Jun-XAUUSD/GOLD/Analysis Channel™️

After opening yesterday, gold dropped to a low of $4,341.3 before rebounding. It surged significantly during the European and US trading sessions, peaking at $4,434 before pulling back to close at $4,400. On the daily chart, the KDJ indicator formed a "golden cross" after being in oversold territory, the trend indicator turned upward, and the MACD bearish momentum bars contracted; the overall daily trend leans bullish, with potential to break above this week's high of $4,443 today. On the hourly chart, gold pulled back to the MA40 moving average during the Asian session before rising. With consecutive bullish candles, the price is currently hovering around $4,414. The MA5 moving average is sloping upward, the KDJ indicator shows a golden cross, and MACD bearish momentum bars are shrinking, indicating a short-term bullish bias. Combining this with the daily trend, the strategy for the day favors buying on pullbacks to support levels; key support areas to watch below are the $4,400 psychological level and the previous low of $4,375. My recommendation: BUY: 4,390–4,395 | SL: 4,380 | TP: 4,420–4,430

+ 130 pips⏫⏫⏫

Waiting to reach the trading range 🥇 XAUUSD BUY: 4411-4407 🔴SL: 4401 🎯TP: 4432-4456

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Spot gold is currently trading near $4,400. After a cumulative decline of approximately 2.6% over three consecutive trading sessions, the price rebounded as the US dollar weakened. Market dynamics are currently driven not merely by "safe-haven trading," but by the interplay of four factors: energy prices, inflation expectations, the interest rate trajectory, and the US dollar exchange rate. This week's US PPI (Thursday) and CPI (Friday) data will provide a direct gauge of inflation trends and determine whether the Federal Reserve raises rates or holds steady next week. Gold has stabilized near the confluence support zone of $4,345–$4,340, a level likely to serve as a key pivot point. Technically, upward momentum remains fragile, and the price may face immediate resistance near the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level at $4,427. However, if it breaks through further upwards, it will test the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement resistance near $4529. Key Levels: Resistance: 4425, 4442 Support: 4380, 4365 My recommendations: BUY: 4385/4370 near

Looking ahead at the gold price trend for the next 15 days, the market is currently most focused on this week's inflation data and next week's Federal Reserve policy meeting; combined, these factors lean bearish for gold. If PPI and CPI figures come in higher than expected, the market will continue to bet on interest rate hikes; only if inflation drops significantly will the market revive speculation regarding a pause in rate hikes—a scenario previously suggested by Fed Governor Waller. Yesterday, gold staged a rebound after hitting a low but faced resistance at the 60-period moving average (MA60) on the hourly chart, subsequently turning downward. On the daily chart, the price lost the 4400 mark again and broke through multiple key support levels, signaling a shift to overall weakness in the short term. A new minor downtrend has formed on the hourly timeframe, with the 4390 level acting as a critical resistance point; unless the price breaks above this level, the bearish pattern is unlikely to change. Meanwhile, watch for indicator divergence on the 15-minute chart, with the 4341 level serving as support for a short-term rebound. For intraday trading, look for a corrective rebound on the 15-minute timeframe; if the price faces resistance upon reaching the 4390 zone, consider selling. My recommendations: SELL: 4390-4395 SELL: 4400-4405

Looking ahead at the gold price trend for the next 15 days, market attention will focus on this week's US PPI and CPI inflation data. If inflation figures exceed expectations, gold will face further downward pressure; conversely, if inflation cools significantly, market expectations for interest rate hikes will rapidly diminish, potentially paving the way for a new rebound in gold prices. Today, gold continues to trade within a range-bound pattern characterized by low trading volume. With US markets closed yesterday, overall trading volume was subdued, resulting in a back-and-forth tug-of-war between bulls and bears rather than a clear directional trend. For the short term, the market should be viewed as range-bound; close attention should be paid to the support level at 4380 (yesterday's low). A breach of this level would signal a continuation of the short-term decline. Additionally, the hourly MACD is hovering near the zero line, and momentum has been waning following the previous divergence-led rebound; if the price breaks below the recent low, a new downward trend could begin. My recommendations: BUY: 4395-4400 BUY: 4385-4390

Gold opened higher yesterday, rising to around $4433 before fluctuating downwards. During the NY session, it fell to $4381 before rebounding. Both last Friday and yesterday saw gold test lower levels and then recover, suggesting strong support below. The closing price was $4405, resulting in a lower close on the daily chart. Today, gold opened lower in the Asian session and is currently trading around $4440. The 5-day moving average (MA5) is trending upwards, the MACD indicator shows decreasing downward momentum, and the KDJ indicator is turning upwards, showing signs of a golden cross. The MACD indicator's downward momentum is also decreasing, indicating a relatively bullish daily trend. On the hourly chart, gold is slowly rising, trading above the 60-day moving average (MA60), which is trending upwards. The KDJ indicator has formed a golden cross, and the MACD indicator's upward momentum is increasing, suggesting a short-term bullish trend. Based on the daily chart, the intraday trading strategy for gold is to buy on dips at support levels. Support is seen at the hourly Bollinger Band middle line around $4407, while resistance is at the 4-hour MA60 moving average around $4480. My recommendations: SELL: 4455–4460 | SL: 4470 | TP: 4430–4420 BUY: 4405–4410 | SL: 4395 | TP: 4435–4450

Looking ahead to the next 15 days, the market news is currently relatively quiet, with no major unexpected events expected. Short-term gold price movements are mainly related to fluctuations in the US dollar and US Treasury yields; in the medium to long term, continued gold purchases by global central banks provide support for gold prices. The market is likely to maintain a consolidation pattern in the short term, with the upcoming CPI inflation data this week being the key variable determining the short-term direction of gold prices. Last week, gold generally consolidated at high levels after a significant rise, without a clear one-sided trend, and the weekly chart closed with a doji pattern. Following the release of the US NFP employment data, an extreme plunge occurred, with gold prices falling rapidly from a high of 4490 to a low of 4365, a short-term drop of over $120. Today, the Asian session continues the slight downward adjustment, and gold is expected to maintain a wide range of consolidation throughout the day. My recommendations: BUY: 4365-4370 BUY: 4355-4360

Looking ahead to the next 15 days, gold's future direction will still depend on today's NFP employment data. If the employment report is weak, it will confirm the trading logic of pausing rate hikes, as represented by Waller; if employment and wage data are stronger than market expectations, the US dollar and short-term US Treasury yields may regain the upper hand, thus suppressing the upside potential of precious metals. Gold continued its rebound, experiencing a sharp rise yesterday, reaching a new high of 4510, a short-term gain of over $100. The 1-hour and 4-hour charts show a golden cross of moving averages opening upwards, with the Bollinger Bands expanding accordingly. Gold prices are maintaining their position in the upper half of the Bollinger Bands; the RSI indicator is firmly above the midline, and the bullish technical structure remains intact. Today, Friday, the NFP employment data during the NY session is the core of this week's market movement; the ADP data and regulators' speeches were merely preludes. Before the NFP data release, the market is generally expected to consolidate sideways. My suggestion: BUY: 4435-4440 BUY: 4425-4430

Gold prices rebounded sharply during Asian trading hours yesterday, ultimately closing significantly higher. The rebound was primarily driven by weak ADP employment data, which cooled expectations of an interest rate hike: August's ADP employment figures showed only 38,000 new jobs, a new low for the year, and wage growth slowed to 3.2%, clearly signaling a cooling labor market. This, coupled with a drop in the US dollar index and a decline in US Treasury yields, eased the interest rate pressure on gold. Furthermore, bargain hunters entered the market after gold prices had fallen sharply, further fueling the rebound. Gold prices surged from $4282 to $4387, firmly establishing themselves above the $4000 mark. However, prices remain below the 200-day moving average, and the MACD histogram shows no significant reduction in downward momentum, suggesting that the overall trend remains one of "technical correction within a downtrend." Gold prices rose due to the ADP data, but failed to break through the resistance zone of 4425-4460, the previous consolidation range. Instead, they fluctuated repeatedly at high levels. Although the price is currently above 4400 and the hourly moving averages are showing a bullish divergence, bullish confidence and momentum are not expected to be strong. Intraday, the focus should be on the battle around the 4450 resistance zone on the hourly chart. The hourly technical indicators may show a top divergence, which could hinder further upward movement. Resistance levels: 4450, 4478 Support levels: 4406, 4380 My Recommendation: BUY: 4406/4392 near SELL: 4448/4463 near

Spot gold fell to a two-week low of $4282 today. A combination of hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, US Treasury yields breaking 4.75%, and profit-taking by buyers created a triple negative impact, putting pressure on the entire precious metals sector. Technically, yesterday's sharp decline on the daily chart formed a bearish engulfing pattern, effectively breaking through the previous key support level of 4320, which has now become strong resistance. The short-term MA5/MA10 moving averages have formed a death cross at a high level and are diverging downwards, with gold prices continuing to trade below these short-term moving averages, indicating extremely strong bearish pressure. Gold is expected to continue its oversold rebound during the European session today. Wait for the rebound to reach higher levels before selling! Key Levels: Resistance: 4335, 4360 Support: 4280, 4260 My Recommendation: BUY: 4280/4265 near SELL: 4280/4265 near

During the previous trading session, gold rose to $4,472 during the Asian session before pulling back; it dipped to $4,396, found a floor, and rebounded to close at $4,447. The daily chart formed a "Doji" candle. The 5-day moving average is sloping downward, the KDJ indicator has formed a bearish cross at a high level, and auxiliary indicators are turning downward. On the MACD, the fast and slow lines are above the zero line but have crossed downward, with bearish momentum bars expanding; the daily trend favors the bears. On the hourly chart, gold rose to $4,461 during today's Asian session before turning lower. The KDJ indicator is turning down, and MACD bearish momentum bars are increasing; however, the TRIX trend indicator shows an upward cross, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. Given the bearish daily trend, the intraday strategy focuses on selling at resistance levels; watch for resistance in the $4,470–$4,480 range and support at the $4,400 psychological level. 🔺My recommendations: SELL: 4463–4468 | SL: 4478 | TP: 4430–4420 BUY: 4390–4395 | SL: 4380 | TP: 4430–4440 Join the VIP group to get real-time trading guidance!

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