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9/1 FREE PLAY Atlanta is still being priced as a significant favorite because of the overall talent advantage between these teams, especially with Washington countering with Jake Irvin and his own 5.62 ERA. With neither starter providing much confidence, the matchup shifts toward the supporting casts, where Atlanta has the clear advantage. The Braves bring a deeper, more powerful lineup led by Matt Olson and a hot Michael Harris, along with the stronger high-leverage bullpen options. The Road Flawed Chalk system also supports trusting the stronger road favorite rather than overreacting to the starter’s surface numbers. We like the Braves to win by 2 or more LFG MLB: 1 Unit ( 6:45 PM EST ) Braves -1.5

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8/29 FREE PLAY The Wolfpack must replace key receiving production and improve its pass protection, while Virginia returns an aggressive defense that finished top 25 nationally in Defensive Havoc last season. Offensively, the Cavaliers have continuity where it matters, with a veteran offensive line helping quarterback Beau Pribula settle into the system and creating opportunities for Peyton Lewis and Jekail Middlebrook in the running game. NC State is also dealing with personnel concerns in the secondary and at nose tackle, which could make it difficult to consistently get Virginia off the field. With the more experienced roster and home-field advantage, Virginia should have the upper hand. Big day LFG NCAAF: 1 Unit ( 3:30 PM EST ) Virginia -4

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8/24 FREE PLAY The Twins are in a great spot to generate offense at Sutter Health Park, which has been the most home-run-friendly stadium in baseball this season with 217 homers already. Jeffrey Springs has been especially vulnerable in Sacramento, posting a 6.46 home ERA while allowing 2.5 HR/9, and Minnesota projects to load its lineup with right-handed bats against the lefty. That gives hitters like Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis, Ryan Jeffers, and Josh Bell plenty of home-run upside. Minnesota should have opportunities to put up a crooked number against Springs, while Oakland’s depleted lineup makes it tougher to keep pace. Let’s get the W LFG MLB: 1 Unit ( 9:40 PM EST ) Twins ML

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8/21 FREE PLAY New York enters 11-6 this month and has been consistently producing quality contact, ranking among MLB’s best teams in both barrel rate and hard-hit rate. Sean Manaea carries some risk on the mound, but the Mets have the offensive firepower to compensate, particularly against Sean Burke, whose strong 3.15 ERA comes with enough hard contact allowed to create opportunities for this lineup. Chicago has been closer to a .500 team recently, while New York has been trending in the opposite direction and brings the hotter bats into this interleague matchup. At +130, there’s enough upside to take the road dog as we show this line as even on our model LFG MLB: 1 Unit ( 7:40 PM EST ) Mets ML +130

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8/15 FREE PLAY Randy Dobnak looks like a clear regression candidate despite his 2.00 ERA, carrying an extremely concerning 3.2% K-BB rate with estimators ranging from a 4.41 dERA to a 4.90 SIERA. Neither offense inspires much confidence, so the pitching and bullpen advantages become even more important. Los Angeles has the stronger defense and its bullpen has quietly posted some of the best underlying numbers in baseball over the past month, while Kansas City’s relief corps has been among the league’s worst. With Detmers offering the better starting profile and the Angels holding the late-game edge, we like the angels to get the home W LFG MLB: 1 Unit ( 9:38 PM EST ) Angels ML

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