MR PERFECT TRADER (Forex Learning)
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📊 Japanese yen rises as investors flee from U.S. dollar
The Japanese yen (JPY) gained 0.99% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Wednesday as investors continued to buy safe-haven currencies, fearing that rising tariffs would hurt the U.S. economy and the greenback.
Possible effects for traders
Amidst market turbulence and recessionary anxieties sparked by global trade tariffs, U.S. President Donald Trump reported 'big progress' in face-to-face tariff talks with Japan. He also said that getting a deal with Japan was a U.S. 'top priority'. According to Reuters, the JPY exchange rate, which the Trump administration has said Japan manipulates to get a trade advantage, wasn't part of the negotiation. 'It sounds like the Trump administration really does want a quick deal, which suggests it will be a less substantive deal', said Tobias Harris, founder and principal of Japan Foresight. Previously, Trump imposed 24% levies on Japan's exports to the U.S., although these tariffs have been paused for 90 days. Still, a 10% universal rate and a 25% duty for cars remain in place, which are a mainstay of Japan's export-reliant economy. Traders should continue closely monitoring the ongoing trade negotiations, as the result may significantly impact USDJPY.
USDJPY rose during the Asian and early European trading sessions. Today, apart from tariff-related news, traders should focus on the U.S. Jobless Claims report at 12:30 p.m. UTC. It may shed light on the state of the U.S. labour market, potentially altering investors' rate-cut expectations and triggering volatility in all USD pairs. Key levels to watch are resistance at 143.200 and support at 142.300.
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XAUUSD BUY 3317
MORE BUY 3320
TP 3323
TP 3326
TP 3329
TP 3333
TP 3338
TP 3341
TP 3343
TP 3350
SL 3280
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NAS100 BUY 18440SL 18365
TP 18490
TP 18540
TP 18800
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USDZAR BUY NOW 18.864
SL 18.730
TP 19.089
TP 19.563
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📊 Analysts expect 2025 to be bullish for gold
The gold (XAU) price rose by 0.57% on Tuesday and continued to rally strongly during the Asian and early European trading sessions earlier today. A weaker U.S. dollar (USD), escalating trade tension, and concerns over global economic growth fuel safe-haven demand for gold.
Possible effects for traders
A fiery trade war between the U.S. and China is igniting, with tensions rising. Nvidia, a major technology company, said yesterday it would take $5.5 billion in charges after the U.S. government limited exports of its H20 artificial intelligence chip to China. Meanwhile, China ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets in response to the U.S. imposing 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. 'Gold will continue to be strong as long as there's uncertainty', said Brian Lan, managing director at Singapore-based dealer GoldSilver Central. Traditionally considered a safe-haven asset during geopolitical and economic uncertainties, gold has hit multiple record highs this year, gaining more than 25% since the beginning of 2025.
'We believe risk-off purchases for gold are yet to pick up', analysts at ANZ said. They also raised the bank's year-end gold price forecast towards $3,600 and the six-month forecast towards $3,500. Goldman Sachs, a major U.S. investment bank, has also raised its 2025 forecast towards $3,700 amid soaring demand. According to Reuters, financial markets expect the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume cutting interest rates in June, after a pause in January, and reducing its policy rate by 100 basis points this year. The weak U.S. dollar exerts additional bullish pressure on XAUUSD, making gold more affordable for holders of other currencies.
Today, investors await comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell in his speech at 5:30 p.m. UTC for more clues on the interest rate path. In addition, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. UTC may add more volatility to all USD pairs. 'Spot gold may climb into a range of $3,304 to $3,323 per ounce', said Reuters analyst Wang Tao.
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📊 Australian dollar benefits from weakening U.S. dollar
The Australian dollar (AUD) gained 0.27% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday. AUD continued to move higher during today's Asian and early European trading sessions as the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) failed to find support in the 99.700 area and resumed its decline.
Possible effects for traders
The brewing trade war between the U.S. and China is considered to be a major bearish factor for AUDUSD. Still, strong capital outflows from the greenback towards alternative safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY) have been supporting the Australian dollar lately. In addition, the latest macroeconomic data from China, a major export market for Australia, were surprisingly higher than expected, improving the prospects for the Australian economy. China's industrial output in March rose by 7.7% from a year earlier, quickening from 5.9% growth in January and February. Also, the gross domestic product (GDP) grew 5.4% in January–March, exceeding analysts' expectations for a 5.1% rise. However, most economists consider these improvements only temporary, as rising tariffs are expected to slow the Chinese economy considerably.
Today, traders should focus on the unfolding trade tariff tensions and monitor any developments related to possible trade negotiations. Today's main event is the speech of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Jerome Powell at 5:00 p.m. UTC. If he gives dovish signals and confirms that the U.S. central bank is prepared to cut the rates more aggressively, AUDUSD will likely continue to rise. If Powell gives a more balanced outlook and sounds less dovish than the market expects, AUDUSD may fall. In addition, the U.S. Retail Sales report at 12:30 p.m. may add more volatility to all USD pairs. On top of that, the Australian Employment report will come out at 1:30 a.m. UTC tomorrow and may shake all AUD pairs. The market expects to see 40,000 new jobs added in March. Lower-than-expected figures will likely drive AUDUSD below 0.63120, possibly below the critical 0.62800 level. Higher-than-expected results may pull AUDUSD above 0.63800.
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📊 Euro lacks clear trend direction
The euro (EUR) lost 0.6% against the U.S. dollar (USD) on Tuesday but recovered all losses during today's Asian and early European trading session. The euro strengthened as the greenback weakened amid escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China.
Possible effects for traders
Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday that China has ordered its airlines not to take further deliveries of Boeing jets after the U.S. imposed 145% tariffs on Chinese goods. Meanwhile, U.S. President Donald Trump said he was considering modifying the 25% tariffs imposed on foreign auto and auto parts imports from Mexico, Canada, and other countries. Overall, the current tariff situation is highly uncertain, so investors remain cautious and continue to sell the greenback, favouring other safe-haven currencies like the Swiss Franc (CHF) and the Japanese yen (JPY). As a result, the euro is gaining strength due to the U.S. dollar's weakness.
As for the eurozone itself, the economic outlook remains rather bleak. Yesterday's German ZEW Economic Sentiment Index plummeted to the lowest level in nearly two years. The drop reflected growing concerns over economic uncertainty, escalating global trade tensions between the U.S. and China, and persistent fears of a slowdown of the eurozone economy. Thus, the recent EURUSD rally rests on the loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar rather than on the rise of confidence in the euro. Therefore, traders should be very careful when opening long positions in EURUSD, expecting its further rise.
Today, investors will focus on U.S. Retail Sales reports at 12:30 p.m. UTC and Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell's speech at 5:30 p.m. UTC. According to Reuters, retail sales in March likely surged by 1.3%, largely because consumers rushed to buy goods before tariffs took effect. As for Powell's speech, traders are speculating whether he will adopt the unexpectedly dovish stance recently or maintain a more neutral, balanced approach. Key levels to watch are resistance at 1.14230 and support at 1.13000.
