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Trump’s Push for Cheap Oil Backfires on U.S. Shale Industry
There’s a common belief that the Trump administration is pushing for lower oil prices, partly to boost approval ratings among American drivers through cheaper gasoline (in some states, prices have dropped below $3 per gallon — roughly 80 cents per liter or about 62 rubles in Russian terms).
However, industry analysts warn that WTI crude prices below $65 per barrel are severely hurting the U.S. shale sector — and WTI is currently trading at $63.
Just one year ago, $63 would have been acceptable to U.S. producers. Today, it’s not.
Rising costs for steel, labor, and fracking materials have pushed break-even prices in major basins closer to $70. The average break-even price for Permian producers is now slowly approaching the mid-$60s — up from around $50 just two years ago. New tariffs on imported equipment have further inflated expenses. For example, pipes imported from China and Vietnam have risen by 20% over the past year.
Rystad Energy reported that the break-even cost for new horizontal wells in key shale basins is now nearing $68 per barrel.
Liberty Energy, a major fracking services provider, warned it may cut its crew workforce by 15% by August. Coterra Energy noted plans to reduce drilling activity in the Permian Basin by 30% in the second half of 2025.
In short, the U.S. oil industry now needs at least $68–70 per barrel for WTI — Brent should be priced at $70–73, considering the current discount between the two grades.
Analysts say the market outlook hinges on Saudi Arabia and its Gulf partners’ strategy. As usual, there are two scenarios:
1. Create a small deficit, gradually pushing prices toward $70–75.
2. Aggressively increase OPEC+ output to push prices below $60, forcing U.S. producers to cut back and then reclaiming lost market share.
Right now, the current price near $65 per barrel fits neither scenario — leaving the market stuck in limbo.
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Ireland Now Faces the Reality: Immigration Drives Up Housing Prices
Ireland has joined the growing list of countries where immigration is directly linked to rising housing costs. The situation mirrors broader trends across the Anglosphere, where real estate is becoming increasingly unaffordable due to a massive influx of immigrants — many from China and India, including those arriving with significant financial resources.
This crisis is especially visible in Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, where property prices have surged as demand outpaces supply. In these traditionally immigrant-friendly nations, housing markets are now under extreme pressure, pushing affordability further out of reach for local buyers.
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Asia Accelerates De-Dollarization Efforts
Southeast Asian nations are advancing plans to reduce their dependence on the U.S. dollar as part of an ASEAN initiative (the association of countries south of China). This goal has been included in the recently published ASEAN Economic Community Strategic Plan for 2026–2030. Special attention is being given to increasing the use of local currencies in cross-border trade and investment, aiming to minimize risks associated with dollar volatility and reduce transaction costs.
This year, ASEAN currencies have benefited from the instability of the dollar. The Singapore dollar, Indonesian rupiah, Thai baht, and others have gained strength. The Singapore dollar, for instance, has appreciated by 7% since the beginning of the year — its best performance in 20 years.
However, de-dollarization is progressing slowly. The use of local currencies in trade settlements remains limited, even as central banks diversify their reserves. From the perspective of foreign investors, the region is still too fragmented and diverse. On one side, there's Singapore, where investors are actively moving funds to shelter them from global risks. On the other, there are poorer and more unpredictable economies.
To strengthen its position, ASEAN held its first-ever trilateral summit with China and Gulf states in May, signaling a desire to tackle global economic challenges through deeper cooperation.
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+2I'm always happy when I see my Investors sharing up their testimony with me here, it's always give me more motivation to help more of them always
