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1 655
🏴 EPL 🏴
TIP OFF IN 25 MINS
Alright boys we went 1-1 yesterday on the epl plays here
For this one I know a lot of you might not like it and if you were to ever fade a play this is probably the one because both of these teams have so much firepower and even some certain statistics would say this is going to go over
It’s a pretty simple read as I think Liverpool locking up the title already means that this is essentially a useless game for them. I think we’ll see some tired legs and some lack of motivation as far as creating opportunities and finishing opportunities.
Stats wise recently, It’s actually not bad as the under has actually hit in 3/4 of Chelsea’s last home games in the Premier League.
If you want a “safer version” you could stretch it out to under 3.5 instead and then multi that with another Juiced play that you like?
For me, I’m happy to take this play at these odds only sacrificing one unit and based on the current odds for this game it does look like we see a different type of lineup for Liverpool as again. They’ve already locked it all up.
Bit of a gut feeling play as well as naturally my mind went there so I’m taking the bait on the odds here as they are very nice
Defs not a smash spot.
1 655
+1
🏀 NBA 🏀
Mobley -
He pulled down 12 and 13 boards in two full-strength games vs the Pacers during the regular season, averaging over 16 rebound chances in those matchups.
Indiana’s fast pace means more shots and more chances to clean up the glass, and guys like Giannis just dominated them on the boards in round one. Myles Turner tends to float out to the perimeter, leaving Mobley with a clear path to crash the weak side.
With playoff rotations tightening and Mobley likely seeing 35+ minutes, I like him to hit double-digit boards again
Adams -
Houston’s sticking with the double-big lineup of Sengun and Adams, and it’s working perfectly, Golden State just doesn’t have the size to match it. Adams played a season-high 31 minutes last game and barely touched the ball on offence only 4 shot attempts but still managed 16 free throw attempts. Golden State were fouling him constantly, even off-ball, just to get him to the line.
He’s shooting just 45% from the stripe this season, but it’s not about efficiency here it’s about volume. If he gets anywhere near the 5–6 attempts range, that’s enough to hit most free throw props. His minutes have gone up all series and Game 7 should be no different. Expect another 30+ minute shift for Adams, and with it, more trips to the line!
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+3
🏉 NRL - RAIDERS V STORM 🏉
🌐 Meany ATS - 1u - FTS (0.1u)🌐
🌐 Kris ATS - 1u - FTS (0.1u) 🌐
🌐 Both Teams to score 20+ - 1u 🌐
🙏 Long shot multi - 0.2u - unofficial/not tracked 🙏
🙏 Long shot multi - 0.2u - unofficial/not tracked 🙏
✍️ Write up ✍️
It’s shaping up to be an epic game at Suncorp with the Storm and Raiders going head-to-head in a proper top-four clash. Canberra comes into this riding a four-game win streak and off the back of one of the wildest comebacks you’ll see erasing an 18-point halftime deficit to blow past the Dolphins. They’ve now won six of their last eight and look settled, keeping the same side from that win. Melbourne responded to their own Dolphins loss with a gritty ANZAC Day win over the Rabbitohs, pushing them to 5-2 and sitting just ahead of the Raiders on the ladder.
The Storm get a few troops back for this one. Kamikamica returns, Sua Fa’alogo has cleared protocols to start on the wing. Historically, Melbourne has owned this matchup winning 7 of the last 9 against Canberra and clearing the -5.5 line in all 10 wins since 2017. That said, the Raiders have been covering lines lately, especially as underdogs, and have a solid record at Magic Round. I have been tailing under bits all magic round and I keep getting humbled and reminded that it’s just not a smart play so I’m willing to go down with the ship and bet that we see some points in this game and both teams have the striped power so it also wouldn’t be a surprise.
Stats
• Canberra has covered the line in their last 5 games vs higher ladder teams
• Ethan Strange has scored in 3 straight games
• Hudson Young has 2+ tries in 3 of his last 4
• Xavier Savage has scored in 4 of his last 5 as a Queensland underdog
• Sebastian Kris has scored in 4 of his last 5
• Fa’alogo: right wing has scored in all of Melbourne’s last 4
• Grant Anderson has scored in 4 straight vs top 4 teams
• Papenhuyzen has a try in 6 of his last 7
• Milestones: Papenhuyzen and Eli Katoa both clocking up game 100
1 655
🏉 AFL 🏉
🌐 Lions 1-39 - 1u 🌐
🌐 Bailey 2+ - 1u 🌐
Respect to the suns here but loving the Lions at the Gabba to get the job done .. desperately need a bounce back to end this hotter weekend of the AFL. Loving all these spots for these guys
1 655
+1
🏉 NRL 🏉
HISTORY AND STATS VS CURRENT FORM? WHO YOU GOT?
Sunday’s rematch of the 2023 Grand Final should be the game of the round
Penrith are struggling big time this year seeing 6 losses from 8 starts and a 26-10 home defeat to Manly last week says it all. They’re missing Schneider, Kenny and Sorensen again, but do welcome back Luke Garner, terrible bench though for their standards.
The Broncos, meanwhile are red hot! Sitting fifth on the ladder after torching the Bulldogs 42-18, they looked slick and ruthless, especially in that first half where they dropped 34 unanswered points. That’s the broncos that we all expect to see every week
Historically, Penrith have had Brisbane’s number, winning 8 of the last 9 meetings, including the last 4 straight. But the current form leans Brisbane’s way as Panthers have been flat and clunky, while the Broncos are starting to click and look much sharper on both sides of the ball.
History and stats say riff but current form says Broncos. How do you like to punt based on the these?
STATS:
• Panthers have won 8 of the last 9 vs Brisbane
• Panthers have a 4-1 Magic Round record (80%)
• 8 of the last 10 meetings have gone under the total (46.5)
• Brisbane has failed to cover in 12 of its last 13 vs lower-ranked teams
• Penrith has won the first half in 5 of its last 6 games as an underdog
• Jesse Arthars has scored in 8 of Brisbane’s last 9
• Selwyn Cobbo has scored in 8 of his last 10 at Suncorp vs bottom-four teams
• Kotoni Staggs has scored 3 tries against Penrith – most in the Broncos’ squad
• Panthers have conceded 5 tries (14%) to right centres
• Penrith have leaked 5 tries (14%) to left backs – Cobbo’s edge
• Brisbane’s edge defence has allowed 77% of their tries to come via centres or wingers
• 40% of their tries conceded have gone to R2RF, RC, and RW — key spot for Liam Martin, Izack Tago, Paul alamoti
• Luke Garner has scored in 4 of Penrith’s last 5 as underdogs
• Paul Alamoti has scored in 3 straight as an underdog
1 655
AFL
my two bets for this game and I’ve got another two players, including who I believe is the match winner over in the premium
Regardless of results these lines just feel way too high for these guys
🌐 Lachie Under - 1u 🌐
🌐 Robert’s Under - 1u 🌐
More to come later
1 655
+1
🏉 NRL 🏉
NRL
The Titans and Bulldogs square off to open Sunday’s triple-header at Suncorp, with both sides desperate to bounce back after heavy losses last week…. The Dogs showed some grit late against the Broncos but a horror first half and three sin bins buried them early. They’ll go into this one missing Burton, Curran and Tupouniua to suspension, which doesn’t help a squad already battling consistency. Bailey Hayward gets a shot at five-eighth and Suluka-Fifita starts up front.
For the Titans, they’ve now dropped four on the trot and were pumped by 32 against the Cowboys. They’ve rung the changes too as David Fifita has been dropped (I don’t agree with Des on this) Jolliffe out suspended and Brock Gray done for the season. Their lineup still packs strike, but defensively they’ve leaked like crazy on the edges and through the middle, so it’ll come down to who can clean it up quicker.
Alofiana Khan-Pereira has scored in each of Gold Coast’s last 5 at Suncorp So I like a cheeky dabble on him
🌐 AKP ATS - 1u 🌐
🌐 AKP FTS - 0.2u - unofficial/not tracked 🌐
🙏 Long shot multi - 0.25u - unofficial/not tracked 🙏
1 655
🏴 EPL 🏴
Rotations should get tricky this game so I was cautious of including a player but Saka has been so elite that even on restricted minutes a shot on target should well and truly be there. His had atleast one in his last two games as well as his last two meetings versus Bournemouth.. in those games he has scored or assisted a goal as well so that was another market I was looking at but again rotations could be tricky this game so I don’t wanna risk more
This is a very important game for Arsenal and they should have three days rest between each leg of the semifinals legs, add in the fact that Bournemouth has only won one of the last 10 games as well as Arsenal only losing once at home this season (prem only) I expect them to win the game but taking them to win a half again feels like the safer and smarter play
1.5u
1 655
🏴 EPL 🏴
Cheeky flip for the game that kicks off in halfa. Sorry have been absent tonight gang, need to do recaps but it felt like a big night for us!
Let’s keep it rolling expecting a big game here from Vardy in one that should mean a lot to him. Hit rates are through the roof here and previous matchups in history is elite also
1.25u. Looking into more
https://share.sportsbet.com.au/2kv4Z83A
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+2
🏀 NBA 🏀
2 1u plays
0.15u on the long shot
0.5u on the “safer” long shot
There is also a version of the long shot live on my Dabble profile at 20x
Love these plays and projections are through the roof
As always more in SNT+. Link in bio to join
1 655
+2
🏀 NBA 🏀
2 1u plays
0.15u on the long shot
0.5u on the “safer” long shot
There is also a version of the long shot live on my Dabble profile at 20x
Love these plays and projections are through the roof
As always more in SNT+. Link in bio to join
1 655
+1
🏉 AFL 🏉
SNT tips here:
🌐 Crows W/Rory 20+ Ds - 1u 🌐
🌐 Rachele 2+ Goals - 1u 🌐
🙏 Dogs V Port Long shot - 0.25u - unofficial/not tracked 🙏
1 655
+2
🏉 NRL - COWBOYS V WAHS 🏉
More in SNT+!! Link in bio
SNT tips here:
🌐 Rocco Berry ATS - 1u 🌐
🌐 Rocco Berry FTS - 0.2u - unofficial/not tracked 🌐
🌐 Nanai OR Vailea ATS - 1u 🌐
🌐 QLD H2h - 1u 🌐
🙏 Long Shot Multi - 0.2u - unofficial not tracked 🙏
Am labbing the other games rn so no time for a write up but as always message me if you have any questions why
Let’s continue the red hot form from yesterday where we CLEANED up!!
1 655
🏉 AFL 🏉
PORT V DOGS
Just the one play here, but I’ve got two others in my premium group .. nice and simple for this one as I can see an upset here
🌐 Port +20.5 Handicap - 1u 🌐
1 655
+1
🏉 NRL 🏉
🌐 Dylan Lucas ATS - 1u 🌐
🌐 Dylan Lucas FTS - 0.2u - unofficial/not tracked 🌐
🌐 Best OR Sharpe ATS - 1u 🌐
🌐 Sharpe ATS - 1u 🌐
🙏 Long Shot Multi - 0.25u - unofficial not tracked 🙏
Am labbing the other games rn so no time for a write up but as always message me if you have any questions why
Let’s continue the red hot form from yesterday where we CLEANED up !!
1 655
🌐 SNT TIPS 🌐
Who’s awake?!
Am leaning a few plays but gonna roll with a cheeky multi instead as these guys full lines were nearly there for me… but this is funner and you guys love these
Nothing crazy, 0.6u outlay here as all these guys should step up and hopefully cover these lines very easily. Projections are through the roof
As always if anything changes tips wise and if there’s more I like, will keep you guys update first
Live on feed
https://share.sportsbet.com.au/1nzySMbV
1 655
🏀 NBA 🏀
Got a lot more action (4 bets) in SNT+ for this game … so unfortunately there won’t be that much action here but I am still looking into a spread play and/or and over under on the total points line… those are always worth a unit for me
The reason why I’ve only thrown one unit on Jimmy here is more emotional than anything… he is elite in the postseason and he’s literally famous for turning up come play-off time.. the rockets actually have elite interior defence and they have been giving he and Curry a hard time but this series he has done very well and the match up against Brooks has been an interesting one as they have gone back-and-forth every single game and he has publicly stated how much he hates him… I just think he has poked the bear and Jimmy should be looking at a 20+ point game so naturally this line was attractive to me.. not a smash spot due to the elite interior defence but I do think taking him or Curry to go over makes sense but not both…
Stats wise he is pretty up and BUT when playing at home everything goes up and he is much more confident
More to come
1 655
+2
🏉 AFL - FREO V SAINTS 🏉
BREAKDOWN:
🌐 3x SB Promo Hub Special - 1u 🌐
🌐 Nasiah - 1u - official Tracked 🌐
🌐 2x Multi - 1u 🌐
🙏 Long Shot Multi - 0.25u - unofficial not tracked 🙏
https://click.dabble.com.au/gnUM/0zh6unlq
Write up 👇🏼
Freo take the trip over to Marvel Stadium chasing back-to-back wins after knocking off the Crows at home. They’ve lost four straight in Victoria this year though, so this clash with the Saints is another test of whether they can travel and get it done but I would say their team is much better on paper.
Brayshaw and Serong were huge last week, combining for 69 touches and dominating the midfield, and they’ll be licking their lips against a St Kilda side that’s been absolutely steamrolled through the middle the past two weeks. The Saints gave up 69–31 and 66–43 inside 50 counts in their last two games and looked totally outclassed! Injuries and suspensions haven’t helped either….
St Kilda are also riding a three-game losing streak and have been smashed at Marvel in back-to-back outings. They’ve let through over 118 points a game across that stretch and now run into a Freo side that’s finally found some rhythm. Luke Jackson returning from a hamstring issue could be massive too, especially given his impact last time they played
The Saints might get a bit of a midfield lift from Wanganene-Milera who was a bright spot last week, cracking 30+ for the first time this year and covering that 25+ line in 6/7. But the overall matchup still leans heavily Fremantle’s way I think due to the players out there on the field.
The Dockers belted the Saints by 17 under the roof last year and I reckon we could be in for more of the same but as always am loving these plays and all hit rates and match ups are there for these guys
1u on each
0.4u on the multi combined (live on my feed)
0.25u for the long shot
1 655
+2
🏉 NRL 🏉
UNIT BREAKDOWN
🌐 Either Team by 10 or Less - 1u 🌐
🌐 Billy Smith ATS - 1u - official Tracked 🌐
🌐 Billy Smith FTS - 0.1u - unofficial not tracked 🌐
🌐 OVER 48.5 Total Points - 1u 🌐
🙏 Long Shot Multi - 0.15u - unofficial not tracked 🙏
Write up 👇🏼
Friday night’s Magic Round clash sees the Roosters take on the Dolphins at Suncorp in what should be a pretty decent matchup. The Roosters finally found a bit of spark last week, thumping the Dragons 46-18 and looking far more like the team we expected. That win pushed them up to 13th, sitting just one spot behind the Dolphins, who absolutely collapsed last round. They led Canberra 28-10 at halftime and somehow managed to let in 30 unanswered points, not a great sign, especially considering how reliable they’ve been defensively all year.
The Dolphins are still unbeaten in Magic Round and have never lost to the Roosters at Suncorp, so they won’t be short on confidence. Redcliffe have also covered the line in four of their last five games as underdogs. But it’s the Roosters who lead the head-to-head 2-1, and Trent Robinson is sticking solid with the same 17 from the ANZAC Day win. Felise Kaufusi returns for the Phins to shore up the middle without Saifiti, and they’ll also welcome back Jeremy Marshall-King and Kurt Donoghoe. It’s a tough one to split, but with both teams unpredictable and some key attacking weapons on deck, we might be set for points.
Best bets and stats in my premium group SNT+ (link in bio)
1 655
+3
🏉 NRL 🏉
BREAKDOWN:
🌐 Parra +25.5 / Sharks Win 🌐
🌐 Iro ATS - 1u - official Tracked 🌐
🌐 Iro FTS - 0.1u - unofficial not tracked 🌐
🌐 Moses ATS - 0.4u - unofficial not tracked 🌐
🌐 Moses FTS - 0.05u - unofficial not tracked 🌐
🙏 Long Shot Multi - 0.25u - unofficial not tracked 🙏
Write up 👇🏼
Magic Round kicks off with a solid Friday night clash between Cronulla and Parramatta at Suncorp. The Eels are coming in fresh off a bye and finally grabbed their second win of the year with a 38-22 result over the Tigers. That was Mitchell Moses’ first game back for 2025, and you could see the difference straight away, he controlled the game and looked sharp. Cronulla, on the other hand, went down to those same Tigers in golden point last week, and they’ll be pretty filthy about that one. It’s been a shaky few weeks for the Sharks, and they’re not exactly loving Magic Round either, just 2 wins from 5 appearances in the round.
Parra haven’t been much better at Magic Round with a 1-4 record, but they’ve definitely had the Sharks’ number in recent meetings. Moses in particular has torched them in the past, and he’ll be a massive in again. The Sharks will be glad to get Kayal Iro and Braden Hamlin-Uele back in the mix, but it’s still a tricky matchup. Parra have covered the line in four of their last five as underdogs, and three of their last four losses to the Sharks have been by 12 or less. If Cronulla win, it won’t be by much and the Eels are a better side with Moses steering them around.
Further stats and my 3 best bets for this game are live in my premium group SNT+. Link in bio.
