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581
trade XAUUSD around these events:
🔑 Key Points:
Previous S&P Global PMI: 53.3
Forecast: 49.8 (expected contraction)
Previous ISM PMI: 49
Forecast: 48 (still contraction)
📉 If Actual PMI < Forecast:
Weak U.S. economic data → USD weakens.
Gold (XAUUSD) usually bullish (price rises).
📈 If Actual PMI > Forecast:
Strong U.S. data → USD strengthens.
Gold (XAUUSD) usually bearish (price drops).
⚡️ Trading Plan:
Wait for the release (don’t enter before news).
Look for 5–15 min candle reaction after release.
If PMI is worse than expected → Buy XAUUSD.
If PMI is better than expected → Sell XAUUSD.
Use tight stop-loss (15–25 pips) since gold is volatile.
Target short-term 50–100 pips depending on volatility.
👉 Since both PMIs are forecasted below 50 (contraction), if the actual numbers are weaker than forecast, gold has a strong chance to rally.
581
focusing on high-impact EUR news events, mainly the HCOB Manufacturing PMI and Unemployment Rate. For trading EUR news, you want a currency pair that reacts strongly to EUR movements and has enough liquidity for quick moves. The best pairs are usually EUR against major currencies:
Top EUR News Pairs:
EUR/USD – The most liquid and responsive to EUR data. Expect sharp moves, tight spreads, and good volatility for trading news.
EUR/GBP – Sensitive to EUR news, especially economic indicators from the EU. Moves may be less dramatic than EUR/USD.
EUR/JPY – Strong reaction to EUR news, good for intraday volatility, but a bit wider spreads.
EUR/CHF – Less volatile than EUR/USD but can react to PMI numbers like in your screenshot (procure.ch Manufacturing PMI).
✅ Best choice for this high-impact news: EUR/USD – because it usually gives the strongest reaction to the PMI and unemployment numbers, and spreads are tight.
@devidsess
581
📈 Scenario Outlook for XAU/USD
If PCE comes in lower than expected (2.7% or below)
→ USD weakens, Fed rate-cut bets strengthen → Gold bullish (potential push toward $3,420–$3,450).
If PCE matches expectations (2.8%)
→ Market reaction muted, Gold likely stays in range $3,390–$3,420 short term.
If PCE surprises higher (≥2.9%)
→ USD strengthens, Fed may hesitate on rate cuts → Gold bearish, risk of pullback toward $3,350–$3,370.
⚖️ Bias
Current market sentiment favors Fed rate cuts in September (85% odds) → overall bullish bias for Gold unless inflation surprises higher.
581
⚠️⚠️⚠️ Initial and continuing unemployment claims slightly above forecast → this is slightly bearish for USD because it suggests the labor market might be softening a bit.
581
📊 US Jobless Claims Update (Aug 28, 12:30)
Continuing Claims (Aug 16): 1,972K 🔺 (Forecast: 1,970K)
Initial Claims (Aug 23): 235K 🔺 (Forecast: 230K)
4-week Average Claims (Aug 23): 226.25K 🔺 (Forecast: 227K)
⚠️ Impact: High (USD)
581
✨ I’m Back! ✨
Hey everyone, I just wanted to let you know that I’m finally home from the hospital and feeling better. Thank you all for your support and prayers while I was away. I’m excited to be back and continue sharing with you! 💚
581
I want to sincerely apologize for not posting anything on this channel for a while. During this time, I was facing some personal/health challenges that made it difficult for me to stay active here.
I truly regret the delay and I am very grateful for your patience and understanding.
Now that I’m recovering, I will slowly start sharing useful updates and content again, just like before.
Thank you so much for your continuous support 🙏
@devidsess
