S2UndergroundWire

Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1900Z July 10, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: HORMUZ TRAFFIC SLOWS AS AIRSTRIKES CONTINUE IN IRAN OVERNIGHT. PRESIDENT TRUMP STATES THAT THE CEASEFIRE IS OFFICIALLY OVER. WIRED-GUIDED FPV DRONE DISCOVERED IN CARTEL WEAPONS CACHE IN MEXICO. RUSSIAN AFRICA CORPS CONTINUES CONFLICT IN MALI.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Yesterday's targeting continued throughout the night, with dozens of targets being struck within Iran. Much of the targeting centered around the major port of Bushehr, with a SAM site being struck and the runway being cratered again last night. Strait of Hormuz: This morning the UKMTO published a notice reaffirming their assurance that the southern Omani route remains open for use. Despite this assurance (and highlighting that sentence in red in their notice), most of the maritime community is no longer trusting this route at the moment due to Iranian targeting which kicked off the war again. No vessels transited either route overnight due to the targeting, however some ships attempted to make the crossing this morning. Far East: This morning China imposed an export ban on Helium, effective immediately. The Ministry of Commerce stated that this decision was made to allow domestic semiconductor chip manufacturing facilities to maintain their supply of the gas, which is essential for the production of computer chips. Analyst Comment: Most of the world's supply of Helium is produced as part of the process of refining natural gas in the Middle East. Since the war began, crude oil has not been the only concern, but also other distillates and byproducts such as jet fuel and helium. China halting exports is a substantial indicator of the severity of the current war. China has also been able to get more of their ships out of the Gulf than anybody else, so if even they are hurting for helium, this is not a good sign. Africa: The conflict between Russian mercenaries and FLA militants has continued to escalate, with fierce fighting being reported in the vicinity of Anefis over the past few days. The Russian Africa Corps base in Anefis has been routinely targeted by FLA, with most of the attacks taking the form of ground skirmishes or drone attacks. Mexico: During a counter-narco raid in Durango yesterday, Mexican forces located a fiber-optically controlled drone platform within a weapons cache in the Dolores del Río neighborhood. This drone was reportedly fitted with an explosive charge similar to that which has become more commonly used throughout the region for carrying out attacks between rival cartel factions. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Middle East, yesterday evening contradictory reports circulated on social media regarding which nation actually carried out some of the strikes within Iran. Some reports claimed that the strikes in the afternoon were not conducted by the United States, but actually another nation. The most obvious culprit is Israel, but reports also claimed that the Kuwaitis also conducted attacks of their own last night as well. No matter who actually dropped the munitions, the effect is the same: the Iranians consider all attacks on their territory as originating from the same US-led coalition. What the Iranian response will be is unclear. Previously, they have been extremely forthcoming with the target list they would strike, if the US conducted more serious targeting within Iran. Desalination plants, energy production facilities, oil export terminals, and the aircraft at US bases in the region which are once again within Iranian missile range, are all likely targets if the Iranians so desire. Considering that President Trump announced that the ceasefire is officially off this afternoon (but that talks will continue) the next few days will be instrumental in determining if the war will return to it's full form, or if the attack-peace-attack cycle will continue.

//The Wire//2300Z July 9, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WAR CONTINUES IN MIDDLE EAST AS CEASEFIRE REMAINS DEFUNCT FOR NOW. MERCHANT TRAFFIC IN HORMUZ SLOWS TO A CRAWL DUE TO TARGETING.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: The war continued to escalate overnight, with many targeting efforts being undertaken by the United States and Iran. Within Iran, the U.S. continued to strike coastal sites and fastboat ports, in addition to striking more substantial infrastructure targets deep within Iran. These strikes continued throughout the day, with explosions being reported around the country this afternoon. On the Iranian side, many strikes were carried out on the usual sites throughout the region. In Kuwait, Ali Al Salem Airbase and Camp Arifjan were targeted, with the Iranians claiming to hit a Patriot battery at one of these sites. In Qatar, a radar installation was targeted, and a fuel depot was targeted in Bahrain. In Jordan, Muwaffaq Salti Air Base was targeted again, with the American Embassy in Amman urging all Americans to shelter in place during the strikes. Drone/missile strikes were also reported targeting U.S. positions in Erbil, Iraq, the success of which is currently unknown. -HomeFront- New York: The Department of Buildings has reported that the former Pfizer building has largely been stabilized, after severe buckling and a partial collapse of the upper floors was observed a few days ago. Various reinforcement operations continue to be undertaken to further stabilize the structure, and a third-party construction firm has been brought in to conduct additional repairs. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Despite many airframes being transferred back to the United States from the Middle East, American targeting within Iran has continued throughout the day. The heavy reliance on Tomahawk munitions (as observed on the ground by Iranians) also adds weight to the theory of the US having to rely on standoff munitions due to the logistical movements resulting in fewer aircraft being available for bombing runs. Also, last night's strikes were also possibly more significant than meets the eye. Locals on the ground reported the Aq Taqeh Khan railway bridge being struck overnight, which was interesting due to it's location being in the far northeastern corner of Iran. This bridge is part of the newly unveiled China-Iran railway network, which is a series of rail lines linking Iran to western China. These lines also meander through the mountains to eventually connect to Russia via Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan. Taking out this bridge was not only interesting because it is one of the farthest-north targets struck during the entire war, but it's also a very public message to China, who has been long-suspected of shipping the Iranians materiel and supplies to carry on the fight. In the Strait of Hormuz, civilian merchant traffic continued to transit the waterway, but since last night the traffic has slowed to a halt again with very few crossings throughout the day. As a reminder, it takes up to two months for a tanker to make it's way to the US from the Middle East. Consequently, if the Iranians shut down the Strait again due to this targeting (or if companies simply decide that the risk isn't worth it), the world will only have the benefit of a handful of tankers which have been able to make the crossing over the past couple of weeks. This does not even remotely come close to alleviating the problems that prompted the MOU being signed...President Trump himself said that (at the time) the US only had about 4 weeks worth of Strategic Reserve left before shortages began. As the fighting has resumed to some degree, the status of the global energy crisis remains a very real concern, and the clock starts ticking down as the flow of petroleum slows down once again. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground NomadNet: 5fa68c88be727a0e1a250a75e5e79269 Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

Concerning merchant shipping, even though the MOU is now essentially defunct, merchant traffic has continued to flow through the Strait of Hormuz, mostly using the Iranian route. This afternoon, Iranian sources claimed that they will be closing the Strait in response to this latest wave of targeting, but as of this evening many vessels continue to transit using the Iranian route with no problems. This may change this evening as President Trump directly stated that more strikes will take place tonight. Pakistan is attempting to get Iran and the US to re-adopt the MOU and continue the framework of solutions that they had worked out. Once the smoke clears in a few days, the world may be able to determine how likely it is for the US to resume the terms of the MOU, but as the bombing has continued throughout the day, peace is not likely at the moment. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 8, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: MIDDLE EAST CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES AS MAJOR STRIKES REPORTED OVERNIGHT BETWEEN USA AND IRAN. SOMALI CLAN CONFLICT BREWING IN MINNEAPOLIS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Middle East: Following yesterday's targeting of merchant vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, the United States retaliated by striking many targets within Iran. Several dozen locations were reportedly struck, ranging from naval ports to more substantial bases in the coastal region. Qeshm Island and Kharg Island were struck, in addition to many smaller ports used by IRGCN fastboats. In retaliation, the Iranians conducted strikes on Isa Air Base in Bahrain. Possible strikes were also reported at the former 5th Fleet Headquarters in Manama. Kuwait also reported intercepting 2x ballistic missiles and 13x drones. At least one American MQ-9 drone was also shot down during the night, reportedly somewhere near Bushehr. All total, Iran claims to have conducted 85x strikes in retaliation. As last night's targeting was unfolding, President Trump was still located in Turkey for the NATO summit. During a press conference, he stated that he considered the ceasefire to be over and the Memorandum of Understanding to no longer be in effect. A few hours later, Iranian representatives also stated that the MOU has concluded. -HomeFront- Minnesota: Several small arms engagements have been reported throughout Minneapolis over the past few days. Over the July 4th holiday weekend, several instances of Somali clans targeting each other with fireworks deteriorated from a general nuisance into shootings. A total of four small arms engagements took place Saturday night, and several more shootings have been reported throughout the week, at least one of which took place at a confirmed Somali fraud site, which was being used to launder money until being raided by federal agents earlier this year. Analyst Comment: After the wave of shootings over the weekend, yesterday Ramsey County Sheriff Bob Fletcher issued a statement confirming that all of these shootings were linked to the growing conflict between Somali Clans in the city. These concerns have been growing for some time, and now that the summer fighting season is in full swing, these engagements are likely to continue until the colder seasons arrive. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: If the ceasefire in the Middle East really is over, nobody seems to have told the Air Force, as there were a substantial number of refueling tankers on the ground at Al Udeid Airbase in Qater as of 4 days ago. Due to how vulnerable this base is to Iranian missiles, most major engagements have usually been preceded by this specific base evacuating ahead of a large bombing campaign. The major unanswered question is whether or not this was just a particularly heavy mutual targeting effort, or if this marks a true return to the more kinetic phases of the war. At the moment, it's too soon to tell, but there aren't really enough assets in region to conduct large scale bombing campaigns. Most of the B-52's that were stationed in England have already re-deployed back home to the USA, and over the past two weeks various assorted flights of fighter aircraft have also been making their way back home from the Middle East. It's possible that the MOU is being abandoned without the US returning to the full-blown bombing campaign, with the situation remaining in limbo and neither side really working toward a diplomatic solution. President Trump did threaten to invade Kharg Island again, in addition to re-imposing the US blockade in the Gulf of Oman. The blockade is doable with the US Navy vessels in the region, but Kharg Island is completely off the menu as this was not a viable military objective during the height of the "surge" leading to the war, and now that a significant drawdown has occurred it's even less feasible.

New York: This morning evacuations were conducted after a high-rise building experienced a partial collapse in midtown Manhattan. The former Pfizer building at 235 E. 42nd St was undergoing major renovations/construction this morning, when approximately 5 floors of the building experienced a partial collapse. A perimeter cordon is currently in place around the building, as pieces of the structure have been falling on the street and sidewalk throughout the morning. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In the Persian Gulf, the Ayatollah's funeral has served as a sort of ceasefire-within-a-"ceasefire", and the United States and Iran took the past week to actually stop shooting at each other. During that time, merchant vessels also took the opportunity to slip through the Strait of Hormuz via the southern Omani route...something that Iran has repeatedly warned against. During the funeral, Iranian forces let this take place, however as of last night patience ran out and the Iranians have returned to striking commercial vessels for taking this route. So far today, a total of 4x confirmed (and probably one more unconfirmed) merchant vessels have been engaged by Iran for trying to sneak through the Strait. This is the most ships that have been struck since the hot-phase of the war, and these targeting efforts were not the result of ship captains unilaterally changing the route. Yesterday, the UKMTO directly stated that merchant traffic may take the southern route without coordinating with the Iranians. This statement was issued knowing full well that the Iranians have been warning ships that they must take the Larak Island route. Exactly who made the decision to issue this statement is unclear, but in effect the UKMTO told ships to take a route that they knew would be unsafe, gambling on the Iranians not conducting strikes during the Ayatollah's funeral. Now, the burning hulls of five ships are evidence that this gamble was ill advised. In response to these attacks, the United States has re-imposed sanctions on Iranian oil exports after granting them permission to export their oil a few weeks ago. Other than the sanctions, the United States is likely to conduct the standard retaliation strikes at random targets near Bandar Abbas over the next few days. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 7, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: EXPLOSIONS REPORTED NEAR HOTEL HOUSING FRENCH PRESIDENT DURING STATE VISIT TO DAMASCUS. MONACO BOMBER FOUND DEAD IN UKRAINE. IRAN RESUMES TARGETING OF UNAUTHORIZED TRANSITS OF HORMUZ STRAIT. CONCERNS GROWING REGARDING STATUS OF SENATOR MCCONNELL'S HEALTH, COMPLICATING UPCOMING ELECTION.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Syria: This morning several explosive devices were detonated in Damascus during French President Emmanuel Macron's state visit. The first device took the form of a Vehicle-Borne IED (VBIED) which was detonated on the street adjacent to the Ministry of Tourism, wounding many people including the Assistant Deputy Minister of Tourism. A few minutes after this device detonated, another device detonated on the street immediately adjacent to the initial blast site. At the time of the blasts, President Macron was staying at the Four Seasons hotel directly across the street from the blast site. Macron was not wounded during the attack, and has not canceled his state visit to Syria. Analyst Comment: This complex attack was very likely targeting Macron himself, or at least trying to get as close as possible to cause diplomatic trouble. Throughout the region, it's extremely common for terror groups to conduct attacks while foreign dignitaries are visiting, so as to embarrass their political leadership. Ukraine: Yesterday one of the lead suspects in the Monaco bombing case was found dead. Anastasiia Berezovska was the individual suspected of dropping off the bomb at the residence of Vadym Yermolaiev a few weeks ago. Berezovska was found at an undisclosed location in Ukraine with multiple gunshots to the head. After her death was discovered, an actively-serving member of the Intelligence Directorate of the Ukrainian MoD confessed to her murder. Analyst Comment: Very clearly, someone is tying up the loose ends in this case, and doing so very publicly to send a message. Now that the lead suspect in the bombing case is dead, the entire affair is tidied up neatly, and no further investigation can be undertaken regarding who Berezovska was working for. -HomeFront- Washington D.C. - Concerns are growing regarding the status of Senator Mitch McConnell, who has been hospitalized for several weeks. On June 14th, McConnell was found unconscious on the floor of his home in Capitol Hill after suffering an apparent heart attack. CPR was performed at the scene, and he was transported to a hospital. Apart from those initial details, there is currently no indication of his status beyond unconfirmed rumor. Analyst Comment: McConnell's health has been extremely concerning over the past few years, with several viral media incidents indicating that he is not well. In this case, three days after his heart attack, his wife Elaine Chao traveled to China to meet with Chinese Vice President Han Zheng. As a result of the timing of this visit, and the extreme secrecy surrounding the health of a man who has been of ailing health for years, concerns are growing regarding McConnell's status. In Kentucky, election law regarding position appointments has recently changed. Instead of the Governor being able to make an appointment for the seat, if a Senator dies in office, a special election is now mandatory. As such if McConnell passes away before the election, a special election would have to be held to fill the vacancy of only a couple of months, before the general election in November. However, the timing matters. If a Kentucky Senator dies in office (and thus vacates the seat) less than 63 days before the election, a special election would probably not be required and the normal election goes on. In this case, McConnell is not running again this year but the law regarding his seat still applies, so he must remain alive until September 1st, in order to prevent a special election which would allow a third-party candidate to run for his seat.

In any case, due to the death of an American, the Indonesian military is likely to crack down hard on this region over the next few weeks, in order to prevent rebel groups from capitalizing on their power-projection operations. Back in April, the United States signed a non-binding "defensive cooperation partnership" with Indonesia as Washington sought to increase relations by way of undermining Chinese expansion in the region. On April 13th of this year, one day before the defense pact was signed, Indonesian media reported that their nation was discussing (or had already agreed to) allowing American military access to their airspace. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 6, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: CHINA AND NORTH KOREA CONDUCT MISSILE TESTS IN PACIFIC. RUSSIA AND UKRAINE CONDUCT MAJOR TARGETING EFFORTS. INDONESIAN MILITARY RECOVERS REMAINS OF AMERICAN PILOT KILLED IN AMBUSH OVER THE WEEKEND.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Far East: Multiple missile tests were reported over the weekend, with both North Korea and China conducting tests of long-range munitions. North Korea tested a total of 12x cruise missiles from the KANG KON, the Choe Hyon-class Destroyer which is the newest addition to the Korean People's Navy. In China, a submarine-launched ballistic missile test was carried out at an undisclosed location in the Pacific, marking the first test of a SLBM by China in several years. Europe: The war in Ukraine escalated over the weekend as Russia renewed strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. On Saturday, Ukrainian forces conducted more long-range drone attacks on Russian oil depots, most notably the Ust-Luga oil terminal in St. Petersburg. Separately, a different series of drone attacks struck various refineries in the Omsk region, deep within Russia. In response, Russia has conducted several strikes throughout Kiev, including the Vishnyovoye fuel depot on the southwestern outskirts of Kiev, which resulted in an extremely large fire. NASA's space-based fire detection sensors noted one very large fire at this fuel depot, along with a few smaller fires throughout the city that are anomalies from normal heat signatures in the region. In addition to the fuel depot, an ammo dump was co-located with this facility, which was used to store American tank rounds which contained depleted uranium penetrators, along with components for the production of cluster munitions which also contained depleted uranium. Analyst Comment: Depleted uranium tank rounds are about 40% less radioactive than raw uranium that is mined out of the ground, so the radiological nature of this ammunition is not normally a concern. However, this risk changes substantially if it's on fire as the smoke produced by burning uranium does indeed present a radiological hazard, thus the evacuations. This ammunition storage area was located in a densely populated residential area, with the resulting fires prompting the evacuation of roughly 600x residents. Indonesia: Over the weekend, Indonesian troops conducted an operation to recover the remains of an American civilian pilot who was killed by armed rebels in a remote town high in the mountains southeast of Wamena on the island of West Papua. Nicholas F. Goselin was a bush pilot flying supplies and materiel into Balinggama Airstrip when he was ambushed last Thursday. The attack was carried out by the West Papua Liberation Army (TPNPB), a separatist movement that has been seeking independence from Indonesia for a few decades. The rebels allowed Goselin to land, before murdering him on the airstrip and burning his aircraft. At the time of the ambush, a total of 7x passengers (local Indonesian villagers) were allegedly onboard the aircraft and their status is unknown. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: According to the armed rebels in Indonesia, the reason for the murder is due to Goselin allegedly shuttling Indonesian special forces into the region to fight the rebels. An American bush pilot landing at sketchy airstrips, alone, in the middle of a war-torn region high in the mountains is not a particularly safe career choice, and it's not clear as to what prompted the rebels to conduct this attack. The rebel group has claimed that they warned the aircraft not to land, but the airline that Goselin was flying for (PT AMA) made no mention of acknowledging any no-fly zones declared by armed groups.

This week's intel update is out! This week we reflect on the events developing around the world, from wars to disasters, as well as remind ourselves about what this grand national experiment is all about. Happy Independence Day to all, and may we have a prosperous and free future ahead! https://youtu.be/jpybqdcV3j0

//The Wire//1800Z July 3, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: AYATOLLAH KHAMENEI'S FUNERAL BEGINS IN TEHRAN. IMMOLATION INCIDENT REPORTED IN NEW YORK. DHS REPORTS CYBERATTACK AFFECTING INFORMATION EXCHANGE NETWORK.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Iran: This week, the official state funeral for Ayatollah Khamenei began, which has drawn large crowds to Tehran. Khamenei's remains will lie in state in Tehran for three days, before a funeral procession is carried out through the streets of Tehran. On July 7, the body is scheduled to be transported to the city of Qom, before various ceremonies are carried out and he's finally buried in his hometown of Mashhad. Analyst Comment: As nearly all of the upper echelons of Iran's political leadership will be participating in some of these ceremonies, concerns are growing that the Israelis will attempt another series of decapitation strikes during the funeral. Striking the Ayatollah's coffin during the funeral procession just to send a message would also be right up the IDF's alley, but the question remains as to whether the IDF can even manage such an operation so far into Iran at this point. This possibility is pure speculation, however due to the potential for a very serious conflagration to occur once again, this would be worth keeping an eye on for the next few days. On a related note, a surge of several tankers was observed in the Strait of Hormuz, taking advantage of the southern Omani route while the Ayatollah's funeral is ongoing. These vessels were probably gambling on the Iranians not wanting to carry out strikes during a period of mourning, while a lot of the senior decision makers are occupied with traveling to Tehran for the funeral. This clever trick is probably a one-time thing, as the Iranians have demonstrated in the past that they will allow this for a couple of days, before they start striking vessels again. -HomeFront- New York: Yesterday evening an immolation incident was reported at the United Nations building, after a protester set himself on fire during a livestream at the main entrance on United Nations Plaza. The individual has been identified as Lobga Rangzen, an activist affiliated with the Tibetan independence movement. Rangzen was eventually extinguished by building security, but later died at an area hospital. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Yesterday, the Department of Homeland Security announced an investigation into an alleged breach and/or cyberattack on their Homeland Security Information Network, an information sharing network for coordinating between various federal agencies. The breach reportedly involved an older unclassified computer system, and was only discovered recently after occurring back in May. This is a developing story at the time of this report, and so far the main primary sources of this breach are two unidentified whistleblowers who leaked the story to the mainstream media. Following this leak, the DHS quietly confirmed that the breach did take place, but no further comment has been made regarding the national security implications of this incident, or who the culprit was. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

North Carolina: Following the release of court documents yesterday, details have come to light pertaining to a probable attempted terror attack that took place on Sunday in High Point. On Sunday, a member of the security team spotted a suspicious individual approaching Wesley Memorial Methodist Church during the morning services. One suspect arrived in the church parking lot wearing body armor and camouflaged clothing, prompting the attention of a member of the church security staff. Upon approaching the individual, the security guard questioned the suspect, who stated that he was a police officer. As the security team member was an off-duty police officer himself, he instantly knew that the man was lying, and immediately took the man into custody. After more authorities arrived on scene, a search of the suspect's vehicle revealed two flamethrowers, two crossbows, a few hundred rounds of ammunition (unknown type), as well as a small collection of narcotics. The suspect has been identified as William S. Milliken III, a native of Thomasville. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Regarding the potential church terrorism incident, no motive or explanation for the suspicious incident was noted, however incidents like this are extremely common in the world of counterterrorism. Individuals determined to carry out acts of terrorism are frequently known to conduct "dry runs" before the actual attack, so as to both work out the final logistics of their plan, but also to get up the gumption to follow through with the attack. It is not clear as to if this individual had any connection to the church, or had visited the church beforehand. However, arriving exactly during services on Sunday in a full tactical loadout, as primitive as it was, is not something that normally indicates a dry run. Though it is speculation, it's possible that the suspect did not know that the church had security on site, or that the one responder would have been as on-the-ball as he was. Concerning motive, nothing has been disclosed. A would-be assailant who shows up to a terrorist attack with 500x rounds of ammunition but no firearm is an interesting data point, and the choice of crossbows and flamethrowers as an attack vector indicates that a proper firearm probably could not be procured. More details may come to light as this case progresses, but even based on the initial details, this is another reminder for religious institutions to remain vigilant and report any suspicious observations to authorities. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 2, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING INCIDENT REPORTED IN THAILAND. POTENTIAL TERROR ATTACK THWARTED IN NORTH CAROLINA. GOVERNOR WALZ PARDONS LAOTIAN MIGRANT CONVICTED OF ABUSE, COMPLICATING DEPORTATION. US NAVY HELICOPTER CRASHES IN ARABIAN SEA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Thailand: This morning a vehicle ramming incident was reported in the remote province of Mukdahan, after one individual rammed a vehicle into a group of Buddhist monks who had just departed on a pilgrimage walk on a remote road. A total of 9x monks were killed during the incident, and an unknown number of others wounded. Analyst Comment: The suspect in this case has not been identified, but has been noted as being an 11-year-old child. As a result it's not clear as to if this is genuinely a deliberate action or not. Initially, eyewitness statements claimed it was a deliberate attack, but other eyewitnesses state that the boy was driving too fast and lost control of the vehicle. More generally, attacks on Buddhists on pilgrimage are comparatively rare, but there has been an ongoing conflict to the south of the incident site which has been referred to as the Malay-Muslim Insurgency, which has taken the form of guerilla warfare carried out between factions of Buddhists and Muslims. In Thailand, something as simple as an unrelated child's mistake (though horribly tragic) can always stir up tensions in an already tense region, so this might be something to be aware of for later on. Middle East: Yesterday afternoon the Pentagon announced an aviation incident which involved an MH-60 Sea Hawk helicopter from the USS GEORGE H.W. BUSH CSG making an emergency landing feet-wet in the Arabian Sea. Three of the four crew members of the aircraft were rescued immediately after the crash, however the fourth crewmember remains missing. Analyst Comment: CENTCOM has not confirmed the cause of the incident, however the crash is not believed to be the result of combat damage. The Iranians have not claimed to have targeted a helicopter, nor have there been any engagements over the past 24 hours in the region. -HomeFront- Minnesota: Gov. Tim Walz pardoned Tou Lue Vang, a Laotian man who had been convicted of crimes against children years ago. Vang had been engaging in the traditional Laotian practice of taking an unwilling child bride, and was subsequently arrested and given a deportation order back in 2006. He took a plea deal which allowed him avoid prison completely, and for twenty years has been fighting his deportation case. Yesterday, Gov. Walz approved his pardon request roughly a week before his schedule deportation. Analyst Comment: It is unclear as to why a state pardon would have any bearing whatsoever with federal immigration law, but the statements made by Acting DHS Assistant Secretary Lauren Bis suggest that the DHS is not keen to press the issue at the federal level. The DHS press release on this case expressed outrage, but no action to actually continue following through on the deportation.

Washburn's affiliation with DAMPL is far more interesting as this organization has roughly 150-200 members and is mostly known for conducting activities similar to that of the more famous Palestine Action movement. Groups like this tend to branch off into endless splinter cells of splinter cells (usually due to infighting) and this has been the case for this group for some time. Washburn was allegedly a leader of one of the DAMPL cells operating in the Rochester area, which are mostly known for low-level vandalism incidents and more benign protest activity. Last year however, the Boston cell of this group began escalating their operations to include firebombings, with the most recent high-profile attack being a series of IED and incendiary attacks throughout Massachusetts last summer. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z July 1, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: WOMAN ARRESTED IN NEW YORK FOR PROVIDING MATERIEL AID TO TERRORIST GROUP. SUPREME COURT REJECTS BIRTHRIGHT CITIZENSHIP CHALLENGE. RECOVERY EFFORTS IN VENEZUELA SLOWLY CONTINUE AMID LOGISTICAL CHALLENGES.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Venezuela: Rescue and recovery efforts have been complicated by growing logistical problems. Before the earthquakes, fuel shortages were extremely common throughout the country, and now the already-strained logistical infrastructure has resulted in many fuel shortages around the country. This has expanded to the point that heavy machinery needed to extract victims is simply not available due to not having enough fuel. Heavy rains which have swept through the disaster zone over the past few days have also presented challenges, and the work in most of the hardest hit areas is slow going. As of this morning, the official death toll is confirmed at 1,943 fatalities, 10,500 injured, and roughly 43,000 persons still missing. Middle East: The situation remains fairly stagnant since the targeting flared up last weekend. Diplomatic talks in Doha have not really yielded any solid agreements yet, though negotiations are ongoing. Traffic in the Strait of Hormuz remains steady, albeit at lower levels than before the war. -HomeFront- Pennsylvania: Yesterday a major train derailment was reported in Bucks County, which resulted in 16x train cars jumping the tracks near the station in Bensalem. The incident initially resulted in an evacuation of the immediate area around the incident site, due to a few cars containing HAZMAT or potentially toxic substances. The evacuation order was rescinded once an inspection confirmed that none of the tanks had leaked. The investigation into the derailment is underway, and no indication of what caused the incident has been disclosed yet. Washington D.C. - Yesterday the US Supreme Court rejected President Trump's use of executive order to challenge birthright citizenship. The court affirmed that any child born on American soil will be granted citizenship, even if the parents are illegally in the US or are participating in the 'birth tourism' enterprises in the Mariana Islands and Hawaii. New York: The DoJ announced the indictment of a leader of a local Direct Action Movement for Palestinian Liberation (DAMPL) organization, an offshoot entity that was created to provide materiel aid to the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) group in Gaza. Catherine Beth Washburn was arrested after a months-long investigation into the communications between herself and a PIJ fighter in the Middle East. Washburn allegedly sent roughly $30k worth of cryptocurrency to this individual, for purposes of fundraising for future attacks. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: Despite the media reporting, PIJ is not an offshoot of Hamas, they are completely different groups. PIJ is a comparatively little-known paramilitary organization in Gaza, which has not really been doing much since their leader was killed some time ago. One interesting detail of the case in New York is the photo of two hand grenades which was provided in the indictment. The devices do not conform to any known style of hand grenade, and appear to be locally-produced copies of American M61 grenades, which indicates this photo was probably taken either in Gaza or somewhere in the Middle East. The indictment made no mention of these grenades actually being in Washburn's possession, which helps clarify that this is not a photo of any evidence recovered in the United States.

Analyst Comments: The context and history of the assassination attempt in Monaco is quite significant. Vadym Yermolaiev was/is a Ukrainian businessman who had a falling out with Zelensky and was sanctioned by the Ukrainian government a few years ago for his business dealings with Russia. After the sanctions, Yermolaiev fled Ukraine before settling in Monaco. Years ago, Yermolaiev was one of the wealthiest individuals in Europe, with most of his money originating from illegal activities such as running scam call centers in Ukraine, as well as construction companies and real estate ventures in the now-occupied areas of eastern Ukraine. Yermolaiev allegedly rebuffed Zelensky's attempts to nationalize his construction empire for the war, and apparently almost paid dearly for it. This attack is extremely shocking for the small city-state of Monaco, where crime is largely nonexistent, much less targeted assassinations. Considering that all signs point to Ukraine being the culprit for this assassination attempt, it will be interesting to see what the response to this attack will be. Monaco is a very small kingdom which serves mostly as a vacation spot for Europe's most powerful individuals, and Ukraine does not appear to realize the thin ice they are treading on by bringing the war to Europe's version of Martha's Vineyard. This attack will not go unnoticed by the global elite, which has been exclusively funding the Ukrainian war for the reasons of keeping the combat confined to the Donbas. If Zelensky is going to end up bringing the explosions to the finer parts of Europe anyway, purely for reasons of settling personal grievances, this might not work out in Ukraine's favor. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//1400Z June 30, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: UKRAINIAN OLIGARCH TARGET OF ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT IN MONACO. INMATES TAKE OVER JAIL IN NORTH CAROLINA.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Monaco: Yesterday afternoon an IED was detonated at a residential apartment building as part of an apparent targeted assassination attempt. One attacker deposited a backpack with the explosive device at the entrance to the building, and waited several minutes for the target to arrive. As the target passed near the backpack, the assailant remotely detonated the IED, before fleeing on foot across the border just a few feet away, into France. Several people were wounded during the attack, with the main target being Vadym Yermolaiev (a Ukrainian businessman). No one was killed, but Yermolaiev was hit by shrapnel and burns, and his wife reportedly suffered a bilateral amputation of the legs. Their son was also seriously wounded by shrapnel. Iran: Overnight, Iranian forces claimed to have killed a clandestine team that had infiltrated the border region. Iranian media claims that the entire 6 man team was killed during the engagement, and that four of the bodies have been recovered. No photos of the alleged team have been provided, however the Iranians claim that their equipment indicated they were attempting to carry out sabotage operations. Analyst Comment: Very few details have been provided on this incident, but if the team was American the Iranians surely would have televised every detail of the incident. Speculating as to the origin of the alleged attackers, they could have been Kurdish militiamen, but until photos are provided there's no verifying any of these details. However, the most interesting detail is that the Iranians claim that the firefight took place between Piran Shahr and Mahabad, which is deep inside Iranian territory and indicates that there might be more to this engagement than meets the eye. Qatar: The Ministry of Transportation has advised the temporary halt to all civil maritime activities in their waters until further notice. This comes after yesterday's death of a citizen, who was found deceased on their private vessel after the Iranian/American targeting efforts over the weekend. Analyst Comment: As it turns out, this death might have been the result of an American munition, or falling shrapnel from some sort of engagement. The Qataris are being very vague about this suspicious death, which would be expected if the US was the cause of it, since the American diplomatic team arrived in Doha for negotiations this morning. The Qataris probably don't want to cause a scene and upset the American delegation, and as a result are downplaying what exactly caused the death of one of their citizens. -HomeFront- North Carolina: Yesterday morning a large scale riot was reported at the Bertie-Martin Regional Detention Center. A total of 88x inmates overpowered two of the three guards that were on duty for the night shift, and took control of the facility. These two guards were held hostage throughout the day, with groups of prisoners being released from the facility by the group of inmates which started the takeover incident. By last night, authorities had regained control of the jail, and the situation was resolved. All 88x inmates have been accounted for, and everyone has been shuffled and transferred to other detention facilities as the investigation into the incident continues. Analyst Comment: For facilities like this, having only three guards on the night shift is surprisingly common, though after this incident the security posture at this (and other similar facilities) is likely to be increased. -----END TEARLINE-----

These hardships have in turn lead to the population turning their anger toward government almost immediately after the dust settled, and the US operation to capture Maduro earlier this year has complicated the situation significantly. For instance, one of the government figures who is involved in disaster aid is Minister of the Interior Diosdado Cabello (Rondón), who has been observed allegedly hindering disaster aid. For context, Cabello is currently wanted by the United States, and has a $25 million bounty on his head, which is still active. Yet, American rescue agencies on the ground are being given the runaround by him and his staff. Even the Venezuelan politicians hand-picked by the White House to lead in Maduro's absence are having trouble. Delcy Rodríguez, the individual who became President after the United States captured Maduro, was not very popular even before the earthquakes and was simply the only leader that seemed like a feasible puppet for the United States to control in the wake of the Venezuelan conflict. Managing the current disaster would be a challenge for anyone, but in this case Rodríguez is new on the job and the government was already barely functioning due to the political infighting that always occurs when a dictator is suddenly removed from the equation. Rodríguez also showing up to talk to impoverished disaster victims while wearing luxury clothing that costs more than the average yearly salary for most Venezuelans did not do her any favors either. In the western world, this would be considered a political gaffe, or something that is generally in poor taste considering that the victims have lost everything they have. But in South America, this is the kind of misstep that usually results in more discontent than one might think. As a result, the situation is tenuous all around; political infighting, corruption, and power-plays are all on the table while tens of thousands of victims attempt to dig through the rubble, and try to figure out what to do next. Analyst: S2A1 Research: https://publish.obsidian.md/s2underground Disclaimer: No LLMs were used in the writing of this report. //END REPORT//

//The Wire//2300Z June 29, 2026// //ROUTINE// //BLUF: VEHICLE RAMMING ATTACK REPORTED IN LONDON. USA AND IRAN AGREE TO RESTART CEASEFIRE AFTER WEEKEND TARGETING EFFORTS. LEBANON INVASION CONTINUES. MASS SHOOTING REPORTED IN GERMANY. DISASTER AID TO VENEZUELA RAMPS UP AMID LOCAL TENSIONS.//  -----BEGIN TEARLINE----- -International Events- Persian Gulf: Over the weekend, the war continued as both Iran and the United States conducted mutual targeting efforts after the stock market closed on Friday. Several strikes were reported within Iran, along with the Iranian targeting of another merchant vessel on Saturday. Sunday morning, Qatar stated that a small merchant vessel was struck by an Iranian munition somewhere off their coastline, which resulted in one fatality. After these tit-for-tat targeting efforts, the U.S. and Iran have allegedly agreed that the ceasefire is back on. Lebanon: Following the signing of the agreement between the U.S./Israel and the Lebanese government, the IDF's invasion has continued within southern Lebanon. Lebanese citizens have continued fleeing the city of Nabatiyeh, with airstrikes being reported all along the eastern front over the past few days. United Kingdom: On Saturday a vehicle ramming attack was reported in London after a Somalian man rammed his vehicle into a crowd of people outside a row of shops on The Broadway. A total of five people were wounded during the attack, and the suspect has been identified as Timir Ahmed Mohamed. He has been charged with multiple counts of attempted murder. Germany: This morning a mass shooting was reported in Stade, a small city in northern Germany west of Hamburg. At least one gunman conducted a small arms attack on Dankersstraße, in the residential sector of the town. A total of 5x people were killed during the attack, and the assailant was reportedly detained at the scene. In addition to the shooter, one other individual was also arrested at the scene. No further details have been provided, and the scene remains heavily locked down. Venezuela: Earthquake rescue and recovery efforts continue as the casualty count rises. Officially the death toll stands at over 1,719 confirmed fatalities, with tens of thousands of people either injured or displaced after their homes were destroyed. Several aftershocks with an estimated magnitude of M5.0 struck the disaster zone since the two main earthquakes devastated the region. This resulted in a few more building collapses, and has made rescue operations extremely dangerous for all involved. Analyst Comment: Concerning the American rescue efforts, U.S. Marines from Combat Logistics Battalion 8, Medium Tiltrotor Squadron (VMM) 365, and the 24th Marine Expeditionary Unit were on the ground immediately after the earthquakes, delivering aid and logistics as part of the American aid effort. The priority at the moment is the repair of Simón Bolívar Airport in Catia La Mar and Francisco De Miranda Airport in Caracas, both of which suffered significant damage which will need to be repaired for more heavy machinery and disaster aid to be flown in. -----END TEARLINE----- Analyst Comments: In Venezuela, local corruption complaints have also begun to manifest, which has complicated rescue and recovery efforts. Uniformed Bolivarian soldiers have allegedly been observed looting from collapsed buildings, and many local politicians and military leaders have also been accused of hindering recovery efforts so as to extract bribes. Corruption throughout South America is extremely engrained throughout all levels of governance and society, and as a result even the most devastating disasters ever seen also attract those seeking to capitalize on the chaos. This hits especially hard due to the sheer scale of the disaster, which has left many communities to fend for themselves. Disasters almost always bring out the very best and the very worst of society, and Venezuela was already struggling beforehand.

This week's intel update is out! From floods and earthquakes, to flesh-eating larvae and ballistic missiles, it's been a rather odd week of events around the world. The next week will be rather tenuous (as always) as the hot-ceasefire in the Middle East continues to result in mutual targeting efforts on all sides, even as peace negotiations continue. Check it out here: https://youtu.be/RVeusHMe-P8