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https://x.com/TheCryptoData The Inner Circle is where I share my thought process on the overall market, including technical analysis, altcoins, and narrative rotations 💎 Nothing shared is financial/investment advice and should not be taken as such.
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📊 Market Update 📊
Happy Easter! ✝️❤️🐣
There have been a lot of developments over the past 12 hours as everyone waits for Trump's deadline to approach Monday/Tuesday. Trump confirmed the missing F-15E crew member was rescued from inside the mountains of Iran, and also stated that "Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran. There will be nothing like it!" He told the Wall Street Journal the US will destroy "every power plant" and "every bridge standing" in Iran if Hormuz isn't opened by Tuesday. Then, barely hours later, he told Fox News: "I think there is a good chance tomorrow, they are negotiating now." He said Iran's negotiators are "close" and that he's granted them "immunity from death." With that said, the market has to process these signals simultaneously. Behind the scenes, Axios also revealed that VP Vance and Iran's parliament speaker Qalibaf are leading indirect talks mediated by Pakistan's military chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir. This further proves my point of remaining patient over the next few days as volatility will continue to be at ATHs.
Key News Events
- Trump posted a cryptic follow-up: "Tuesday, 8:00 P.M. Eastern Time!" with no further details. This appears to be the hard deadline for infrastructure strikes to begin if Hormuz isn't reopened, replacing the vaguer April 6th deadline with a specific timestamp on April 7th.
- Oman's foreign ministry confirmed it met with Iranian officials Saturday to discuss "possible options for ensuring the smooth flow of transit through the Strait of Hormuz." Both sides presented "visions and proposals that will be studied." This is the Iran-Oman protocol developing in real time and it's the most concrete Hormuz negotiation mechanism that exists.
- Pakistan says mediation is "right on track." But two sources involved in the talks told Axios that mediators are still trying to get the parties to meet directly with "little success" and Iran has "rejected any proposal for a temporary ceasefire."
Upcoming Events
- Apr 6th - Trump's 48-hour ultimatum expires.
- Apr 7th - Trump's stated "Power Plant Day, Bridge Day" if no deal. "8:00 PM Eastern Time" deadline.
Summary ✍️
As we approach tomorrow's deadline set by Trump, a few things seem different this time around. First, the US lost two aircraft this week, which is a humiliation that demands response. Second, Trump has publicly committed to "Power Plant Day" on Tuesday with a specific 8:00 PM timestamp, which is far more concrete than any previous threat. Third, Graham saying he's "completely convinced" Trump will use force after speaking with him directly carries weight because Graham has been one of the strongest war hawks. Against all of that, Trump simultaneously telling Fox News that Iran is "close" to a deal and that there's "a good chance tomorrow" suggests he's leaving room for a last-minute agreement. This is further reason to remain patient during this time and have your stops in place and leverage low.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC's daily chart does look fairly bullish here as the RSI and StochRSI are crossing above their moving average. This makes sense considering the seriousness of Trump's comments this time around and the urgency for a negotiation Monday. Although the lower timeframes are becoming overbought so I would like to see a slight retracement to $67k before higher to line everything up. Major support remains 66k, 62.8k, 60k, 55k, and 48k while major resistance remains 68k, 70.8k, 72.8k, 76-78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH's daily candle looks very strong atm with a bullish hammer candle (typically signaling reversals). Its RSI is also crossing above its moving average while its StochRSI is starting to bounce off of the 50 level. It's also close to crossing above its 50 EMA on the 4h which will provide a nice impulse move higher if confirmed. Major support remains 2000, 1940, 1830, 1720-1760, and 1540, while major resistance remains 2100, 2200, 2380, 2550, 2750-2820.
🚨 NEW SERIES — RISK MANAGEMENT MASTERCLASS (Lesson 1)
Most traders don’t lose because of bad entries, they lose because they don’t understand risk.
In Lesson 1, I break down the foundation of risk management, which is the skill that determines whether you survive or blow up.
🎥 Watch the full lesson here:
https://youtu.be/k1UyGqMV5H0
📈 In this lesson you’ll learn:
• Why most traders lose money
• The fundamentals of risk management
• How to protect your capital
• The mindset required to survive
This is Lesson 1 of a FREE 6-part masterclass. New lessons drop every 2 days.
👇 Comment:
Have you ever blown an account before?
🚨 DAILY ALPHA BRIEF IS LIVE
Here’s what I covered today:
• ETF flows
• Liquidation clusters building
• Heatmap showing where price is drawn next
• Full TA on BTC, ETH, SOL
• Macro breakdown (US / Iran + Trump impact)
• Why risk is increasing short-term (Apr 6th deadline)
👉 Watch the full breakdown + stay ahead:
https://youtu.be/26MOMYRSbqw?si=24EJLzoIHli_F7D5
If you’re serious about trading this cycle, you already know where to be.
🚨 NEW VIDEO — TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MASTERCLASS (Lesson 8 — FINAL)
This is where everything comes together.
In Lesson 8, I show you how to build your own trading strategy by combining structure, indicators, risk management, and psychology into a complete system.
This is what turns knowledge into actual results.
🎥 Watch Lesson 8 here
https://youtu.be/YihppKye_5c?si=jBIKU3IWkZyQlDOQ
📈 In this lesson you’ll learn:
• How to build a complete trading system
• How to combine everything from the course
• How to structure high-probability trades
• How to create your own edge in the market
This is the final lesson of the FREE 8-part masterclass.
If you’ve watched the full series, you now have the foundation most traders never build.
👇 After watching, comment on the video:
What is your biggest takeaway from this entire course?
Over the last 2 weeks inside Data’s Alpha Circle, we closed 10+ winning trades across BTC, ETH, SOL, altcoins, and even stocks, both long and short.
I just dropped a full breakdown covering:
• Liquidation levels & heatmaps
• BTC, ETH, SOL technical analysis
• ETF flows (Bitcoin & Ethereum)
• Macro impact (US–Iran situation)
• Polymarket probabilities
• What’s setting up NEXT
If you want to understand how these moves happen and where the market is heading next, watch this:
🎥 https://youtu.be/HYlQJoKpfwg?si=kYnWLcw8swuvgCLb
Most traders react late. We position early.
👉 Get access to real-time entries, targets, and the next setups before they happen:
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+2
📊 Market Update 📊
Trump addressed the nation last night and caused the market to give back all of the gains it had this week. "Over the next two to three weeks, we're going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong." He said the US is "getting very close" but would hit Iran "extremely hard." We had oil immediately reverse on this news above $100 which will likely continue as things escalate. This is the last trading day before Good Friday and the market is heading into a three-day weekend with escalation rhetoric back to front and center, so expect volatility to be near all-time highs. Bank of America warned that oil will stay at $100/barrel through the rest of 2026, meaning slower growth and higher inflation are now the base case.
Key News Events
- Defense Secretary Hegseth confirmed that Iran launched fewer projectiles in the past 24 hours than at any point since the war began, suggesting Iran's offensive capability is degrading rapidly. But Trump's response was to escalate rhetoric rather than capitalize on the military advantage for diplomacy. The "stone ages" language is the most aggressive since "obliterate" three weeks ago.
- Iranian President Pezeshkian told the EU Council president that Iran has "the necessary will to end this war" but expects guarantees. This was the first crack in Iran's public stance and it fueled the two-day rally. Trump's speech essentially slammed the door shut on that opening by threatening maximum escalation in the same breath as claiming progress.
- Trump said in a Truth Social post Wednesday morning that Iran's president asked for a ceasefire, but he'd only consider it when the Strait of Hormuz is "open, free, and clear."
- Bank of America projects oil at $100/barrel through the remainder of 2026, leading to slower growth and higher inflation for the rest of the year.
Upcoming Events
Apr 3rd - March nonfarm payrolls.
Apr 6th - Trump's extended deadline for Iran energy strikes.
Summary ✍️
If oil prices remain high throughout the year, it means inflation stays elevated, the Fed can't cut, and earnings estimates across every sector need to come down. Tomorrow's payrolls number is critical. If it's negative again, the recession narrative takes hold going into the April 6th deadline. If it surprises positive, then it provides us a floor. Either way, we're heading into a long weekend with zero clarity on whether the war is ending or escalating. Keep leverage at absolute minimum and protect your capital. There is no edge in trading headline risk, so exercise patience and only execute when your S/R lines and indicators are in confluence at significant levels.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC had a larger pullback than expected after Trump's speech, indicating the war will last much longer than expected. The daily RSI is currently rejecting off of its signal line while the StochRSI is starting to level out. On the bright side, the 4h StochRSI is becoming oversold as we're starting to approach major support near 66k. As long as the daily closes above 65.5k, I remain bullish. Otherwise I would look for the next low at 62.8k. Major support remains 66k, 62.8k, 60k, 55k, and 48k while major resistance remains 68k, 70.8k, 72.8k, 76-78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH rejected again off of its 50D EMA as it heads towards its next support of 2000. The RSI and StochRSI are starting to look bearish so I would expect further retracement to major support then reassess how price rejected, considering the lower timeframes are approaching oversold, similar to BTC. Major support remains 2000, 1940, 1830, 1720-1760, and 1540, while major resistance remains 2100, 2200, 2380, 2550, 2750-2820.
🔒 Join Data’s Alpha Circle: https://whop.com/datas-alpha-circle/gain-access-now
Recent Wins 💰
HYPE → +231% (TP2 Hit)
TAO → +102%
BTC → +82%
ETH → 68%
🚨 NEW VIDEO — TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MASTERCLASS (Lesson 7)
Most traders don’t fail because of strategy, they fail because of emotions.
In Lesson 7, I break down trading psychology and how to control fear, greed, and impulsive decisions so you can actually execute your strategy consistently.
This is what separates profitable traders from everyone else.
🎥 Watch Lesson 7 here
https://youtu.be/R4RC0PwIn-w
📈 In this lesson you’ll learn:
• How emotions impact your trading
• How to stay disciplined under pressure
• The most common psychological mistakes
• How to think like a professional trader
This is Lesson 7 of a FREE 8-part masterclass. New lessons drop every 2 days.
👇 After watching, comment on the video:
What emotion hurts your trading the most: fear or greed?
🚨 Most Traders Are About To Get This Wrong
We’ve already positioned.
BTC, ETH, SOL + alts are approaching a critical move driven by:
• Liquidity shifts
• Macro tension (US–Iran)
• Large liquidation clusters
This is where people get trapped.
Full breakdown just dropped:
🎥 https://youtu.be/BcBL_uOW6Jg?si=QgHHkRcVA8JEwHT2
Inside Data’s Alpha Circle:
✔️ Real-time trades (spot + leverage)
✔️ 16+ live sessions/month
✔️ Proprietary indicators
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🚨 NEW VIDEO — MARKET UPDATE
We called the recent BTC & ETH shorts and caught strong moves across HYPE, TAO + alts.
Now the market is setting up for the NEXT big move.
In this breakdown I cover:
• BTC, ETH & SOL key levels
• Liquidity + high-probability setups
• Macro catalysts moving the market
• Where smart money is positioning
No noise. Just execution.
🎥 Watch here: https://youtu.be/6qrYKnSMTIc?si=j-9ksuMNgUjhGgrq
🚨 NEW VIDEO — TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MASTERCLASS (Lesson 6)
In Lesson 6, I break down risk management + leverage, including how to protect your capital, avoid liquidation, and actually stay in the game long enough to win.
This is the difference between blowing accounts vs compounding them.
🎥 Watch Lesson 6 here
https://youtu.be/VEMBE1aAXEc?si=SFoN27_7j6WV0gax
📈 In this lesson you’ll learn:
• How to manage risk properly
• How leverage actually works
• How to avoid getting liquidated
• The rules every trader must follow
This is Lesson 6 of a FREE 8-part masterclass! New lessons drop every 2 days.
👇 After watching, comment on the video:
Do you currently use proper risk management on every trade?
🚨 DAILY ALPHA BRIEF IS LIVE
Here’s what I covered today:
• ETF outflows hitting BTC & ETH hard
• Liquidation clusters building
• Heatmap showing where price is drawn next
• Full TA on BTC, ETH, SOL
• Macro breakdown (US / Iran + Trump impact)
• Why risk is increasing short-term
Meanwhile inside Data’s Alpha Circle:
✅ Called the TAO short
✅ Caught BTC downside
✅ Positioned on ETH weakness
👉 Watch the full breakdown + stay ahead:
https://youtu.be/LID8yZnTwlE?si=SZOAE8dOA7MIIZJw
If you’re serious about trading this cycle, you already know where to be.
🚨 TAO SHORT SMASHED — +102.38% 🚨
TP1 hit clean ✅
Stops moved to breakeven → risk-free trade
This is exactly how we operate inside Data’s Alpha Circle:
→ Structured entries
→ Clear invalidations
→ Scale out + protect capital
→ Let winners pay you
📉 We’ve been consistently catching high-probability SHORTS on BTC & ETH as well while most traders are stuck fighting the trend.
👉 Join here: https://whop.com/datas-alpha-circle/gain-access-now/
🚨 NEW VIDEO — TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MASTERCLASS (Lesson 5)
In Lesson 5, I break down trend analysis + market structure, including how traders identify direction, avoid bad trades, and position themselves with the market instead of against it.
This is one of the most important skills in trading.
🎥 Watch Lesson 5 here
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MRfsjvvzxc
📈 In this lesson you’ll learn:
• How to identify market trends
• What market structure actually means
• How to avoid trading against the trend
• How to improve your entries and timing
This is Lesson 5 of a FREE 8-part masterclass! New lessons drop every 2 days.
👇 After watching, comment on the video:
Do you struggle more with identifying trends or timing entries?
📊 Market Update 📊
We saw more volatility as the conflicting ceasefire headlines continue. Iran's Press TV published a five-point counteroffer to US's 15-point peace plan demanding formal sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, war reparations, a complete end to all hostilities including against "resistance groups," and concrete guarantees against future attacks. A US official called the conditions "ridiculous and unrealistic." Despite this, Iran's FM Araghchi clarified that messages exchanged through mediators "does not mean negotiations with the US" which just adds to the back-and-forth.
Key News Events
- Iran launched an attack that sparked a massive fire at Kuwait International Airport on Wednesday while simultaneously continuing strikes on Israel and Gulf states. At least 1,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne are deploying to the Middle East in the coming days. The paratroopers are trained to jump into hostile or contested areas to secure territory and airfields, which raises the question of whether a Kharg Island ground operation is being prepared.
- Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesperson confirmed "absolutely" that Iran is charging ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Gold rallied 3% on Wednesday on renewed optimism that central banks could eventually cut rates if oil prices ease. Gold had shed over 20% since the war began and posted its worst week since 1983. The bounce suggests last week's selloff was partially a liquidity event rather than a fundamental repricing of the safe-haven narrative.
- Senators reportedly reached an agreement on crypto market structure legislation language to settle a dispute within the CLARITY Act, per CNBC Crypto World.
Upcoming Events
- Friday Mar 28th - Trump's 5-day pause expires. Binary outcome: extension/deal or strikes resume.
- TBD - March CPI (mid-April). Hormuz physical reopening timeline. Senate CLARITY Act markup.
Summary ✍️
We continue to follow the cycle of hope, rejection, repeat. Monday we surged on "productive talks." Tuesday we gave it back when the 82nd Airborne deployment dropped. Wednesday we bounced again on the 15-point plan, then faded when Iran rejected it. Every rally gets sold and every selloff gets bought, leaving us in a range that nobody can trade with conviction. Iran's five-point counteroffer demanding sovereignty over Hormuz and war reparations is a maximalist position that no US administration would accept, which tells us Tehran is not close to a deal. The fact that Iranian officials are telling mediators they believe the diplomacy is a front for military escalation means the trust deficit is widening, not narrowing. Friday is two days away, so if Trump extends the pause again, we get another week of this choppy range. If he doesn't, and strikes on Iran's power grid begin, the entire energy complex reprices upward and equities take another leg down. As always, manage risk accordingly, keep leverage low, and wait for confluence before taking positions.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC rejected from its 50D EMA while breaking below support at 70.8k as the 4h StochRSi formed bearish divergence. Now we have the Daily RSI rejecting off of its signal line and the StochRSI curving to the downside as well. If we continue lower, I would looks for longs between 67-68k, otherwise, I'm waiting for a reclaim and close above 70.8k. Major support remains 68k, 66k, 62.8k, 60k, 55k, and 48k while major resistance remains 70.8k, 72.8k, 76-78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH played out the exact same scenario as BTC (rejecting off of its 50D EMA while its RSI rejects off of its signal line and StochRSI crosses to the downside). The difference here is ETH is much closer to its next support of 2100. If it closes below that, I would wait until 2000 for a long. Otherwise, I'd like to see 2200 reclaimed for continuation higher. Major support remains 2100, 2000, 1940, 1830, 1720-1760, and 1540, while major resistance remains 2200, 2380, 2550, 2750-2820.
🚨 NEW VIDEO — TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MASTERCLASS (Lesson 4)
Most traders rely on indicators, but use them completely wrong.
In Lesson 4, I break down indicators + oscillators, including how to actually use tools like RSI and MACD to confirm trends, measure momentum, and avoid false signals.
🎥 Watch Lesson 4 here
https://youtu.be/EgISMjOHF4g?si=vtRI0bHVIEnnXIPv
📈 In this lesson you’ll learn:
• Which indicators actually matter
• How to use RSI & MACD properly
• How to confirm trends and momentum
• How to avoid common indicator mistakes
This is Lesson 4 of a FREE 8-part masterclass! New lessons drop every 2 days.
👇 After watching, comment on the video:
What indicators do you currently use the most?
📊 Market Update 📊
The war may tone down a little after Trump announced a 5-day pause on strikes against Iran's energy infrastructure. Now the question is whether the 5-day pause has substance or is political theater. Not surprisingly, Iran denied any communication with Trump, and Fars News Agency went further, claiming Trump "retreated after hearing that our targets would be all power plants in West Asia." But the market is choosing to accept Trump's words for now, and more importantly, oil is holding its losses. The key test is whether crude creeps back up through the week as the March 28th deadline approaches, or whether the "diplomacy discount" holds. We also have the S&P Global PMI data dropping this morning, providing the first real-time read on how the war is affecting the US economy.
Key News Events
- The IDF confirmed it is continuing strikes on Tehran despite Trump's pause announcement, underscoring that the US pause on energy infrastructure strikes does not mean a broader ceasefire. Israel is operating on its own timeline. Iran also continued attacks on Gulf neighbors through Monday. The physical conflict has not stopped; only the threat to power plants has been deferred.
- Schwab's market analysis noted that rate cut odds have collapsed from 95% a month ago to around 5%, while futures now price nearly 40% probability of at least one hike in 2026. A 2-year Treasury auction today could be critical; further demand weakness would push yields even higher and tighten financial conditions further.
- BlackRock CEO Larry Fink urged investors to stay invested, arguing that timing markets during turmoil has "historically delivered far stronger returns." He also published his annual letter arguing tokenized assets and digital wallets will "do for Wall Street what the internet did to mail."
- Michael Saylor's 'Strategy' to raise $42 billion to purchase more Bitcoin.
Upcoming Events
- Mar 24th - S&P Global Manufacturing/Services PMI
- Friday Mar 28th - Trump's 5-day pause expires.
Summary ✍️
Looking at the overnight markets, it seems they're treating Trump's pause as a genuine off-ramp, not just a head fake. We have Asia rallying after Monday morning's selloff which is a powerful signal that global risk appetite is trying to reset, but there's still a lot of uncertainty. Iran is not acknowledging any talks. Israel is still bombing Tehran. Oil is still a third higher than pre-war levels. Rate cuts are dead and hikes are being priced. The damage already done to the economy doesn't reverse with a 5-day pause in one specific category of strikes. We also have Goldman's recession probability at 30%, PPI at 0.7%, gas up 34% in a month, and the Dow approaching correction. The PMI data this morning will be the first hard evidence of whether the war is actually hitting economic activity or whether the damage is still mostly contained to energy prices and financial markets. A weak manufacturing print would confirm the stagflation thesis that the bond market has been pricing. A strong print and the relief rally continues. This is the time to be patient and set your stops accordingly.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC is currently at major resistance just below 70.8k. The RSI is just below its signal line while the StochRSI just tapped oversold. The lower timeframes show overbought so I would wait for a reset on those at the very least and would like to see 70.8k be reclaimed as support before feeling confident in a long. Major support remains 68k, 66k, 62.8k, 60k, 55k, and 48k while major resistance remains 70.8k, 72.8k, 76-78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH is in a similar position, below resistance of 2200 (coincident with the 50D EMA), but still above support at 2100. Its indicators are similar to BTC, so I would prefer a pullback to 2100 at the very least to get the lower timeframes reset before considering a long, or a reclaim above 2200 and retest as support. Major support remains 2100, 2000, 1940, 1830, 1720-1760, and 1540, while major resistance remains 2200, 2380, 2550, 2750-2820.
🚨 NEW WEEKLY MARKET OVERVIEW IS LIVE!
We’re at a point where the market can expand aggressively or completely roll over.
If you’re not positioned correctly here, you’re going to get caught on the wrong side.
🎥 Watch the full breakdown here:
https://youtu.be/goQe_22T2o0?si=u5xgxdq4lcp_gV4K
📊 In this video I cover:
• The EXACT state of the market right now (no guesswork)
• Key levels that will decide the next major move
• Where smart money is positioning
• Bull vs Bear scenario (and what confirms each)
• How I’m personally approaching this week
After you watch, drop a comment:
👉 Bullish or Bearish this week?
🚨 NEW VIDEO — TECHNICAL ANALYSIS MASTERCLASS (Lesson 3)
Most traders look at candles but don’t actually understand what they mean.
In Lesson 3, I break down candlestick patterns, including how to read price action, spot reversals, and understand what the market is really telling you.
This is where trading starts to “click” for most people.
🎥 Watch Lesson 3 here:
https://youtu.be/b6D2xrCyC3c?si=pvpX5badHQNJX-eI
📈 In this lesson you’ll learn:
• The most important candlestick patterns
• How to read market sentiment from candles
• How to spot reversals early
• How to avoid common beginner mistakes
This is Lesson 3 of a FREE 8-part masterclass! New lessons drop every 2 days.
👇 After watching, comment on the video:
Do you currently use candlestick patterns in your trading?
+1
📊 Market Update 📊
We saw market tensions continue to rise as Iraq declared force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields because it can no longer ship crude through Hormuz, and CBS reported the Pentagon is preparing to deploy ground forces into Iran. We also had the Trump administration considering plans to occupy/blockade Kharg Island, stating they "need about a month to weaken the Iranians more with strikes." Trump rejected a ceasefire outright on Friday, saying he doesn't want one, which could definitely escalate things moving forward. This caused oil to spike above $110 and question the expectation of an inflation cut this year.
Key News Events
- Iran threatened to target "parks, recreational areas and tourist destinations" worldwide, raising concerns Tehran may revert to militant attacks beyond the Middle East. The IRGC also disputed Netanyahu's claim that Iran's navy is sunk and its missile production destroyed, insisting "we are producing missiles even during war conditions."
- Iraq declared force majeure on all foreign-operated oilfields Friday, the most significant supply-side escalation since the strait closed. Baghdad said it cannot ship crude through Hormuz, effectively confirming that Iraqi exports are now largely offline.
- The Trump administration is considering occupying or blockading Kharg Island. A White House source: "We need about a month to weaken the Iranians more." A retired Rear Admiral warned seizure wouldn't work since "they're going to turn off the spigot on the other end." Sending troops continues to be a hot topic.
- An F-35 fighter jet made an emergency landing after a combat mission over Iran, believed to have been hit by Iranian fire. If confirmed, it would be the first successful Iranian attack on a US aircraft since the war started.
Upcoming Events
TBD - Kharg Island operation (~1 month timeline). Hormuz escort mission. March CPI.
Summary ✍️
Iraq's force majeure is the headline that changes the math for every energy model moving forward. It's not a shipping disruption anymore, it's a major OPEC producer formally declaring it cannot export oil. Iraq was producing roughly 4.5M bpd before the war and exporting 3.3M through Hormuz. That volume is now legally and physically offline. Combined with the existing Hormuz closure, Fujairah attacks, and Kuwait refinery strikes, the Gulf's exportable capacity has been reduced by a staggering amount. The IEA's "largest supply disruption in history" assessment from two weeks ago is now dramatically worse. Goldman's warning that markets haven't priced in enough risk premium is the institutional consensus forming in real time. This continues to affect the Tradfi space as the S&P has erased six months of gains. We also have the Kharg Island seizure speculation. If 2,200 Marines land on Iranian territory, the war crosses from an air campaign into a ground war. That's a different conflict entirely, one that markets aren't remotely priced for. This weekend will continue to be volatile so manage your risk accordingly and keep leverage low.
📊 BTC Analysis 📊
BTC is currently at major resistance just below 70.8k. The RSI is just below its signal line while the StochRSI is getting closer to oversold. The lower timeframes show overbought so I would wait for a reset on those at the very least and would like to see 70.8k be reclaimed as support before feeling confident in a long. Major support remains 68k, 66k, 62.8k, 60k, 55k, and 48k while major resistance remains 70.8k, 72.8k, 76-78k, 84.5k, 86.7k, and 90k.
📊 ETH Analysis 📊
ETH is in a similar position, below resistance of 2200 (coincident with the 50D EMA). Its indicators are similar to BTC, so I would prefer a pullback to 2100 at the very least to get the lower timeframes reset before considering a long, or a reclaim above 2200 and retest as support. The resiliency on all assets is impressive, so now it's seeing if they can maintain that relative strength over the weekend. Major support remains 2100, 2000, 1940, 1830, 1720-1760, and 1540, while major resistance remains 2200, 2380, 2550, 2750-2820.
💰 SOL SHORT PRINTED 💰
Closed a clean SOL short inside Data’s Alpha Circle.
This is exactly what we cover in Lesson 1 of the Technical Analysis Masterclass (linked below). Learning how to read charts, follow structure, and trust price over opinions.
📉 Why it worked:
• Clear structure
• Key level respect
• Letting price lead
Most traders miss this because they haven’t built the foundation.
If you’re serious, start from Lesson 1 and follow the full series.
🎥 Watch here:
https://youtu.be/0pI-AxlS4TM?si=lnQ0KXXGg1C0mUnh
🔒 Join Data’s Alpha Circle:
https://whop.com/datas-alpha-circle/gain-access-now
This is the difference between guessing and executing.
