX6900 is a great meme. FARTCOIN, BONK and WIF are great memes. But markets rotate and liquidity moves. What worked explosively in the previous cycles does not necessarily offer the same asymmetry in the next one. My view is that custom pairs are one of the most important metas of this cycle and are still in their early innings. I also think the most interesting expression of this meta is ultimately with altcoins rather than stocks. $AI worked partly because the NVIDIA pairing was novel but there is a structural limitation with pairing memes to gigantic trillion dollar public companies. Even $100m of NVIDIA-linked accumulation is irrelevant relative to NVIDIA’s scale unlike a mid-cap. If a meme community directs $10m, $20m or $50m worth of economic attention toward a midcap, suddenly the community can become meaningful relative to the shareholder base and the company itself may notice. That is why some of the most interesting management interactions we have seen in this meta have all involved mid-cap companies rather than mega-caps. If I wanted long-term exposure to a stock custom pair, something like $BONER would probably interest me more than an NVIDIA pair, although I currently have no exposure. But I still think alt pairs offer the cleanest structure. And within that universe, PUMP stands out because unlike most altcoins, you can actually attempt to value the underlying business of Pumpfun. ZEC, NEAR and many others can certainly run, but determining whether they are fundamentally cheap is much more subjective because sentiment and monetary premium drive so much of their value. PUMP is different cos it generates revenue and that gives you something concrete to anchor the thesis to. 5. Perpetual memetics matter. The best memes should remain understandable and relevant across cycles. They should not require you to explain an obscure 2026 narrative five years from now. $USELESS probably has one of the strongest examples of this. People will probably always describe memecoins as useless. And there is only one meme whose entire identity is explicitly built around that criticism. That gives the meme an unusually durable cultural hook. I don't currently own any, but it is the sort of asset where I understand the argument for slowly accumulating over a very long period. $BATON has a different kind of perpetual memetic quality because its identity is attached to what I consider one of the most systemically important companies in Web3. For Baton to lose relevance, then PUMP has to also lose relevance. What makes $Baton also special is that the alignment goes even deeper than just a reflective PUMP meme. Pump.fun does not merely happen to be another crypto company but a company whose entire business lives and breathes memecoins. Thats what makes $Baton so special. A meme tied to some random Layer 1 ultimately depends on that chain continuing to care about memes. Pumpfun cannot stop caring about memes ever hence BATON is culturally attached not only to a successful crypto company, but to a company whose continued relevance is intrinsically linked to the continued relevance of memecoins themselves. That is a very unusual alignment that we have never seen. I spent weeks reassessing the market, reviewing my prior mistakes and thinking about what I actually wanted from my next high-conviction position. I arrived at a simple but interesting framework: Strong community. Clear catalysts. Relevant meta. Understandable underlying. Durable memetics. Enough asymmetry to justify sitting through brutal volatility. and kept looking for a meme that checked these boxes until i found Baton. When I eventually found it, I was genuinely surprised by how low the market cap still was. I watched the community for weeks, set my bids, and accumulated roughly 1.5% of supply around the $1.2m–$1.3m MC range. These days, I have very little interest in buying something simply because I think it can 2-5x.

My honest thoughts: I’ve made a 7-figure PnL five times ever and in all five times, it came from coins I held through serious volatility. And all five times, I was underwater at some point. That has probably been the most important lesson of my trading career: nothing life-changing comes easy. If it were easy, everyone would be at 7 figs. It takes a ridiculous amount of conviciton and delusion to hold something through volatility up until 7 figures. Prior now, i didn't have the balls to hold through the volatility and just threw my conviciton plays in an untouchable wallet so im not tempted to sell but right now i am more experienced and i think social trading has made it better. You do not need to beat the market every day. You do not need to predict every candle nor be in every dailyt runner. Scalping is fine if that is your edge but the truly asymmetric outcomes usually come from identifying something early, sizing conviction appropriately, and surviving the volatility long enough for the thesis to play out without paying attention to the charts. These are the five biggest lessons I have learnt from those seven-figure trades. 1. Violent moves happen when enough people simply refuse to sell. For that to happen, a community usually needs something bigger than a chart. It needs a mission. And ideally, that mission should be sufficiently delusional. SPX6900 talks about flipping the stock market. Do I think that literally happens? Probably not. But the goal itself creates identity, belief and something for holders to anchor to. $CATE wants to flip DOGE. $BATON is trying to become a meaningful percentage of $PUMP’s market cap while the broader PUMP thesis itself is that it eventually flips Hyperliquid to become the most valuable company in Web3. Whether these goals ultimately happen is almost secondary but the point is that great meme communities need a destination and without one, everyone eventually becomes a seller. 2. Conviction needs catalysts. Delusion alone is not enough, there still needs to be a sequence of events capable of continually renewing attention and giving rational holders reasons to remain in the trade. That is one reason BATON interests me. It is still early in the custom-pair experiment and has barely scratched the surface of listings and distribution etc Most importantly, it is yet to experience a full PUMP repricing to Hyperliquid level at the minimum. PUMP currently generates greater revenue than Hyperliquid while trading at 1/10th of its valuation. That screams undervalued so for BATON, there are still several obvious milestones ahead. The three milestones I am watching most closely are: PUMP reclaiming ATH. PUMP killing another zero. PUMP eventually challenging Hyperliquid for the highest MC posiiton in the whole of Web3. If the relationship between PUMP and BATON is real, those are the moments where the thesis should become increasingly visible. 3. Know who you are holding with. This lesson cost me a lot of money. Who you choose to go to battle with matters enormously to me In the past, I would accumulate 1–2% of a token and spend all my time thinking about my position while paying almost no attention to who controlled a meaningful part of the other 98%. That was a grave mistake. A great thesis means very little if your buying simply becomes exit liquidity for farmers. Now I care deeply about holder composition. With both $BATON and $CATE, I can identify a meaningful percentage of supply held by people I understand reasonably well. I can tell you who holds what up to 20% for each. These are people i know and understand how they trade and think. More importantly, these are people genuinely committed to seeing the thesis through

PvE

Call me rick ross the way I love pairs

Pump.fun obviously can’t tell you what to buy but will give you the signs. Your job is simply to notice them before everyone else does.

Its no longer a soft-shill of where they want the most attention headed. Couldn't be any more obvious

Bringing this back up

Conviction is such a crazy thing cos Baton was down 95% and was left for dead before i saw what nobody else was seeing and made the trade.

$200m+ waiting room.

The reason this $baton example was worded this way is cos they're indirectly telling you to pay attention to the $Pump pairs. Thats what benefits Pumpfun the most. This was a carefully crafted message approved by Alon. It wasn't in error

Congrats in advance boys, we've retired.

Coin of the cycle