degen trading

Pre Market Thoughts - 9 Sep 26 Neocloud Autumn in full swing yesterday as the entire neocloud complex was up 5-15% - led by $CRWV. Astra's release seemed to have made people realize that AGI is indeed near and that more compute is needed. The thesis did not change. The only change was price. $ORCL at 120 - naysayers were pointing to the long dated bonds trading at 50% and saying that it was going to default. Anyone with a brain would notice that these bonds were issued in 2021 and hence had low coupons and were merely the result of the rise in LT risk free rates. Most people are just momentum junkies disguised with some veneer of a thesis. This is why i emphasize that its so important to develop your own thesis and conviction vs blindly following someone or the "price" Inference is going to be the next narrative, particularly private inference as the backlash against OAI possibly utilising private sessions to race to the solution for Navier-Stokes. Whether or not that is the case, the genie is out of the bottle. People are going to care about privacy and about where the value of their work developed with AI accrues to. $PLTR CEO emphasized on this before. $NBIS with its $PLTR partnership opens up the skies for $420 $NBIS prices. This is transformational for $NBIS, because it is no longer a neocloud, instead it is more like a neoscaler! It also helps the investor base. If you know what im talking about, good for you. Memory was slightly soft, however i think that we will see strength in memory soon. 1800 and 1000 remains key resistance levels for SNDK and MU and i anticipate that the next levels to come will be 2300 and 1200 for them respectively. $SKHY is trading at near ATHs, given the KR buybacks in $00660, i actually expect the $SKHY premia to increase as the supply for $SKHY is constrained and further issuance is unlikely. $TSMC premia was once near 100% and i think $SKHY could revisit those levels as it is the core producer for HBMs. Next in crypto, we saw the majors softening and huge bids across the entire AI token space. In my note yesterday, i said to look to bid for AI tokens - the catalyst has come from the OAI potential backlash. Private inference is one of the key problems that crypto x AI can solve. $VVV saw huge bids off the back of that. Very soon, other inference tokens will possibly come into the forefront. There are some emerging ones that i really like, that are extremely difficult to buy and hence i think will rerate multiple times. Funding rates (https://terminal.gambit.zone/dex-data/pulse) on HL is also elevated for AI equity tickers - $KORU, $SOXL, $NBIS as well as meme favorite $USELESS. NEOCLOUD AUTUMN Good luck!

generally looks healthy so far

top funding rates

lmao

i think i just got rugged

wow

🟢 XYZ:MU · TWAP STARTED · Buy $3.07M over 30m ($102.45K/min) · 1.68% of OI · reduce 🐋 $4.04M · View on Gambit

top +ve delta

NBIS X PLTR - such a sick combo

neo basket

$CRWV $IREN leading

while waiting for the mkt

Pre Market Thoughts - 8 Sep 26 A very MEMORABLE morning in asia as memory stocks continue pushing up. $00660 is up 3%, going off the 1.6-1.7m support zone. Meanwhile in overnight markets, $MU and $SNDK are up as well. To recap, i have been emphasizing that we have already seen selling exhaustion and the next leg is triggered by stop ins from funds who are not positioned for a move up. (See past notes about record low net and gross leverage across PB data) The next thing i want to talk about is my caution in crypto. Since i made the call yesterday, we have seen already some softness in majors. This is nothing fundamental, it is just more people realizing that liquidity at these levels are thin and getting out. I hold firm to my call that this is the time to rotate out of crypto and into AI equities. I would look to rebuy crypto after a flash crash event in alts which i believe is coming soon. For majors, the 72k-74k level is where i see support for $BTC. Your RH trench tokens? Some will survive, some wont. Which ones will? Those with some semblance of a product, cash flows. As i said in my last note, i would look for AI tokens to bid in the next drawdown leg for crypto. This week is relatively light. We have $ORCL earnings on SEP 10, CPI on SEP 11. (See https://terminal.gambit.zone/radar -> Calender). Option markets are implying a ~12% move on earnings for $ORCL (https://terminal.gambit.zone/earnings) Good luck!

Pre Market Thoughts - 7 Sep 26 US Labor day holiday with only Asia open. $NKY and $KOSPI both traded strongly with $NKY up 2% and $KOSPI up 4%. Last friday, we had strong AI performance in memory and neoclouds. This was seen in Asia with $0660 up 7% and $285A trading strongly too. Let me again bang the drum that across neos and memory - seller exhaustion has already set in. With Astra's release, i strongly believe that the tape ahead will read VERY conducive for the semiconductor trade. Ironically, software which has seen bids in may fall to a positioning squeeze. On my note on 1 Sep, i made the call for a bottoming out structure in semis. We stand on the cusp of a very rare set up where positioning, fundamentals AND catalysts all align together. The macro tape is also supportive with Bessent doing all he can to juice the markets ahead of the mid terms. On an index level, funds are NOT positioned for the upside and are overly hedged for the downside. Semis on a fwd basis are at where they were in Apr prior to the rally - which means that there has NOT been any expectations on the strong growth baked in yet. $NVDA stands out as the prime example. Crusoe also wrapped up funding at a 35B valuation, this is going to be Neocloud Autumn. in crypto, we had a very strong pumps since i made the call to "buy everything not nailed down". At this point, i am turning CAUTIOUS. Many of the alt leaders are seeing weakness and liquidity on CEXes seemed to have gone much lower. I do think that markets might experience a flash -30% crash across a few tokens where speculators have overly positioned themselves. The play here however is not to short. This is a bull market. Instead you should use the opportunity to observe and see what you should in fact be bidding on. My take with semis is that AI mania crosses over into crypto. Post the frenzy of memes, i would look for AI tokens to bid within crypto in the next drawdown leg. Do not fear the drawdowns, they give an opportunity for entry and to reset the tables. Good luck!