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💰Gold Stays Heavy, But Geopolitical Risk Limits Downside Gold is still caught between two forces. Geopolitical tension around the Strait of Hormuz keeps safe-haven demand alive, especially with shipping and energy risks rising. ⏺But price action is not very strong. Risk headlines have not been enough to trigger a clean move higher, as tighter financial conditions and weak momentum continue to pressure gold. ⏺Technically, XAUUSD remains below the 50-day SMA, MACD is falling, and the short-term trend still looks bearish. ⏺That said, RSI near 30 shows the move is getting stretched. Gold is close to oversold territory, so short-covering or a headline-driven rebound is possible. For now, the bias remains slightly bearish, but downside may not be smooth from here. ⏺Support & Resistance Levels S1: 4014.76  R1: 4040.91 S2: 3997.79  R2: 4050.09 S3: 3988.61  R3: 4067.06

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#MorningBrief 📊 Bond markets cut Fed hike bets after soft inflation data. 🤖 OpenAI may delay its IPO until 2027, according to the New York Times. 💰Gold fell for a fourth week on dollar strength and US-Iran peace hopes. 🛢Oil fell as supply fears eased and tanker traffic resumed.

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🚨Major Chinese Banks Tighten Gold Trading   💬Some of China's largest banks, including ICBC, are suspending precious metals trading on the Shanghai Gold Exchange for retail investors as gold price volatility remains high.   🔹 Existing clients must close positions before the deadline or face forced liquidation. 🔹 The move aims to reduce retail exposure after gold's strong rally reversed in recent months.   📉The decision could curb speculative demand and trading activity in the near term.

🇯🇵 BOJ's Tamura Pushes for More Rate Hikes   Naoki Tamura, one of the Bank of Japan's most hawkish policymakers, said the BOJ should raise interest rates by 0.25 percentage points every few months to keep inflation in check.   🗣 Tamura sees the policy rate gradually rising toward a neutral level of around 2%. 🗣 He said stronger inflation pressures, including Middle East tensions, could require faster tightening. 🗣 The BOJ raised its policy rate to 1% last week, the highest since 1995. 🔹 Most economists still expect the next rate hike in October or December.   📈 Tamura's comments reinforce expectations that the BOJ's tightening cycle is not over, supporting the yen and government bond yields.

🇷🇺 Fed Flags Risks in Treasury Basis Trades A new Federal Reserve report shows that the cash-futures basis trade has become the largest source of hedge fund exposure to the US Treasury market. 📊 According to the report, roughly $830 billion of hedge funds’ $2.4 trillion long Treasury positions are linked to basis trades, making it their most significant strategy. 🪙 Hedge funds’ total Treasury exposure has climbed to $4 trillion. 💰 The 50 largest funds now represent 90% of overall Treasury exposure, increasing market concentration. ❗️ The Fed warned that high leverage and concentrated positions could threaten financial stability if market stress triggers a broad unwinding of trades. ⭕️ The report also highlighted that the rapid collapse of basis trades was a major factor behind the severe disruption in the US Treasury market during the March 2020 liquidity crisis.

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#MorningBrief 👍Brent erased wartime gains as Hormuz flows surged on US-Iran peace progress. 👨‍💼 US President Trump said Iran talks go well, with Tehran making major concessions. 🚢Wright said 20 million barrels daily transited Hormuz, but mines need clearing. ⚡️Lavrov said Russia is open to Ukraine talks but rejects ultimatums and temporary solutions.

🏠 US New Home Sales Miss Expectations   Sales of newly built US homes fell sharply in May, reflecting the impact of high mortgage rates on the housing sector.   🔹 New home sales dropped 7.3% to an annualized 580,000 units, below forecasts of 640,000. 🔹 Mortgage rates near 6.6% continued to limit buyer demand despite builder incentives. 🔹 The median new home price edged up to $424,900 and remained broadly stable from a year earlier. 🔹 Housing inventory reached 496,000 homes, or 10.3 months of supply, matching the highest level since 2009. 🔹 Sales in the West fell nearly 27%, while activity in the South also remained subdued.   📊The data points to ongoing affordability challenges as high borrowing costs continue to pressure housing demand and homebuilder activity. Attention now turns to upcoming economic data and Fed signals for clues on the path of interest rates.

#MarketUpdate 🇺🇸US Crude Oil Inventories Actual: -6.088M Forecast: -3.900M Previous: -8.263M

☄️ Gold falls below $4,000 as rate-hike concerns grow!

🥇 Gold Nears $4,000 Threshold Gold prices continued their descent for a second consecutive session, gravitating toward the $4,000 mark as a dominant dollar and aggressive Federal Reserve expectations mounted pressure on the metal. 🔹 A surging dollar continues to increase the transaction cost of gold for international buyers. 🔹 Elevated Treasury yields and prolonged restrictive interest rates have diluted the appetite for non-yielding assets. 🔹 Subsiding Middle Eastern geopolitical friction has actively eroded safe-haven demand premiums. 🔹 Macquarie revised its gold price outlook lower, pointing to a more hawkish central bank stance. 🕯 Spot gold fell 2.39% on the day to trade around $4,013 per ounce. Market participants are waiting for the impending U.S. PCE inflation data to gauge future monetary policy adjustments.

⏺ US oil prices fall below $72/barrel for the first time since March 3rd.

#Economic_Calendar 🗓 Click here to learn more about today's important economic events!

#MorningBrief 🔥 The offshore yuan fell to 6.80, a one-month low, on a stronger dollar. 💲 The dollar index held near 101.4, a one-year high, on Fed hike bets and safe-haven demand. 🪙Gold fell below $4,100, near seven-month lows, as Fed tightening expectations outweighed US-Iran peace support. 🛢️Oil fell toward $72 as Hormuz traffic resumed and US-Iran talks advanced.

#MarketUpdate 🇺🇸US S&P Global Services PMI (Jun) Actual: 51.3 Forecast: 51.1 Previous: 50.7 🇺🇸US S&P Global Manufacturing PMI (Jun) Actual: 55.7 Forecast: 54.6 Previous: 55.1 #EURUSD #FED #GOLD

📉Metals Under Selling Pressure 🥇 Gold and silver have entered a clear correction phase after tapping historic peaks in recent months. Gold values retraced toward the $4,100 threshold, while silver pulled back near $62 per ounce. ⚠️This liquidating momentum gained traction following a broad technology sector equity selloff, a strengthening U.S. dollar, and mounting anxieties that the Federal Reserve will preserve its restrictive monetary policy settings for an extended period. Fading expectations for aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts have dulled the immediate appeal of non-yielding precious metals. 📊Market indicators show both assets surrendering a substantial portion of the premium generated by recent Middle Eastern geopolitical friction. Market participants now look to vital upcoming U.S. inflation figures for the next major trend signal.

🛢 Oil Prices Face Supply Pressure Hedge funds have increased bearish bets on crude oil as expectations grow that a lasting US-Iran agreement could bring more Iranian exports back to global markets.   ⏺If sanctions are eased and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes, Middle Eastern supply could increase considerably. Softer demand signals from China, in the meantime, continue to weigh on the outlook.   ⏺Rising short positions in Brent, WTI, and diesel suggest the focus is shifting from supply disruptions to the risk of excess supply, leaving oil prices vulnerable to further declines.

🇯🇵Intervention Risk Grows on Yen Slide The Japanese yen's drop toward 162 per dollar has heightened speculation of imminent market intervention. Recent discussions between Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama and US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent regarding "bold steps" suggest Tokyo is laying the groundwork to defend the currency. 😃The yen's persistent weakness stems from policy divergence. The Federal Reserve maintains a hawkish stance on sticky inflation, whereas the Bank of Japan's rate-hike path is viewed as too cautious. Additionally, rising Middle East oil prices are inflating Japan's import costs, further straining its trade balance. 🌟 While a breach of the 162 threshold could prompt a decisive response, traders question the durability of unilateral intervention. As long as the substantial interest-rate gap between the US and Japan persists, any regulatory action will likely offer only temporary relief while fueling short-term forex volatility.